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Sucks Brain Trust - Speculated Boot Order from Spoils

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mtj1282		#21	[-]
Posts: 478 (02/03/08 4:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	jensamember36 wrote: 7o62x39 wrote: . The Blunder, a Digression - Jeff's clue on the Blunder includes, "I know when it happened that James was thinking, thank God." So James is present at the Blunder. This means the Blunderer is either a Fave pre-merge/jury OR anyone but James after merge/jury. Assuming Fever's boot list, this means the Blunderer is either Yau-Man, Cirie, Joel, Jonathan, Mikey B, Eliza, Jason, Erik, Ami, Ozzy. Its possible to that it could be people believed to outlast James if James witnesses the Blunder as a Juror Alexis, Amanda, Parvati and Natalie. James says thank God because its not him with the Blunder goat AND because its Yau. How poetic. Yau must either misunderstands that the E1-II is good through the first TC not the first elimination or leaves it at camp by accident or for some reason maybe thinks the TC is to just formally snuff out Jon's torch. So your boot order is E1 Jon (Quits) E1 Yau (Blunder) E2 Mary .... uhm, i don't think that means anything, it could have happened with James on the jury, or at losers camp, i'm sure ppl talk about what happens there they have handlers with them at losers lodge all the time to keep them from discussing anything related to the game!
MJSLawrence		#22	[-]
Posts: 616 (02/03/08 4:15 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It's a twisty little story but I hope it's not true...losing Fairplay AND Yau in the first episode would be a letdown...
survivorready		#23	[-]
Posts: 12 (02/03/08 11:03 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think that JFP quits right after the favorites loose the first IC... he will say "f--k this, I know I am going home"... then the producers will decide that the favorites will still be heading to tribal council b/c this is better than having both tribes going to tribal in a later episode... Also, it makes for a great first episode b/c there is so much drama going on... SO i guess at TC, Yau-Man has to go... but the thing is that I don't think Yau wins the initial immunity idol... it has to be somebody else...
7o62x39	Replies	#24	[-]
Posts: 57 (02/03/08 2:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Note: This thread spun off from S16 bootlist in spoilers because I got sick and tired of people whining about using spec in that thread used to fill in the story from spoils. I thought I had MESS blessing to set up a spec boot list from spoils there but got locked. You can't post spec if you know spoils in the spec thread so this is a spec from spoil safe zone. Unfortunately some of the continuity from previously debated points has been broken including for example jensamember36, pointing out that James' quote re the Blunder could have been anytime including as a member of the jury. Jensamember is absolutely correct. There are posts in the S16 bootlist thread from January in which the possible scenarios of James' comment was thought out. I like that the Blunder occurs early because IMO, Jeff's comments in the interview tend to discuss early events and because if the Blunder doesn't involve the E1-IIs then it can't occur until both an HII is found AND James is back at a TC. It kind of looks like we don't get many more Fave eliminations before the Jury. So if the Blunder isn't E1 or E2, it won't happen until at least Eliza's 1st jury boot, which I believe will be E8. But, nothing requires the Blunder to be E1. It just simply COULD be here and fits as a puzzle piece in the idea that a TC occurs E1 AFTER Jon quits. Someone cracks on me as having zero cred since I'm a low post count guy. Hmmm I had about 500 posts as 7o62x36 from before Survivor 1 - when I was posting on EZ Sucks when it was Reality Sucks and we were mocking Real World - through early Survivor Season 2, when tiring of the trolls on this board, me and many other spoilers left Sucks to form the original private spoiling board Ellipsiiis. Many moons ago the post counts on EZ reset back to zero. I have been spoiling and posting extensively through Survivor 15 on the private Ellipsiiis and then Acme spoiling clubs as well as Pygmy Island. But even if I was a total newbie, so what? I've met lots of great spoilers over the years who were spoiling for the first time. What a person says stands on its own ... attacking the source as a "non-expert" is a logical error. Several people commented on the idea that Jon doesn't quit but at TC1 simply says vote me off. This is valid. And obviously is a likely source of error in the Jon-Yau E1 boot theory. All boot orders at some point has to rely on some spoiled info being correct. I assume Fever's spoiling is correct and spec from there. Jon might even go all the way to TC, and there say 'f... this, vote me out, I quit." To which Jeffy asks, "Are you asking to be voted out or are you quitting right here?" Jon could reply either way, we don't know. Cheers 7 Last Edited By: 7o62x39 02/03/08 2:46 PM. Edited 1 times.
