Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council in MESS Hall Archive Forum

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Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council

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OkieLoki	Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	Lead	[-]
Posts: 7643 04/26/01 07:18 PM Not even supposed to be here today More Recent Posts	Post analysis on who gets to taste the shoe leather. For now we'll have two separate threads, one for F3 and one for the Ultimate Survivor. If the discussion becomes too convoluted, we can merge the threads.
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fplo	it's only between Tina and Colby	#1	[-]
Posts: 131 04/26/01 08:46 PM More Recent Posts	Seriously, we can eliminate Keith. It's got to be Tina or Colby because they both know that Keith is the most dislike by the jury members. I just wish they would have shown us some sort of previews!
FaeryGdds	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#2	[-]
Posts: 174 04/26/01 09:16 PM More Recent Posts	I wish I could made vidcaps, but I blew up the preview and there are 2 or 3 relatively clear (albeit dark) frames of the final 3 going to TC. The person on the right is wearing a dark shirt and a hat. At first I thought it was Colby, but it looks like he also has a beard... sort of salt and pepper... and there is something making a browninsh v on their chest. After looking at it I tried to make it Colby, but I think it may be Keith.
Beef Jerky	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#3	[-]
Posts: 382 04/26/01 09:20 PM More Recent Posts	I agree. Keith is Colby's and Tina's ideal bitch date pick for F2. I say Keith will take his chances with Tina rather than Colby. So if Keith wins the IC, its Keith and Tina in F2 If Colby wins the IC, its Colby and Keith in F2 If Tina wins the IC, its Keith and Tina in F2
stlousanta	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#4	[-]
Posts: 527 04/26/01 09:32 PM More Recent Posts	BJ, agree with your assessment of the dating likelihood.
Aone	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#5	[-]
Posts: 129 04/26/01 09:59 PM More Recent Posts	Well, too early to figure much, but I thought I'd get in my thoughts on how the voting will go depending on the final 2... Keith/Tina Alicia - Keith (friend of Jerri, see below) Jerri - Keith (remember she "had alot to say to Tina) Nick - Keith Amber - Tina Rodger - Tina Elisabeth - Tina Colby - Tina Keith/Colby Alicia - Colby Jerri - Colby Nick - Colby Amber - Colby Rodger - Keith Elisabeth - Colby Tina - Keith Colby/Tina Alicia - Colby (Jerri friend, Jerri hates Tina as above) Jerri - Colby (Jerri hates Tina as above) Nick - Colby Amber - this one's hard but I'll say Colby Rodger - Tina Elisabeth - Tina Keith - Tina (unless Tina won IC and didn't pick him)
volcat	And the winner is ....	#6	[-]
Posts: 614 04/26/01 11:57 PM Registered user More Recent Posts	I'm posting this here because there's nothing in the Ultimate Survivor thread. Tina is in the final two -- you can bet on it. Both Keith and Colby are in her hip pocket. Either one will choose her to be their partner. Colby even said something tonight about how he and Tina were together. And he gave her a kiss on the lips. Elisabeth's was on the cheek. But does Tina win it all? I'm sticking to my, um, instinct and saying it's Tina and Colby in the final two. Jerri will probably vote for Colby. When the votes were cast, she still had the hots for him and had no idea how he really felt. Nick will vote for Colby because he will feel that Colby is the winner because he was the strongest and won all those challenges. Amber will go with Colby. She, like Nick, will only see the fact that he won all those challenges, so of course, he's the winner. Rodger. I've always thought he would vote for Tina. And after reading comments he has made in the last week, it only makes me more sure that he did. Elisabeth will vote for Tina. Tina is why Elisabeth made it to the final four. And she knows that. The swing vote is Alicia -- and my bet is that she will pick the female contestant to win. Alicia will appreciate Tina's skill at outwitting everyone and making it to the final two. Alicia may be pals with Jerri, but she is not Amber. She will make her own decision, not base it on what Jerri does. Conclusion: Tina is S2 champ and $1 million richer.
a fat guy named Earl	Re: And the winner is ....	#7	[-]
Posts: 18 04/27/01 12:29 AM Registered user More Recent Posts	I'm going out on a limb thinking that they got rid of Liz because she was a favorite in the Final Two. If that's right, then Tina, being pretty popular too [zero votes] would be a good target next. And look who she's in the Final Three with: The two people most likely to win immunity. Oh sure, Colby has won about a dozen challenges, but Keith handed him a few of those by screwing up [he's placed a solid number 2 (heh) in most of the immunity challenges]. In fact, the only challenge Tina has won was actually won by her family [the trivia]. She came close in the first post-merge IC [letting Keith win], but since then, nothing. Congratulations to Colby, though. Like Richard last year, he made an alliance, stated the goal of getting them to the finals, and carried it out. He also stated that he wants to face Keith in the Final Two. What're the odds he makes good on that too? The majority of the jury is Kucha. They can determine the outcome. Who did the Kuchas spend the most time with? Not the dueling alpha males. So my bet is that, for the same reason Liz went, Tina is next.
