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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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BlakeB717		#1641	[-]
Posts: 1413 (03/09/09 9:34 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think considering Sierra's "doubt" or predicament carried into episode two where she was a major target, and in Episode One where she was voted off of her tribe really solidifies why she was CP early. However, they could have made her CP in Episode 3 (and did give her some good lines), but she was so strong in the first two episodes she really needed to cool off (especially when the distracting Erinn vs Coach and Tyson story doesn't involve her). If she wins, especially for either "Type" of winner, Sierra looks very strong.
Phoenix1269	Winner Votes (Episode 4)	#1642	[-]
Posts: 523 (03/09/09 9:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Edgic Losers Percentage of possible loser votes Week 1 100.00% - Joe Dowdle 100.00% - Sydney Wheeler 94.12% - Ben Wade 94.12% - Debbie Beebee 70.59% - Spencer Duhm 29.41% - Taj Johnson-George 29.41% - Tyson Apostol 11.76% - Brendan Synnott 5.88% - Erinn Lobdell 5.88% - JT Thomas 0.00% - Sierra Reed 0.00% - Stephen Fishbach Edgic Winners Percentage of winner votes received 80.39% - Sierra Reed 60.78% - Stephen Fishbach 27.45% - Erinn Lobdell 15.69% - Brendan Synnott 7.84% - JT Thomas 1.96% - Tyson Apostol 0.00% - Ben Wade 0.00% - Debbie Beebee 0.00% - Joe Dowdle 0.00% - Spencer Duhm 0.00% - Sydney Wheeler 0.00% - Taj Johnson-George
BlakeB717		#1643	[-]
Posts: 1414 (03/09/09 9:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sierra continues to progress towards the top of the MOR Diff. which is very typical of winners. She also isn't straight-out at the top (like Erinn) so early, which is great! Shame Erinn got CP. Shame Sydney got MOR. Shame Coach got OTT (but I really don't mind =D). Shame Sierra didn't get P.
Kitty Pryde1		#1644	[-]
Posts: 9031 (03/09/09 9:41 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Sierra continues to progress towards the top of the MOR Diff. which is very typical of winners. She also isn't straight-out at the top (like Erinn) so early, which is great! Shame Erinn got CP. Shame Sydney got MOR. Shame Coach got OTT (but I really don't mind =D). Shame Sierra didn't get P. I voted that way for all four.
Phoenix1269		#1645	[-]
Posts: 524 (03/09/09 9:42 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Sierra continues to progress towards the top of the MOR Diff. which is very typical of winners. She also isn't straight-out at the top (like Erinn) so early, which is great! Actually Blake, the winners tend to hover closer to 1. Only Yul & Aras were ever that low. Parv was on the underside of 1, everyone else was near 1 or over. There is a link to the analysis on pages 60 & 61. Agreement regarding Erinn's MOR... too low and way too early. This is where Marcus was last year when he got the boot! eta fixed page numbers Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 03/09/09 9:46 PM. Edited 1 times.
BlakeB717		#1646	[-]
Posts: 1415 (03/09/09 9:50 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, traditionally (and in the winners guidelines on page 1) winners gravitate slowly towards the top of the MOR Diff. Whether they starts at 3 or start and 1, they will generally always move towards it as the season goes on, and then in the latter half it may change a bit when things like doubt set it (as edgic is mainly a pre-merger identification tool). It's unlikely, in the first half of the season, for the winner to not change much in MOR Diff, be near the bottom most of the time, or be at the very top. Then again, edgic has evolved. I guess we just disagree Kitty! That is OK. I just think its a shame because I felt pretty solid on all 4 of those ratings.
9RedWing19		#1647	[-]
Posts: 2468 (03/09/09 9:58 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The issue that concerns me over the next 2 episodes: will Benjamin be able to equal Jerri's (S2 flavour) record of opening a season with 6 straight episodes of N tone? I have my fingers crossed. Benjamin does deserve a shout-out for having a seasonal tone rating of <-1 after 4 episodes. Very impressive. Edited to add: I still have all the votes from the participants who re-did Season 2. After 4 episodes, Jerri's seasonal tone rating was -1.053, so she has a slight "lead" at this point. Last Edited By: 9RedWing19 03/09/09 10:07 PM. Edited 1 times.
