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Season 2

Episode 13

Barramundi

Colby – CPP (CAPP)
C – He and Keith haven’t talked much lately. He keeps going off on walks and Colby thinks he’s strategizing. Keith probably thinks he needs to win immunity. After Mom leaves, he gets back into game mode. His only loyalty is to Tina. Both of Keith/Elisabeth need immunity to stay safe. At TC, he says he thinks strategy is up to the jury to some extent. You have no idea what they value. You might up your stock or cut your throat and not even know it until it’s too late.
A – Gets a little personality with his Mom stuff. Still not sure who he will vote for. On one hand, who deserves it and needs it? The other side is strategy – how can I get the money? It’s something they’ve all weighed since Day 1.
PP – Sad music along with a discussion of missing his mom. Tina/Elisabeth give him flowers for his car. Some semi-positive music plays (“Awwwww!”). When his Mom arrives, it’s the positive music again with the big reunion. Tina tells his Mom that she did a great job raising him. Would be proud if her daughter brings home a man like that. Tina admires him for his challenge dominance.

What else can be said at this point?

Keith – MOR (ML)
M – Turns out Keith’s walk wasn’t strategy – just sightseeing. He feels like you don’t have much control at the end. You should just enjoy things. Wants to do the best he can at immunity. Thinks it’s anyone’s game at this point.
L – Spends his time sightseeing thinking about family and how important it is.

Chef Goat is pretty unimportant here.

Tina – UTR (UA)
U – There’s a sense of doom and gloom about TC. There’s whispering and paranoia. There aren’t many people left to choose from. Pretty much exactly what she said last time.
A – Misses her family. Reminder from last episode. As the game winds down, they feel more comfortable thinking about it.

Very weak penultimate episode for a winner. I’m honestly kind of surprised, even after accepting that she is way more UTR than the official chart advertises.

Out

Elisabeth – OTTP (UHPP)
U – At TC, she says she votes her gut. She lets her conscience be her guide. She thinks about the right thing and she does it. Her vote for Keith is nothing personal.
H – Feels sentimental and didn’t expect it. Misses Rodger. Connecting with Tina because of it. Her hair is falling out, which is an interesting little detail we don’t see usually. She is apparently pretty much the nicest girl ever.
PP – Opening gives her the sad underdog treatment. She’s lonely without Rodger. Sad music. Later she laments not winning reward and says she misses Rodger again. Sad music. When Keith votes for her, he calls her wonderful and hopes his daughter gets to meet her.

And the last underdog holdouts are crushed!

Modern Edgic Score – Giving only half credit here. There are plenty of reasons to keep her in contention but also plenty of reasons not to (9.0 for 12).

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Overall Thoughts
These episodes are why we no longer see 42 day seasons. Lots of camp life. Huge amount of time spent on family visit. We’ve heard it all before – everyone’s tired, hungry, thin, bored, and they miss home. People widely consider this season to be one of the best. The more I watch it, the more I wonder why? Say what you will about modern Survivor, I think the editing is actually a lot better balanced in terms of entertainment.

All of the drama surrounds what Colby does. Who will HE pick to go home next? Tina appears as little more than a number in HIS game. Keith is a goat and has trended quite negative at this point.

Conventional logic suggests that all of this will-he/wont-he for Colby is just self-generated doubt. Tina is the boring/low key first boot in a finale. Keith is the classic goat. Colby is the Type A-ish, JT superhero. I see no reason for why this is a “Why Colby Lost” sort of edit. No one ever complains about him. He seems loved by all. He’s shown as making sound judgments throughout. Even if he should’ve picked Keith, the edit we see suggests he should win against either opponent. His visibility is astronomical, but the person with the middle vis (Keith) is eliminated otherwise. Edgic tends to favor too-much over too-little.

“Why the hell did Tina win?” is a very valid question after watching these hours upon hours of footage. Colby is shown making all of the decisions. I don’t see Tina getting much editorial manipulation trending positive. She’s inherently sort of likable but what else?

In the finale itself, she just seems to burst onto the scene, talking a ton about how she “used strategy” to get to the end. Other players agree with this assessment and many of the ones voting for her say she was the strategic powerhouse Sucks recalls her as. She’s suddenly the puppetmaster, the mastermind. The details, beyond allying with Colby and Keith, are still unknown to me. Tina’s edit deliberately hid these things. The explanation for her victory comes at the last moment - the finale - and based on how respected she was, it didn't need to be.

Who’s Winning?

By the numbers?

Colby is the clear choice, despite his flaws
If you correctly see through Colby’s edit, Tina’s edit isn’t terrible – just not compelling

Story wise?

Is this “Why Colby Wins?” or “Why Colby Loses?” These are the only stories left.

Additional Finale Scoring:

Keith – Not a surprise he loses – a surprise in HOW he loses (10 for 13).
Colby – Even if there were warning flags, I believe he had the best overall edit for the season and a nearly impossible one to shy away from (10 for 14).
Tina – I believe a few people would make the right call but not the majority (10.5 for 15).

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I will try to compile my charts later and post them for comparisons' sake. Unlike Borneo, where deviations are to be expected as a default because both charts were done by individuals, Australia's official chart was compiled by a group (albeit retrospectively as well). Even at a brief glance, I see a looot of differences - especially with Tina.

Rory Freeman wrote:

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Could anyone direct me to the best place to learn the ins and outs of Edgic?

