So far the discussion in Spec about the new season has actually stayed away from what seems like the meatiest subject. I know such threads have the potential to degenerate into the absolutely unreadable, but they still seem worth having. I'll start.
Timbira
Looking at the Timbira tribe, Bejamin stands out at me as being an unavoidable leader. There's a million reasons why - he leads people in two seperate professions (which probably means he likes doing it), his outdoors experience commands respect and suggests knowledge, he's older but not too old to fit in, etc. Asking him not to lead seems sort of like asking Hunter Ellis not to. I'm not sure if he'd know what to do with himself. So while it's worth wondering who, say, Erinn would like to align with, I think who Benjamin would like to align with is going to take some precendence. Benjamin says he wants to gather the best of the best (he's reiterated versions of this a few places.) Social Darwinism, etc. So who would he see as the best? The obvious answer is strong, mature men. Brendan seems like the surest thing. In his CBS.com video interview he seems inoffensive and reserved, but he's obviously intelligent (he HAS made $150 million dollars) and looks strong - perhaps he would slide naturally into a well-shielded sidekick role. Either Jerry or Tyson could be a second. Tyson seems like a short sighted choice to me - a divisive figure, seemingly really unlikable. Jerry, on the other hand, strikes me as pretty upbeat and looks like he could have some Rupert-esque power hidden underneath that belly. But Tyson is so cut that if you were making a Day One alliance I have a feeling he might get the benefit of the doubt. I wouldn't assume Benjamin would go for all guys, though. He's a college women's soccer coach. Maybe he'd go for some athletic younger women. Erinn strikes me as a slam dunk to be part of the core group. She's just the kind of athletic 20-something year old girl I could see him being comfortable and very familiar with working with. She comes off as clever and friendly but not an obvious threat. Perfect final two material for Benjamin. And I'd think she would want to stick close to the power if she's going to have any sort of a predictable riding coattails game (I hope I'm wrong but I never am about that.) So Benjamin, Erinn, Brendan and Tyson stand out at me as being the core group, with Jerry and Candace candidates to take Tyson's spot if he turns out to be too much of a social liability.
In terms of early boots, though, I'd be concerned that Benjamin would view Debra as one of the weakest (which bums me out because she's a favorite of mine.) Unless she uses the middle aged woman strategy to her advantage in a way we haven't seen since Tina Wesson and Teresa Cooper, she's likely to get the brunt of bad first impressions (which is ironically her best bet to survive.) She's older, less athletic, doesn't fit in as well, etc. If she gets traded for Sandy, Sandy is toast. Like, even more so than she would have been on her current tribe. If someone else gets traded for Sandy I think both Debra AND Sandy are in trouble. Sierra also seems more likely than some to draw Benjamin's negative attention. She's skinny (remember how Courtney used to get out of breath?) and keeps presenting herself as ultra emotional. She almost makes herself sound Borderline on her MySpace page. And nothing about her background screams physical laborer.
Obviously everyone has a say, not just Benjamin. He even has the potential to draw fire sooner or later if he gets too big for his britches. I can almost guaruntee you a lot of people will think he's a jerk, from what we know so far. But this tribe strikes me more than most as being leader oriented (sort of like Yul's tribe or Earl's tribe, etc.) Feel free to disagree - that's the point of the thread - but I see Benjamin, Erinn and Brendan at the top, Sandy, Sienna and possibly Debra at the bottom, and Candace and Jerry in between.
Jalapao
Looking at Jalapao, they're younger and closer together in age. The older figures starting out - Taj and Sandy - don't strike me as the tribal leader sort. So they look like a tribe that will lead by consensus (or something closer to it) and it wouldn't surprise me if the power dynamics were well hidden by the editing once the show starts. Joe seems confident and steady to me, upbeat, Colby Jr. If he played like Colby he'd be more of a leader by example, a worker, a challenge contributor. On a tribe like I'm describing the cohesive people should do the best and the people who isolate themselves - by wandering away from the group or sleeping outside the tent - should be in trouble. The general core group would then likely be some combination of Joe, James, Sydney, Carolina, Stephen and Spencer. Again, Sandy seems like the one who doesn't belong, which means she'll very likely be traded on Day One. But Taj is older, too, and looks less athletic even than Sandy, and less of an obvious buddy for, say, Joe than James is, or Carolina for Sydney. It's not that she couldn't overcome that but she also seems to be lacking any outdoors experience, physicality or physical labor background. I think she's almost as hosed on this side as Sandy will be on the other side. For some reason I could see Debra doing a little better, and that may be wishful thinking. But she looks a little younger, she considers herself goofy (that bit about her kids wanting to hang out with her at night clubs) and she shouldn't be as much of a drag in the challenges. So I could believe someone would target her as a Final Two scheming partner the way Colby did Tina. Stephen also strikes me as a good scheming partner, so I'd put him ahead of some. The whole Jalapao tribe strikes me as a bit more of a crap shoot predictions wise, while Timbira seems more hierarchical.
Overall I'd tentatively like Benjamin, Erinn, Brendan, Jerry and Candace to stick around from Timbira with Sandy (in a trade,) Sienna and eventually Tyson (around the merge) being on the hot seat. On Jalapao I like Joe, Stephen, Sydney, James and perhaps Debbie (in a trade) to stay, with Taj and I suppose by default Spencer and Carolina being in the idgiest position.
Feel free to beat the mickey out of me but, if possible, explain your reasoning.
