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NotHungry wrote:

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It's funny. Some of your analysis I thought was dead on but there are other contestants I see very differently. You raise an interesting case for Sandy in particular. Strangely, you're right, there is a rational argument to be made that she's set up well to forge an alliance. And other tough women have lasted far into the game - Helen, Twila, Sue, Deena. Still, I'll believe that when I see it. I think she was cast as the train wreck older woman instead - the Gillian or Wanda. Sent to comically annoy everyone and serve as a painless first boot. We'll see, though. I completely disagree about Stephen. You're framing him as a Ryan Shoulders type, which makes sense, but he's older than Shoulders and he's had more time to psychologically develop. Listening to him talk about strategy I really believe he's got the right attitude. He's charming and funny but I believe he could lie to someone's face or stab them in the back. I think he'll be somewhere between Yao Man and Penner - a geeky lovable guy who's an aggressive and intellectual strategist. I'm right there with you, though, about Debbie. I've gone back and forth from thinking she's doomed to thinking she might win. We'll have to see how it shakes out. And do keep in mind that some people already know about Brendan's wealth and that means it's likely that everyone will soon know. He strikes me as having the right temperment but being screwed because of who he is. I agree with a ton of these, though. Smart post. Thanks for writing it.

JALAPAO TRIBE

CAROLINA

Well, I was right that she'd be like Paloma. Both were physically weak and both had attitudes that wound up getting them voted out instead of more obnoxious players. She really screwed up in her bossiness, because bossiness is a killer during the first few days. I mean, after a while, it's okay because people have other reasons to make decisions, but early on, being the boss is just dumb.

JOE

I hate that I got him in the office pool because he's just so damn dull. He's the exact kind of person who's pretty much destined to make the merge, but he'll be so dull and unmemorable while doing so. Apparently, there's an alliance between him, Sydney and Spencer too, and something tells me he's in with fellow southerner JT as well, so he's well-positioned on the tribe.

JT

He's a leader and there's not a whole lot he can do to change that. The good thing is that he seems to be a natural leader that's just an overall likable guy to be around, so while that may put a target on his back early, it still makes it far less likely that he'll be an early boot.

SANDY

Okay, I get that she was upset about the early vote and figured they would never give her a chance due to being old, but she really fucked up this episode by playing a horrible social game and basically getting lucky that Carolina messed up worse. Still, I think she's in a good spot for the NEXT episode because she was saved this episode, which tells me she's needed in the plans of at least ONE power player on the tribe.

SPENCER

Speaking of which, if anyone is likely to take control of the tribe and be a power player, who better than little Spencer? After all, he was the main force in booting Carolina. Spencer's gonna be underestimated and he's a real schemer with a semi-solid alliance at the moment, so he's in a good place right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was closest to Sandy, too.

STEPHEN

I still don't really think he's going to fit in with the rest of his tribe. I mean, he might've performed better on Timbira, but with a group of older women, attractive young girls and southerners, he's just the odd man out, regardless of who he's managed to make alliances with. Carolina was with him, but now she's gone, so who knows what's gonna happen with Stephen.

SYDNEY

Yup, she's like Jacquie all over again, the pretty blonde girl with no personality who is strongly positioned specifically because of her lack of any personality. She's got a pretty good alliance going right now, so at least that made up for her horrible performance in the first challenge. Still, as the only young girl left on a tribe of mainly young men, she's in a good spot if they want something to look out while they're out there.

TAJ

I just don't see her fitting in that well. Yes, she might be strong, but she's a bigger woman and she definitely seems like she has the potential to have a big mouth. Add to that the fact that, according to Carolina, she doesn't have a really solid alliance, and I could see Taj as being the next person out of the game.

TIMBIRA TRIBE

BENJAMIN

I refuse to call this douchebag "Coach" and the fact that he refers to himself as "Coach" does not help his chances, because that, right away, brings a negative connotation to himself. Furthermore, he talks about wanting to boot the weak, but that isn't always the best options because most players want to keep people around who THEY can beat. I wouldn't be surprised if Ben is a pre-merge boot.

BRENDAN

Assuming he keeps his identity a secret, since I assume a millionaire head of a company would have more anonymity than a celebrity like Taj, I can see Brendan doing well. He seems like a nice guy who could be accepted by almost anyone on the tribe, and again, he does seem like he's got the know-how to last a long time and please his tribemates.