Is Edgic the most widely used form of analysis when it comes to interpreting the edit?

Perhaps there could be a system for determining whether someone's edit is highly manipulated in order to conform to the games historical stereotyping,such as Sierra, who was heavily criticised by her fellow competitors yet her edit didn't include any sweeping denouncements of her general conduct.Tyson trashes her regularly but more in jest than anything else.Anyone else have other suggestions?

Thanks for the read RedCoffee.

The first pages of the Edgic thread have the most up-to-date information. I believe Phoenix also provides links to older threads and other interesting Edgic-related stuff. Edgic is the most widely used system in Spec, yes. I have this whole thing going (elements have been used by some Edgic people) and panurge does a very story-heavy analysis (which originally came from the Edgic thread).

The phenomenon you're referring to gets discussed on occasion. Flat out discrepancies in edit/reality that we become aware of during the show usually end up of interest, though the utility depends a lot on what we know. Given the above piece of info about Sierra, we might guess she wins or serves some crucial sympathetic role. In the end, not so much. The phenomenon needs more attention.

Glad you're enjoying it!

Pulau Tiga wrote:

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It's impossible to tell without more data, of course, but I suspect there's an intimate relationship amongst all the winners between their complexity and character development. The more of a character you are, the more complex you need to be when portrayed as such. Minor characters like Natalie or Bob are not going to have a ton of complexity because they're also not going to have a ton of development. They have a role to play, and their complexity is allocated accordingly. So you might be onto something here.

I totally agree here and suspect that the results will fall along these lines. I believe all winners will receive some significant amount of either game complexity or personality development. I believe there will be several interactions:
- All game complexity, little-to-no personality = Lower winning odds (gamebot)
- All personality, little-to-no game complexity = Lower winning odds (trend OTT)
- I believe the above two effects will be moderated by visibility, with imbalances being more likely to lead to wins when overall visibility is low. That is, a high-vis gamebot is unlikely to win, whereas a lower-vis gamebot has greater odds (someone like a Kim/Sophie, perhaps). A high-vis, personality-driven character is unlikely to win as they are a distraction. Personality-driven winners (like perhaps Natalie? Danni? Vecepia?) will be lower visibility.
- I believe the impact of personality will be moderated by season number, as later seasons will likely emphasize personality less

Other hypotheses I have:
- Winners will trend more positive than negative overall.
- Winners with significant negativity will usually be fairly game-complex.
- Within-episode pairings of low complexity, high personality, and significant tone (Edgic translation: OTTN, OTTP, and OTTM) will decrease winning chances
(It should be noted that I doubt I will assign as many of these as Edgic itself does because I am very tone-conservative and extreme tone does not push me to OTT as often)
- Player gender will play an important moderating role in many effects
- Player's actual game positioning will play an important moderating role in many effects

Another thing I'd like to generate and work with is an adjustment for within-season details. Much of this data is based on an absolute amount of everything. Sometimes, however, it's important to consider the season context. A person with 4 total CPs appears fairly low complexity. But what if they had the most total complexity of anyone? From a within-season perspective, they were high complexity. This needs examination and this system is set up to address questions like that. A similar application of this idea came in RI on a within-episode level. Phoenix noticed that, despite Rob's record-breaking visibility, he was rarely the most visible within-episode character. What about within-tribe comparisons? Within-premerge comparisons?

One thing maybe worth noting is that I think you've made a mistake in not assigning positivity to all of the Australia players in the relevant episodes. It might not be a huge deal because it applies universally and thus doesn't really lend itself to a particular winner story, but a major theme in Australia was the positive tone of the game's final group of characters. The editors made sure to allow us to sympathize with all six of the Final 6. Part of it may have been circumstantial, but our villain was gone by that point, and it really appears to me that the editors aimed for positivity in all of the last several episodes. There was a conscious effort to make use feel good about the season. Even with Colby losing (and I do believe Keith's negativity was crafted primarily to emphasize the gravity of Colby's F3 mistake) and our winner being so low-key so as to avoid the predictability of another Rich-esque winner edit, the audience was meant to appreciate the way things turned out. Making everyone positive and sympathetic during things like the flood was one of the ways they did that.

I alternate back and forth on the right call here. I think you're right that this is the intent. But should a goal to make an entire tribe more positive extend down to individual-level recording? Yes, as it gives the purest record of footage. No, as it introduces tribal-level editing into single scores. I'm still not entirely sure.

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Oh and also thanks to Blake for the official-looking charts! I like the idea of recording low-level tone by writing the letter but not changing the color.

Oh man unlimited time to analyze? Sort of like having a whole lab of undergraduates with nothing better to do than score episodes? Endless possibilities.

The number one thing to do would be to fully and objectively quantify visibility. First, all speaking could be quantified by number of words spoken by or about the contestant. Each word could have a multiplier attached to it based on the context (higher multiplier for confessionals, for example). Beyond that, quantify time on screen (in milliseconds - why not?) and attach a multiplier based on number of people the screen is being shared with. Visibility debates end FOREVER.

A full SPV chart would also be nice to have in its own right. Who says what about who? Jeff included as a source. The tone and quality of statements could also be scored.

Beyond that, I think the way to do what I'm doing with more precision is to score individual sentences and statements for quality. Set up a scoring system for which types of statements earn points for complexity and personality. Attach multipliers for context.

