Final Strategy Analysis
I know I never really wrote up any big strategy analysis posts about the players strategy edits this season, other then one for episode #3, I was just too busy this time around. But now that the season is over I think it's time we take a look at strategy ratings from the past 5 seasons and ask ourselves, just what do we learn from this?
Well first of all Todd's win really puts a nail in the coffin to two of my three 'guidelines'.
Then there's another strategy guideline that Todd's win moves in for the kill on after Yul and Earl's wins.
So the question is, just what do Todd & Earl (& Yul to a lesser extent) have in common with other winners in strategy edits? How can we the tell the difference between an S11 Gary, and a Todd with strategy ratings? I mean Gary, the biggest strategy distraction of his season, had these ratings for the first six episodes, compare them to Todd's.
-Gary: S2, S3, S2, S1, S2, S1
-Todd: S2, S2, S2, S1, S1, S3
It's the exact same ratings if you don't count if they were shown as a good or bad player (Gary was mixed, Todd had 3 +'s). There's only 1 'rule' in terms of being too visible that hasn't been broken yet in strategy ratings.
-No winner has ever gotten an S3 in the early episodes (episodes 1 through 5)
That's really not much, it doesn't seem that many strategy guidelines limiting how much strategy is too much are possible, if any..
You could also argue that no winner has ever been just an S2/3 mix with 2 or 3 episodes exception, and still won. But first of all thanks to debatable S1/2/3's I post now that's a lot murkier, and the charts don't show it. Also who the heck would such a guideline eliminate? Only Terry Deitz, who we all knew was a huge distraction.
On the other hand, saying how much strategy is too little is still possible. One of my guidelines has still proven correct this season.
So overall, after this season I guess we're down to two possible uses for strategy ratings to disqualify possible winners.
1) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row.
2) The winner will not receive four or more S0's.
I know I never really wrote up any big strategy analysis posts about the players strategy edits this season, other then one for episode #3, I was just too busy this time around. But now that the season is over I think it's time we take a look at strategy ratings from the past 5 seasons and ask ourselves, just what do we learn from this?
Well first of all Todd's win really puts a nail in the coffin to two of my three 'guidelines'.
1) The winner will not have any S3 episodes until very late into the season.I don't call episode #6 very late into the season. Previously I had believed until the merge happens the winner won't get an S3. The earliest S3 for a winner before then was Earl in episode #10, at the 'real' merge episode where Edgardo went home. It's true that episode #6 was close to the merge, but still, it's much earlier then the other winners had ever gotten an S3. Worse yet, this was a solid S3, not a debatable S2.
Then there's another strategy guideline that Todd's win moves in for the kill on after Yul and Earl's wins.
3) The winner will generally have a mix of S1's and S2's, with a few S0's (probably in the first half of the season), and possibly an S3 late in the season.Clearly Todd was not a mix of S1's and S2's with a few S0's. Unlike the winners of S11 through S14, Todd never once got a single S0, or even a debatable S0, so Todd really finishes off my theory that S0 cooldown time is important for a winner. Also with all of the S2's Todd got, compared to S1's (even though some S2's were a debatable S1,.and visa vera) he really puts a nail in the winner being hidden in the middle in the amounts of strategy time they receive, him and Earl both were mostly S2ish their whole season, and both have the highest strategy average score by far out of everyone else.
So the question is, just what do Todd & Earl (& Yul to a lesser extent) have in common with other winners in strategy edits? How can we the tell the difference between an S11 Gary, and a Todd with strategy ratings? I mean Gary, the biggest strategy distraction of his season, had these ratings for the first six episodes, compare them to Todd's.
-Gary: S2, S3, S2, S1, S2, S1
-Todd: S2, S2, S2, S1, S1, S3
It's the exact same ratings if you don't count if they were shown as a good or bad player (Gary was mixed, Todd had 3 +'s). There's only 1 'rule' in terms of being too visible that hasn't been broken yet in strategy ratings.
-No winner has ever gotten an S3 in the early episodes (episodes 1 through 5)
That's really not much, it doesn't seem that many strategy guidelines limiting how much strategy is too much are possible, if any..
You could also argue that no winner has ever been just an S2/3 mix with 2 or 3 episodes exception, and still won. But first of all thanks to debatable S1/2/3's I post now that's a lot murkier, and the charts don't show it. Also who the heck would such a guideline eliminate? Only Terry Deitz, who we all knew was a huge distraction.
On the other hand, saying how much strategy is too little is still possible. One of my guidelines has still proven correct this season.
2) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row.No winner since S12 has even had 3 S0's. With the current switch in strategy editing to favor big heavy strategists out in front you could also say that a guideline of "The winner will not receive four or more S0's" could help us a bit. But then again just who has four or more S0's that we were ever considering a possible winner? I count S15 Courtney, S11 Rafe, S11 Cindy, S13 Ozzy, S13 Rebecca, S14 Michelle, & S14 Cassandra (although by the time Rebecca & Michelle got 4 S0's I don't think they were considered a winner possibility anymore). A lot of these people however (Cassandra, Courtney, Rebecca) never really had much more then a few people supporting their chances at winning.
So overall, after this season I guess we're down to two possible uses for strategy ratings to disqualify possible winners.
1) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row.
2) The winner will not receive four or more S0's.
