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Text from 2/1/08, Thread Title changed 2/2/08 and again 2/14/2008 (text unchanged)

Starting with SURVIVORFEVER's spoil sheet:

Fairplay: Short Timer
Mary: Early Boot - Episode 2
Chet: Out Pre-Jury
Kathleen: Out Pre-Merge
Tracy: Out Pre-Merge
Yau-Man: Out Pre-Merge

Cirie: ?
Joel: ?
Jonathan: ?
Mikey B: ?

Eliza: First Juror
Jason: Early-Mid Jury?
Erik: Makes Jury?
Ami: Mid-Game
James: Makes Jury
Ozzy: Mid-Jury

Alexis: Mid-Jury to Late Game?
Amanda: Mid-Jury to Late Game
Parvati: Mid-Jury to Late Game
Natalie: Late Game?

Fever and quotes from Jeff or other CBS types are the primary spoiler lists used, adding information from others spoil sheets with cred only when it doesn't disagree with Fever or direct public CBS sources …

Then given:

GAME DESIGN ASSUMPTION - The working assumption is that by design the Producer's would have intended to eliminate 8 in the first 6 episodes to allow a recap show E7 and then a jury of 9 to begin E8. Two additional double eliminations episodes would have been required in their original plans after the jury is formed, one of which is E14, the finale, which begins with 5. We know (from CBS public sources) that E1 has each tribe competing among themselves for two IIs - which must be used the next time the holder of that II is at TC. We also assume that there are no pre-jury swaps in order to perverse the Fans v Faves season context. Anti-pagonging game design will be through multiple idols, a one or two episode(s) between the jury and the merge (meaning individual II) when the tribes will live together at a single camp.

Episode 1 "You Guys are Dumber than You Look" - We begin with the Faves arriving and being instructed by Probst to hide around a corner. Eliza squats down right there and pees right through her bathing suit in front of all. The Recruits show up next and Jeff asks them if they want to know who they're playing against. Cirie emerges first, and Fairplay with his "Will Lie 4 Food" hat is last. "When they first meet on the beach and discover who they're playing against there's this initial moment of worship from the fans for the favorites. Then by the first challenge there was such animosity toward each other." Jeff Probst (TV Guide Channel Preview).

The rain starts pouring down. The Recruits are somewhat giddy. Then we have an individual immunity comp where the 20 swim out to an island and search for two limited IIs. Each tribe can only win one of these IIs. "For the open of the show we're going to start off with both tribes separated...an impromptu challenge where they have to swim across the water to another island where there are two individual immunity idols, one for each tribe. The first two people who get 'em, get to use them. The trick is, you have to use it the first time you go to Tribal Council." Jeff Probst (TV Guide Channel Preview).

Thanks to VolcanicGlass's killer screen cap spoil, we know Yau wins this II, the Recruit II winner is unknown, other than its probably not Mary. The winners of this II are known to all, Yau's walking around with his. So it is not something that gets sprung.

Day 2 Yau makes fire without flint … eyeglasses? Eliza seals her fate by approaching Cirie about the ménages a quatre Alliance ((Ozzy=Amanda)+(Pavrati=James)). Eliza proposes to target Pavrati. Cirie has already done some bonding with Ami. Dalton's EW story states, "on DAY 2 Eliza confides in Cirie and tells her she wants Parvati gone first because she has an alliance with Ozzy, Amanda, and James. Eliza tells Cirie they need Ozzy for challenges." Jonathan has approached Eliza. Yau and Fairplay have formed an odd couple of sorts.

What happens to alliance structure of the Faves can be reverse engineered from known spoils. Yau is eventually out early but can't be the first Fave after Fairplay since he has E1-II.

OR CAN HE? Yau can be the first Fave boot if 1) Fairplay quits at TC, after Yau has played E1-II, not right after the IC or 2) Yau is the Blunder.

Then we have the Tribal Immunity with the carts won by the Recruits. Jon may quit right then and there. The idea that we have an RC involving building fire is wrong. Yau starts fire without flint on Day 2 at 11:45 in the morning. The vidcaps are of this not an RC.

