The obvious correct strategy for Christina/Alicia in Survivor Speculation Forum

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The obvious correct strategy for Christina/Alicia

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Hardcore Holly	The obvious correct strategy for Christina/Alicia	Lead	[-]
Posts: 1 04/19/12 10:25 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	was to align with the three men and blindside Kim with her idol. Then take out the next strongest female, which is Chelsea. Now they are sitting at the F7 and can re-group the female alliance to take out the 3 men in succession and get to the F4. But, hold on, they can secretly work a F3 deal with Tarzan to take out Sabrina/Kat in 5th/4th place respectively once they get to F5. Now those two are sitting in the finals with a Goat and their strategic gameplay was so good it would have to garner some respect from the jury. They played the game as hard as possible and can say they easily outwitted the other players. This strategy is easier said than done, but what else do they have to think about out there on the island? It's a simple math/chess strategy, not rocket science.
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nadremllov		#1	[-]
Posts: 371 04/20/12 01:46 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	yeah, it is pretty pathetic how no one is thinking anything like that. The old school Survivor players are probably embarassed and punching the screen lol
Jedijake		#2	[-]
Posts: 7561 04/20/12 05:02 AM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	They have no idea Kim has the idol so there would be no reason to flush it. Doing anything before the final 7 is dumb right now. Wait until the final 7. Then convince Kat, who is #4 to join them and Tarzan to take out Kim, Chelsea, and Sabrina, Tarzan moves from #7 to #4. Christina, Alicia, Kat move from #'s 6, 5, and 4 respectively all to the final 4. From our perspective that makes the most sense. However, Alicia and Kat are likely under the assumption that they have a shot at the final 3 now, and probably do.
Not		#3	[-]
Posts: 338 04/20/12 05:54 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Christina can't count on anyone and has no chance of winning and she knows this, so she's playing the best game possible under the circumstances.
Scrudam		#4	[-]
Posts: 414 04/20/12 12:05 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hardcore Holly wrote: was to align with the three men and blindside Kim with her idol. Then take out the next strongest female, which is Chelsea. Now they are sitting at the F7 and can re-group the female alliance to take out the 3 men in succession and get to the F4. But, hold on, they can secretly work a F3 deal with Tarzan to take out Sabrina/Kat in 5th/4th place respectively once they get to F5. Now those two are sitting in the finals with a Goat and their strategic gameplay was so good it would have to garner some respect from the jury. They played the game as hard as possible and can say they easily outwitted the other players. This strategy is easier said than done, but what else do they have to think about out there on the island? It's a simple math/chess strategy, not rocket science. Yes, take out Kim and Chelsea, the most likely to beat Troy in IC's and hand Troy one million, great move like the dumb Cochran who handed an Upolu member the money by flipping at the wrong time. Yes it would make better tv, but it makes no sense for Alicia and Christina logically and physically, and what if everyone turns on them after for their betraying, a guy slips in and wins the game ala Vanuatu, so the mindset at least to me is that they want to win, but at least trying to make a girl win if they don'tand not hand over the numbers advantage as the dumb men did. Like Jedi said, F7 with Kat is the best time to flip, but they have no clue Kim has an idol and everyone seems to like Kim, so Im hoping Troy clearly tells everyone Kim will win the million if she reaches there forcing them to attempt to vote out Kim either before or after he is gone, the smarts one's whoever they are will listen and most likely be targeted by Kim, the dumb one's will follow Kim to their doom. With Troy targeting Kim twice, she has a huge target on her back as well, so who knows, maybe she saves her skin with her idol and regain control with II wins.
Hardcore Holly		#5	[-]
Posts: 1 04/20/12 01:06 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	^^ your strategy of waiting to F7 isn't as good because it's dependent on another player (Kat) as opposed to taking the game into their own hands right now. Kat has no strategic reason to flip at the F7 because she already has a F4 alliance with the other girls and no way of knowing that she's going to be the target at F4. What's to stop Alicia/Christina from taking Tarzan to the F3 over her? And even if they do take her to the F3 she probably won't win after betraying Kim/Chelsea/Sab so blatantly. That's three jury votes out the window for her. If Alicia/Christina took out Kim and Chelsea before Leif and then tried to regroup the girls at F7 it would have worked. Yes Sab/Kat would hate them after getting screwed over but they would certainly join back up with them to go to the F4 instead of being picked off in 7th/6th place. It's the same thing Rob C did to Jenna/Heidi on S6. First he screwed them over but then they were willing to re-align with him to get rid of Christy because (a) it would save their skin for the time being, and (b) it was their only strategic option. Look, it's a somewhat risky plan but you need to make bold moves to win survivor. Alicia/Christina had the chance to take this game by storm and become legendary players but they failed to take their big opportunity and now will most likely suffer a losing fate.
juicyfruit		#6	[-]
Posts: 2516 04/20/12 01:09 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	^ Exactly, they are playing a losing game right now, because neither girl can win with the ones that are left. They needed to do something to prove that they have some strategic brains and flipping to take out one of the stronger women would have proved that they are not totally useless.