fat little fingers		#1648	[-]
Posts: 5914 (03/09/09 10:28 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think there are multiple people who had significant episode ones who weren't Coach, Sandy and Sierra. A great post, taks. It made me think about the SPVs in those first confessionals. With Sandy's boot, it makes Stephen's Ep1 jump out a bit. Why did he get that "geek" comment from her? We have a number of SPV's involving first impressions in Ep1: Erinn and Tyson Stephen and Sandy Coach about Sierra Stephen about JT Brendan about Coach Erinn and Tyson seem to have a story going, so the cross SPV makes sense. Sierra has her survival doubt set up by Coach's comments. Brendan sets up his conflict/rivalry with Coach. Stephen sets up his "surprise" friendship with JT. But, why Sandy's comment about Stephen as a geek who will be easy to lead? A story was never formed between Stephen and Sandy. That means, to me, that it was a set-up for Stephen's story alone. That's unique this season and something that jumps out after Sandy's boot. Sierra still sits at the top of my list, but Stephen continues to be a strong contender.
taks		#1649	[-]
Posts: 34 (03/09/09 11:05 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	But, why Sandy's comment about Stephen as a geek who will be easy to lead? A story was never formed between Stephen and Sandy. That means, to me, that it was a set-up for Stephen's story alone. That is a good point, and one that I've put some thought into. It is completely a setup to Stephen's story. And this last episode, the story just grew a little more... Episode One: Sandy: "The real tall boy, I think he's like a geek. I think I should be able to lead him around real easy." Look how closely Taj's ep. 4 quote parallels this... Episode Four: Taj: "Now, I need to talk to Stephen because I know I can trust him. He's kind of like the nerdy shy guy who just wants to help everybody /break/ and I know I can depend on him in the long run." It's like the editors are telling us, just in case you forgot, Stephen is the dorky follower. If that's not building up a grand first impression to crush, I don't know what is. Does this mean Stephen wins? Who knows... but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he turned into the manipulative leader or orchestrates a major blindside. And then there's this little nugget, from episode two... Episode Two: Stephen: "I know it makes me look like [JT's] goofy, awkward right hand man. But if he thinks I'm the goofy awkward right hand man, he's going to want to keep me around longer." Stephen seems to set his strategy as playing the part of the nerd to further himself in the game. Well, it's working so far. Interestingly enough, the one person who he references in this quote actually never makes a comment with regards to Stephen being easy to lead or nerdy. JT's closest statement to this is, "he's definitely a city boy", which, needless to say, is far from underestimating Stephen. Stephen during this scene exclaims that he is "smitten" with JT. Their relationship seems more like two equals, with both realizing and appreciating the other. All in all, Stephen looks awfully good.
BlakeB717		#1650	[-]
Posts: 1416 (03/09/09 11:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, Sandy tried the same thing with Sydney--use her brains to manipulate someone naiive. It didn`t work, because she`s crazy. Thus, it wouldn`t have worked with Stephen. Also, it shows how people may perceive Stephen (enforcing Taj`s statement that Stephen is a geeky guy who just likes to help everybody). Stephen has a good first impression--people think they can manipulate him. But maybe they can`t? This bodes very well for Stephen`s chances.
BlakeB717		#1651	[-]
Posts: 1417 (03/09/09 11:14 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	LOL taks! Same post at the same time. Nice to see you picked up on that too!
fat little fingers		#1652	[-]
Posts: 5915 (03/09/09 11:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	All in all, Stephen looks awfully good. Yeah and all the more so because his story is buried under all the noise on Timbira and Taj's high-vis CP character (and until now, Sandy). Sierra bothers me in that her story is so easily and noticeably intriguing. My over-medicated Aunt Myrtle even knows Sierra has a hot story going. But, while Sierra got the heavy CP treatment in Eps1&2, Stephen's edit kept getting little extra bits of story stuck in that he had/has no reason to get and no one else is getting around him.
craig		#1653	[-]
Posts: 15148 (03/09/09 11:31 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Season Visibility Averages What a contrast between active players on Black and Red! Considering they both have 2 TC appearances, it's obvious Black is more complex and important to the engame story. 3.91 - Ben Wade 3.53 - Taj Johnson-George 3.09 - Brendan Synnott 2.95 - Tyson Apostol 2.92 - Sierra Reed 2.69 - Erinn Lobdell 2.63 - JT Thomas 2.57 - Stephen Fishbach 1.89 - Spencer Duhm 1.86 - Joe Dowdle 1.76 - Sydney Wheeler 1.72 - Debbie Beebee I wouldn't put much stock in the details on MOR Differential, as long as a player is tending towards the lower numbers. For example, Erinn's season rating average of 2.99 is a statistical fluke. It makes her look the same as if she had 4 straight CP episodes, but is produced by a VERY different epit - several episodes with a split UTR\MOR and CP\MOR.vote. It makes just as much sense (if not more sense) to think of MOR as the mid-point between CP and UTR, and once upon a time it was calculated that way. Season Rating Averages From most to least 2.99 - Erinn Lobdell 2.98 - Sierra Reed
taks		#1654	[-]
Posts: 35 (03/09/09 11:50 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Haha, Blake, I guess the point just needed to be made. =) Great point though, seriously. No discussion on close calls yet, and it's not surprising. The booted was the only one where we failed to reach a consensus (although I apparently was very liberal with the positive tones in comparison) and I don't think anyone really cares about Sandy at this point. I voted CP after switching from OTT. She was kind of CP in an OTT way... as in we got to know her thinking but she's so completely out of it that it really did paint her as the crazy woman. So maybe it was OTT. I'm slightly disappointed JT didn't have enough CP votes to bring him to a close call, as I thought he had a great case. Realistically, I'm not surprised considering how country the dude is (his way of speaking just screams "give me an MOR!"). Even if he were relaying electromagnetism he'd sound simplistic. I'm also surprised that Erinn's CP wasn't a close call (I voted CP, but wasn't sure). Anyway... can't wait till Thursdays episode, it seems I've finally run out of topics to belabor.
