S-16 Edgic (editing and logic)

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Phoenix1269		#3861	[-]
Posts: 145 (04/20/08 4:16 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Phoenix, what was your female editing theory? I'm curious, since you're one of the few level-headed Cirie supporters. oh... well.... glad you asked! My female editing theory is based upon the fact that no female winner has every received a CP episode 1 while 80% of the male winners DO receive a CP episode 1 (Aras and Tom both received MORs). Tina = Inv; V = UTR2; Jenna M= MOR4; Sandra = MORP4; Amber = UTRP1; Danni = UTR2 If you were to average this out... then the "ideal" episode 1 for a female is actually UTR2. Part 2 of this pattern is that there have been many women with a CP episode 1... who have turned into great or BIG characters, but they always seem to fall short (and some have been spectacularly blindsided)... ShiiAnn (S5); Deanna, Lil; JennaL (ASS); Steph and Angie in Palau; Cirie and Misty in S12; PG in China... even Erica in Fiji all though it was short-lived... and now Eliza! I then expanded my theory recently with inclusion of the merge episode... when i realized that the female winners have generally had a quieter merge episode than the male winners... the female winners average in at a MOR3. Tina = CPP4; V = MOR2; Jenna - OTTN3; Sandra = MOR3; Amber=CPP3; Danni = UTR2 So for this season... Cirie is the only one to really fit the E1 episode.... at a UTR2, and her merge episode is not out of line... I see she was voted a UTR2... but I had her as a MOR3 (and the vis charts actually have her rated a 3)... interesting. So that's my theory. It is based on a sub-pattern within a larger pattern. Perhaps as a female, I have been more sensitive to the way the women are edited... I don't know if this is a reflection on society or what, but based on the trend that we have had... I don't think that a CP female Episode 1 is really a good thing... and until it is proved wrong, I will continue to follow it. Thank you for asking. and Thank you for the nice compliment. *I average out the vis # and then I take a median of the actual rating
GrenadeJumper85		#3862	[-]
Posts: 4316 (04/20/08 4:17 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	That is very very interesting Phoenix! Well done! Gotta give you props on that one.
Phoenix1269		#3863	[-]
Posts: 146 (04/20/08 4:22 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	thanks :)
BlakeB717		#3864	[-]
Posts: 873 (04/20/08 5:02 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Interesting theory! --- In response to the posts by Jedi and Punk, the point I was trying to make was this: If you've read spoilers, you have information that we don't on the game as a whole. Point blank. And by saying so and so doesn't or does have spoilers, you're spoiling us. Thanks!
crzypunk2004		#3865	[-]
Posts: 3287 (04/20/08 5:05 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	that's interesting Phoenix, so a female winner has never had a CP in episode 1. One thing that makes me back up Cirie is that she is shown when she doesn't need to be, this past episode's exile island footage for example. And it seems everytime she's about to get a big stategic episode she gets a cool down the episode before. The only thing that worries me is that Cirie doesn't talk about the end game or about winning the money, I don't know if that's good or bad.
SFC		#3866	[-]
Posts: 278 (04/20/08 5:29 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Phoenix, I agree with your female winner theory. The only thing that keeps me from believing it 100% is the fact that we haven't has a female winner since Danni, so the trend may change after all this time.
SurvivorFanGP		#3867	[-]
Posts: 7168 (04/20/08 5:38 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Very interesting theory and explanation, Phoenix! Great!
ProbstFan123		#3868	[-]
Posts: 9476 (04/20/08 6:03 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It's an interesting theory, but there has only been 1 female winner since ASS, and the only visible female winner in the past 9 seasons has been Sandra. And most female winners have played a very quiet UTR game. Which is probably why they got an understated edit. Cirie and Parvati aren't playing the typical under-the-radar game of most female winners of the past. Also, we have yet to see a female win since they changed from a final 2 to a final 3 format. That may also affect the editing. Last Edited By: ProbstFan123 04/20/08 6:28 PM. Edited 1 times.
craig		#3869	[-]
Posts: 12854 (04/20/08 6:36 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The females receiving CP in episode 1? Maybe because only 1\6 female winners went to TC in episode 1 and none were a target. But Richard, Ethan , Brian, Chris, and Earl all went to TC in ep.1 (that 5\9). Chris was a boot target like Parv, and he got a CP.
GrenadeJumper85		#3870	[-]
Posts: 4317 (04/20/08 6:40 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Maybe because only 1\6 female winners went to TC in episode 1 The number is actually 2/6. Danni went to TC during the premiere episode of Guatemala.
Phoenix1269		#3871	[-]
Posts: 147 (04/20/08 6:48 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thanks everyone for the good feedback. I agree that the only possible problem is the fact it's been so long since the last female winner... But, that is why it's only a theory.... editing can change. However, as i stated before, until such time as it's proven wrong, this is one of the items i have used in factoring in my winner pick, the other edgic guidelines don't seem to follow a male/female pattern (like the Strategy factors, Invisibles, etc) so i use those to help eliminate any other contenders. For Example Natalie - Inv in Ep1... but has a string of other Invs + UTR1s. Alexis - MOR2 in Ep1, but then a string of 6 - S0s and a period of time where she was largely ignored. Amanda - UTR1 in Ep1, but no intro confessional (just the "flashback"), no confessionals at all in E1, and an Inv in E4 and has been largely ignored for the first several episodes and hasn't been terribly complex. kinda meh. So, for the only remaining female... Parv - CP4 in E1, but she has a string of 3 - S0s in a row + one extra..., she was largely ignored for several episodes (UTR / MOR for 6 episodes in a row!), the occasional bits of fluffy stuff. When i factor in my FET... Parv doesn't win. The boys, I eliminate based on th regular edgic criteria and of the remaining 3... Erik has had an INV, James is too one-dimensional and too UTR, Jason... was rated an INV, but i also feel like we have been continually bonked on the head with what a buffoon he is... so, anyway... from a process of elimination... that is why i think it's Cirie. thanks again for listening! keep up the great debates everyone, i love reading them!!!