ItsChevy		#25	[-]
Posts: 468 (02/03/08 4:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I like your scenarios...If they are right, Cool...and if they are wrong, well, you are the only one that has to pay for it. Not anyone else...So, just let people blast away...Sticks and Stones baby, sticks and stones. (_)
survivorscanner		#26	[-]
Posts: 2 (02/03/08 5:00 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	the person who locked my thread is going to look foolish in 3 months.
Riliss		#27	[-]
Posts: 3177 (02/03/08 5:54 PM) Ugly on the inside Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A scanner, darkly?
CSCin3D		#28	[-]
Posts: 7208 (02/03/08 6:27 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Why hasn't this fanfic been locked?
7o62x39	Details of Boot Orderings (A & B)	#29	[-]
Posts: 58 (02/04/08 10:42 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	There are a lot of assumptions, spoilings and guesses that could be the cause(s) of error in our working Boot Order A, which is currently: Boot Order A: Episode 1 - Jon (Quits) & Yau (Blunder & Blindsiding), Yau's unused E1-II gets redeployed by the finder of HII as fake HII. Episode 2 - Mary (Blindsiding, Yau-Mary is the 1st of the in a row blinsidings), Michael is brutally frank with his take on Mary at the TC. Mary is horrified and never saw it coming. Episode 3 - Tracy (TC Elimination) / Kathleen (Removal either E3/4). Michael continues to attack weak links, going after Tracy bluntly. Episode 4 - Michael (Either a Blindsiding or an injury removal) Episode 5 - Jonathan or Cirie (Blindsiding, slighly prefer Jonathan going, Michael-Jonathan/Cirie is the 2nd in a row blindsidings, Yau and Jonathan/Cirie are the ) Episode 6 - Chet (Asks to be voted out due to foot cut on coral) - Episode 7 - Recap Show Episode 8 - The two tribes are moved together to a single camp, but they continue to compete for tribal immunity. The Recruits win the IC and Eliza is blindsided by the menage a quatre alliance ... I think that Amanda / Pavrati will have played a double game to E8. They will play to Ozzy/James sexually and placate the other Fave Females' delusion of an All-Female Alliance. The Jury of 9 begins here with Eliza. Episode 9 - The two tribes have previously moved together to a single camp, but they continue to compete for tribal immunity. Either the Recruits win the IC and Ami is eliminated by the menage a quatre alliance OR the Faves win the IC and a Recruit male Joel/Erik maybe Jason gets blindsided ... the 3rd in a row blindsiding. Episode 10 - We merge the tribes here at 10 left and compete for II. Details are sketchy because we're not sure of what went down E9 and therefore if we merge 5-5 or 6-4 advantage Faves. I think this is where fake HII could turn the game. This also could be a double elimination epsiode, we need one double elimination E10/11/12/13 to begin E14 at 5. Episode 11 - Likely the Family visit show. Either Alexis (most likely) or Jason wins the RC and chooses their friend Natalie and Natalie's mom to join this RC winner and her/his family member on the reward. Things work best here if a Recruit (Jason) goes home setting up the blindsiding and/or betrayals of James/Ozzie E12/13 - James and Ozzie are eliminated (Cirie deploys real HII?) E14 - Begins with Pavrati, Amanda, Natalie, Alexis and mostly likely Cirie (or Jonathan). ---------------------------------------- But for our E1 and E2 boot order Jon-Yau-Mary - here are some spoils to consider: SurfanEVER: Dec. 31 2007,13:07 Honestly,my source aren't allowed to tell any spoilers, even to me. But he slipped and told me the thing about JFP...Bout him quitting the game after The fans won the IC...I mean after the idol was