Similar sort of thing with tone. Using the entire show of Survivor, derive a set of "morals" within the Survivor universe and determine which behaviors are the worst violations of those morals. Worse violations - higher "N-Morality" tone score. Opposite system for "P-Morality."

Also some sort of system and score for "intelligence" or something like that. Sometimes people get "P" for being "smart." Sometimes people get "N" for being dumb. I believe these scores are distinct from the "morality" sort of tone. Someone can be a "loveable moron" or a "hate-able genius." Ideally one should not be forced to choose between types of tone. Problem I see happening, possibly, is people assigning this one based on perceived character traits and not manipulated editing.

I also think data on game realities should ideally be collected. This could honestly be a thread in and of itself. One example:

People should have a chart showing where in the hierarchy each person was shown to be at every stage. Ideas:
- MAJ-L (in a majority alliance, shown in leadership role)
- MAJ (merely in a majority alliance, not shown as the ringleader)
- MIN (merely in a minority alliance)
- MIN-L (in a minority alliance, shown in leadership role)
- MIN-U (in a minority alliance, shown in an "underdog" role - sort of like Troy in OW)
- FLO (a floater, who is depicted as not being in any particular faction)
- X (no information about their location in any hierarchy)

Winners in MAJ-L positions for most of the game will be Type As.
WTF-style winners will be in the MIN positions frequently.
Players remaining X for extended periods of time will never win.
Long term FLOs will be unlikely to win unless the edit emphasizes their complexity.

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I could probably go on forever with ideas. You could fill a lifetime with stats collected on Survivor episodes. I don't think you'd ever approach explaining 100% of the variance, but I think it's definitely possible to wear a decent chunk of it down and give people a great chance at taking a shot.

Been a long time! Between having a kid and work, I have barely even thought about this thing. Gonna try to keep it up, though. I'm going to put less emphasis on keeping up with the charts. It takes an eternity to enter them after watching an episode (as seen a couple of pages ago, I do way too many types of charts). I also don't intend to specifically discuss the "Story" version of the winning edit. Honestly, it's not something I specialize in. If others find it interesting as they watch, I leave it to them to discuss. I mostly just want to continue the re-rating thing because it is striking to me how different the official charts are compared to what I see. The start of Africa is no exception. I'm probably really rusty so feel free, as always, to comment, critique, etc.

Season 3

Episode 1

Boran

Clarence – OTTN5 (UHNN47)
U – Doesn’t even get to explain himself in confessional. At TC, he repeats his explanation.
H – Doesn’t think the food thing a big deal, much to everyone else’s amazement and chagrin. Then feels remorseful when he’s blasted. His act is harped on endlessly as an indicator of his character – poor and selfish.
NN – Ethan complains about him taking two cherries during the meal (supported with him doing it and a splice-in of nearly everyone with a stink-eye look on their face one by one). While off getting water, Tom says that they shouldn’t trust him alone with the food. Ethan also wonders about this. Of course, their fears are realized when he did end up eating food with Diane. Diane tries to pin it on him. Tom will forgive but won’t forget. Diane complains about him during the voting confessional.

Jessie – UTR2 (UL14)
U – Nothing
A – Sick and needs water. Puking.

Simply sick. Not much overall.

Ethan – MOR4 (ML29)
M – Briefly details the entire rationale for Boran’s move in his voting confessional – Clarence is being kept for strength only. In an episode otherwise devoid of complexity, I’ll score this single little speech as M.
L – He’s quite the boyscout but nothing overt.

Supplier of supported NSPV for our Boran villains. Falls over 800 times in the challenge but no one says anything. Thinks the army would kick out or “shoot” Clarence for eating too much food (…. right). Surprisingly inconsequential until his voting comment.

Kelly – UTR3 (UL16)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Background noise.

Kim J – UTR2 (UL8)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
(N) – Has the great idea to dump Boran’s water. Real life N, editorially neutral.

Background noise.

Lex – UTR3 (UL19)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Narration and background noise.

Tom – OTT5 (UH55)
U – Nothing. He hates Clarence but it’s not game complexity.
H – Mentions that he works on a farm during his complaint about Diane. The crazy redneck routine and singing comes up during the waterhole dig. Gets heated at Clarence when he gives his lame explanation. If he had a gun, he’d shoot him. We gon shake mah way from now on.

Tom is this season’s “big character.”

Samburu

Brandon – UTR3 (UL19)
U – Nothing.
L – His luxury item is chapstick. Not sure that’s personality development worthy.

Narration and background noise.

Carl – UTR1 (UL5)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Invisible, save his job introduction.

Frank – OTTN3 (UHNN20)
U – Nothing
H – Complains about the tribe not taking the hike seriously. Gritty and overserious from the start. During shelter construction, barks orders at everyone. “Spent 9 months of softness in my mother’s womb” and apparently there’s no more of that for him.
NN – Brandon complains about Frank barging ahead during the hike. Says he has no compassion. (supported). Lindsey complains that he even makes the big flag celebration no fun by asking them to speed up once he saw it. Kim P complains about his barking orders during shelter construction.

He is bordering on NNN. However, he’s not pure evil – just a stick in the mud.

Kim P – UTR3 (UA18)
U – Nothing.
A – Laid back and likes to socialize (unlike Frank, she says).