ssstefffii	Re: And the winner is ....	#8	[-]
Posts: 719 04/27/01 01:38 AM MESS member More Recent Posts	volcat, it's interesting you think Jerri didn't know how Colby felt about her at jury vote. I would have thought that they have barely spoken, and she knows his true feelings already -- partly by having had a chance to reflect and partly from every single person that has been voted into jury.
Unregistered(d)	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#9	[-]
Posts: 0 04/27/01 08:12 AM More Recent Posts	I couldnt of said it better or agree more...Keith is the "bitch date" with one of the other 2. This makes sense by them voting off Liz. They knew they couldnt compete against her in the Final 2, and they want the "bitch date" in there. They realize the game of having a perceived "jerk" of a running mate. If the unverified rumor is true about Jerri going off on Tina, could she possibly vote for Keith? Would Amber keep being Jerri's personal "yes girl" and follow along with whatever she does? This could make the jury voting very interesting.
stlousanta	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#10	[-]
Posts: 527 04/27/01 09:09 AM More Recent Posts	Complete logic exercise only. Jerri is an extremely up-front person and I can't get out of my mind her comment about Tina in her post-survivor interview on The Early Show. Jerri always had issues with Keith, but they were not about loyalty--more personality clashes. Tina has back-stabbed and so has Colby. Keith has not. And Jerri is very big on loyalty--that's the reason she was so upset about Mitchell's ousting--good play strategy though it was. Jerri also said that the jury was a very powerful place to be. And she specifically mentioned Tina. Leads me to believe that a possible loyalty tirade will be directed to Tina. If Colby were in the Final Two, I think Jerri would direct the tirade to Colby. I'm also thinking about Rodger's post-Survivor comment that Jerri and Colby played the game the hardest. That seems to be a statement about winning challenges--which they both certainly did. It also makes me believe that Colby was on the jury and that's why Rodger mentioned them together. I'm heading toward Keith and Tina in the Final Two.
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crocophile	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#11	[-]
Posts: 14094 04/27/01 11:28 AM MESS with me, I'll MESS with you More Recent Posts	Agreed withnmost Keith's ticket is punched to the F2. The winner will be either Tina or Colby in a landslide. Aone is pretty much on target for the Jury votes. I'm certainly not his biggest fan, but gosh darn it Colby deserves it. He's out-every-thinged everyone. He's my Ultimate Survivor by choice (but not necessarily my answer).
Cafe976	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#12	[-]
Posts: 644 04/27/01 03:46 PM Registered user More Recent Posts	Whew, it's windy out on the limb! I've stated that I believe in the 'fallen comrades' on the immunity challenge thread. So who knows the most? Many people would say the woman knows the most. I disagree. Looking at the individuals on the jury, I think Colby is very likely to have the broadest base of knowledge about ALL of them. I think that others will know more about certain ones among them, I do believe that, but I think Colby will wear the Ugliest Necklace Ever one more time. That means he picks Keith to go to F2 and Tina is Texas Toast. I think his comment about Tina last week (no lips on the screen if you recall) was pulled from an earlier episode and thrown in to mislead us. Colby will win, of course. And why shouldn't he, he ouplayed everyone!
kittyphx	Who has Immunity Necklace at F3 TC?	#13	[-]
Posts: 1527 04/27/01 03:48 PM More Recent Posts	Long time lurker second time poster: Posted for the first time in the vidcap thread with one response, that I was doing it wrong. I guess it belongs here. Here's what I wrote: Long time lurker, first time poster. In watching MvS's mpeg I think there may be clues as to who's wearing the immunity necklace in the head shots at Tribal Council as well as when they walk into the TC area. At the 12 sec mark there are 4 people shown before the 13 sec mark is reached. Tina, Keith, Lis in the jury and Colby. Nothing below Tina's neck is shown. There's definitely something around Keith's neck. I looks to me like the IN with a white area coming from around the back of his neck, then a darker band, a tiny orange colored area and then it looks like two strands branching below that. This is on the right side of the vid, which is the left side of his face. The right side of his face is in shadow but I could be seeing a similar banding on that side of his neck. This could be a bandana of some sort. It does not look like a collar. Colby also has something showing on the left side of his neck (his right side is blocked by his hand scratching his beard). This does not look like a necklace. It could be a collar or a backpack strap, although it's too close to his neck for that to be likely. It would help if we could figure out what that is below his hat on the left side of his face below and to the right (of the pic) of his left ear. His left hand? Part of a backpack? Does the banding I see belong to this object? I think the IN is around Keith's neck. Others in the vidcap thread were saying Colby, but based on shots of all three walking into TC.