given to the fans(just right after the challenge)... He works on the show, so this spoiler can be reliable... This supports the quits before TC yeahitsright: 12/18/07 12:52 AM Back again. You peeps really won't have to wait that long to see your first quitter, there's one right at the beginning. Hate to say it, but my main man Fairplay decided to drop out. Poor guy, but at least the first person to join him had big tits. Mary's gone #2. This supports the "quits" but conflicts with "Mary's gone #2" SurvivorFever: At least three quitters/medevacs One player: "Vote me out" Two players: "taken out" of game Jonny Fairplay - First boot - confirmed with tip to SF.net Mary - 2nd boot - also confirmed by tip to SF Kathy - out early - SurvivorFever has confirmed that it is indeed Kathy who was taken out of the game for mental/emotional reasons For me Fever has the most cred of the common spoil sources, lets take each of these one by one: "At least three quitters/medevacs" Jon is a quitter. Kathleen is a removal and with the cutting of her fingers a likely medevac. Note the curious "at least" - I have previous posted on this and concluded that Fever's source has partial knowledge of the game and sees several people playing on with severe injury that the source speculates may result in those people eventually having to be removed. "One player: "Vote me out" The $64,000 question for all of you trying to predict E1 is this Chet asking to be voted out E6 due to his cut foot and perhaps dysentery and/or a serious infection (either could help resolve his weight loss and pre-jury elimination) OR is this Jon quitting at TC1. This is the first issue all spoilers must address ... do we have a TC AFTER Jon quits E1 or not? "Two players: "taken out" of game" - We know Kathleen is one ... the second is a mystery if Chet asking to be removed at TC is correct. I think this second removal is related to the "brutal" pre-jury challenges and have thought it may explain Michael's pre-merge elimination. "Jonny Fairplay - First boot - confirmed with tip to SF.net ... Mary - 2nd boot - also confirmed by tip to SF" The term boot is used to describe both Jon's and Mary's eliminations. This is really problematic for Yau going E1! If this is literally correct and then, my Jon - Yau is wrong and the boot order (Call this Boot Order B) should be, If Jon's quitting results in no TC: Boot Order B - Episode 1 - Jon (Quits) and his elimination is either formalized at a TC, he walks off the TC before any vote (cancelling the TC and keeping Yau's E1-II live), or he quits before the TC and the TC is cancelled (also keeping Yau's E1-II live). Episode 2 - Mary (Blindsided) Michael is brutally frank with his take on Mary at the TC. Mary is horrified and never saw it coming. Episode 3 (Double elimination episode) - Tracy (TC Elimination) / Michael continues to attack weak links, going after Tracy bluntly. Yau blunders by leaving his E1-II at home, thinking it has expired, but since the TC Episode one was "cancelled" his II is still live. I push Kathleen's removal back firmly to E4 so that this double elmination episode doesn't get cancelled. (The producers must have intended for there to be several double elminations in order to get to 5 by E14). Episode 4 - Michael (Either a Blindsiding or an injury removal), Kathleen Removed From here on Boot List A and Boot List B are common: As much fun as I've had with the provocative Boot List A, Occam prefers B and so should I. But I'm on the hook for A! Your thoughts are welcome, 7 Last Edited By: 7o62x39 02/04/08 11:27 AM. Edited 4 times.
Oowatanite		#30	[-]
Posts: 4681 (02/04/08 10:57 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	What's Occam again ?