getting real		#1655	[-]
Posts: 1554 (03/10/09 1:42 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	But, why Sandy's comment about Stephen as a geek who will be easy to lead? A story was never formed between Stephen and Sandy. That means, to me, that it was a set-up for Stephen's story alone. Yes. I'm also tending to think that Coach's Ep. 2 comments about worthy opponents and the strong being triumphant are meant to be seen in the context of the rest of his edit: laced with irony and heavy contradiction. Coach is likely to be bested by an opponent he considers neither worthy nor strong; however, the same parameters could equally apply to the winner: The winner will be someone originally considered neither strong nor worthy but who has fought to develop sufficient strength and worthiness to overcome that initial impression. Stephen's is one of initial heavy emphasis on geekiness, lack of leadership skills, lucking into things through no action of his own: witness not only Sandy's comments but the reinforcement of theose comments from Taj when explaining why she chose him for the secret alliance. With his win in the Ep 2 basketball challenge, Stephen has been edited as overcoming handicaps. It appears that this editing progression will continue towards the end-game. Sierra and Stephen have had by far the best development in this progression. They have also had the best edgic numbers. Conversely, the edit of someone such as Erinn is plagued by the fact that she hasn't really been edited as overcoming first impressions. Indeed, subtle tweaks here and there ensure that Tyson's original impression still holds true. She is running out of time.
craig		#1656	[-]
Posts: 15152 (03/10/09 3:16 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Good work tying Stephen into the First Impressions theme. You're solidifying him in my top 3. As for Erinn, it took way more than 4 episodes to convince the naysayers that Parvati had indeed changed her game in Micronesia. Erinn has plenty of time if she makes the merge. Still no negative SPV beyond N Coach and N Tyson.
getting real		#1657	[-]
Posts: 1555 (03/10/09 4:30 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Still no negative SPV beyond N Coach and N Tyson. Perhaps not, but there's definitely been some negative FPV. Quite a bit of damning stuff has come out of her own mouth - not to mention her nose.
astroline		#1658	[-]
Posts: 2073 (03/10/09 5:51 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A few thoughts... #1. Parvati was definitely a Type A winner. Her edit was very very similar to Chris' in Vanuatu. #2. Sierra, Stephen & Erinn all look really good right now, for different reasons. That's why they've been my top 3 for the past 2-3 episodes now. J.T. has a good edit, but whoever said it's just like a Brandon or Matty edit is probably right. It reminds me of Austin too. It's a good edit, but not really a winning one. #3. Blake, I remember those charts. I'm afraid to see what my ratings would be for Season 3. Probably a Candace edit.
Jedijake		#1659	[-]
Posts: 5514 (03/10/09 7:16 AM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sierra bothers me in that her story is so easily and noticeably intriguing. My over-medicated Aunt Myrtle even knows Sierra has a hot story going. flf, is that such a bad thing considering last season? The idea of having a female with that sort of edit is kinda refreshing.
Phoenix1269		#1660	[-]
Posts: 525 (03/10/09 8:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	taks wrote: I'm slightly disappointed JT didn't have enough CP votes to bring him to a close call, as I thought he had a great case. Realistically, I'm not surprised considering how country the dude is (his way of speaking just screams "give me an MOR!"). Even if he were relaying electromagnetism he'd sound simplistic. I'm also surprised that Erinn's CP wasn't a close call (I voted CP, but wasn't sure). it was pretty close... 60% to 40%, it missed close calls by 2 votes. and Erinn missed close calls by only 1% (56% CP - 40% MOR - 4% UTR) ETA: And Craig.... the MOR DIff stands for Middle of RANGE... not middle of road which is the ratings definition. Additionally, the MOR Diff calculation has not changed. What has changed is the fact that we have a lot more historical data to look at and see what the ACTUAL trends are.

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