you are all hilarious! and OTH... you are right, strange strange season...
and Astro... THAT woud be the biggest strangest twist of the season... first one out WINS!!
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For the record, I am still supporting my merge pick MATTY! (yes OTH... i'm toughing it out...)
But, since my reasons have a lot more to do with THEME, and the simple observation that this season is really not of the "winner will be from the dominate, pre-merge tribe" ilk, but more of that random, "tribes got all messed up, and key players got voted out early and left the door WIDE open" type of season (ie. Marquesas, Amazon, Guatalmala, Vanuatu)... AND I also think that Matty's admitted strategy of not having a strategy (per his bio/pre season interview)... this non-strategy strategy is a main part of the problem....
So, anyway... I am not going to write up a bunch of theme related reasons why I think Matty wins. I'll just state... "please see every post that either myself or getting real wrote over the last 20 pages or so" (and i think there might be a few others from some other posters too...)
But, for fun... i thought, instead, that i would try to find all of the MOR Differential Numbers and take a look at them.
I could only find S10 to S17. The S9 - the thread is partially damaged, and everything from S8 and before, there doesn't appear to be any MOR Numbers, and i don't feel like calculating them. Maybe another day...
So... here are the final 4 for each season, as well as the highest, lowest, 2nd lowest, midpoint (mid-rank) MOR , and anyone notable. I've listed in order of their their MOR Rank . The winner is bolded. F2, F3, F4 are underlined. Midpoints are blue.
S10 PALAU
0.47 Jeff (lowest)
0.49 Katie (2nd / 20)
1.03 Ian (4th / 20 )
1.48 Angie (10th / 20 midpoint)
1.64 Tom (12th / 20)
2.02 Jenn (14th / 20 )
3.71 Jolanda ( highest)
S11 GUATAMALA
0.41 Margaret Bobonich (lowest)
0.57 Gary Hogeboom (2nd lowest)
0.69 Rafe Judkins (5th / 18)
0.98 Amy O'Hara (9th / 18 midpoint)
1.03 Danni Boatwright (10 / 18 )
1.41 Stephenie La Grossa (13 / 18 )
1.46 Lydia Morales (14th / 18)
2.45 Morgan McDevitt (highest )
S12 EXILE ISLAND
0.47 Aras Baskauskas (lowest)
0.63 Danielle DiLorenzo (2nd lowest)
1.00 Melinda Hyder (8th / 16 midpoint)
1.14 Cirie Fields (10th / 16)
1.22 Terry Deitz (11th / 16)
2.87 Tina Scheer (highest)
S13 COOK ISLANDS
0.55 Yul Kwon (lowest)
0.56 Cristina Coria (2nd lowest)
0.70 Parvati Shallow (5th / 20)
1.00 Ozzy Lusth (8 / 20)
1.17 Adam Gentry (10th / 20 MIDPOINT)
1.49 Jonathan Penner (13 / 20)
1.55 Sundra Oakley (14 / 20)
2.20 Becky Lee (18 / 20)
3.70 Sekou Bunch (highest)
S14 FIJI
0.58 Lisi Linares (lowest)
0.74 Edgardo Rivera (2nd lowest)
0.97 Yau-Man Chan (6th / 19)
1.02 Earl Cole ( 7th / 19)
1.25 Gary Stritesky (10th / 19 midpoint)
1.33 Dre Herd (11th / 19)
1.49 Cassandra Franklin (14th / 19)
3.50 James "Rocky" Reid (highest)
S15 CHINA
0.40 Peih-Gee Law (lowest)
0.51 Jaime Dugan (2nd lowest)
0.65 Amanda Kimmel (3rd / 16)
1.20 Todd Herzog ( 7th / 16)
1.21 James Clement (8th / 16 mid-point)
1.32 Denise Martin (10th / 16)
1.52 Courtney Yates (11th / 16)
3.77 Chicken Morris (highest)
S16 Fans vs Favs
0.40 Cirie Fields (lowest )
0.44 Eliza Orlins (2nd lowest)
0.47 Tracy Hughes-Wolf (3rd / 20)
0.64 Parvati Shallow (4th / 20)
0.73 Amanda Kimmel (6th / 20)
1.26 Erik Reichenbach (9th / 20)
1.29 Jonathan Penner (10th / 20 mid point)
2.52 Natalie Bolton (highest)
WINNERS from lowest to highest
0.47 Aras (1st position)
0.55 Yul (1st position)
0.64 Parvati (4th position)
1.02 Earl (7th position)
1.03 Danni (10th position)
1.20 Todd (7th position)
1.64 Tom (12th position)
median: 1.02
midpoint: 1.05
average: 0.94
Trends & Observations Out of 7 Completed Seasons...
