Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis in MESS Hall Archive Forum

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Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis

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Beef Jerky	Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	Lead	[-]
Posts: 382 04/26/01 12:08 AM More Recent Posts	The task here is to ask, is our analysis contradicted by what we see? This is a focused and intense debate. It is up to a "senior" member of MESS (hopefully one of the Mods) to post an UPDATE in the SS Spoiler forum. At 1 pm we lock in our picks. The MESS Hall Tribal Council has spoken.
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fplo	Even more difficult than we thought	#1	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 07:42 AM More Recent Posts	From the Early Show: "Today's challenge combines element of previous challenges you already done. So if you learned anything, piece of cake - if you havent, you'll be repeating history. You're going to start blindfolded and shackled, navigate your way thru a series of obstacles. You'll then move on to a puzzle (the say Outwit, Outlast, Outplay, Outback). When you complete the puzzle you get a key - that undoes the shackle. The third phase, filling the bucket with water - you move across a very narrow balance beam to your fire and water scale. When the fire burns thru the rope the bucket will raise. The first person to make a fire that lights the fuse wins the reward." So, it seems the fire may be AFTER the water. Other than that, seems we did a great job on this one.
dgr81	"Ultimate" Challenge is RC not IC!	#2	[-]
Posts: 625 04/26/01 07:45 AM Registered User More Recent Posts	FPLO has it right, but he(?) did not mention that the above is for RC NOT IC! So what is IC? It could still be the paired-off challenge, because it was supposed to be an IC originally.
fplo	RC not IC	#3	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 07:49 AM More Recent Posts	my god, I just watched that again and you are right - it is for RC - not IC! What the....????? p.s. I'm a "her"
Chaddogg	Re: RC not IC	#4	[-]
Posts: 243 04/26/01 07:50 AM More Recent Posts	Great....now where do we stand? And if that's the case, and the fire building happens after the water bucket, then Colby and Tina are in the most advanced stage of the race? Time to reconsider the GUT....
Bungler	Re: RC not IC	#5	[-]
Posts: 1436 04/26/01 07:52 AM MESS Moderator More Recent Posts	I'm uploading pics right now... Give me about 5 minutes.
fplo	fire building and water	#6	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 07:55 AM More Recent Posts	I cant do vid caps, but they show the entire course (except where they get the wood). It's the maze, the puzzle, the pole with the keep, the bucket, the balance beam, the water side of the tower and the fire side of the tower. So I think after they unchain themselves (and this also means they will have to duck UNDER the ropes since they are using the caribeeners (sp?) and their feet are shackled) they take the first bucket of water, go across the beam, put the water in, go get wood, build fire, then finish filling the water side.
fplo	fire building and water	#7	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 07:57 AM More Recent Posts	I cant do vid caps, but they show the entire course (except where they get the wood). It's the maze, the puzzle, the pole with the key, the bucket, the balance beam, the water side of the tower and the fire side of the tower. So I think after they unchain themselves (and this also means they will have to duck UNDER the ropes since they are using the caribeeners (sp?) and their feet are shackled) they take the first bucket of water, go across the beam, put the water in, go get wood, build fire, then finish filling the water side.
Bungler	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#8	[-]
Posts: 1436 04/26/01 08:02 AM MESS Moderator More Recent Posts	Caps are up. Time for a MAJOR GUT revision, I guess. (My refusal to pick until Thursday at noon sounds good now, eh?) bungler.xoasis.com/rc.html If that page doesn't work for you, try here (temporarily, anyway): www.glasscity.net/users/beehive/rc.html
Chaddogg	Re: RC not IC	#9	[-]
Posts: 243 04/26/01 08:04 AM More Recent Posts	Not sure where to put this, but here's a new attempt at the GUT....who do we even feel like choosing for the paired up challenge (IC) and TC? Day 37: Life at camp without Rodger Having returned to camp from the previous night's tribal council, all the members of Barramundi immediately miss their beloved Kentucky Joe. Lis is especially torn up about losing her friend. Not only is her hair falling out now due to the stress and malnutrition, but for the first time all game she feels alone - isolated with the Ogakors, and without any Kucha support network. Elisabeth believes herself to be short for this tribe, but vows to fight for everything she can get. (Possible addition: Rodger leaves his Bible with kind words of all...all cry...no evidence for this, though). Tina approaches Lis and talks to her about Rodger's selfless sacrifice - his decision to leave the tribe first so that Lis could help pay the medical bills from her sick mother. Lis cries more, and tells Tina the story of her mom and the immunity headress she made in honor of her mom's brave fight with cancer, while watching the first Survivor. America sheds a collective tear. Tree mail approaches, and surprise of surprises, the note reads: "Do you remember all you've learned? Can you dare compete? In order to win this challenge, all previous challenges you must beat." RC is all previous