At least offers a little more about herself but mostly background.

Linda – UTR2 (UA14)
U – Nothing.
A – Starts with the “Mother Africa” business. Very offended at the tribe’s joking behavior (NSPV not directed at anyone in particular and the perpetrators are not easily identified).

Only has the Mother Africa thing.

Lindsey – UTR4 (UL27)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Narration.

Silas – UTR3 (UL21)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Starts fire but gets no particular credit for it.

Teresa – UTR1 (UL6)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Narration.

Out

Diane – UTRN3 (UANN25)
U – Nothing.
A – Mentions she carries mail. She recognizes that her speedy pace was a bad idea at first. Passes the fuck out during the challenge. Sits by idly during Clarence’s inquisition and then says it wasn’t her idea.
NN – Ethan complains about Diane using the map incorrectly right off the bat (supported). Tom also complains. Clarence claims in confessional that it was her idea to open the food. Clarence regrets saying she reminded him of his mother because she lied about him for no reason.

Not enough character to go OTT for me.

Overall Thoughts
Barely any complexity at all. Barely any character development at all. VERY dry. Surprising that the winning tribe of Boran looks less detailed than Samburu despite going to TC.

Who’s Winning?
I would be hard-pressed to guess much of anything based on this episode. Frank and Clarence are probably toast but everything else is so weirdly narration-heavy that even the UTR men would be hard to write off.

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Season 3

Episode 2

Boran

Clarence – CPM4 (CAPN45)
C – Really doesn’t want to lose the IC because if they do he could be voted out for what happened last time. The girls are the weakest link. But it’s not just that – it’s who you like.
A – Leftover portrayal of his poor character opens the episode.
P – At TC, Tom says he thinks Clarence is redeeming himself. He’s considered strong.
N – NSPV from Lex – his stealing was a good thing because it revealed him to be untrustworthy.

Ties most of what he says back to how it affects his position in the game. I score him an M but it’s very weak on both sides. It’s more a general sense that he is a controversial character with good and bad aspects to him, but nothing really jumps out and hits you.

Ethan – MOR2 (ML13)
M – When people go off to talk, it’s hard not to wonder if they are planning to vote you off. Everyone trusts Lex and Lex is working everyone. That gives Lex a lot of sway. Ethan’s a little paranoid of working with Lex because he could be working both sides of things. Tells Tom he wants Clarence out first instead of one of the women.
L – Nothing.

Again one of the more insightful players on Boran, but in small doses. What he says about Lex is very important but ultimately it’s far more about Lex than Ethan. Hard to give a CP for that.

Kelly – UTR4 (UA36)
U – Worries briefly that she could be in danger due to losing the challenge. Has a TCQ that is very similar to Kim’s (below). Little insight though – just like damn bro she was like so totally bummed to not perform man.
A –She’s all, like, totally hardcore about the gross food challenge. Like totally bro. Then she feels like shit for losing it.
 
I think the focus is on her happy go lucky, like totally chill personality more than anything. Excellent contrast with Kim.

Kim J – CP4 (CL39)
C – Screws up the reward challenge and feels very bad about it. It worries her because it’s a reason she could be voted out. Schemes with Jessie about how being weak is an issue. Worries that the men will gang up on the three women because of their strength. Discusses her worries that her screwup at the RC could get her booted. Votes out Jessie for strength-related reasons.
L – Nothing.
 
Harps a lot on her concerns about weakness and how that strategy is playing out at Boran. Thinking long term, thinking self vs. big picture.

Lex – MOR4 (MA36)
M – Everyone planned to vote for Diane unanimously but it was a good idea for one of us to vote Clarence to teach him a lesson. Thinks the event worked in the tribe’s favor because it exposed who Clarence is. Thinks Jessie isn’t admitting how sick and weak she is because the tribe will vote her off. Sets up an alliance with Ethan. He and Tom swore on their sons – want Ethan on board.
A – Per Ethan’s confessional, he’s working multiple sides and scheming hard.

Lex is already shaping up to be the big, major, character he will end up being. However, most of what he says this time is about tribal strategy and lacks depth.

Tom – UTR4 (UA39)
U – Tells Clarence they need to vote out the weakest links. Tells Ethan he wants one of the women. When Ethan wants Clarence first, he says it was him who voted Clarence last time to send a message. Then, despite complimenting him during tribal, votes for him again – he forgives but doesn’t forget.
A – It’s hard for Tom to get footage without some sort of personality coming out.
 
Kind of a hard call between U/M. For now, because some of what he’s saying is a recap of what we already know (he’s anti Clarence) and the rest is just the basics of the current voting round, I have a hard time scoring him in the MOR range. This is one I plan to revisit.

Samburu

Brandon – UTR2 (UAN15)
U – It’s like there are two tribes, split by age. For all they know, Silas is still working with the older people. They could be screwed… but you just have to roll with the punches.
A – Some of the “lazy kids” thing rubs off but it is nonspecific to him. Hard to go higher.
N – Brief lazy shot – asks Linda if she wants help while sitting.

Another borderline U/M case. Again, I just don’t see a whole lot of “umph.”

Carl – CP4 (CAP41)
C – Shown as sort of the ringleader of the strong old-folks group. Solidifies the group and says Silas is the key. Tries to sway him into their group. Thinks Silas would be an idiot not to stick with their group. He thinks Silas is still with them after the big blowup but doesn’t trust him.
A – Identifies himself as a hard worker like Frank unlike “others.”
P – Briefly IDed by Frank as a hard worker.