Scrudam		#7	[-]
Posts: 414 04/20/12 01:31 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Its a lose-lose situation. They can't win no matter what they do. If they make that big strategic move to hand the men the numbers advantage, then they would be respected just as Cochran was respected for his idiotic big move. Yes this was the best time to take out Kim, but also the best time to alienate themselves from the other women and possibly give a man the victory. Alicia is weighing her options while Christina is waiting like a sitting duck, Alicia has no need to flip this early, but the writing has been on the wall for Christina since Day 3 when she was suppose to be the first gone. Christina should have made a move, but how does moving from maybe 6th to surely 5th or 4th, helps her. Moving forward with an IC threat like Troy makes no sense. If they were to flip, they would need another girl to have their backs after the flip and for that person to join their final 3. If a man slips into the F3 he wins, it doesn't matter if the swing votes to knock out other threats were Alicia and Christina they still won't be respected enough to win. And most certainly the women would have gunned for them later on even if they returned to the women to get Troy out after Kim, the other women left would have just eliminated them later on for them becoming threats to win. All in all the best time for them to make their move is next tribal if Troy wins II, or d next one with Tarzan being left alone or if Troy wins II again.
Scrudam		#8	[-]
Posts: 414 04/20/12 01:36 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	They should already be looking for this swing person, but who knows what sub-alliances they think they have within the female alliance, Alicia is close to Kat and Kim for sure, so she has reason to believe she is F3 maybe, but like you said they should take things into their own hands. F9 was not the time to do so, it would have only made everyone want to get Alicia and Christina out later on or a guy would have sneaked in for the win. It was too risky and banking on a lot of things to happen which they would not be able to control, great tv yes, great move yes, but dumb for the long term.
survivorgirl22		#9	[-]
Posts: 8169 04/20/12 01:39 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	People forget,they merged at 6-6.The obvious move and what most sucksters predicted would happen at the merge ep is that the guys would try to flip either Alicia/Christina or both.Instead,those are the girls they targeted as well as the fact they voted out 2 men.
Hardcore Holly		#10	[-]
Posts: 1 04/20/12 01:41 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Well I hope you're right because I find the mysterious relationship between Alicia/Christina oddly fascinating and I want to see them make the F3 together. I don't think that Tarzan would win if he makes the F3 solely because of his gender. He was very rude to Jonas, Michael thought he was an idiot, he voted for Leif, etc. My ideal F3 is Alicia/Christina/Chelsea but I don't see how that can happen at this point. I really want to see some big moves and alliance members trying to blindside each other.
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Scrudam		#11	[-]
Posts: 414 04/20/12 01:56 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hardcore Holly wrote: Well I hope you're right because I find the mysterious relationship between Alicia/Christina oddly fascinating and I want to see them make the F3 together. I don't think that Tarzan would win if he makes the F3 solely because of his gender. He was very rude to Jonas, Michael thought he was an idiot, he voted for Leif, etc. My ideal F3 is Alicia/Christina/Chelsea but I don't see how that can happen at this point. I really want to see some big moves and alliance members trying to blindside each other. Im hoping for a big move as well, but for me the F3 that will make this season way more exciting is Alicia/Christina/Kat or Tarzan. I put Kat as first priority as I think if any guy sneaks in, his strategy would be deemed better than the girls. I only see Chelsea and maybe Jonas not voting for Tarzan. If they go to the end with Chelsea, Chelsea wins most probably, her edit fits the best of these three. Anyone one of those girls could win according to their jury speech. But how they reach there would be a rocky road as they need to beat Troy/Kim/Chelsea in at least one II to get all three out either by flipping between two alliances or getting everyone unified to take out the next biggest threat which would not happen as the next biggest physical threat would know that they are next, i.e Sabrina. Or Sabrina could go along knowing that she has a greater chance of winning II with Chelsea/Kim/Troy gone and if she reaches the end she wins automatically.