7o62x39	Deconstructing "the Flight" Spoil	#31	[-]
Posts: 59 (02/04/08 11:11 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Here are the three post on Tw/oP Babalu: Dec 6, 2007 @ 10:29 pm Post#95 Well, apparently Continental Micronesia is the official airline of reality show spoilers because Jeff Probst is on my sister's flight today. I don't have any details because she just left me a voicemail message and because she was sort of shrieking, but I'm guessing the flight was from Guam to Honolulu and that the season has just wrapped. Babalu: Dec 7, 2007 @ 11:36 am My sister got home last night and said that JFP was also on the Probst flight from Guam to Honolulu. When I mentioned the rumors about a 1/2-former contestants/1/2-newbies season, she agreed that seemed likely since, sitting next to JFP on the plane was a buxom blonde named Tracy (unknown if that's her real name or a fake name). Tracy said she'd been one of the survivors and that they were all on this flight. Kat (sister) didn't recognize anyone other than Probst (the only one in first class), JFP, and an "older Asian man," whom we believe to be Yau Man. When she's home for more than a day, I'll have her come over and show her pictures of some of the rumored contestants to see if she can ID anyone else. Babalu: Dec 8, 2007 @ 2:58 pm Post#100 That could be, crazypunk2004, but my sister got the impression that the whole cast/production crew were on the flight from what Tracy said. I'm also not sure why Probst would be on the flight with only the pre-jury boots or why only part of the group would be coming back to/through Honolulu. I did try to ask Kat about Cirie and Jonathan and anybody from the current season, and she said she didn't recognize anybody like that (but that she's really bad at faces), so you could be right. ETA: I think it's very likely that anybody returning to the Mainland from Palau would go through Guam, so - while it wouldn't be surprising that the early boots were on Guam, it also wouldn't be surprising that the later boots/Final 3/Probst/crew would also return via Guam. This post has been edited by Babalu: Dec 8, 2007 @ 3:01 pm. When you actually read these post ... the spoil lists which reduce this to (paraphrased) 'Jon and Yau and Tracy on the same flight' really miss a lot of the detail. The post has cred as it names Tracy and describes her correctly. A Guam - Honolulu flight would likely be on a 747? (More than 2 engines on this route???) or some other very large aircraft so seeing everyone on the flight might be difficult. One thought was that the Loser Lounge was off Palau on Guam. For a bunch of reasons this makes sense. BUT - Why is Jeff on this flight, since obviously he was at the last TC the day before on Palau I would welcome others' thoughts on this. 7
7o62x39	Occam	#32	[-]
Posts: 60 (02/04/08 11:15 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Wiki does a nice job with explaining Occam, Occam prefers Boot List B over Boot List A ... Occam's razor (sometimes spelled Ockham's razor) is a principle attributed to the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. The principle states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory. The principle is often expressed in Latin as the lex parsimoniae ("law of parsimony" or "law of succinctness"): "entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem", or "entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity". This is often paraphrased as "All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best." In other words, when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selecting the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities. It is in this sense that Occam's razor is usually understood. Originally a tenet of the reductionist philosophy of nominalism, it is more often taken today as a heuristic maxim (rule of thumb) that advises economy, parsimony, or simplicity, often or especially in scientific theories. Last Edited By: 7o62x39 02/04/08 11:18 AM. Edited 1 times.
glofindel		#33	[-]
Posts: 23 (02/04/08 11:32 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	S-Fever & TDT both say that Ami is pre-jury. "Boot List A" has Ami making the jury. Are you behind in your reading or do you have reason to believe something different?