Reminds me of Jonathan Penner. Big talker, cocky, schemey, etc. He’s set up as the ringleader of the oldies.

Frank – MOR4 (MAPN42)
M – Would like things to work out in tribe but if not he’s ready to vote at least a couple of people out already. If the vote goes by age lines it would be a tie – they want Silas on their side.
A – Described as “military.” Barks orders. Complains about “the youth” not working. Carl, Linda, and Teresa are hard workers. However, he does not name the young people individually.
P – Part of the “hard worker” group.
N – Lindsey rolls her eyes and calls Frank “captain” to the camera as he gives her orders.

Another borderline U/M. This time I go M. The episode has a bigger role for him as Carl’s seeming #2 in command.

Kim P – UTR2 (UL13)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
 
Fluff.

Linda – UTR1 (ULP4)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
P – Briefly IDed by Frank as a hard worker.

Discussed by others as a gamepiece.

Lindsey – MOR3 (MAN30)
M – When Silas got back from getting water, she could tell something was going on. Chases Silas and Frank down and hears Frank plotting against her group – that’s when the game became real. Doesn’t trust anyone. A lot is riding on Silas but she has no choice.
A – Really gets all hyped up and paranoid when she discovers the scheming.
N – Brief lazy shot – asks someone if they want help while laying down and yawning.

The voice of the young-n-lazy 3. Worried about and discusses her own game, what needs to happen, etc. but isn’t detailed on it.

Silas – MORM3 (MAPPN32)
M – Game is heating up. What’s being said and what’s being done is different. As he agrees to an alliance with Carl and Frank, in confessional he says he thinks the nice guy finishes last. After Lindsey freaks out, he insists that he’s with them and that she should trust him – wants Frank out first. Cackles with a shit-eating grin about how this is a game for a million dollars and things are changing all the time.
A – You can feel the sliminess come through. When Lindsey asks if he’s playing both sides he’s just so pleased with himself.
PP – The older folks think he’s strong, mentally tough, and a much more appealing alliance partner than the rest of the young group.
N – There’s nothing overt, but you really get a strong sense that he’s shifty. He’s not as solidly with the oldies as they think.

Very interesting portrayal and really strikes me as a long-term arc in the making. Guess not.

Teresa – CP2 (CAP13)
C – Doesn’t like how things are playing out. She likes the younger people but at this point she wants to be on the stronger side, which is Carl, Frank, and Linda. When the young group finds out about the scheming, she wants to be honest. She is direct with them and says that there’s an alliance against them.
A – Straight shooter.
P – Briefly IDed by Frank as a hard worker.

Her entire game is nicely summed up in a few brief snippets. We know what kind of person and player she is. We know why she went with the older group, why she’s likely to stay with them, and what reservations she has about it. Good low-vis CP example, IMO.

Out

Jessie – OTT4 (UH38)
U – Schemes with Kim about how her weakness can be an issue. Votes Clarence because she wanted to last time but didn’t get to.
H – She’s sick again. Doesn’t want to drink the nasty water. People are worried. It’s set out as kind of a big deal because it affects everyone. The tribe worries she will fail the gross food challenge because she’s sick. But at TC, she “feels great.”
 
Her entire edit is about her being sick. Nothing particularly good or bad is said about it – just that it’s there. Very limited insight from her about what this means for her going forward.

Modern Edgic Score – Premiere gave too little information to make a fair elimination (0 for 1).

Overall Thoughts
Opposite of last episode. This time, a ton of people have little bits here and there that develop game or character. Hard to tell who deserves credit for game development and who doesn’t because many players get one confessional that is gameish. At the same time, they are most definitely not all on the same level.

Kim J has a really interesting single-episode arc about what it means to be a liability, what she can do to fix that, etc. This is made even more interesting when she votes out fellow weakling Jessie for being weak.

I would be pretty confident in a Samburu-dominated endgame at this point. They have so much better clarity in the game structure right now. Boran, despite going to TC twice, is just now starting to get underway with discussion of alliances, the hierarchy, etc. The clue here is that Samburu’s storyline, while detailed, is easily resolved. In fact, the whole powder keg is disarmed next episode when Silas turns on the oldies and dooms them to a mini-Pagong. I expect the tides to turn at that point.

Side note: I love how they spend a buttload of time on how sacred and precious the cow’s blood is for the IC yadda yadda yadda. And then not a minute later Jeff spills a bunch of it by clumsily pouring it into a fancy container for the TV cameras. Nice.

Who’s Winning?

Still hard to see much. The only person with two good episodes is Ethan but that’s still probably due to being the only game-commenter in the flat premiere. Teresa and Kim J’s CP edits this round are both pretty good signs as well.

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I can't find any source material for Africa's chart, by the way. This makes the possibility of actually discussing these ratings a lot more important, IMO.

Season 3

Episode 3

Boran

Clarence – UTR2 (UL13)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.

Narration.

Ethan – UTR2 (UL17)
U – Wants to win reward because they’re down two people and it’s nice to win.
L – Nothing.

Narration.

Kelly – UTR2 (UL16)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
 
Background noise.

