The Fox, the Bear, the Goat and the Bunny in Monster Island Forum

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The Fox, the Bear, the Goat and the Bunny

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Jedijake	Fried fox-YUM!!!	#61	[-]
Posts: 7557 12/07/01 09:24 PM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I wonder how fried fox tastes with a side of amoebic dysentery tastes. YUM! It probably tastes a little like Skunk-Cordon-blieu...... Okay, the amoebic dysentery part was, well, tasteless. It's just that I taught about it in my 7th grade science class. Unfortunately, none of my kids watch, or understand Survivor. Sad!
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Richterules	Re: Fried fox-YUM!!!	#62	[-]
Posts: 364 12/08/01 10:56 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I disagree that Kim P is the bunny. She is not just along for the ride. She is a schemer and it was her plan to rejoin Samburu and get kelly. She even said so in a video clip on the cbs website. There is no way she is an Amber and there is no way she will follow blindly (like Ethan Tom and mamaK do).
KernelQ	Re: Fried fox-YUM!!!	#63	[-]
Posts: 3096 12/08/01 12:49 PM Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Being a bunny is not a bad thing. It should not be seen as a negative. If Liz or Coleen made it to final two, their chances of winning a final vote were high. The same is true for Kimp. I agree with theg, Samburu seems to be the text book F-B-G-B. The other intersting thing is, although Frank may be thought of as a goat, he has a realistic chance of winning. IMHO, he can beat Brandon in a final vote, with only Kimp and Kelly voting for Bramdon. That assumes he jumps back to Samburu. As an aside, I wish people would stop bashing Amber, I can name two dozen Surviviors who played a much worse game than her. Being in a strong alliance, flying under the radar and getting to know your tribemates is a winning strategy. T/C picked Liz as their bunny because Amber was more of an immunity threat. Kimp may in fact use Amber's strategy and win Survivor Africa. Remember, Amber didn't see the need to jump ship or change her strategy, because she was ambushed wisely by T/C. To say Kimp is no Amber is unfair because the situation is quite different. People are mad at Amber because she could have helped Roger and Liz go further, not her problem. If T/C weren't as cagey as they turned out to be she would have been in a great position to beat out Keith for third and win the "know you tribemates challege" and possibly win. Don't believe it when Tina says "Amber didn't deserve to win", Tina knew Amber was one of the only ones left who could beat he in front of a jury. KQ
eeyore1976	After Kelly's boot...	#64	[-]
Posts: 403 12/10/01 04:45 AM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Time to reevluate the F/B/G/B pecking order since each original tribe is down to four members. On Samburu (if they take Brandon back), Teresa is the fox and Frank is the bear. Simple enough. KimP could still be the bunny, but she appears far too strategic at this point, taking the intiative to work on Brandon and Kelly at Teresa's request. Brandon makes an excellent goat right now, since nobody can trust him espeically if he turns around and backstabs either Lex or Tom next TC, depending on the IC win. On Boran, things are much more dicey. Of course, Lex fancies himself the Fox, but he's really just the Skunk and it's only a matter of time before at least Tom realizes that. KimJ and Ethan both seem to possess the passivity of bunnies, but he's too great an IC threat to truly qualify and I agree with the other posters hear the KimJ is more than willing to backstab. Scratch them off as allies. Big Tom could be the really bunny (phsycially weak, stretigcally inept), but he's too likeable, at least to the other players, to serve as a goat. They eliminated their two perfect goats, Clarence and Kelly. Sure Kelly was planning a f6 coup, but something tells me MamaKim would pull out at the last minute. Except for Lex, the three remaining Boran all have a shot at winning and ditch Lex. They can then hope against hope that they can exploit the rift in the Samburu alliance, a shotgun wedding if there ever was one. Will they be smart enough to be to this, cast out Lex and jockey to be the fourth person after Brandon's dismissal. (No matter how well Brandon explains his betrayal, he'll never regain KimP, Teresa and Frank's trust.) So Old Samburu waits until there's one Boran left (a sentimental favorite and non-threat, to help the appearance on the jury) and take out Brandon to avoid anymore surprises. This leaves a weird combo as Teresa as the fox, KimP as the bear (I know, it's a stretch), Frank as the goat and Tom as the bunny. Any thoughts on this?