CANDACE

We didn't see a whole lot of her, but from what I've heard (I haven't had a lot of time to watch insider videos), she's not adapting well to the environment, and while I think she could parlay a few more days if she targets Sierra or Erinn, I doubt Candace will last much longer.

DEBBIE

Like Candace, we didn't see a whole lot of Debbie, but it says something about her that as the oldest woman on the tribe, she wasn't targeted in the initial vote. Plus she was willing to go chill out and have fun with some of the younger players like Tyson and Sierra, so I think she has a lot of potential to fit in with everyone on her tribe.

ERINN

She's a typical young girl who seems a little bit out of her element and naïve. She complained about things being too hard and along with Sierra, who was actually sick, she was one of the initial targets during the first vote. At this point, I could easily see her getting left out of some potential alliances and Sierra moving up in the pecking order ahead of her.

JERRY

He's the lovable army guy that I was expecting, and it's good to know that he's not going to go out of his way to try and lead the tribe. Ben seems like the kind of guy who's more likely to step up into the position and fail, allowing Jerry to swoop in and save the day. He's probably in it for the long haul, that Jerry.

SIERRA

I still think she's in a bad position, but I've gotta say that going out and building an eight-person shelter BY HERSELF so that her tribe wouldn't have to worry when they arrived in the dead of night has got to have gotten her some points. Plus, Sierra didn't do to bad at her task when it came time for the immunity challenge either. If she can survive the next episode, I think she's bound to be in the clear at least until the merge.

TYSON

Tyson's in a really good position because he seems like he's just a very charismatic and likable guy, and he made a great first impression on the rest of his tribe. He's strong and was very helpful in the challenge, especially compared to some of the others on Jalapao, and he seems like the kind of guy who could start a harem alliance with the four women, and he could easily pull that off.

SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS RANKINGS FOR WEEK ONE

1. Tyson

2. Jerry

3. Brendan

4. Debbie

5. Spencer

6. Sydney

7. Joe

8. JT

9. Sierra

10. Erinn

11. Stephen

12. Benjamin

13. Candace

14. Sandy

15. Taj

Biggest Gain/s: Debbie

Biggest Loss/es: Candace

JALAPAO TRIBE

JOE

Once again, Joe is boring as hell and might as well have not even been cast, given all that he's brought to the table so far. He's not in a solid alliance from what we've seen, but he might be in good with Spencer and Sydney, plus his southern-ness might give him an easy in with the tribe's leader, JT. He's in a good position for now, due to his overall physical ability, but he's just so damn bland.

JT

Not a whole lot of change from last week, other than that we now know that JT has a solid alliance and friendship with Stephen. Still, he's in a good position as a likable leader that didn't force himself into the position so much as he just naturally took on the job. He could easily take control of the tribe at this point.

SANDY

She's still in a bad spot for the same reason as Sierra. There were several hours in which she simply wasn't connected with the rest of her tribe, and her search for the hidden immunity idol didn't really help matters. She's in a bad position, but once she's gone, there's no more easy boots, so people would be smart to try and pick her up just as an extra vote because she'd be loyal.

SPENCER

Not a whole lot going on with Spencer from last week, the same as Joe. He's just another member of this tribe and it's really weird that we know next to nothing about any alliances on this tribe, aside from Stephen's plans for JT. Spencer could range from a really good position to a really bad one. It's impossible to tell.

STEPHEN

I'll admit that I underestimated Stephen. He's proven himself to be a lot more adaptable than once thought. The smartest move you can make in Survivor is to cozy yourself up nice and close to a leader, because assuming the leader stays in control, that means you're safe from tribal council, and if they fail, nine times out of ten, you're still safe because you can jump ship while he or she is targeted first.

SYDNEY

Yawn. So boring. Sydney's really not in the best position on her tribe because they've already been willing to boot a young, attractive girl due to physical weakness, and every round she lasts through, Sandy becomes more valuable, while Sydney's stock drops in value. I could easily see her being the next player to go at this point, barring some sort of alliance with someone outside Joe and Spencer.

TAJ

Yeah, Taj's problems are starting to surface because regardless of how strong she may or may not be, the fact is that she's physically imposing, which isn't a good thing for a woman to be, sorry to say. Plus, the fact that her tribe knows who her husband is and the fact that they know she's rich doesn't exactly put her in a comfortable spot at this point, mainly because she's with a lot of people who could use any reason to get her out of the game. She does seem to have potential for working with Timbira though, after a swap or a merge.