tattsbaby	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#14	[-]
Posts: 29 04/27/01 04:41 PM More Recent Posts	I think stlousanta is right about the Jerri logic, but I don't remember her specifically mentioning Tina, but lets say your right (I'm mostly wrong anyway) than why would Jerri make all the I've got the power statements and mention Tina if Tina were not in the F2, that would make no sense. Colby and Tina both backstabbed Jerri (like stlousanta said) and those comments could have been directed at either one, which brings me back to the question "Why mention Tina?" Sure Jerri hates Keith and Keith hates Jerri but that has been known since Kel was booted. Keith made no secret that he disliked her and wanted her gone. The only time they attempted to hide there dislike for each other was when the tribes merged and that was so the Kuchas didn't figure out who had the votes. There was no backstabbing going on with Keith and Jerri. It seemed to me during that interview that Jerri was pissed at someone and since she knew Keith didn't like her I don't think it was him she was pissed at because he was doing pretty much what she expected. What blindsided her was Colby and Tina, she thought they were together and they turn around and vote her out.....I know that would piss me off. But like I said I'm usually wrong anyway
quartzeye	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#15	[-]
Posts: 3868 04/27/01 05:07 PM MESS member More Recent Posts	Based on very little new evidence and past performance Colby will win IC and take Keith with him. He has discussed the strategy of the game many times, even with his mother, he knows what it takes. I noticed last night after the IC it was Tina and Colby who walked away together, same after TC. Don't know if this is telling, but last night was the first time Colby mentioned where his alliance lay. He is playing a game for big $ and knows very well how to get there. He accumulated a lot of votes to protect his tribe and of course his own success. I know it's been thought that Tina has been the mastermind of strategy, but I think Colby has been short changed in that regard. Of course I could be way off base, all my picks were wrong last night. I should have stuck with the obvious and the challenge "king".
Unregistered(d)	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#16	[-]
Posts: 0 04/27/01 05:19 PM More Recent Posts	I think Tina is in the driver's seat. Colby said in last nights episode that his only loyalty is to Tina. This stays in line iwth his other comments that his game with Keith is over. Therefore, if he wins IC, which is very possible, after all he's well rested and well fed, he'll take Tina with him to F2. Keith knows he owes Tina. The only reason he made it post merge was because Tina gave him the pole IC. He and Colby have been at odds and there is no way Keith takes Colby along to F2 if he wins IC. Tina could go either way and still come out smelling like a rose, but she will take Keith - he's the least liked and least likely to get any votes from the jury.
quartzeye	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#17	[-]
Posts: 3868 04/27/01 05:35 PM MESS member More Recent Posts	I think Keith has a free ride to F2, whoever wins wants to be up against Keith. As Beef said above.
mrsniceguy(d1)	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#18	[-]
Posts: 6 04/27/01 07:58 PM More Recent Posts	does anyone remember that Rudy thought he had an alliance with Rich and the true alliance was with Sue. There are many similarities between I and II. Figuring out who has the true alliance from the beginning is key. My choice is Tina and Keith..they have had a solidarity of voting since the beginning and shut out Colby during Amber boot.
chairthrower(d)	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#19	[-]
Posts: 6 04/27/01 08:36 PM More Recent Posts	I think that after Colby's quote: "The only person I'm loyal to is Tina," we can not be so sure that Keith is a guaranteed lock for F2. Sure, T/C's chances against him are near 100%, but Colby's been whining about strategic voting vs conscience voting for three episodes now. Granted all of his voting to this point has been strategic, but shouldn't this morality play story arc go somewhere? We cannont rule out Keith getting the boot at TC. Tina and Colby may be more aligned than we think. Even beyond strategy.
mrsniceguy(d1)	Re: Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council	#20	[-]
Posts: 6 04/27/01 09:05 PM More Recent Posts	I think Colby is all talk. He's playing to the camera and his mom. He has never gone with his conscience.
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Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council

Episode 14 - F3 Tribal Council