KernelQ	Re: After Kelly's boot...	#65	[-]
Posts: 3096 12/10/01 09:59 AM Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I agree, either Tom or Kimj. It's a coin flip. Frank can win as the goat, that is the real interesting thing. It all depends if L and E either respect his non-involement or vote against his opponent for how they played the game. KQ
Thegr81am	Samburu alliance	#66	[-]
Posts: 21 12/10/01 09:26 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Brandon's position in the old-Samburu alliance all depends on whethern the other three, especially Kim Powers, ends up trusting him. If they do, the Brandon is the fox, Teresa is the bear, Frank is the goat, and Kim in the bunny. If they don't trust him, then Teresa is the fox/lion, Kim is the bear/bunny, Brandon is the goat, and Frank is just kind of there.
lizrd	Re: Samburu alliance	#67	[-]
Posts: 116 12/15/01 12:45 AM Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Bump to keep current; also, because we have seven tribe members left, and some of whom have undergone character developments in the last few episodes. discuss amongst yourselves.
sunsawed	Getting Tom's Goat	#68	[-]
Posts: 8731 12/18/01 02:17 PM MESS SPECtrometer Emeritus Reply Quote More Recent Posts	OK, let me explain to you what has been going on the whole time in Old Boran, what makes the events of the past six days make sense and fortell the future. (At least as I see it.) Lex took one look at Tom and thought he was a dumb, loud hayseed. Yet he was forceful to push his way through to the end. This seemed like the perfect person for Lex to ally with, someone with whom if he combined his forces, they could make their way to the final two and Lex could win. Remember our impression of Tom in Episode 1, his yelling, "Hell, I'd shoot you" to Clarence. Many saw him as not long for the game. To Lex, he seemed like the perfect Goat. But by the time of the merge, it became clear to Lex that Tom was a bad Goat. Inexplicably, people liked him. He can run around with a feather up his butt and people think it's great. Lex may be making his "Tom gets away with murder" statement now, but he's been thinking it a long time. It's obvious that in a Tom/Lex vote Lex is toast. Likewise with Ethan. Also with Mama. And the two people in his tribe that really were the Goats, Clarence and Kelly, didn't like him and wanted to sabotage him. Lex had a problem. So he needed a new Goat. He saw two potential Goats in Samburu, Brandon and Frank. He took one look at Frank and thought his prejudices would make it impossible for him to follow Lex. Moreover, he would be attracted to Tom personality-wise. But he got to know Brandon and could see the desperation in his eyes, the way he was willing to give himself just to buy Lindsey one more round before she was offed. THIS is your guy. Brandon was someone who would take pleasure in being Lex's bitch all the way to the 2. He would have fun strategizing, even if he wasn't going to win. He wanted to work with someone who could actually appreciate him and pull things off instead of cowering and crying or being a doofus. He was doing what Kelly should have been doing all along. But Kelly's animosity towards Lex got the best of her. She was useless to Lex and everybody else for that matter. Lex thought he had to somehow swap Brandon for Kelly in the alliance. Frank is a threat to Lex. He's a Goat seeming custom fitted for Tom, two dumb hayseeds that think everything they do is honorable. His insistence on Brandon over Frank was a naked attempt to promote his Goat over Tom's. He failed. It was indicative of how he had lost not only control but influence over the tribe to Tom. People chose to oust Brandon over Frank, even Kimp, not because they like or trust Frank better than Brandon, but because they really want Tom to WIN, not Lex.
meliannp	Re: Getting Tom's Goat	#69	[-]
Posts: 4256 12/18/01 02:37 PM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	so true sunsawed....i've been seeing the goat theory debated here the last few days and some people even try to argue that "the goat strategy doesn't work" but i think it is obviouse that it does and am glad you have worked it out..... my only question is if you think that T-bird and Ethan/MamaK are simply waititng for thier spots on the jury at this point? doesn't your theory discount them a little early? isn't Frank T-bird's goat already at this point? and MamaK Ethan's? What if these 4 are agreed not to vote for one another until the F4 and then all bets are off?