TIMBIRA TRIBE

BENJAMIN

And as happy as I am that Sierra is around (and sad to see Candace go), I still think it's funny that this guy who has only watched Survivor on TV and talks about bringing only the biggest and strongest players to the end kept around a weak player over the strongest woman on the tribe, AND he was pathetic in the past two challenges. His chauvinistic and perverted ways will get the better of him sooner, rather than later.

BRENDAN

Brendan is a strong guy and he's a likable guy and he's got that positioning right now that puts him solidly in whatever alliance could take control. He's got Sierra as someone he could easily beat in a challenge down the road, and is a bigger target. He's got Ben, who's a douchebag and people dislike him. He's got Taj, who's an in to the other tribe for him. Right now, Brendan has the game in his hands.

CANDACE

While I personally think it was a dumb move to boot her (over an asshole like Ben, who was also a physical detriment to the tribe), her big mistake was either going against the majority decision of Sierra too early, or going back on her plot to take out Ben, when she should've been campaigning harder for his elimination. She wound up making people nervous and paid the price.

DEBBIE

Debbie, surprisingly, was chosen as the player to sit out of the immunity challenge. I say surprisingly since if everyone thinks Sierra is so weak, then why keep her in the game over someone useful. Debbie's probably viewed as a liability, but she's also made the smart move of trying to get in good with Ben, who seems to be in control of the vote at this point. The only downside is that this opens her up to getting taken out of the game to weaken Ben's power base, a la Mary and Mikey.

ERINN

Erinn's really uninteresting, and I think one of Ben's comments that the girls, not just Candace, would be blindsided by the vote, says a lot about her position in the game. She may have voted with the majority, but at this point, she's probably the other girl Ben thought was on the outs, and whether she was informed by someone else or not, she's still not in a solid position within the tribe.

JERRY

Staying under-the-radar and just going with the flow is the smartest move Jerry can make, because at this point, he just seems like a nice guy that people are going to want to boot sooner or later because of the fact that he's too nice to let near the end of the game. Timbira has Tyson and Ben on it, two guys that are both likely to tear each other apart like Maraamu in a power struggle, and the last thing Jerry needs to do is put himself in the limelight as any sort of threat to either of them.

SIERRA

Sierra got lucky that, like Carolina last week, someone else of the tribe fucked up, spooked the wrong people, and got blindsided out of the game. That being said, she made a smart move in cozying up to Brendan, who as I said, is in a solid position within the tribe at this point, and he's a good person to have around as an ally. At this point, Ben and Debbie personally ensured her safety, which means that person she can slide under-the-radar as some of the more powerful alpha males duke it out for supremacy.

TYSON

Whether he likes it or not, Tyson proved his strength in the challenges once again by dominating two out of the three rounds this week. He's got a relationship with Jerry, it seems, and he does seem like he doesn't quite agree with Ben's decision, but went along with it for tribe unity. Still, I can see Tyson battling it out for leadership soon enough, because Ben really doesn't seem like a good leader…at all.

SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS RANKINGS FOR WEEK TWO

1. Brendan

2. Stephen

3. JT

4. Jerry

5. Tyson

6. Joe

7. Spencer

8. Taj

9. Sydney

10. Sierra

11. Erinn

12. Sandy

13. Debbie

14. Benjamin

Biggest Gain/s: Stephen, JT, Taj

Biggest Loss/es: Debbie

JALAPAO TRIBE

JOE

At least he's proven himself as having challenge abilities. Still, he's not connected with Taj, Stephen or JT really, who seem like they have the potential to take power in the tribe.

JT

Still a leader, only now he's connected to the guy who's connected to the girl who has an intertribal alliance.

SANDY

No idea what's going on with her. She could either be an easy boot to avoid conflict within the tribe, or she could be a swing vote between two factions.

SPENCER

Yeah, I have absolutely nothing new to say about Spencer at this time.

STEPHEN

He's definitely rising steadily in the ranks. He's got the connection with JT while still keeping himself under-the-radar as a potential puppet master. Plus he has a close enough connection to Taj to make her trust him more than anyone else, essentially making him a link between JT and Taj with the potential to find the hidden immunity idol. And with his tribe winning, he's in a good spot.

SYDNEY

Every challenge, it seems like she proves that she's the weakest member of the tribe, and that's just not going to cut it in the event that they lose. She seems like a definite boot target whenever Jalapao goes to tribal council again.