ICs combined into one (or at least most of them). Guess what immunity is? A visit by the family...Lis's jaw drops, Tina gasps, Colby and Keith smile at the challenge of it.... The race begins....Colby leads out of the gate, but Lis and Tina quickly catch up after the rope race....the come to the puzzles....Lis is quick to solve hers first, and goes to get her wood....Tina follows, but only after Lis is almost to her bucket to start her fire....Keith is next, followed by a puzzle challenged Colbster.... Tina and Lis get their fires started at exactly the same time....it's Tina, then Lis, Tina, then Lis, down the backstretch of the balance beams....but narrowly, it's Tina with the victory! Keith has just reached the balance beam after a delay in lighting his fire....Colby has just lit his fire after a delay at the puzzle...and Lis was on the balance beam negotiating it after an unfortunate spill on her second bucket attempt.... Day 38: Back at tribe... While Keith is brushing his teeth, our mystery guest arrives to take Tina on her Outback feast....who is it? Tina's youngster husband! Wasn't Jeff P nice to give her a mirror after the challenge before so she could make herself pretty? Tina enjoys a dinner with her husband, but first a tour of Barramundi. AFter the tour, they head out on the helicopter for their feast. Keith and Colby look in the mirror about their appearances, Keith feels left out. Keith goes off on his own to gather fire wood and such....Colby muses to the camera that it was strange that Keith left while he and Lis were talking....he must be worried he won't win immunity tomorrow, and that Lis and Colby have an alliance. Day 39: Anybody's game.... Day dawns with tree mail: "If your brain is still sharp, and your eyes can catch, you can win a prize for tomorrow, by making the perfect match." Contestants go off to the challenge area, where within a square lie 36 baskets (maybe less). The Reward challenge: match as many objects as possible....and you must take any object you get. The winner with the most matches wins a meal tomorrow with a "special surprise guest". The contestants take turns, winning different pairs of items....spiders, snakes, toothbrushes, toothpaste, etc....and somehow, Lis ends up winning! Yeah Lis! The survivors return to camp....all but Lis are unsure of their position....Keith remarks "it's anybody's game now"....he and Tina are voting for Colby, but how will Lis align herself? TC: A tense moment. America wonders which way she'll go. Tina's vote is shown: Colby. Colby's vote is shown: Keith. What will happen? Dare we blink an eye? Jeff P reads out the votes.... "Colby" "Colby" "Keith" "Keith". A revote....same results....Keith is ousted....Lis and Colby, in brilliant strategy, realized breaking up the Tina-Keith connection was their only hope of maybe making the final 2, combine together. Keith takes his paella pan off to the ranch, so him and Rodger can explore Sydney. America breathes a sigh of relief. Rodger beams a smile of joy for his little Elisabeth. Thus, in summary: RC: Tina (if only cause I don't like one person winning both RC and IC anymore) IC: Lis TC: Keith
Chaddogg	Re: RC not IC	#10	[-]
Posts: 243 04/26/01 08:10 AM More Recent Posts	PS, We can change it easily, based on who we think wins... So if you wanna stick with Keith winning IC, and Colby going, that's cool....although I think that Keith is gone unless he wins IC....which now I suppose is a maybe sure thing, since the only Survivor NOT shown at the matching challenge was Keith (his dejected picture in the now RC) So is this how we should go: RC: Tina IC: Keith TC: Colby I originally liked the RC: Tina IC: Lis TC: Keith idea I posted above, but Beef, I will eat my crow, somewhat, and go with the above idea (TC: Colby), that the majority had pushed originally.
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dgr81	That was FAST	#11	[-]
Posts: 625 04/26/01 08:14 AM Registered User More Recent Posts	I like the revision, but since we now know that IC is almost guaranteed to be "paired-off" (like it was originally scheduled to be), won't Keith and Colby have the advantage? Last week in S&C they both proved that they had the best short-term memories, which is key to matching-up pairs. Therefore maybe we could look at Colby winning IC AGAIN, and Keith saying Bye-Bye.
crocophile	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#12	[-]
Posts: 14094 04/26/01 08:16 AM MESS with me, I'll MESS with you More Recent Posts	Well I don't think the Herald should be discounted they have Keith being voted off. I'd still favor this event for Liz.
figerind	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#13	[-]
Posts: 35 04/26/01 08:19 AM More Recent Posts	Chaddogg thanks for your work i really like your GUT. I too am now leaning towards Keith being to booted one ( I am a MESS so i will support whatever we choose ). I just don't think we really have a lot of evidence that Colby really does go. I think we have more leaning towards Keith. 1. We have been "teased" in many episodes about keith going and MB usually teases and teases and it finally happends. 2. We hear of him being alone and setting himself apart from the group and being worried about losing the IC and getting the boot ( Yes, this is assuming it isn't Colby ). 3. He has been getting on everyones nerves, Colby and him having fights about food. Liz making faces behind his back. 4. I still can't stop thinking of how he was going to be booted in 4 but Tina and Colby let him into their "group" on the way to TC after they asked Mitchell FIRST. so, i still think T/C are aligned. Just wanted to help if i can.