millardfillmore	Tom, Frank, Teresa, ???	#70	[-]
Posts: 1428 12/18/01 04:45 PM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I agree with this take on the last two eps, especially the last one. The rest of Boran easily saw through Lex's attempt to take someone he can beat to the final 2. Just because Teresa may be using Frank as her goat doesn't mean Tom can't also. A 3-person alliance with a goat is very stable. The fox and the bear (it doesn't really matter which is which) each have a 50-50 shot at winning which is probably the best anyone can hope for. The goat is basically guaranteed second which is the best he/she can hope for in any case. If this is indeed an alliance the trick will be to get rid of someone else this episode, while either (a) keeping the alliance secret or (b) keeping Lex in the game as the F6 boot. If this alliance is publicized and Lex is gone or wins immunity then it is doomed, as Tom and Frank both have three priors. If New Boran is the dominant alliance, then one of the four has to be the bunny, i.e., the biggest F2 threat and hence the logical F4 boot. Ordinarily the bunny is a huge threat to jump when it gets to 4-2, but what is interesting here is that the two turkeys would be Lex and Tom who both have priors. The bunny's only chance to take control of the game with Lex and Tom would be for Lex to win immunity and then have Tom beat Frank in a tiebreaker. Since it may not be clear who would be booted in a E/Kj/F/Te final 4, that 4-person alliance may be more stable than you would typically expect.
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froggymeru	Re: Tom, Frank, Teresa, ???	#71	[-]
Posts: 9040 12/18/01 05:16 PM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I think Kim P is a little too scheming to be a bunny. Earlier in her original alliance, she could be considered the bunny, but now she has emerged to be a stronger player and took the Kelly Defection under her wings. I hope Kim goes even farther because I believe she deserves it...alot more than her Kim counterpart, that's for sure. ~_~ And I agree with you Kernel...there was nothing wrong with Amber's strategy. She was in a really bad spot...if you could go back in time right now though, it's likely Keith would have gone instead of her. And it's not like her strategy didn't get her far...Final Six is really, really great. I consider the final six people to be the major players, and that's when I believe it's the "end" or the final stretch of the game.
Kahran Ramsus	Re: Tom, Frank, Teresa, ???	#72	[-]
Posts: 443 12/19/01 12:57 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The Main Alliance Tom - Fox. The mastermind. The alliance couldn't exist without him. Frank - Goat. Can you expect him to win? He should be everybody's Goat. Ethan - Bear. Good for the challenges. Tom's little buddy. Teresa - Bunny. Yes, she schemes, but she is clearly being brought along now. Kim J - Bunny. Likewise. The Outsiders Lex - Fox. Well, he'll try anyway. More realistically a Goat. Kim P. - Roadkill.
lizrd	Now what?	#73	[-]
Posts: 116 12/22/01 12:39 PM Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	With Frank gone, I wanted to refresh this topic. Frank seemed to me to be a perfect Goat. More specifically I wanted to explore the Lex character. Initially I thought he was a Fox, then a Goat, but he has become more of a Bear since he is starting to win challenges. While I can see him as a realistic Goat, this is flawed: Rich Hatch, despite being unlikable, got props for strategic thinking. Lex is starting to become a Hatch. I'll agree he's no longer completely dominant, since Tom/Ethan and Mama/Ethan are stronger pairs. So I don't see him as a Fox. Tom=Fox ; Ethan=Bear ; Lex=Goat ; Mama or Kimp=Bunny or Mama=Fox ; Ethan=Bear, Lex=Goat ; Tom or Kimp=Bunny The problem for me right now is I don't see a great Goat in the game, other than the flawed Lex. Who are these people expecting to win against? Why dump Frank?? Could Kimp be a Goat because she's so passive? would welcome comments, have been thinking about it for a while
Thegr81am	Possible combinations of the remaining six	#74	[-]
Posts: 21 12/22/01 02:39 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The possible final fours are... 1. Old Boran (In Lex's eyes): Fox - Lex Bear - Tom Goat - MamaKim Bunny - Ethan 2. Old Boran (In Ethan/Toms's eyes): Fox/Lion - Tom Bear/Lion - Ethan Goat/Skunk - Lex Bunny - MamaKim 3. All-Female Alliance: Fox - Teresa Bear - KimP Goat - MamaKim Bunny - Ethan or Tom (Probably Tom) 4. If MamaKim is booted by Tom/Ethan/KimP/Teresa in final6 or by Tom/Ethan/KimP in final5: Fox - Tom Bear - Ethan Goat - Lex Bunny - KimP 5. If Ethan and KimP get together next ep: Fox - KimP Bear - Tom Goat - Ethan Bunny - Teresa/MamaKim/Lex (whoever's left) ---To explain this one, if Ethan/Tom/KimP are final three, then KimP or Tom would both take Ethan to finals, so technically, he is a goat. Sorry for the length. I'm picking MamaKim's "head to be cut off" by Lex this week, then in the final five, Teresa is booted unanimously. This will make the number 4 alliance happen, but it's possible that Ethan and Kim can ally then and boot Tom or Lex by past votes. So, it could also end up being alliance number six. Since my head just exploded, I'll stop now, and say that it all depends on if (and when) MamaKim is gone this week.