Werwanderflugen		#3872	[-]
Posts: 108 (04/20/08 7:19 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	After Eliza's boot, I assumed that the rest of this season would be an edgic coronation of Parvati (ala DArchuleta). But I must say I LOVE the strong support and arguments for Cirie (ala DCook). It's made the past several pages an excellent read! I'm still supporting Parvati edgically, but I certainly can't rule out Cirie. I don't think anyone can, really, especially with her edgic supporters' more recent effective posts. (Sorry, I've got to gush a little about the episode, which was one of the best I've seen ever on the show. My favorite moments were the tribal council reactions: Eliza's OTTP shock, Amanda's "what the hell?!" faces, Cirie's cirieownage smug grin, and Parvati's winner-esque, committed stare. LOVE. IT.) Last Edited By: Werwanderflugen 04/20/08 7:44 PM. Edited 1 times.
Werwanderflugen		#3873	[-]
Posts: 109 (04/20/08 7:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	(whoops. double post.) Last Edited By: Werwanderflugen 04/20/08 7:43 PM. Edited 1 times.
AllMenAreIslands		#3874	[-]
Posts: 23514 (04/20/08 9:00 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Great theory, Phoenix. I for one was pushing for Sandra to be CP in ep 1 of her season. I know the application of ratings has evolved over the seasons. If we were to re-do Pearl Islands, we might come to a different conclusion for some ratings here and there. To me, showing Sandra selling her necklace to buy food, condiments, utensils etc was a CP thing to do, and should have been rated as such. The editing showed it to us not just because it was unusual; it was also a nifty way to feature the winner. I had been meh on her pre-season, but that act of hers made me like her and root for her all season. It was just so quick-thinking.
BlakeB717		#3875	[-]
Posts: 874 (04/20/08 9:38 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think we need to drop the "Airai was INV" and "S0s on Airai" and "String of neglected UTRs" arguement. They never went to TC; strategy wasn't important until the pre-merger episode (where Parvati got it). Also when you win IC you aren't shown after the first 30 minutes, and with 2 quits, your time is swallowed up. Those who were not INV during those episodes should be actually looked at because the editors tried to make sure we remembered them.
SurvivorFanGP		#3876	[-]
Posts: 7181 (04/20/08 10:16 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	And on the flip side, there have been plenty of people who were still excessively shown in previous seasons while their tribe hardly ever (or didn't at all) go to TC. It can be argued both ways, but even then, there were quite a few people who didn't recieve an INV on Airai, not just Parvati.
fat little fingers		#3877	[-]
Posts: 5478 (04/20/08 10:42 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Blake: Parvati was neutral this episode. Yes, I am mystified at all the "Parvati needs redemption to win" type comments. She has been treated with kid gloves by the eds. I promise you, pee water and hugging a big, roly-poly islander doesn't get you an N.
kmill		#3878	[-]
Posts: 1417 (04/21/08 5:47 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't care if people aren't going to be open-minded to other people's arguments. It's funny to be in a speculation forum and then say that other people's speculation isn't worthwhile. With that said, I know I'm not a regular here, but what's the significance of the HII this season (in terms of story and strategy)? And why has it always tied so strongly to Cirie? Her two biggest plays have involved getting rid of someone based on the idol: Yau-Man was booted because Cirie was paranoid about the HII. Ozzy was booted because he was open about having the idol, and Cirie was shown as the initial player to take steps against him. With the idol being re-hidden per Ozzy's post-show interview, does that mean we'll once again see Cirie duking it out with the idol/holder? Perhaps down the road she may be taken out by the idol or she may find it herself. I know it's not an "endgame" story, but it is certainly RATIONAL justification for her biggest plays so far and (IMO) is much better strategy than "anyone but me". We know Parvati's story is all about getting to the end, but having to betray others to get there. I feel as though Cirie's story has been with the HII all along, off the top of my head, I can't think about ANYONE else talk about how threatening the HII is, just people acknowledging that Ozzy had it.
briand73		#3879	[-]
Posts: 54 (04/21/08 8:30 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	kmill wrote: With the idol being re-hidden per Ozzy's post-show interview, does that mean we'll once again see Cirie duking it out with the idol/holder? Perhaps down the road she may be taken out by the idol or she may find it herself. I know it's not an "endgame" story, but it is certainly RATIONAL justification for her biggest plays so far and (IMO) is much better strategy than "anyone but me". We know Parvati's story is all about getting to the end, but having to betray others to get there. I feel as though Cirie's story has been with the HII all along, off the top of my head, I can't think about ANYONE else talk about how threatening the HII is, just people acknowledging that Ozzy had it. I would assume that we'll find out the answer to this next week. As of right now we don't know about any HII existing in the game. If there is one and it plays some part, I would expect the story of it to be introduced early next week.
craig		#3880	[-]
Posts: 12864 (04/21/08 8:59 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Cirie vs the idol is a continuation of her S12 story. I'd be paranoid about the idol too if I faced Terry and lost a million primarily because the idol permitted both alpha males to be immune at F4.

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S-16 Edgic (editing and logic)

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