7o62x39	Ami & Mary Changed on Fever	#34	[-]
Posts: 61 (02/04/08 12:07 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thanks ... Ami has been changed from "mid-game" to "pre-jury" ... I think due to the questions we've raised here about a TC1 if Jon quits before the TC, Fever has also changed Mary to ... "Early Boot - Episode 2" Ami pre-jury means that either Boot List A & B are based on an incorrect Game Design Assumption - Jury of 9, Merge to a Single Camp at 12, Completed Merge and II at 10 and/or The "?" Faves - Cirie and Jonathan both outlive Ami I'll re-work this new info into a Boot List C Thanks 7
7o62x39	Boot List C - With Ami Pre-Merge/Jury	#35	[-]
Posts: 62 (02/04/08 1:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Early Game Boot Order C1 - Assumption - There is a TC E1 AFTER Jon quits Episode 1 - Jon (Quits) & Yau (Blunder & Blindsiding), Yau's unused E1-II gets redeployed by the finder of HII as fake HII. Episode 2 - Mary (Blindsiding, Yau-Mary is the 1st of the in a row blinsidings), Michael is brutally frank with his take on Mary at the TC. Mary is horrified and never saw it coming. Episode 3 - Tracy (TC Elimination) / Kathleen (Removal either E3/4). Michael continues to attack weak links, going after Tracy bluntly. Episode 4 - Michael (Either a Blindsiding or an injury removal) Early Game Boot Order C2 - Assumption - There is a no TC E1 or Jon quits and is voted out at this TC Episode 1 - Jon (Quits) and his elimination is either formalized at a TC, he walks off the TC before any vote (cancelling the TC and keeping Yau's E1-II live), or he quits before the TC and the TC is cancelled (also keeping Yau's E1-II live). Episode 2 - Mary (Blindsided) Michael is brutally frank with his take on Mary at the TC. Mary is horrified and never saw it coming. Episode 3 (Double elimination episode) - Tracy (TC Elimination) / Michael continues to attack weak links, going after Tracy bluntly. Yau blunders by leaving his E1-II at home, thinking it has expired, but since the TC Episode one was "cancelled" his II is still live. I push Kathleen's removal back firmly to E4 so that this double elimination episode doesn't get cancelled. (The producers must have intended for there to be several double eliminations in order to get to 5 by E14). Episode 4 - Michael (Either a Blindsiding or an injury removal), Kathleen Removed Both start here with 14 left Mid-Game Boot Order C3 - Game Design Assumption - 14 Episodes Including a Recap Show, E14 begins with 5, Final 3 before a Jury of 9 - Exact Merge detail is unknown Episode 5 - Ami (Blindsiding, Michael-Ami is the 2nd in a row blindsiding). Cirie betrays Ami and joins Menage a quatre Alliance for a 5. Why the Menage a quatre alliance kills Ami ahead of Eliza who we know works Cirie for a Pavrati kill E1 is unknown. We know Ami has gone to Exile at least once. They must know (from Cirie?) that she doesn't have the HII, or at least won't use it. Episode 6 - Chet (Asks to be voted out due to foot cut on coral) - 12 Left Episode 7 - Recap Show Episode 8 - The two tribes are moved together to a single camp, but they continue to compete for tribal immunity. The Recruits win the IC and Eliza is eliminated by the menage a quatre alliance plus Cirie ... This would not be a blindsiding. Eliza is 1^st Juror Voting for Eliza - Amanda Ozzie Pavrati James Cirie Voting for Pavrati? - Eliza, Jonathan? Episode 9 - The two tribes have previously moved together to a single camp, but they continue to compete for tribal immunity. Either the Recruits win the IC and Jonathan (more likely) or Cirie is eliminated by the menage a quatre alliance OR the Faves win the IC and a Recruit male Erik (most likely, maybe Joel) possibly Jason gets blindsided ... Episode 10 - We merge the tribes here at 10 left and compete for II. Details are sketchy because we're not sure of what went down E9 and therefore if we merge 5-5 or 6-4 advantage Faves. I think this is where fake HII could turn the game. This also could be a double elimination epsiode, we need one double elimination E10/11/12/13 to begin E14 at 5. Mid-Game Boot Order C4 - Game Design Assumption - 14 Episodes Including a Recap Show, E14 begins with 5, Final 3 before a Jury of 7 - Exact Merge detail is unknown (I do not like this boot order much, its hard to make sense of, so I think a jury of 9 is still a better assumption) Episode 5 - Ami (Blindsiding, Michael-Ami is the 2nd in a row blindsiding). Cirie betrays Ami and joins Menage a quatre Alliance for a 5. Why the Menage a quatre alliance kills Ami ahead of Eliza who we know works Cirie for a Pavrati kill E1 is unknown. We know Ami has gone to Exile at least once. They must know (from Cirie?) that she doesn't have the HII, or at least won't use it. Episode 5/6/7 we also need one of these to be a double elimination - E5 works best. If we assume Ami is E5 Fave then Chet would likely go here in a double TC. Episode 6 - If the Recruits win the IC then Jonathan/Cirie goes here. (Hard to figure Jonathan before Eliza pre-merge/jury) its also hard to see Cirie before Eliza … but if