bump bump bump	Re: Possible combinations of the remaining six	#75	[-]
Posts: 58 12/23/01 12:18 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	bump
Tresbia	Well, now that Kim P. is gone, it can be proven...	#76	[-]
Posts: 1342 12/28/01 10:24 AM Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Lex is a genius. It may be purely accidental, but Lex is a genius. Why? He cleared the field of any hidden foxes (I don't even remember what the term for these are anymore.). Basically, he could have been booted by any scenario in the last four episodes. He hasn't. Why not? Because he left himself with nothing but a) people he had strong ties to and b) bunnies. Kelly and Brandon were his ONLY threats. IMO, they were the ONLY ones who could have taken Lex out at any time when they felt they had the power move (and personally, I don't even think Brandon could have, but Lex had to save his own ass, I guess.) Lex, I'm hoping (and maybe I'm giving him too much credit), saw Kelly's F6 coup coming. He NEEDED to be rid of her, because he knew she was the key to knocking him out of the game. So he looks to Samburu. Frank: bunny (loyal bunny, but he won't budge in a swap...). Teresa: bunny (OK, that's an underestimation, but what can you do?). Kim P.: bunny (dead-on.). Brandon: hidden fox (Wasn't he trying to save Lindsey? Plus, Lex knew he had a grudge against Kelly.). So Lex pulls the second hidden fox into the fold with him, boots the first hidden fox. The next week, Lex puts up little resistance as the only other threat to his power goes. He looks over at Mama, and she's SCREAMING bunny. Hell, she should have been gone Day 12. She's not going to betray her boys. And he was right. Pure genius. Now, Lex has to think about the jury if he wants the win. Lex NEEDS to play Rich Hatch now, and grab a bunny and ride her. That's T-bird and Mama. Because he probably loses a vote to Ethan or Tom (that would have to be one DAMN good jury speech.). However, if Mama and Teresa follow the advice "HEY, YOU MORONS! SUCK UP TO THE GOAT!" (Intelligence? Have we seen signs strategic intelligence from Mama yet???) Lex takes T-bird and Mama into the final three. From there, he probably loses the Final 3 IC (Fallen Comrades?). Even if he does win, it wouldn't cost him a jury vote (Mama and T-bird would vote for each other before Lex...probably.). Then he wraps up Kelly (respect), Brandon (nice save there), and Frank and Kim P. IF it's Mama. (T-bird would get both of their votes over Lex.) Tom, Ethan? Not sure how they'd view the betrayal. Of course, this is all moot if Lex values honor and takes Tom and Ethan to the final 3. Can he win there? I'm not so sure..
Jedijake	Hmmm....	#77	[-]
Posts: 7557 12/28/01 01:11 PM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	So, does Lex put up an argument that Ethan and Tom are betraying him, and side with MamaK and Teresa to try and get them to join him in ousting either Tom or Ethan next time?
Thegr81am	Lex is Richard Hatch reborn -- This is how he will win...	#78	[-]
Posts: 21 12/28/01 01:33 PM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Although you're right, Tresbia, in that it was almost by pure luck, LEX is the second-greatest fox in Survivor history. Or, more specifically, he has the most solid 4-person alliance EVER. Other than immunity, there is absolutely NO WAY that Teresa is not out next week; there is simply no reason not to. They didn't vote out LEX instead of KIMP, why would they over TERESA? Then, the obvious final-four alliance is... Fox - LEX Bear - MAMAKIM Goat - TOM Bunny - ETHAN Yes, MAMAKIM is LEX's bear; she is his "loyal opposition," as Sunsawed defined a bear, but the genius part is: SHE IS NOT OPPOSITION!!! And, TOM is the goat, he may not be unlikable, but he is not a threat in the game strategically. I think that if LEX gets ETHAN out at final four, he has it won. How will this all happen??? Final five: TERESA is out. No ifs, ands, or buts. In the plate-breaking challenge, it was so obvious that the Borans were teaming up to take T-BIRD and KIMP out first. They will make sure that TERESA doesn't win the IC, and she WILL be out, FOR SURE. (But, in the one-in-a-million chance that she does win immunity, ETHAN will sadly be booted, and replace his name with TERESA in my final four prediction.) Final four: ETHAN is done. First of all, let's not forget that LEX and TOM swore on their kids' names that they wouldn't vote for each other. LEX