Chaddogg	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#14	[-]
Posts: 243 04/26/01 08:24 AM More Recent Posts	The question though is how much we wanna adhere to the Boston Herald idea....or our own ideas originally.... What do we agree on? I like Tina in the RC (what we previously thought was the IC)....explains her greeting the guest so warmly....and it being a loved one is the reason for the jawdropping reaction at the RC site.... While I personally think Keith is gone unless he wins immunity (and did before) does everyone else? And more importantly, who wins the Paired Off Challenge? I think Lis guys....that would then explain the "it's anybody's game now" comment by Keith....or else Tina winning IC too, like I had thought last night, so that all of the vulnerable 3 are left. So maybe Tina IC, and then Tina and Keith tell Colby they're voting Lis....and the surprise is when Colby betrays them, making a deal with Lis to make Final 2 together (in the form of the we're dead without each other idea I stated earlier)
fplo	Doubts about IC now	#15	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 08:30 AM More Recent Posts	now that we have been shown that this is the RC and not the IC, I'm doubting that the IC would paired off. Would they have 2 memory ICs in a row? I just dont think so. Could the RC be something else? And I dont believe that it's a loved one for the reward. Maybe JP just tells them they will be spending the day with a special guest and Tina assumes it's a family member (with Sean's father's visit in her mind from last season). That would explain her expression at the RC and later Colby's first look and then his amusement.
pheenix11	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#16	[-]
Posts: 1278 04/26/01 08:32 AM Registered user More Recent Posts	Ladies & Gentleman, I think MB's campaign of misinformation has reached its pinnacle this week. I caution you to stand by your convictions... I think MB has decided to throw the spoiler groups for a loop. After the articles coming out detailing the success of Elipsiiis, he has taken action to totally confuse us this week. (bad leaks, misleading previews etc etc) Maybe I'm just getting paranoid but I think its a good possibility that the Boston Herald has been intentionally fed bad info this week. I also think the Early Show previews may be intentionally misleading. I didn't agree with every prediction in your gut, but I do think it was based on sound logic. Personally I am sticking with my picks for this week (RC=Tina, IC=Keith, TC=Liz) & I encourage you to do the same in the face of this web of deception that MB is spinning.
zihuatanejo	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#17	[-]
Posts: 113 04/26/01 08:34 AM More Recent Posts	I don't know. Chaddogg, your logic is sound. I just can't shake the feeling that it's Colby who is gone if he doesn't win IC. If this IC is mental, the next one seems to be more likely to be endurance-based (like last year). Why not get rid of Colby when you finally have the chance?
Chaddogg	Re: Doubts about IC now	#18	[-]
Posts: 243 04/26/01 08:37 AM More Recent Posts	Some other things about the RC... Bryant Gumbel mentioned this is the final RC....so there isn't one next week? And I think they need to go more than once down that balance beam....or maybe only once, so Lis then falls off....
fplo	more than once down beam	#19	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 08:41 AM More Recent Posts	they would have to go more than once down the beam with the water if they build the fire after the first bucket of water is taken across the beam. I'm assuming they would dump that water in and not leave it sitting there while they go get the wood and build the fire. If only one bucket had the weight to raise the fire then they couldnt get to the fire bucket to build the fire because it would be up in the air. And I still cant get past the fact that this RC is so difficult and our analysis for the IC now seems so simple. There is so much at stake, wouldnt the IC be harder? I'm so confused!
crocophile	Re: Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis	#20	[-]
Posts: 14094 04/26/01 08:43 AM MESS with me, I'll MESS with you More Recent Posts	Why would Colby want to make a deal with Liz if his head isn't on the chopping block? Liz winning the IC and going against Keith in council adds up. Trust me the Herald is right on this, and their information ISN'T coming from MB. I agree with Liz winning IC. Tina in the RC DOES make sense. This is a phyical event. I strongly believe the balance beam favors the women. But Tina is in far better shape than Liz. Plus since this is an RC, and aparently for the best reward she is motivated. Motivation was one of the reasons many discounted her before. Also it appears to me in the vidcap that the victor winner is in lane 2 or 3 because I see only two towers. From the trees in the background, I go with 3.
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Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis

Episode 13 -- Early Morning Show Analysis