Now we can't in my mind end Episode 1, without a TC. Why? 1) it sucks to open the season with Jon quitting. 2) The Producers must have intended an early double elimination to get the show down from a chaos of 20, to get 8? Eliminated in the first 6 episodes so with Jon quitting they just advance the planned double TC for say E2/3 up to E1.

Day 3 we have John Kirhoffer telling us about tribal immunity challenge (Challenges Producer - TV Guide Channel Preview): The gist of this challenge is to assemble wheels that are puzzle pieces made out of wood. Put them on a cart and then take that cart and transport it through the jungle with some people to the other end where you will disassemble the cart and the wheels and use those pieces again for a final turnstile puzzle that will raise a flame. And we have a bunch of vidcaps of it.

Now we've got some thinking to do. The conventional wisdom is a reverse engineered assumption that the Recruits win since Jon is the known first boot. This is flawed if Jon quits right before the IC. Occam prefers a Fave IC loss, but we still have to deal with the issue of a tribal council or not.

There are 3 possibilities:

1 - Jon quits right after the IC and is ONE of the GUYS who is dumber than he looks since Pavrati has at least Eliza's vote and possibly many others. The TC is cancelled since Jon has quit. No TC is kind of a limp way to end E1. I don't like this option much.

2 - Jon quits right after the Fave lose the IC and is ONE of the GUYS who is dumber than he looks since Pavrati has at least Eliza's vote and possibly many others. But the TC is on and we get a second Fave eliminated E1. Mary, remember, is spoiled as the "2^nd boot" which could mean literally the "2^nd boot" as opposed to the 2^nd elimination.

3 - Jon quits right before the IC, the Faves win (Jon is dumb) and Mary is voted out by the Recruits in a blindsiding, since she was doing a good job of socializing but had actually not formed alliances which prevail (dumb maybe???). I like this option least. We have some stuff indicating that the Faves are accused of cheating by the Recruits - building animosity. Hard to see how this cheating happens in the II-comp and there IS NO RC. I need Mary enough time to get blindsided, 3 days could work, but not well. I need Mary to have enough time to piss off Michael for the first of his TC performances of calling people out, 3 days could work but not well. And this doesn't solve the riddle of the dumb GUYS in the title. What's dumb about being blindsided? And would CBS want to hype opening S16 Uber Fans v Faves with Jon quitting and a dumb Uber Fan?

People, isn't the most likely scenario Option 2? Jon quits alright, right after the Faves lose the IC Day3. And Jeff happily tells him to get his DUMB ass off the set. But we still have a TC.

And here's the Blunder and the second Dumber than you guys look. Yau leaves the E1-II at camp.

The Blunder, a Digression - Jeff's clue on the Blunder includes, "I know when it happened that James was thinking, thank God." So James is present at the Blunder. This means the Blunderer is either a Fave pre-merge/jury OR anyone but James after merge/jury. Assuming Fever's boot list, this means the Blunderer is either Yau-Man, Cirie, Joel, Jonathan, Mikey B, Eliza, Jason, Erik, Ami, Ozzy. Its possible to that it could be people believed to outlast James if James witnesses the Blunder as a Juror Alexis, Amanda, Parvati and Natalie.

Another little tidbit to chew on is, "I can tell you that the idols play a major part in this season. Capital letters. They do have more impact than I think they've ever had. They have more impact this season than ever before."

James says thank God because its not him with the Blunder goat AND because its Yau. How poetic.

Yau must either misunderstands that the E1-II is good through the first TC not the first elimination or leaves it at camp by accident or for some reason maybe thinks the TC is to just formally snuff out Jon's torch.

One of the Faves comes back to camp and stuffs the expired Yau II into their bag to be deployed later as the fake HII

I'll eat crow if I'm wrong or demand worship instead of the imposter Jonathan if right. Hey its at least good fiction ... or not :)

So your boot order is
E1 Jon (Quits)
E1 Yau (Blunder)
E2 Mary ....

Cheers,
7o62x39