- The AVERAGE MORD of the Winners comes in at 0.938
- Only 2 Winners (28%) were the LOWEST MORD of their season. Includes only 1 of the 2 MOST STRATEGIC EDITS (Yul)
- 4/7 of Winners (57%) are closer to the MIDPOINT for their season than Zero
- 5/7 Winners (70%) are lower than the MIDPOINT for their season
- 4/7 (57%) Winners are OVER 1.0 including the LOWEST VISIBLITY winner (Danni)
- 6/7 Winners (86%) ARE OVER 0.5...including the LAST 4 WINNERS Yul, Earl, Todd & Parvati.
- Out of the 8 edits over all 7 seasons to receive less than 0.5 MORD... only 1 was a winner (12.5%), 3 others (37.5%) finished in the F5.
- 2/7 winners are within 0.03 points of the Winner's Midpoint.
- 2/7 winner's fall in the 7th position.
- The LOWEST MORD belongs to ARAS (0.47), The HIGHEST MORD belongs to Tom at 1.64
- The LOWEST MORD ever is a tie between Peih-Gee (S15) and Cirie (S16) at 0.40.
- Only Once has the Final 1 & 2 players' MORDs been side by side... Aras and Danielle. Also the only time the the 2 Lowest MORDs lined up to the Winner & 2nd place.
- VERY EARLY boots (1st or 2nd) USUALLY have the HIGHEST MORD (5/7 seasons)
- 6/7 seasons the second lowest MORD belongs to a VERY EARLY Jury member or main decoy winner or both (does not include S17)
--
So... if you look at the MORD up to the end of Episode 11 (those still in the game are underlined):
0.21 Ken Hoang lowest
0.58 Marcus Lehman 2nd lowest
0.95 Sugar Kiper 4th / 18
1.23 Matty Whitmore 7th / 18
1.39 Crystal Cox 9th / 18 midpoint
1.66 Bob Crowley 11th / 18
1.98 Susie Smith 14th / 18
3.58 Michelle Chase highest
According to the MORD TRENDS outlined above...
Ken's MORD Is actually the LOWEST we've ever had... by far.... and his win would actually GO AGAINST the editing trends... as outlined in 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Which would also suggest - like Cirie and Peih-Geih - he won't make the final tribal council.
Susie's MORD at 1.98 is comparable to other F4's with Bad Edits like Jenn from S10 (2.02), Natalie S16 (2.52) and Becky from S13 (2.20). Susie is not winning.
Bob's MORD at 1.66 is more comparable to endgamers like Denise S15, Cassandra S14, and Sundra S15 ... other quiet Final 4s. The Only Winner in that range - Tom at 1.64 - had a VERY DIFFERENT edit... even though, like Bob, Tom was on a winning team from the get go, Tom's pre-merge was much stronger than Bob's has been. And Tom was presented to be involved in all the decisions as well as having the main alliance that made it to the end. I would suggest that it is unlikely that Bob will win considering the desparity between the 2 edits.
Sugar's MORD at 0.95 is the closest to the WINNER'S AVERAGE (0.94) ... the only other player as close was Yau-Man at 0.97. Of this season, only Matty comes as close to the observed trends as Sugar. Against her though, is that no winner actually ever came in that close to the average. This seams to be a spot for a "favorite" or someone who made it interesting ... Yau-Man, Alex from Fiji, Candice from CI, Austin, Seabiscuit Cindy from S11, Amy from S11... all of these came in around the .90 to .97 mark.
Matty at 1.23 is a bit high on the MORD trends... but his MORD does actually fit into the trends better than anyone else, except for Sugar. Matty is in the 7th position (only the 1st and 7th positions have more than 1 winner and both of the 7th position winners were over 1.0 MORD) Todd... another heavy THEME winner... comes in at 1.20 for his season, and in the 7th position. Another high MORD winner, like Tom from S10, was editted quite MORish and Pish, similarly to Matty's. Even Earl... who comes in as the true median of the winner's positions at 1.02 was kind of a bland to positive winner with strong ties tot he theme of the season. Although, the editors threw in everything they could to make sure we undertood the 7-0-0 win for him.
So, based on the MORD History Trends, Sugar & Matty have the best shots at winning. Like their edits, there are pluses and minuses... but no one else comes close.
eta: minor corrections, brackets and one additional observation.
also to fix numbers on observation 14... it was late when i typed this!
