Strategy Analysis: Episode #3
Well it's been three episodes so far, and that means it's time to start some strategy analysis.
Looking alright so far
Aaron - He may have gotten a - already, but so did Aras at this point. A winner can recover from one - episode, my real concern right now is that he should get an S0 cool down episode soon after two S1's and an S2 for the first three episodes. He's looking pretty good so far in terms of his strategy numbers, though his content may use some work with how he's been shown as a pawn.
Amanda - She's got the best mix of strategy ratings so far out of everyone, an S0, an S2+, and an S1, despite being so UTR in the show she's not getting a Danni strategy edit (Danni just barely earned a strong enough S1 in the first episode to avoid it being a close call, and was S0 the next two episodes). So far she's mostly been just Todd's sidekick, but it's been Todd who's gotten the credit for pulling the strings for the two of them so far. She's gotten more then Becky so far in terms of strategy, but that doesn't mean that she'll fare better then Becky did in the end.
Jaime - Well she's probably gotten the most strategy talk out of everyone on Zhan Hu, not counting Dave. Her numbers are decent so far, but the problem is that chances are she's gotten the strategy content she got because of the HII and how she's given out or received clues to it in the episodes she talked strategy. She did get some extra stuff to, like being involved in the preTC plotting, and talking about her relationship with Leslie and how she trusts her. Still she's worth keeping an eye on.
Peih-Gee - Her ratings really don't show it, with two S1's and an S0, but she looks alright so far, probably the best out of any Zhan Hu's. Unlike the rest of the people on her tribe (Erik/Sherea/Frosti) she hasn't been a debatable S0 whenever she got some strategy talk, and hasn't gotten strategy because it had to be a part of the story, and she's not shown as a moron. Strategy basically says she probably stands the best chance out of the Zhan Hu's at pulling off a win, she explained the Chicken vote, and commented on getting information from Leslie, important events. However if you think about it you could argue that she's been shown repeating the same mistakes just like Dave has. She's been shown annoying people by being so bossy in two episodes so far, even though she's always shown as being right. Will she eventually learn, we'll have to wait and see.
Making me scratch my head
Courtney - Ok, she starts out the show saying she basically hates her whole tribe, while not earning even a debatable S1 that episode what kind of a strategy introduction is that? Then in episode #2 she gets a confessional about Aaron and Jean-Robert being morons for having a fight in front of Jaime and basically telling her who hates who, quite different from how she was the first episode, though you could argue it actually continues her episode #1 edit of hating her tribe. Then next episode we get a very important scene, Courtney overhears evil Jean-Robert and James want to kick out Courtney first! Surely this would be a great moment to give us a confessional where Courtney talks about overhearing this right? But the editors chose to show Todd talk about it in a confessional instead, while showing Courtney laugh as she overheard it. Does she not take her game life seriously, was she laughing at how she knows their plan will fail, we don't know. Later on she had a brief scene with Leslie and Todd where she said they should get rid of Jean-Robert and they both agreed. Later on we see Courtney and Leslie walk over to the other 6 as Jean-Robert explains why they have to get rid of one of them, and from the looks of it they must have overheard at least some of it, but do we get a confessional from either of them about this, nope. Then we go to TC, and mean Jean-Robert labels Courtney a liability at challenges, Courtney sounds like she's trying not to cry when she responds to the accusation by saying that she's sick of being thought of as useless and having just challenges where brawn and being big matters. When Courtney votes she doesn't go with the majority, was she blindsided, we have no idea, but she sure might have, either that or she might not have been willing to vote for Leslie. But anyway we see her voting speech as she casts a vote for Jean-Robert, does she say "this is for plotting against me", nope, she says it's because "you sound like someone's chocking a walrus at night". Overall while the numbers may be there for Courtney, the content on the hand clearly isn't. Writing all this down actually made me feel a lot better about eliminating her and refusing to uneliminate her.