Kim J – UTR2 (UA16)
U – Need to win immunity because they can’t be down to 3 in a row.
A – Uses her luxury item (paint) to get the mosquito nets a bright color for the challenge. She’s wearing a thong too, which is a bit odd and distinctive.
 
Key to IC but otherwise background.

Lex – UTR2 (UL17)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
 
Narration.

Tom – UTR2 (UA17)
U – Nothing.
A – Puts a feather in his ass crack and dances around. Same old same old.
 
Narration.

Samburu

Brandon – MORN4 (MANN41)
M – Calls the older group “conniving miserable people” for talking about them. They’re doing it right now (which is supported). Thinks the bead necklaces are either ballsy or stupid. But it’s fun either way. Thinks anyone should feel vulnerable at TC.
A – Lazy, catty, etc. but nothing super overt.
NN – Carl complains again about the younger group being lazy (supported by footage). Likes to do the cooking so he can give his own “team” more food. Devises a plan to fool the older people so they get less food. When the younger group ends up eating ALL of the food, he doesn’t care.
 
Very douche-like edit. Normally it takes more direct manipulation for me to go full manipulated N but the act of depriving another group food “just because LOL” really stands out, especially given the theme of Samburu to this point.

Frank – UTR3 (UA32)
U – Didn’t want to go 100% in the challenge today because the kids wouldn’t appreciate it. He has no flexibility – if you’re excess baggage, get the hell out of his way.
A – Mr. No-nonsense worker bee again, but not as overt as the premiere. Recognizes at TC that he is perhaps too aggressive and not very friendly.
 
A lower-key Frank.

Kim P – MORN3 (MLNN33)
M – Says the bead necklaces are part of a game strategy – it’s a direct slap in the face to the older group to show them they are unified. Everyone knows they’re fractured so “what’s the harm in going to tribal council? Let’s get it over with.”
L – More distanced from younger group – not a lot of specificity.
NN – Carl complains again about the younger group being lazy (supported by footage). Carl complains about how making bead necklaces is ruining their jugs as Kim is shown doing it.

Probably the least distinctive of the evil 4 young ones, yet also the 2nd most strategic. Negative more by association but still pretty clearly negative.

Linda – OTT3 (UH25)
U – Nothing.
H – Mother Africa can feel their spirits so they need to stay in high spirits. The spirits out here caused the idol goddess to leave them. She does not want to live in conflict. During voting confessional, again with the Mother Africa business.
 
Her entire character and almost all of her footage is all about Mother Africa etc.

Lindsey – OTTN5 (UHNN79)
U – Older group is sucking up to them. If they’re scared, the younger group will take it. Younger group might want to see an older person screw up in a competition so they will lay off. Thinks she could be vulnerable at TC because she got dehydrated the day before but thinks she gets along with people well. Close to M.
H – Overdoes it during the SOS challenge (many shots) and Kim P says it’s not like her to sit down before the challenge is over. Miserably sick – would rather die than deal with this pain.
NN – Carl complains again about the younger group being lazy (supported by footage). Supports Brandon’s plan to short the older people on food in confessional. Carl complains about how making bead necklaces is ruining their jugs as Lindsey is shown doing it. Justifies the need to make bead necklaces to solidify their 4-person alliance. Frank calls the bead necklaces a “waste of time.” Linda (after being told to “go away” when coming to help her when she’s sick mocks Lindsey for always talking crap about how strong she is – guess she’s not so strong. At Frank’s suggestion to get active during the SOS challenge, she is voiced over saying “drop dead,” while she is still sitting.

Pretty brutally negative – near NNN. One of the main characters in the evil 4 young group. Insightful, but not fully complex, IMO.

Silas – CPN4 (CANN28)
C – The younger people have realized they need to stick together or they’ll lose because the older group will pick them off. And he’s not going out that way. Straddling the fence is over. He’s not with the older people and he doesn’t care if they know it. He’s trying to get under everyone’s skin – the attempts to make Carl look rich are a strategy. When Lindsay got sick, it gave the older group a victory and he hated that. Acknowledges that Carl is right about tension but thinks you need to be able to bend in this game.
A – Carl calls him immature for his poor work ethic and attempts to out him for being rich.
NN – Carl complains again about the younger group being lazy (supported by footage). The suggestion of playing both sides from Teresa. Carl complains about his personality.

Silas turns heel here. The most complex of the evil 4.

Teresa – MOR2 (ML17)
M – Suspects that Silas plans to have the older group all vote for one person and the young people split their votes. Not sure if Silas is with them. Gut feeling is that he’s playing both sides.
L – Nothing.

Another brief insightful comment and then disappears.

Out

Carl – MOR4 (MAN52)
M – Recognizes the younger group’s strategy is to get under their skin and it’s working. Recognizes that Silas is trying to make him out to be the rich guy and thinks it’s a sign Silas is immature. When Jeff points out the necklaces at TC, Carl is quick to point out it “absolutely” is meaningful to the game (despite younger people’s attempt to handwave it).
A – He’s “the rich guy.” They focus on what he drives, (a Mercedes and a Porsche), that he’s a doctor. He refers to the young group as Generation X and he’s glad to be old and not part of it.
N – Brandon is bothered by how much Carl talks about his money because the rest of them are poor (supported partially – Carl sees nothing wrong with his wealth).

Never recognized it before but this was the first Jonathan Penner prototype they ever cast. VERY similar feel to their characters (above and beyond the northeastern accent).

