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Just wanted to put a few of my thoughts and predictions out there before I watch the second episode and they change completely. So here's my ranking of the contestants based on their chances of winning.

17) Bill – meaningless.

16) Nina – the only screentime she got was due to her fucked-up face. Not an excellent sign.

15) Kat – she's funny and adorable and a peacemaker, but she was shown as stupid without Jud-like reservations, so not gonna happen.

14) Alicia – seems loud and obnoxious to the viewer, and a camera-whore to the savvier viewer. About to punch Christina, kinda laughing about the girl with the broken wrist. Shades of Na-Okna.

13) Monica – she is the one woman who, although shown a reasonable ammount, kinda blends with the others. She got two moments: the fire-stealing scene which could've been a defining moment for her, but Christina was more focused on instead, and the pole-dancing scene which wasn't realy a "Aha! Winner!" moment.

12) Matt – condescending jerks have won before, but they were smart, deserving people with douche on the side, not the other way around. A Big sound bang could be heard when Matt didn't catch the chicken. He said things like: "I don't care about those girls" and "we were gonna beat you guys anyway", and Colton used the words "arrogant" and "condescending" to describe him. Game over.
On top of that, he was seemingly the leader of the frat-boy alliance, which actually said, out-loud, the following things:
"what exactly are they gonna do about it? Nothing!"
"It's an easy alliance, we are the young, fit guys"
"Everybody else is screwed" (+ evil laugh)
"It's the dominant alliance so I'm sitting pretty as far as I'm concerned"
"they're getting dehydrated, which is a big advantage."
"You're at war. They're down – keep'em down"

11) Christina – She was up against Alicia, which gave the editors plenty of ammunition to paint her as a protagonist, but instead I felt both of them got their hands dirty at tribal, and no one benefitted from the situation.

10) Troyzan – had opportunities to tell us his thoughts, and winner-chances wise, he blew them all, because it only created more sympathy to the other side. "This is my island", "those women are purely all talk right now, the guys will have no problem with everything", "you'll do a dance for us, naked".

9) Tarzan – the possibility of him leading is a big joke to the other men, and to us.

8) Leif – had one inspirational moment, but if he were the winner, the season would've been a celebration of that unique outcome. Judging by the first episode, it isn't.

7) Jay – if Matt is the leader of their alliance, Jay is his right hand man according to the first episode – same "us vs. them" mentality, but without the arrogance, or in other words, without the personification. "I don't wanna help them" and "we're in charge of this game", with sinister music playing in the background.

6) Colton – to his credit, could've been portrayed much more negatively than he was. He revealed to us that it's 4 vs 4 on the man's tribe and that he's in the middle, so obviously the men fought for him, at least to some extent, to join their side. But we weren't shown that. Instead we saw him alone and that made him a bit sympathetic. Also, he showed his funny side and gave us thoughts about his standing in the game.
But we still got an overall negative impression of him, and two moments in particular convinced me that he's not the winner:
- his fall to the net was greeted with a funny Gong sound. In that moment at least, the audience was laughing at him and not with him.
- everybody, and I mean everybody, was shown as working around camp except for him in a segment that painted him as a hopeless outsider, but also as a lazy person.

5) Michael - villainous, charming, sneaky. Again, like Matt, villains have won before, but they always gave us their side of their story. Instead, Michael's reason for stealing the axe according to the editors? "It was too easy" – contrast that with Rupert's shoe-stealing skills. Shady music was playing as he did it, too.

4) Sabrina - smart, outspoken, making a big move, voice of reason. But, the most visible person in a show that always tries to hide its winners, at least a little bit, at least at first. Even freaking Boston Rob was somewhat hidden in the premiere, so why would they go all out now, and with a female no less?
Plus, being symbolized with a rat, sneaking around, is somewhat troubling, and her "this is gonna sound mean" reminded me of Micronesia Cirie in the James medavec, only this time it's at the very start of the season. This exact kind of moments is used to soften the blow when a fan favorite is eliminated.