TAJ

Her tribe is strong and she's already made an alliance across the tribes with Brendan. Now, we can't be sure whether that alliance will work out, but even if it doesn't, Brendan found the idol and will probably tell Taj where she can find her own. Either way, soon enough, Taj'll probably get the idol, and that should be enough to give her safety on Jalapao, especially considering her strength.

TIMBIRA TRIBE

BRENDAN

Brendan, in terms of the Timbira tribe, might not be as strong as he was last week, if only because Coach first talked about not caring whether Brendan wanted Erinn gone or not, plus the fact that Coach will probably get into a fight with him over alpha male leadership. Brendan seems to have a good relationship with Erinn and Sierra though, so he controls at least half of the tribe, and then things come down to Tyson.

COACH

Coach is such a supreme douchebag, and it's interesting that he doesn't get his way this weak, despite having an apparent deal with Jerry. Erinn still being in the game just makes his game harder, because she will more than likely never be on his side, and as such, he needs to maintain an even tighter grip on the rest of his tribe to survive.

DEBBIE

I'm really starting to think that Debbie, being Coach's best buddy, is probably only making herself a bigger target that'll probably go home sooner, rather than later. She's already viewed as weak and she's got a big mouth and is more than willing to make the mistake of saying "The loss was my fault." She's gonna be targeted very early on to weaken Coach, unless the target shifts onto Coach instead.

ERINN

Yeah, Erinn really doesn't seem to have much going for her in the game and she seems to have simply gotten lucky that Jerry got sick, otherwise she never would've had any chance of surviving a tribal council. Still, her position in the game could be improved, simply by becoming a swing vote as the numbers of Timbira decrease. At this point though, there's little reason not to vote her out, knowing how much of a threat she is to jump ship at the merge.

JERRY

He got sick. That's all there is to it this week. He was playing the game very well, avoiding the spotlight, and sometimes you just can't plan for sickness.

SIERRA

She seems to have worked herself into Coach's good graces, while not being so connected to him that she's likely to crash and burn in his wake. She also made a smart move in working together with Brendan, who now trusts her and is willing to bring her into an alliance with himself and Taj. So with Erinn higher on the chopping block than herself and several alliances with leaders, Sierra's in a good spot right now.

TYSON

Yeah, him working with Coach makes sense, given that he's kind of a douchebag as well. He's a strong guy, probably the strongest guy on the tribe, and he's in the Stephen position with Coach in that he's not viewed as the leader, and he's also not viewed as Coach's closest ally like Debbie is. So essentially, Tyson's in a very strong position right now.

SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS RANKINGS FOR WEEK THREE

1. Stephen

2. Brendan

3. Tyson

4. JT

5. Taj

6. Joe

7. Spencer

8. Sierra

9. Debbie

10. Sandy

11. Sydney

12. Erinn

13. Coach

Biggest Gain/s: Debbie, Taj

Biggest Loss/es: Sydney

JALAPAO TRIBE

JOE

Yeah, Joe's an outcast on the minority tribe whose only connection is an outcast on the majority tribe while he three tribemates all have a potentially solid alliance going. Joe's an easy boot for the next round, and I think he's next to go, especially since, for all his "strength" he's got that bum knee that's been brought up several times to us already.

JT

JT's in a good spot because he's in a solid alliance that could potentially control the game, even though he's currently on the minority tribe. He has an idol on his side which can come in handy, and he's one of the strongest competitors in the challenges. His only problem is if Brendan/Sierra don't like the idea of three people on Jalapao having a majority in their alliance, and vote out JT using the other Timbiras.

STEPHEN

No one's gonna target him for anything anytime soon. He's strong, but not so much so that people are gonna target him as a threat. And he's positioning himself right in the middle of everyone so that all information flows through him, rather than having to rely on others. AND he is the one physically in possession of the hidden immunity idol. So right now, I'm thinking Stephen is the safest member of Jalapao.

SYDNEY

That's what happens when you vote out an ally and rely entirely on dumbass Joe to pull you through the game. She wasn't that bad, but she really should've sold Joe out for his weakness. Well, she didn't bring anything to the game anyway.

TAJ

Taj just has a very boisterous personality, but I think that now that she's made the merge and she's gonna be reuniting with Brendan and Sierra, who have every reason to watch her back, since they've got to deal with the rest of their original tribe, she's gonna be okay. Joe and JT are obviously gonna have bigger targets, unless Timbira decides to boot her for potentially being too close with Brendan.

