S2 - Kucha 7-5
S3 - Samburu 8-6
S4 - Rotu 8-5 and 7-2
S5 - Penny's tribe 8-6 and 7-5
S6 - Men 6-4 and 3-1
S9 - Women 6-1
S11 - Steph's tribe 6-2 and 5-1
S14 - Haves 9-7
S17 - Fang - 5-1
S18 - Coach's tribe 6-3
S19 - Galu 8-4
Two other tribes had 3 person leads but evened the numbers before winning
S7 - Drake 8-5 to 5-5, and 5-3 to 2-2
S16 - Favorites 7-4 to 3-3
Only 5 times did the first tribe to gain a 2 person lead keep the advantage all the way to the end.
1 - Tagi 5-3
8 - Chapera 6-4
10 - Koror 8.1
12 - Casaya - 7-5 and 6-4
15 - Todd's tribe 7-5 and 6-4
4/6 of the greatest IC doiminating tribes ended up losing power at or shortly after the merge.
S4 - Rotu won 5/6
S10 - Koror won 7/7, the exception
S14 - Haves won 5/5
S16 - New Airai won 4/4, ambiguous case
S17 - Kota won 5/6
S19 - Galu won 5/6
Obviously it's no rare achievement when the premerge "underdogs" prevail, since it happens so often. In fact, we should have more sympathy with tribes like Rotu, Koror, Raro, Kota, and Galu.
First, they get ignored premerge because they rarely go to TC. That alone makes them hard for the average viewer to root for. In other words, Survivor's editing foirmat means they get PUNISHED for their success (compared to other reality games where winning legs of TAR or BB HOH gets you airtime).
Koror is the best case scenario because they held their lead, but Steph and BJ were still the big heroes who got to come back the next season, while numberious Koror endgamers were UTR.
However, if you get the lead and blow it, a worse fate awaits. You will get edited as an arrogant and incompetent overdog, and the facts will be shaped to fit this archetypal story. If you have a Shambitch on your tribe, you will rarely or never have a chance to boot her, and editing will show her bashing you and flaunting her victimhood each episode, until she betrays you. Everyone forgets that it's only because your tribe is STRONG that the useless Janus and Shambitches hang around. The reward for a tribe sucking, on the other hand, is that the majority alliance gets to boot all the people they don't like. So come the merge, the Yuls and Russells will usually have a nice herd of sheep to do their bidding.