James - He started out the season as the strong guy who's going to have a hard time in the social aspect of the game. Then he was INV so obviously he didn't do any strategy talk. This episode however he was partners in crime with evil Jean-Robert, and together they were both stupid enough to talk where Courtney could overhear them. I'm not quite sure what to think about him with these two dramatically different strategy edits in two different episodes.
Looks like a big strategy distraction
Jean-Robert - With two -'s and one -- in the first three episodes it looks like we know who the big fat moron distraction of the season is. The villains are almost always stupid morons in their strategy edit.
Dave - Two -'s in a row, if he keeps this up then he could also become a big fat moron distraction just like Jean-Robert.
Todd - There's no question about it, Todd has a lot of great content, but that's his big problem, he has too much great content too soon. He MUST get some S0 cool down time NOW, if he keeps up this pattern he's on his way to becoming another strategy distraction of Terry Deitz style proportions (S2 or S3 in every single episode except for one where he was an S1*, where he was on Exile Island and his La Mina tribe was almost completely ignored). I also don't like how he's been presented as such an obvious winner in the first two episodes. So far strategy is telling us that Todd is destined to be another Terry Deitz who goes far but falls short in the end. I'll give him one, or two more episodes to cool down and prove me wrong, but if he gets another S2, or worse yet an S3, in the next two episodes then he's done and solidified as a distraction.
Close to not knowing there's a game going on
Erik - So far he has two S0's, and one S1 that's a debatable S0, it's not so good if the first time you talk strategy in three episodes it's a debatable S0. He's not eliminated yet based solely on strategy, but combine this with the rest of his edit and he might as well be.
Sherea - Don't be fooled by her two S1's and one S0 on the chart, both of the S1's are debatable S0's. That's not good after three episodes, not being able to get a solid enough S1 that it's not a debatable S0.
Doesn't even know there's a game going on
Denise - All she's said was "I work as a school cafeteria chef", that's not game talk, now if she said something like she would use that to help her out here that would have been strategy, but alas she did no such thing. She's broken the 'no string of S0's for 3 or more episodes' rule already.
Frosti - He's just about on the same ground as Denise, in three episodes the only strategy comment he's gotten was basically "Dave should be glad we kept him around last night", which wasn't even enough to earn him an S1. Three episodes in and he's already pretty much broken the no three S0's in a row rule, he's toast.
Overall Thoughts
Anyone under a 'there's a game going on' category isn't winning according to strategy, but most of us already knew that already. After typing up that whole outline of Courtney's strategy edit so far I'm convinced that she can't possibly be the winner, writing that up reminded me of Dreamz and some of the watchdog reports I wrote for him. Dave and Jean-Robert aren't winning either, and if the trend of the morons going home early keeps up then they may not have a very long game life. James is leaving me baffled by current strategy edit and content.
Todd may be a top winner pick right now, but strategy ratings really highlight the dangerous position he's in right now, he's in danger of becoming another Gary if he gets quieter on the show but still talks strategy when he's shown.
Fei Long definitely has all the strategy talk, with half of Zhan Hu not even knowing there's a game going on, and it's likely to continue to be that way, with Zhan Hu being all about the current situation, and Fei Long being mostly about the future. The only person on Zhan Hu to even comment on something that may possibly be important later on is Peih-Gee when talking about the information Leslie gave them.
Oh and I was just thinking some more about Zhan Hu's alliances, who did Leslie say were the Christians on their tribe, Sherea, Jaime, and Erik. Is there a Christian alliance? And more importantly, how is it possible in a country with 80 to 90 percent of it's citizens being Christian that only half of Zhan Hu is Christian? What are Dave/Frosti/Peih-Gee Atheists or Jews, or did they not want to answer Leslie's questions? But getting back to the point, we saw the three of Sherea/Jaime/Erik together at one point to discuss the vote in episode #2, so that certainly points to them being an alliance. Is Frosti really on his own (like Sherea implied by saying she didn't know him), or does he having some sort of a deal with Dave and Peih-Gee? And if he does then why did he give that confessional of "Dave should just be glad that we kept him around". The next time Zhan Hu goes to TC it'll be very interesting to see how this alliance theory turns out.