will explain to TOM that ETHAN can beat any of the remaining three in the finals, so this is their last chance to get rid of him. TOM WILL vote for ETHAN, using TERESA's patented "This is a vote of strategy, not betrayal" explanation, and in a sad TC, ETHAN will be the sixth member of the jury. (Again, if he wins immunity, replace his name with TOM.) Final Three: No matter who wins final immunity, LEX is in the finals. Who would each take? MAMAKIM: LEX -- Can possibly beat him in finals, and has no chance against TOM. TOM: LEX -- Fulfilling the alliance from day 2 or whatever. LEX: MAMAKIM -- See below. Finals: Not clearly, I think that the finals will be MAMAKIM and LEX (which sucks that she'll be in the finals), but I'll get to that. First of all, if TOM and LEX are in the finals, then LEX will take the Richard argument to TOM's Rudy. Will it work? The voting would go... Kelly - TOM (definitely) Brandon - LEX (definitely) Frank - ????? (maybe LEX) KimP - TOM (definitely) Teresa - LEX (probably) Ethan - TOM (probably) MamaKim - LEX (definitely) Hard to tell, but it WOULD be a 4-3 vote, and it would depend on FRANK's vote. It could go either way; he could vote for TOM for likability, or LEX for respect of his game; I think he'd vote for LEX, giving him the million. Now, the probable finals: LEX and MAMAKIM. MAMAKIM would argue that she played the game best because she didn't ruffle any feathers and stayed U.T.R. for the whole game, recieving only one vote. LEX would argue that he played the game better because he PLAYED THE GAME, and essentially controlled it. Although he wouldn't say it as harshly, he'd again take the Richard argument to MAMAKIM's Kelly, because she was the RAT to LEX's SNAKE. Voting goes: Kelly - ????? Brandon - LEX (definitely) Frank - LEX (probably/definitely) KimP - ????? Teresa - MAMAKIM (probably) Ethan - LEX (probably) Tom - LEX (definitely) Even ignoring KELLY and KIMP, LEX has four votes to MAMAKIM's one!!! Also, this could go with three spoilers: 1. Invisible pair -- LEX and MAMAKIM??? Whoudathunkit? 2. LEX's kid telling everyone that he won; the question is, will MB sue mini-Lex? 3. MB said that the two least likey would be the finalists. From the beginning to the show to the twist, people predicted MAMAKIM getting booted, and from the episode of KELLY's booting to now, people have been predicting LEX getting voted off EVERY EPISODE!!! There it is. LEX and MAMAKIM will (probably) be the finalists with TOM possibly replacing MAMAKIM. Either way, LEX will be the winner of Survivor: Africa. (Cheers, whistles.) How possible/probable is this? Or am I just an idiot?
Jedijake	Good thoughts,	#79	[-]
Posts: 7557 12/28/01 05:20 PM MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Sounds good,Theg. I don't see any problems with it. I would say that MamaKim has the upper hand in a "fallen comrades"IC if we indeed see one.We may not,however. However, KimJ may rather take Tom to the final 2,just because her conscience tells her so. I personally don't see Teresa NOT going in next episode without immunity. However, let's talk if she does. Then what? I'd say Lex would be gone if he goes berzerk again.
Thegr81am	Re: Good thoughts,	#80	[-]
Posts: 21 12/29/01 01:06 AM Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Again, if Teresa wins immunity, Ethan is gone (again, which sucks). MamaKim will be able to convince Teresa to vote out Ethan with Lex using Teresa's "he's unbeatable" argument that Teresa gave MamaKim in final 7. Let's not forget -- LEX and MAMAKIM NEED each others in the finals; they believe that each other is their only chance of winning. So, there's no way that they're gonna backstab each other. If Teresa wins immunity, then either Tom or Ethan are gone for sure, and of these two, it would probably be Ethan, because of Lex + Tom's final two vote, as well as his "unbeatability" (did I just make up a word???) Also, on this, look for Lex to possibly throw the final three IC with Tom and Mama. He knows that if he votes out TOm, he loses his vote in the jury, and he can't vote out MamaKim or he loses to Tom. Especially if the final IC is Fallen Comrades; MamaKim would win that for sure. Sorry for going so off topic, but anyway, is Teresa somehow wins immunity, then Ethan is gone, then she's out in final four. Either way, final three is Lex, MamaKim, and Tom.
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The Fox, the Bear, the Goat and the Bunny