Jedijake		#12	[-]
Posts: 7561 04/20/12 02:49 PM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	There are always people with a "I'm going to get in trouble if I speak up" mindset. We see it at work, in the real world, etc. It's a fear of going against the norm. I don't think Alicia has that mindset, but she IS close to Kim (not sure about Chelsea because we've never really seen them interact except in episode 1). Christina does NOT seem like the kind of person who makes waves and conspires. She's too afraid. Kat's the same way. There's a subtle mind control that some people are able to put on others. Kim has that...but she has that with skills. She puts others at ease. In Survivor you get rewarded for this often innate ability. Sometimes it's just a matter of luck because others around you fall into the trap. But that's life.
bryanpasa		#13	[-]
Posts: 10108 04/21/12 08:42 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	^ Exactly. If I were Kat, I'd just go along with the flaw and be cute ~ maybe that gets me an All-Stars to establish my legend <3 ETA: !!!9000TH POST FOR KATG.ODDESS!!!
Jedijake		#14	[-]
Posts: 7561 04/21/12 10:29 AM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	We're now starting to see signs and hints that Sabrina is making her own noose. She may be the one who becomes untrustworthy and, just like Brian got rid of both Ted and Helen, Kim/Chelsea may decide that Sabrina should go sooner than originally planned. And THAT's what people like Kat and Alicia should hope for and work with.
panurge46		#15	[-]
Posts: 3178 04/21/12 03:47 PM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	So, you are suggesting that Alicia moves from the solid F5 position she had with the women to a F5 where the women would be outnumbered 3-2? Real smart!!! Even if it had worked, who would vote for Alicia or Christina? None of the betrayed women and none of the men either. And you think it would be possible to regroup the women after that? Someone needs to learn about human nature. I think you have to be a fan of Troyzan to want that dumb move to happen because a flip at this time would have handed him the money. Like Jedijake said, the right time will be F7 after Troy is gone. He was right, they could have 4 people against the big 3 of Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina. 4 makes majority at F7, not F9.
Scrudam		#16	[-]
Posts: 414 04/21/12 04:12 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	panurge46 wrote: So, you are suggesting that Alicia moves from the solid F5 position she had with the women to a F5 where the women would be outnumbered 3-2? Real smart!!! Even if it had worked, who would vote for Alicia or Christina? None of the betrayed women and none of the men either. And you think it would be possible to regroup the women after that? Someone needs to learn about human nature. I think you have to be a fan of Troyzan to want that dumb move to happen because a flip at this time would have handed him the money. Like Jedijake said, the right time will be F7 after Troy is gone. He was right, they could have 4 people against the big 3 of Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina. 4 makes majority at F7, not F9. Not saying this happens, but it would make damn good tv. And glad to see that you agree with Jedi and I, love your analysis for episode 10 as well, Alicia is being presented as Kim's next doubt besides for Troyzan and that shows Alicia is thinking but sadly Alicia is not very good of making good strategic moves, she just talks a lot about it.Alicia could have been ignored like Christina, but it seems the editors are setting up a showdown of Alicia vs Kim which I think Kim will win.
Hardcore Holly		#17	[-]
Posts: 1 04/21/12 05:34 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	panurge46 wrote: So, you are suggesting that Alicia moves from the solid F5 position she had with the women to a F5 where the women would be outnumbered 3-2? Real smart!!! Even if it had worked, who would vote for Alicia or Christina? None of the betrayed women and none of the men either. And you think it would be possible to regroup the women after that? Someone needs to learn about human nature. I think you have to be a fan of Troyzan to want that dumb move to happen because a flip at this time would have handed him the money. Like Jedijake said, the right time will be F7 after Troy is gone. He was right, they could have 4 people against the big 3 of Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina. 4 makes majority at F7, not F9. Well, you have to take a look at the people you're playing with and try to understand what their nature is like. Are they capable of understanding ANY logic? Unless Sab/Kim/Chelsea/Kat are completely braindead, they should be able to see why Christina/Alicia would flip on the female alliance when they are sitting in 6th/5th place respectively. The betrayal would be foolish ONLY if they actually planned on going to the F5 with 3 men vs 2 women, but obviously they have a more complex long term plan which significantly advances their standing in the game. Of course this strategy is dependent on Sab/Kat being smart enough to understand simple math/logic and separate their emotions from good gameplay. Do you really think that Sab/Kat would sabotage their own games and a better chance to win the million just to get revenge on Christina/Alicia for their initial betrayal? I'm sorry but Jenna/Heidi were very spiteful people on Amazon (Jenna started a loud argument and called Rob a disgusting snake/slimeball) and even those two were willing to re-join Rob C to take out Christy, for self preservation and due to lack of options. If Alicia/Christina took out Kim at F9 and Chelsea at F8 then why on earth would the 4 girls not re-group to take out the men? Even if Sab/Kat wanted revenge on Alicia (especially her, since Christina was a known outsider from day 1) would they want turn the tables on their betrayers and go to the F5 with the 3 men just to get revenge, or take the much better F4 deal? Don't forget that of the remaining players, Tarzan is closest with Alicia and would choose to go to the F3 with her over Sab/Kat, so I don't think Sab/Kat could get him to flip on Christina/Alicia at the F5. Playing the strategy game like this to get to the F3 would either work against you (Rob Mariano/Russell Hantz level hate from jury) or help you win the game (Todd Herzog/Rob Mariano level respect from the jury). Don't you think in this case the jurors would be amazed at how well Alicia/Christina played the strategic game? It would be the best disloyal strategic game played since Rob Cesternino, and he would have won the million against pretty much any F2 opponent in Amazon. I think people would be hurt but at the same time respect that Alicia/Christina were considered weak afterthoughts (sitting ducks, pawns) and they went on to completely dominate the endgame. Would anyone really vote for a goat like Tarzan? I'd give Alicia or Christina my vote, that's for sure. But then again I respect strategy on survivor above all else, and perhaps that's not what the majority of the players value this season.