3) Chelsea
First impression: strong, a country gal, good attitude, impressive with the chicken-catching.
Potential negativity for not sharing the chickens was neutralized with the help of Sabrina mentioning axe-gate: "they definitely played dirty.
Had maybe the key confessional of the episode at a key time – right before the first commercial break. "We're not letting those muscles discourage us at all. Girls, if we all just keep our head in the game, and try to stay, you know, together, and just take the boys down, then we'll be just one huge ball of badassness." Granted, it could be in any of the girls' favor, but she was the one giving it.
(On a side note, I think the women's ability or disability to stay together will be, just like in Vanuatu, a huge theme, especially if you take Kourtney's description of women as conniving bitches into account. But unlike Vanuatu I believe the women will be able to come out on top this time. My prediction – Alicia will bring out the catty side of the women, but people like Kin and Chelsea would out-class and outlast her in the end)
Chelsea also had the second cut to commercials with: "this is a no mercy game", and she was the only contestant to receive a close-up during Kourtney's evacuation.
But, she's only third in my mind because the other two weren't central to the episode but still were shown, whereas she was at the central of the episode's main dilemma. But more importantly, she had the "boys vs. girls" mentality that I think will not be a mentality that a winner in this particular season would possess, because look at who were the most vocal missionaries of that approach – the two big negatives, Matt and Alicia. A shot of Chelsea was shown, along with Monica and Sabrina, when Christina told us some of the girls had "a chip on their shoulder, thinking, like: "we don't need the guys!" it's not so much about pride". In an episode that showed us the nasty side of developing a rivalry, Chelsea was not completely shielded from this frame of mind, and that isn’t good for her chances.

2) Jonas
- Was given the "yeah! Finally!" reaction in Jeff's welcome-to-Survivor speech.
- In the hike, trying to act tough, but hurting inside – a personal, humorous, insight-giving moment instead of flat-out narration.
- Was given a winner's confessional about his occupation and his potential ability to kick ass in spite of it.
- A themed Conf. about confusion over the two tribes living together. "It doesn't look like one world to me, bro, it looks like their world and our world". The season's arc in a nutshell, everybody.
- Got a link to this season's inspirational casting with his kind words to Leif. Kinda like Chris' connection to Chad (and unlike Jenna's to Christy).
- "Jonas with a nice save" at the challenge, but maybe I'm reaching with this one.
But, and that's a big but, a woman is probably winning this, and Jonas is not a woman. Everything is pointing to that. The chicks could've gotten a disastourous edit with their inability to take care of themselves, but instead we got into their struggle and the men were the ones portrayed as mean, distant and unsympathetic. As a group, of course. Jonas was left out of all that, but if he won, that means his team won, and in a season that focuses so much on the rivalry between the two teams, the men's tribe would've gotten some rootable moments as a whole.
Plus,

Plus, in regards to the decision the men had to make at the challange: "it is the single biggest mistake made in this game, is doing decisions early on that nobody will forgive you for in the end", according to none other than the host himself.
This wasn't shown without a reason.

A woman will win. That's why I believe the man's Karma would bite Jonas' butt in the end, but he will certainly come out of it all as a fan favorite.

And if indeed a woman wins the season, it will, in my opinion, be:

1) Kim
In regards to Chelsea, I talked about how it wasn't great for her to be associated with shady characters like Matt and Alicia in the "we hate the other side", camp. But it also isn't great to be with Colton and Christina in the "desperately throwing yourself at the other side" camp. So how would the winner be portrayed? Why, as a part of the team, who is also willing to work with the other team, of course. And the only person who was manipulated into playing that role is Kim.
Kim: I was just gonna lay low, but I think when the guys started stealing that was a huge rivalry right off the bat (showing matt and bill dropping a box of supplies) and the girls were like "women power!" which I'm not a big fan of but I'm going with it."
Willing to work with the women but not an extremist like some of them.
Kim tries to talk to the guys right between scenes of other girls trying to steal fire – cooperation with the other team to make her team stronger.
Kim shakes her head at tribal when the two ends of the spectrum, Alicia and Christina, go after each other.
Plus,
- When Chelsea gives her epic confessional about the women coming together to beat the men, Kim is shown right behind her.
- When Jeff says: "your time starts now" - a close-up of Kim.
- Sabrina: We all look athletic, we seem pretty bright. Kim: Time will tell.
- Kim is right on the money with her guess that "Matt. And bill. And you" are in charge - 3 out of 4 guys that were shown as having the dominant alliance.
- Kim: "I can kinda understand (the men's decision), but I'm from Texas, where men are chivalrous, no guy I know would've made that choice." – telling us her hometown kind of like Jonas with his occupation, and just like her previous conf., giving us both sides but choosing one in the end.
- Close-up when Jeff announces that "there are 36 days left in this game".

Kim wins. Now, on to episode 2 where it is made clear that Kim doesn't win.