the Faves win IC , the recruits have to boot Joel. Solving Episode 9 works best with a Joel kill here, but explaining why the Recruits would kill off Joel, even expecting a merge is difficult. Episode 7 - If the Recruits win the IC then whoever is left - Jonathan/Cirie goes here. Jonathan is easier than Cirie but either before Eliza is hard. If the Faves win IC , the recruits have to boot Joel. Solving Episode 9 works best with a Joel kill here, but explaining why the Recruits would kill off Joel, even expecting a merge is difficult. This Jury of 7 means that assuming Jon, Yau, Mary, Kathleen, Michael and Tracy were eliminated in the early game, ... then to get from 8 Faves & 6 Recruits to 10 and the Jury we must: Eliminate Ami & Chet (leaving 7F & 5R) AND 2 of these 3: Jonathan/Joel/Cirie In whatever order and then explain Eliza as the next elimination and 1st Juror. Episode 8 - Recap Show with 10 left alive ... either 6F & 4R or 5F and 5R ... Episode 9 - Merge to II and begin Jury - With a jury of 7 beginning with Eliza - If the merge is 5-5 because Cirie and Jonathan went, why Eliza goes first is hard to figure and be followed by the male Recruits. This is really a mess. A jury of 7 with Eliza going first works best if we merged 6-4. The Faves perhaps don't trust Eliza which means that Jonathan almost MUST be the earlier kill otherwise they'd have to have kileld Cirie and assume that they've broken Jonathan from Eliza. Episode 10 - We merged E9 at 10 left and compete for II - resolving E10 is complicated because E9 makes little sense. End Game Boot Order C5 (Based on Either C1 or 2 early and C3 Mid) - Game Design Assumption - 14 Episodes Including a Recap Show, E14 begins with 5, Final 3 before a Jury of 9 Episode 11 - Likely the Family visit show. Either Alexis (most likely) or Jason wins the RC and chooses their friend Natalie and Natalie's mom to join this RC winner and her/his family member on the reward. Things work best here if a Recruit (Jason) goes home setting up the blindsiding and/or betrayals of James/Ozzie E12/13 - James and Ozzie are eliminated (Cirie deploys real HII?) E14 - Begins with Pavrati, Amanda, Natalie, Alexis and mostly likely Cirie (or Jonathan). Last Edited By: 7o62x39 02/04/08 2:15 PM. Edited 5 times.
7o62x39	TDB's Bootlist on Skills	#36	[-]
Posts: 63 (02/04/08 1:31 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A solid Spec from Spoil person TDB, has this list up on Skills. I hadn't seen this list until today and didn't use it in constructing A, B or C. TDB uses a 7 jury assumption. In my C4 mid game, I try to use a jury of 7 assumption and run into possible but difficult to explain boots. TDB violates Fever with Erik out pre-jury/merge. TDB also assumes that Jon either quits at TC or his quit cancels the TC. http://www.survivorskills.com/cgi-bin/ikonboard/ikonboard.cgi?act=ST;f=96;t=5887;st=60 But this is a solid list ( I like TDB's detail regarding Amanda's late game and will cite it in improved versions of our working boot order in the future). Everyone is assuming that there will be a 9 person jury (My edit: Is this us here on Sucks??). Just going by all of the information from different sites , I think that there will only be a 7 person jury, with a merge at 10. Here is my thinking: Pre Merge: Episode 1: (Days 1-3) JFP quits, Yau-Man's idol is useless. Episode 2: (Days 4-6) Mary booted, a Fan uses their idol. Episode 3: (Days 7-8) Double boot: Tracy and Yau-Man booted. Episode 4: (Day 9-11) Kathy removed from game. Episode 5: (Day 12-14) Mickey B booted by alliance of Joel, Jason, Alexis and Natalie. Episode 6: (Day 15) Double boot: Chet who was injured in challenge (coral injury) asks to be booted and Ami (SF says she is mid game, no mention of jury) are booted. Episode 7: (Days 16-18) Erik booted. Episode 8: (Days 19-21) Jonathan booted. Post Merge/Jury: Episode 9: (Days 22-24) Merge on Day 22 and on Day 24 Eliza booted (SF: Eliza is first juror). Eliza is booted because she is the only one who would most likely try to work with the fans and the favorites already have a 6-4 advantage over the fans. Episode 10: (Days 25-27) Joel booted. Episode 11: (Days 28-30) Jason booted (SF: Jason is mid jury). Episode 12: (Days 31-33) Amanda turns on "couples alliance" and votes with Cirie, Alexis and Natalie to vote out Ozzy (SF: Ozzy is mid jury). Jeff made a comment on how Amanda knows when to change up the game when she needs to (found at SurvivorSucks). Episode 13: (Days 34-36) James booted (SF: James is on jury). Episode 14: (Days 37-39) Final 5: Parvati, Amanda, Cirie, Alexis and Natalie. From here, any order can happen. Again, this is just a guess I made putting all of the spoilers that are currently out there together. Just a side note: in S10 in Palau there were 20 people and a 7 person jury that started in episode 9 with Coby. It could happen again here because they are doing some of the same things that they did in Palau like the two II at the start of the game. Edited by TDB on Feb. 02 2008,14:28 Last Edited By: 7o62x39 02/04/08 1:42 PM. Edited 2 times.