Modern Edgic Score – The near-INV in the premiere for an alpha male type would usually do it but the flat overall premiere (and Tina’s episode 1 last time) would probably delay elimination for most (0.5 for 2).

Overall Thoughts
This is an interesting episode that I think reveals a lot about the season and is very confusing and misleading at the same time.

First, Boran is almost all camp life and narration. Lions show up and everyone is scared. They get water and everyone talks about how great water is. Given that they don’t go to tribal, this isn’t as big of a deal. However, to this point we have seen the complex tribes (Tagi, Ogakor) retain complexity and game structure even when the other tribe goes to tribal council. Thus far, despite going to two tribals, most Boran characters have little development and the hierarchy is vague. This would normally suggest to me that Samburu dominates the endgame.

At the same time, Samburu is probably the first instance of the “shitty tribe” edit. These people are pure dysfunction. The young group is clearly being demonized as awful, ungrateful, undeserving, villains (especially Brandon and Lindsey). The older group, however, is not exactly getting a golden edit, either. As negative as the younger group is, the older group hasn’t really been positive yet. They work hard, but are sanctimonious and whiny about it every episode. The main issue and emphasis is that this tribe is a mess and is clearly the “shitty tribe.” A naïve Edgic player at the time (just watched S1 and S2) might not see that but today we would be reminded of tribes like Fang – so shitty that the winner is unlikely to come from there.

This presents a big problem where it’s hard to see where the winner comes from this far out. Based on this, though, I’d be looking for a lone Boran to somehow fight through a Samburu endgame to the end (oops).

Who’s Winning?
I think it would be fair to completely eliminate the following people:
Brandon, Lindsey, Clarence, Frank (early high-N edits with little complexity coming with that N)

Unlikely but possible:
Kim P, Silas (association with “evil” young alliance)
Linda (very OTT episode here and it’s “OTTFuckinWeird” not “OTTP” or “OTTFunGoofy”)
Tom (he’s all goof and little game)
Treading water:
Kelly (UTR chick with potential to emerge)
Lex (male narrator but identified as a game player earlier and consistent footage)

Best bets thus far:
Ethan (only person with decent premiere, consistent presence, insightful)
Kim J (frequently commenting on how she fits into the game, low key, complex, observant female)
Teresa (same as Kim J but on Samburu)

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Season 3

Episode 4

Boran

Clarence – UTR3 (UL26)
U – Nothing.
L – Nothing.
 
Narration and comments about Tom’s fruit adventure.

Ethan – UTR2 (UL17)
U – They kicked ass at the challenge and it saved Kim. Very subtle comment.
L – Nothing.

A little snippet of game and some narration.

Kelly – UTR2 (UL14)
U – If their team just loses everything that’s just gonna be awful.
L – Nothing.
 
UTR chick yet again. Breaking the limit on this.

Kim J – MORP2 (MAPP19)
M – Tells Ethan “my ass is on the line” as they walk to get treemail. Thrilled that they won IC and it saved her. Glad that others seem genuinely happy about it.
A – Overtly blows the reward challenge, re-highlighting “weak” as a character trait.
PP – Ethan feels terrible for Kim. Sad, sympathetic music plays. Clarence complains about her more than Ethan but still sad music.

Same sort of edit – low key, introspective, observer. Her survival of being the weakest in the tribe is THE story at pre-swap Boran. Unlike some people (Diane, Jessie), this is seen as positive and sympathetic for her.

Lex – UTR2 (UL14)
U – Recognizes now that Kim is not up to the more physical challenges.
L – Nothing.

A very, very empty and narrational pre-swap for Lex. When he absolutely explodes onto the scene later, he will not look very winner-like.

Tom – OTT2 (UH16)
U – Nothing.
H – Has a hard time eating the nasty food. Tries to climb a 50 foot tree for food, much to the tribe’s chagrin. “He’s nuts!”
Hey that Tom is quite the kooky character, ain’t he!
 
Samburu

Brandon – OTTN3 (UHNN27)
U – Recognizes that the older people slacked on water on purpose to send a message.
H – Never alone, always with his “friends” and that’s not going to change. He is the ultimate stereotype of a catty, cliquey gay male.
NN – Linda found the young group’s rah-rah session right after tribal to be hurtful. Brandon asks everyone to vote Lindsey. “What’s in it for us?” “NOTHIN! :D” *music abruptly stops like a record scratch* Tries to spin the older people’s request of “what’s in it for me?” as some horrifically selfish act.

*Puke*

Frank – CPP5 (CAPP55)
C – Outnumbered 4 to 3 by the young group. Damn you Carl for leaving me with these misfits! Plan was to let their comfort level drop and he could see it working. Tried to reach out to get the water going for Linda and Teresa’s sake. If he gets to the merge, he plans to go behind enemy lines. Summarizes young people’s plan: help us out but we won’t tell you who’s going. He laughs. At TC, two tribes within one. Always something you can do to turn the game around – just need to wait for the right moment.
A – Not going to work as hard now that the young people are in charge – a wrinkle in his personality! It’s his birthday and he’s carving his wife and kids’ names on his torch.
PP – Sympathetic music plays during his torch carving. Linda thinks it’s a beautiful thing.
 
A very abrupt change for Frank. Very insightful, very well-rounded, and even positive! After his premiere, he is still not going anywhere other than distraction status.