Well it's been three episodes so far, and that means it's time to start some strategy analysis.
Looking alright so far
Aaron - He may have gotten a - already, but so did Aras at this point. A winner can recover from one - episode, my real concern right now is that he should get an S0 cool down episode soon after two S1's and an S2 for the first three episodes. He's looking pretty good so far in terms of his strategy numbers, though his content may use some work with how he's been shown as a pawn.
Amanda - She's got the best mix of strategy ratings so far out of everyone, an S0, an S2+, and an S1, despite being so UTR in the show she's not getting a Danni strategy edit (Danni just barely earned a strong enough S1 in the first episode to avoid it being a close call, and was S0 the next two episodes). So far she's mostly been just Todd's sidekick, but it's been Todd who's gotten the credit for pulling the strings for the two of them so far. She's gotten more then Becky so far in terms of strategy, but that doesn't mean that she'll fare better then Becky did in the end.
Jaime - Well she's probably gotten the most strategy talk out of everyone on Zhan Hu, not counting Dave. Her numbers are decent so far, but the problem is that chances are she's gotten the strategy content she got because of the HII and how she's given out or received clues to it in the episodes she talked strategy. She did get some extra stuff to, like being involved in the preTC plotting, and talking about her relationship with Leslie and how she trusts her. Still she's worth keeping an eye on.
Peih-Gee - Her ratings really don't show it, with two S1's and an S0, but she looks alright so far, probably the best out of any Zhan Hu's. Unlike the rest of the people on her tribe (Erik/Sherea/Frosti) she hasn't been a debatable S0 whenever she got some strategy talk, and hasn't gotten strategy because it had to be a part of the story, and she's not shown as a moron. Strategy basically says she probably stands the best chance out of the Zhan Hu's at pulling off a win, she explained the Chicken vote, and commented on getting information from Leslie, important events. However if you think about it you could argue that she's been shown repeating the same mistakes just like Dave has. She's been shown annoying people by being so bossy in two episodes so far, even though she's always shown as being right. Will she eventually learn, we'll have to wait and see.
Making me scratch my head
Courtney - Ok, she starts out the show saying she basically hates her whole tribe, while not earning even a debatable S1 that episode what kind of a strategy introduction is that? Then in episode #2 she gets a confessional about Aaron and Jean-Robert being morons for having a fight in front of Jaime and basically telling her who hates who, quite different from how she was the first episode, though you could argue it actually continues her episode #1 edit of hating her tribe. Then next episode we get a very important scene, Courtney overhears evil Jean-Robert and James want to kick out Courtney first! Surely this would be a great moment to give us a confessional where Courtney talks about overhearing this right? But the editors chose to show Todd talk about it in a confessional instead, while showing Courtney laugh as she overheard it. Does she not take her game life seriously, was she laughing at how she knows their plan will fail, we don't know. Later on she had a brief scene with Leslie and Todd where she said they should get rid of Jean-Robert and they both agreed. Later on we see Courtney and Leslie walk over to the other 6 as Jean-Robert explains why they have to get rid of one of them, and from the looks of it they must have overheard at least some of it, but do we get a confessional from either of them about this, nope. Then we go to TC, and mean Jean-Robert labels Courtney a liability at challenges, Courtney sounds like she's trying not to cry when she responds to the accusation by saying that she's sick of being thought of as useless and having just challenges where brawn and being big matters. When Courtney votes she doesn't go with the majority, was she blindsided, we have no idea, but she sure might have, either that or she might not have been willing to vote for Leslie. But anyway we see her voting speech as she casts a vote for Jean-Robert, does she say "this is for plotting against me", nope, she says it's because "you sound like someone's chocking a walrus at night". Overall while the numbers may be there for Courtney, the content on the hand clearly isn't. Writing all this down actually made me feel a lot better about eliminating her and refusing to uneliminate her.
