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Now that I've actually read where I'm supposed to post things...sigh...

In light of the prior discussion (thanks everyone, keep the thoughts coming--even if they disagree since we need to find holes), let's consider a couple of thing from the previous episodes. Trying hard not to assume a slam-dunk at voting time against Keith--our most difficult possible Final Two to support.

Jerri forms an alliance with 4 other people in the first 3 hours of the game. Obviously was not Kel (no one liked him from walk to camp), Mad-Dog (said she wasn't in alliance), and Keith (J/K immediately clashed over where to put the flag for the camp). So the original Jerri alliance was Jerri, Amber, Mitchell, Colby, and Tina for the group of 5.

EP1 when Kel is accused of the beef jerky, Maralyn & Keith take him on canoe ride to discuss. So neither was in the Jerri alliance. EP2 is where Jerri has her infamous talk with Keith and takes over tribe cooking. EP3 Keith cooks fish but Colby remarks it doesn't buy him anything because he was just in the role of instructor. This is where Mad-Dog was voted out (Tina's promise--obviously from Day 1 with Jerri). Keith had lobbied Tina and Colby to oust Mitchell instead. Colby tells Mitchell so here's the source of Mitchell's disdain for Keith. EP4. This was where Tina lobbied Colby to oust Mitchell & keep Keith so tribe could win the challenges. Jerri says in TC that she was closer with Amber, Mitchell & Colby--thus further ostracizing Tina from the group an pulling Tina and Keith closer together. (Jerri has admitted this was a big mistake on her part.) Mitchell loses in tie with Keith due to Keith's previous vote against Mitchell in EP3. ('nother source for Mitchell's disdain of Keith).

Anyway, the T/C alliance is the older. Keith was brought along by Tina with some association with Colby. Colby promised Final Three with Jerri and Amber--we know where that ended up. So let's look at the jury possibilities knowing these facts.

Jerri - likely a vote for Keith against either Colby or Tina. She has also said post-survivor that some folks candy-coated their personalities to come across nicer than they really are. Possible reference to Colby and Tina for "hidden" issues. Note: Did not betray anyone.

Alicia - well, Alicia doesn't stand for crap. She didn't like Mike taking the canoe away from Jeff; she didn't like Kimmi's "in your face" attitude. Has bonded with Jerri. This is one upfront and honest gal who was a huge physical threat to everyone. May not like the dishonesty that got Colby and Tina to this place. Would appreciate Colby's physical strength in the challenges but maybe not the dishonesty. Note: Did not betray anyone.

Amber - note she hugged Keith when she was ousted. Colby knew about the voting plan to oust Amber but decided to vote Rodger. Seems to me this might be a ploy to curry favor with the jury. Don't think that Amber will buy into it--especially after Jerri talks to her at the ranch. Especially since the strategy picked up with Rodger and Lis ousted immediately after. A new alliance obviously had not formed excluding Colby. Note: Did not betray anyone.

Nick - may be an enigma here. Remember Vegas photo with the known Keith "haters", Colby & Mitchell. May be that Nick voted either Colby or Tina here. Didn't seem to bond well with Tina during survivor--was surprised he got a Valentine card or something from her. So possible Colby vote here--Tina not sure, could be persuaded by Alicia, Jerri, and Amber to not vote Tina. Note: Voted separately from R/L in ep where he was ousted so any betrayal or disloyalty may not be an issue.

Rodger - Now this is one up-front guy. He went with Keith to Sydney after filming even after voting for Keith. Has said Jerri and Colby played the game the hardest. Voted as part of the K's post-merger. Said that he and Mike were the best at the camping and additional food--the survival part of the game. Not good at the game strategy part of the game. With his religious principles and convictions, could be swayed to vote for the more upfront guy who had not betrayed anyone. Also seems that Keith was doing a lot around the camp. Said he felt bad that Debb asked him not to vote for her and he did anyway for tribal unity. Note: Did not betray anyone (not really in alliance with Debb--even though he felt bad--but on Mike's burn day had talked to Mike about Mike/Rodger/Lis since Nick/Alicia seemed to have formed one).

Lis - may be an enigma here. Could follow Rodger or go her own way. Could be swayed by examples of dishonesty in more open discussions at the ranch. When asked the reasons for Keith being a jerk, her example (seemed pretty lame to me for classification of someone as cocky, arrogant or a jerk) was that on Water Perch, Keith told her that he could count her goose bumps they were so big. Lis said she wanted to throw something at him. Again, seemed lame. Could re-evaluate based on what she finds out at the ranch & what Rodger thinks of it all. Note: Did not betray anyone.

Now we come to our Final Three. All started from the same tribe so they all have outlasted. At the Final Two, it will be culled to two who have outlasted. Colby stands as the champion of the challenges--long winning streak for reward and immunity. Impressive record. Tina has had no votes cast against her--itself a remarkable achievement. Keith has had votes cast against him but is still there again he has also, quite remarkably, betrayed no one to get there.

It could be argued that each of the three is there because of the other two--one to win IC's, another to keep everything pleasant, and the final one to back-up IC wins, help around the camp, and be another vote.

Colby would win if jury votes are based less on betrayal (he has at least three--Mitchell, Jerri and Amber) and more on his challenge accomplishments. Tina would win if jury votes are based less on betrayal (again, Mitchell, Jerri and Amber--though a little more iffy than Colby) and more on popularity. Keith is more of
a mix. He has no betrayal at all--in fact, voted for Mitchell instead of Mad-Dog which Tina, her best friend, did not do. Has some challenge wins. (Don't give me Tina stepping down. She was a moron to have to be asked. The only ones threatened were Jerri and Keith. She should have known to step down when they were the last two up there. Tribal survival dictated it since only Jerri and Keith were threatened due to prior votes.) Helped around camp. Is a klutz, cocky and a littlearrogant--but actually seems more "real" because of it.

Again, long post, so apologies. But let's get some good, solid discussion of the possibilities on the existing jury and what they may weigh as more important. All insights, disagreements & additions welcomed so the analyses of the jury vote possibilities can be tightened up.