Kim P – UTR2 (ULN12)
U – Little snippets of insight but nothing that is separated from tribal/alliance narration enough.
L – Nothing.
N – Linda found the young group’s rah-rah session right after tribal to be hurtful. Recaps that Frank and Carl originally did all the water and the young group was totally fine with letting them do it.

Still somewhat distanced from the rest of the evil young people group but mildly N for continued association.

Lindsey – OTTN4 (UHNN41)
U – Recognizes that older people voting for her is a good move.
H – Got really ANGRY at the older people for voting for her. Grr! Gets emotional when Linda goes crazy. Recognizes that she made a mistake by freaking out. Awful at separating self from game – she’s sensitive.
NN – Silas points out that her anger after tribal was a bad idea. Linda found the young group’s rah-rah session right after tribal to be hurtful.

Annoyingly intense, emotional rollercoaster, etc.

Silas – CPN5 (CANN61)
C – Last tribal council was a crapshoot and either could have gone but the winner took over the tribe. Lindsey handled the post-tribal wrong. They needed the older people’s support and she flew off the deep end. Explains that receiving votes from older group is a threat for ties. Nothing could alarm him – can’t wait for the merge because he plans on winning. Might as well write the check.
A – Phony, cocky, etc.
NN – Linda found the young group’s rah-rah session right after tribal to be hurtful. Tries to rally the older people with an on-the-knee pep talk that Linda found fake. Silas initiates one of the most idiotic bouts of negotiation ever in the show. Wants the older people to vote Lindsey. Goes along with Brandon’s offer of “NOTHIN!” in return for doing it – “do you want to bring the whole ship down with you!?” Linda states that she does not want to see Silas win. Another of the other three can win but not him. Something not quite right.

I love how Jeff, knowing that a swap is coming tomorrow, throws his comment about the game changing at any moment right in his face immediately before the credits. If being a huge douche this episode didn’t eliminate him, this odd inclusion is a pretty bad sign.

Teresa – UTR2 (UL11)
U – Asks young group who is going because it’s obvious it will be one of the old people. Would want to know. There’s a reason to keep any of them and a reason to boot any of them.
L – Nothing.

Very low-key inclusion.

Out

Linda – OTTN5 (UHNN71)
U – They could have used Carl for the IC – they might have won. At TC, it will be either Frank, Teresa, or her.
H – Cackles with glee about waking the young people up with news that they can’t go get water before the challenge. Gets all angry-black-woman and acts creepily pissed off about what happened the night before when Silas tries to fix things.
NN – Brandon points out that Linda has two sides and one of them is the creepy crazy woman that we are shown as he says it. The sound effects even accentuate her weird behavior as weird. Thinks OTHER people are acting strange when they pull back at her crazy routine.
 
I believe this is the first instance of the “Crazy Black Woman” Survivor archetype.

Modern Edgic Score – That OTTWeird last episode would get more people off the wagon in time (1 for 3).

Overall Thoughts
At some point during the episode, Kim P fully summarizes that Samburu is, indeed, the “shitty tribe.” Wonders “what’s wrong with us?” and then lists off all the reasons they suck (fighting, water, etc.). At TC, Jeff tries to reason with these idiots – going into a merge at 4+1 vs. 5 is suicide. The young group completely discounts that any of the isolation of the older group is their fault at all. Meanwhile, the older group is out to sabotage the tribe’s camp life (work, water) as a form of pure spite, to their own detriment as well. This is not a winning tribe, as we will eventually find out.

However, Boran is STILL the camp-life tribe featuring weak old Kim J. From a storyline perspective, there is zero momentum going into the merge. The only bubbling issue now is Kim’s weakness and a few brief references to a men’s alliance. If this group gets Pagonged, who the hell would care? This is, so far, one of the best pieces of counter-evidence to a “complex tribe = endgame players” theory that I’ve seen. Obviously Samburu has a pretty weak storyline of an obvious mini-Pagong with Frank just hoping to make the merge to cause havoc, too, but this is just super, super flat for 4 episodes in.

Who’s Winning?
Putting everything together at this point, I still think the three frontrunners are:
Kim J
Ethan
Teresa
in that order. Kim J’s edit surpasses Ethan’s at this point because she actually has a storyline and it’s one that is recurrent. Ethan is getting consistent and, at times, strategic footage but thus far he has little-to-no personality development and no real story to speak of. Very bland and camp-life narrational. Teresa’s edit is similar to Kim J.’s, but being on the “shitty tribe” hurts her stock a bit, thematically.

At this point, I’d expect Samburu to have control at the merge (where the old vs. young storyline would continue to simmer) and I’d expect Kim J/Ethan to survive as down-in-numbers Boran players. Then, because of Kim J.’s recurrent weakness in challenges, the fractured and bickering Samburus self-destruct and let her sneak her way to the end, where she wins the final vote. Sounds too perfect to be true (and is).

Borderline eliminated:
Tom (he’s all goof and little game – comparisons to Fabio keep him alive)
Lex (male narrator but identified as a game player earlier and consistent footage)

Fairly eliminated:
Brandon, Lindsey, Clarence, Frank (early high-N edits with little complexity coming with that N).
Kim P, Silas (shitty tribe, villain alliance, often cocky about it)
Kelly (4 UTRs to start the season would be a record, even for a young pretty chick)