James - He started out the season as the strong guy who's going to have a hard time in the social aspect of the game. Then he was INV so obviously he didn't do any strategy talk. This episode however he was partners in crime with evil Jean-Robert, and together they were both stupid enough to talk where Courtney could overhear them. I'm not quite sure what to think about him with these two dramatically different strategy edits in two different episodes.
Looks like a big strategy distraction
Jean-Robert - With two -'s and one -- in the first three episodes it looks like we know who the big fat moron distraction of the season is. The villains are almost always stupid morons in their strategy edit.
Dave - Two -'s in a row, if he keeps this up then he could also become a big fat moron distraction just like Jean-Robert.
Todd - There's no question about it, Todd has a lot of great content, but that's his big problem, he has too much great content too soon. He MUST get some S0 cool down time NOW, if he keeps up this pattern he's on his way to becoming another strategy distraction of Terry Deitz style proportions (S2 or S3 in every single episode except for one where he was an S1*, where he was on Exile Island and his La Mina tribe was almost completely ignored). I also don't like how he's been presented as such an obvious winner in the first two episodes. So far strategy is telling us that Todd is destined to be another Terry Deitz who goes far but falls short in the end. I'll give him one, or two more episodes to cool down and prove me wrong, but if he gets another S2, or worse yet an S3, in the next two episodes then he's done and solidified as a distraction.
Close to not knowing there's a game going on
Erik - So far he has two S0's, and one S1 that's a debatable S0, it's not so good if the first time you talk strategy in three episodes it's a debatable S0. He's not eliminated yet based solely on strategy, but combine this with the rest of his edit and he might as well be.
Sherea - Don't be fooled by her two S1's and one S0 on the chart, both of the S1's are debatable S0's. That's not good after three episodes, not being able to get a solid enough S1 that it's not a debatable S0.
Doesn't even know there's a game going on
Denise - All she's said was "I work as a school cafeteria chef", that's not game talk, now if she said something like she would use that to help her out here that would have been strategy, but alas she did no such thing. She's broken the 'no string of S0's for 3 or more episodes' rule already.
Frosti - He's just about on the same ground as Denise, in three episodes the only strategy comment he's gotten was basically "Dave should be glad we kept him around last night", which wasn't even enough to earn him an S1. Three episodes in and he's already pretty much broken the no three S0's in a row rule, he's toast.
Overall Thoughts
Anyone under a 'there's a game going on' category isn't winning according to strategy, but most of us already knew that already. After typing up that whole outline of Courtney's strategy edit so far I'm convinced that she can't possibly be the winner, writing that up reminded me of Dreamz and some of the watchdog reports I wrote for him. Dave and Jean-Robert aren't winning either, and if the trend of the morons going home early keeps up then they may not have a very long game life. James is leaving me baffled by current strategy edit and content.
Todd may be a top winner pick right now, but strategy ratings really highlight the dangerous position he's in right now, he's in danger of becoming another Gary if he gets quieter on the show but still talks strategy when he's shown.
Fei Long definitely has all the strategy talk, with half of Zhan Hu not even knowing there's a game going on, and it's likely to continue to be that way, with Zhan Hu being all about the current situation, and Fei Long being mostly about the future. The only person on Zhan Hu to even comment on something that may possibly be important later on is Peih-Gee when talking about the information Leslie gave them.
Oh and I was just thinking some more about Zhan Hu's alliances, who did Leslie say were the Christians on their tribe, Sherea, Jaime, and Erik. Is there a Christian alliance? And more importantly, how is it possible in a country with 80 to 90 percent of it's citizens being Christian that only half of Zhan Hu is Christian? What are Dave/Frosti/Peih-Gee Atheists or Jews, or did they not want to answer Leslie's questions? But getting back to the point, we saw the three of Sherea/Jaime/Erik together at one point to discuss the vote in episode #2, so that certainly points to them being an alliance. Is Frosti really on his own (like Sherea implied by saying she didn't know him), or does he having some sort of a deal with Dave and Peih-Gee? And if he does then why did he give that confessional of "Dave should just be glad that we kept him around". The next time Zhan Hu goes to TC it'll be very interesting to see how this alliance theory turns out.