TIMBIRA TRIBE

BRENDAN

Brendan's in the majority, but there's still that lingering fear of Tyson and Coach coming after him strategically. He's got two allies coming over from the Jalapao tribe, so he's got that parachute if things go wrong, but he's also going to need to worry about Erinn's loyalty, and Stephen's loyalty as well. He's also a distinctive threat both physically and mentally, so people might think about booting him early on, rather than letting him get far in the game.

COACH

Yup, Coach continues to be a jackass who pisses off his tribe, which only makes the target on his back that much bigger with the merge coming up, because it can be very enticing for someone to flip in order to boot some asshole who's been making them miserable the whole game. He still has his grudge against Erinn and now Sierra's pissed at him too, so he needs to just shut up for a while if he wants to stick around.

DEBBIE

Yeah, Debbie's not really doing much. She's made the merge and she seems to have a nice enough personality that people aren't going to be chomping at the bit to vote her out, but she still hasn't really done ANYTHING thus far. She could really go at any point after the final 7, I'd wager, or even be in the finals (not winning).

ERINN

Yeah, the girl has NO allies on her current tribe and her only ally on the other tribe has no solid allies left and is a big enough idiot to believe he really has the HII. So Erinn's not exactly riding high right now, especially if, like Coach, some people see this as an opportunity to flip and get rid of someone who doesn't serve them in a positive way.

SIERRA

There's still no reason to want to target her, especially since she's in an alliance that isn't forced to rely solely on the original Timbira tribe. She's not set up to win yet, but she is set up to go far in the game.

TYSON

With the tribes merging, he goes from being an asset to being a liability, especially since he's a sneaky guy. Now, while I don't think he's in any danger at this moment, with Coach being so much more visible as a threat and an outsider than him, Tyson isn't in the top spot anymore.

SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS RANKINGS FOR WEEK FIVE

1. Sierra

2. Stephen

3. Debbie

4. Tyson

5. Brendan

6. Taj

7. Erinn

8. Coach

9. JT

10. Joe

Biggest Gain/s: Taj, Erinn

Biggest Loss/es: JT, Tyson

FORZA TRIBE

COACH

There's still little to no reason for people to want him gone, especially since Sierra seems more disliked and Debbie seems to have a bigger target on her back as a challenge whore. Coach is just the loser that wound up going against the majority and fell flat on his back because of how he handled Sierra.

DEBBIE

Debbie's trying to be nice, and I think she's more likely to stick around based on personality than Coach, but at the same time, she could look like a physical threat or a jury threat. She's in the minority on the tribe, and due to her handling of Sierra and Erinn, she's not looking good this time around.

ERINN

Erinn made her swing early, and now it would be in her best interests to swing back and eliminate the far bigger jury threats of Stephen, JT, and Taj. But something tells me she won't do that because she hates Timbira and is basically going to make an emotional decision that'll cost her the game. She's still the most safe it seems.

JT

He went back on his word to Coach, which'll put Coach on the warpath against him, but there's not a whole lot Coach can do about it. I mean, JT has two tight allies and Erinn who hates Timbira. All he has to worry about it Stephen or Taj trying to blindside him as a threat.

SIERRA

Sierra got lucky that Tyson didn't win immunity this week, and she's still not in a good position, because the rest of the tribe still doesn't like her, and there's a majority alliance of four already in play. I suppose she could survive a bit longer, but she's not in a game-winning position right now.

STEPHEN

Stephen's still playing under-the-radar, which will work amazingly for him, assuming he actually makes the move to eliminate JT at some point. Keeping JT around isn't a bad move, but not getting rid of him when the end draws near would be a bad move, because JT looks like the better player in the eyes of the jury.

TAJ

Taj is still just floating along and there's not a whole lot that could negatively affect her position in the game. The only thing that might hurt her is a family reward where Eddie George shows up and reminds everyone that she's already rich. Other than that, Taj is golden for the final 4 it seems.

TYSON

He didn't play a good game. I mean, the Jalapao 3 were easily his biggest threats once Brendan was gone, and rather than roping Sierra in and just giving her a home in her desperation, he mocked her and basically made himself a bigger target in her eyes. He was too big of an immunity threat, and I knew that winning that first challenge was a dumb move on his part, because it got him booted.

SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS RANKINGS FOR WEEK NINE

1. Erinn

2. Taj

3. Stephen

4. JT

5. Sierra

6. Debbie

7. Coach

Biggest Gain/s: Sierra

Biggest Loss/es: Debbie