Kirblar		#37	[-]
Posts: 5522 (02/04/08 2:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I tried to bring up the fact that a Jury of 9 would be unlikely without the 5/5/5/5 racial quotas that created it!
danieloveami		#38	[-]
Posts: 1 (02/04/08 2:28 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	TheSpoilerKing said that Ami arrived in the Jury. TDT and Fever say that not enough Ami in jury, Really is very confusing : / In which the spoilers you trust more?
AmightyRo		#39	[-]
Posts: 23 (02/04/08 3:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	danieloveami wrote: TheSpoilerKing said that Ami arrived in the Jury. TDT and Fever say that not enough Ami in jury, Really is very confusing : / In which the spoilers you trust more? TDT and Fever. Yes I do. :)
tullfan2		#40	[-]
Posts: 2382 (02/04/08 6:32 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I would take Survivor Fever's info as the most reliable. SF was the first to post about the two showmances which was later confirmed in interviews by Jeff Probst. For longevity, as of today SF has: pre-jury - Jon, Yau-man, Tracy, Mary, Kathy, Chet, Ami jury or better - Eliza (first juror), Erik, Jason, Natalie, Alexis, Ozzy, James, Amanda, Parvati ? - Cirie, Jonathan, Joel, MikeyB In the press conference thread, there is a photo of what is speculated to be the last 6 remaining favorites. This photo is speculated to have been taken after the game ended because the many of the contestants appear to have lost weight (especially Cirie). It couldn't have been taken during the game because Amanda has on eye shadow and Parvati is wearing makeup. Yau-man, JFP, Ami and Jonathan are not in the photo. The fact that SF has since designated Ami as a pre-jury boot provides more support that this is indeed a photo of the last 6 remaining favorites. Since Eliza is the first juror, Jonathan is also a pre-jury boot. With a jury of 7, there are 10 pre-jury boots. That would mean that 2 of Cirie, Joel and MikeyB are booted pre-jury. If the photo is to be believed and was taken post-game, then Cirie can't be one of them. otherwise she would be with the Loser Lounge group. I don't see the fans being stupid enough to vote out Joel pre-merge. I doubt that there is a tribal swap this season otherwise there would have been a good chance that at least one of the 2 showmances would have been likely to have been split. A tribal swap would also undermine the whole fan vs. favorites theme. At this point, I'm leaning toward a 9 person jury with JFP, Mary, Tracy, Yau-man, Kathleen, Jonathan, Ami and Chet as the 8 pre-jury boots. I believe that MikeyB makes it further than initially thought and that the post that he made Final 10 could be correct. I'm leaning toward Erik as the second juror after Eliza and MikeyB as the contestant that makes the serious blunder just after the merger. MikeyB seems like the contestant that could provide both intentional and unintentional humor. Since Probst said that he liked MikeyB, I doubt that he is booted for personaity reasons.

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