panurge46		#18	[-]
Posts: 3178 04/21/12 07:14 PM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Thanks scrudam, it's nice to see that we are on the same page. Holly writes: "they should be able to see why Christina/Alicia would flip on the female alliance when they are sitting in 6th/5th place respectively." What logic for Alicia who would still be sitting in a 5 person alliance? At F7 she could be in the group of 4. Do you really think that Sab/Kat would sabotage their own games and a better chance to win the million just to get revenge on Christina/Alicia for their initial betrayal? There would be so much hurt feelings and distrust that they wouldn't even talk to Alicia and Christina about strategy. I'm sorry but Jenna/Heidi were very spiteful people on Amazon and even those two were willing to re-join Rob C to take out Christy, for self preservation and due to lack of options. First though, the girls went to Christy to get Rob out. It's only because Christy was a dumbass that the girls went back to Rob. It worked because Rob saw Jenna as his second goat and was smart enough to promise her the F2. With Tarzan aboard, why would Alicia and Christina want to take Sabrina along? Maybe Kat would be an attractive goat but, like I said, it will be much better to flip Kat at F7 after Troy is gone. On second thought, scratch that: If Kat wasn't in on the plan to eliminate Kim but still managed to make the F3, she would easily get the votes of Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina needing only one or two votes from the guys to win. Kat would only be a goat if she flips at F7 then all three women would share the blame. It's so much better for Alicia to wait for F7 that it's incredible that people think she would go for Troy's plan. Playing the strategy game like this to get to the F3 would either work against you (Rob Mariano/Russell Hantz level hate from jury) or help you win the game (Todd Herzog/Rob Mariano level respect from the jury). I guess you mean S8 Mariano in the first example and S22 Mariano in the second? What killed Mariano in All-Stars is that he backstabbed his friends while Amber was more likable. In S22, he was smart enough to eliminate his opponents first, keeping his allies for the end. Grant was upset but who could he vote for? Phillip??? Todd lost the votes of his allies. He won because of the Zhan Hu vote and because Jean Robert forgave him at the last moment. And Todd never flipped on a group: He pagonged his rivals while getting rid of two individuals from his own tribe when they became dangerous. If Alicia had made her move at F9, she would have gone against her friends first like S8 Mariano and there would be at least one person more likable than her in the F3, be it Kat or Leif or even Tarzan. I'd give Alicia or Christina my vote, that's for sure You and the viewers at home don't vote. The jury always vote for the person they like the best for a reason. An alliance is a pact: "If you screw me, I will screw you" and the women are in an alliance. Last Edited By: panurge46 04/21/12 07:20 PM. Edited 1 times.
survivorgirl22		#19	[-]
Posts: 8169 04/21/12 07:27 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I actually think Alicia has done about the best she could do post-merge.After how abrasive she was pre-merge and that whole thing with Colton ,I didn't think she was long for this game but she really has completely toned it down as far as that's concerned.
taylor112399		#20	[-]
Posts: 146 04/21/12 08:21 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	In my opinion, Christina and Alicia should stay with Kim/Chels/Sab to take Troy out, and once they do that, get Tarzan and Kat to flip with them (shouldn't be too difficult, considering Tarzan would do anything to survive, and Kat isn't that bright) They proceed to vote out Kim/Chels/Sab. There is problems with the plan, such as Kat not flipping, AND Kim's idol, but I think given Christina and Alicia's current situation, that would be the best way to attempt to manuever themselves into finals. ^_^
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The obvious correct strategy for Christina/Alicia

The obvious correct strategy for Christina/Alicia