S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins - Survivor Speculation - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks - Message Board

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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getting real		#5341	[-]
Posts: 1782 (05/28/09 5:34 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Probst was obviously so happy with the 7-0 win by the awesome JT that he instructed the editors to tell a straight-forward boring predictable story with no irony, no false doubts, no nothing, other than Brendan and Coach and Debbie and Taj all cheering for JT's inevitable win. Despite what other edgicers may feel, the resulting overall edit was very poor story-telling. *THIS* (not to mention THAT. And THE OTHER.)
taks		#5342	[-]
Posts: 357 (05/28/09 5:43 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: This place is getting mean. I love how people who didn't even pick JT are dissing people who picked Erinn. I picked JT, can I diss people who picked everyone else? But I'll now explain my completely random and illogical thought process that brought me to finally pinpoint JT over Stephen: I found JT's episode one edit to be far more meaningful than Stephen's. After episode one, I assumed that Stephen's edit was merely being used to support Sandy and JT. After episode two, I flipped my thought process back because of Stephen's presence in the JT/Stephen relationship. When it became clear to me that both Stephen and JT were one's to look out for, JT's episode one made me look to him instead. Stephen's personal growth story was just a little too much of a consolation prize for me. The exile scene focus made it seem like he already won in a twisted way. Personal growth just throws up a red flag for me, even though I know some winners have it. Pre-merge, the big decisions always seemed to be JT's. We were twisted into thinking that JT's choice was the most important. Stephen talked strategy a lot and always seemed to have his own interests in mind, but for some reason going into TC we always got JT's final thoughts. If someone is going to dominate the jury vote at the end, a good way to explain that would be to make it clear that they've dominated the game. The final thing was JT's complete lack of OTTP episodes pre-merge. I pointed out a few times that they could've really crafted JT into a superhero but held back just a little so as to never push him over the edge. The focus he got was nicely distributed over his strategy, his camp-life contributions and his challenge performances. All those points aside, Stephen's edit and JT's edit still were far too close to make any definitive predictions of the winner. Stephen clearly had things going for him that JT did not. I would have no idea how to pick JT over Stephen if this were to happen again. Now I'll probably disappear from edgic for the next few months. ETA: I love irony as much as the next person, but I think blaming the editors for poor story telling every season we get it wrong is leading down the wrong path.
getting real		#5343	[-]
Posts: 1783 (05/28/09 6:11 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	^^^^ THIS ALSO.
BlakeB717		#5344	[-]
Posts: 1555 (05/28/09 6:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: Blake, as the loudest anti-Erinn voice, shouldn't you be giving the Shamrocks SOME credit given that your Top 3 for weeks 1-3 was composed of Tyson, Jerry, Brendan, and Sierra? Nice that you finally picked JT to win ep7 - same week as TDT did. And I wasn't an Erinn fan AT ALL until her early ep.1 edit. Half the time I posted about her, it was only to respond to haters dismissing any Erinn support as pretty girl bias That gives altogether too much credit to Erinn's looks - geez, she ain't Sydney or Parvati. Oh I'd watch what you say! Don't you dare, because... If you look about around Episode 4 or 5, I said JT should be on people's contender lists. Episode 6 I said if he gets a CP at the merger he would be my top pick. So I called him way before he was at the top of TDT's thing (and looking at the Spoiler Thread now, TDT was guessing, so not sure how that relates at all...) I started posting my "DON'T FORGET ABOUT JT" posts around Episode 5, actually. So we shouldn't be impressed with people who picked JT but we should with people picking Erinn who lost? Whether you went first or get second place, picking the winner is what edgic is about. I did that, you didn't (actually, you actively said JT shouldn't even be a contender). Sorry craig!!
BlakeB717		#5345	[-]
Posts: 1556 (05/28/09 6:48 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Quick edgic based question: Does JT remind everyone of Tom? MORP/OTTP start... what happens if he gets complex at the merger? Nicely hidden by the EA, yet connected to Stephen (a member). Stephen was willing to betray his own "amazingly brilliant taking-over-the-world" alliance and put his alliance with JT higher. I've been watching the first few episodes and JT's edit in E1 is reminding me a lot of Bob's and overall Tom's premerge edit. I think flf made a good point a couple of episodes back: don't let his relentless MOR-ness make you discount him, because if he gets complex his odds shoot way up. I've been reading some of your posts about JT, Phoenix, and (as scared as I am to say it), you may be right. Crap! This long break is making me paranoid and doubt Sierra. Crap! Crap! We shall see... the merger needs to hurry up and come so I can make a damn decision. This was me before the recap episode. Sorry craig.
BlakeB717		#5346	[-]
Posts: 1557 (05/28/09 6:51 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: The essence of Stephen's edit is that he is shown to be overcoming those handicaps. Whether the negative first impressions about himself are his own or the perception of others, his edit has been/is about how's he's changed/is changing them. Afraid that he'll lose a challenge and be voted off? No problem. He wins the basketball challenge and is shown to be celebrating with gusto. Perceived as being easily led around? No worries. Give him confessionals showing he's very much his own man. Perceived as too nerdy to stay around for very long? Easily fixed. Show him thriving in his social relationships, easily gaining the trust of a multitude of people and show the first person providing the original negative SPV booted primarily because of her annoying behavior. I have a feeling that his own outsdoors self-assessment of one out of ten in will ultimately be shown as just another step in his journey. I hate to say it, but like Micronesia (and sort of Exile Island) Cirie, even though she rocked it strategically... she already won something out of it: personal growth. So did Kenny. Could it be Stephen, again? The emphasis that he is this dork that can be lead around seems a lot more of a character than a winner to me. He's "smitten" and all this stuff with JT, but you don't hear JT saying anything comical like that. Still, I want to see whether JT turns into a Rupert or a Tom W (like a said a couple weeks ago) before I can put him before Stephen. We simply cannot ignore that Stephen is getting the juicy confessionals in the relationship--then again pre-merge so did Gregg and Coby about Tom. Regarding Erinn, again, if we use the theory of "how else would they show her if she won", they would probably have given her a lot more stuff in the first two episodes (especially why she got close to Candace rather then randomly showing it in Episode 3 and having a skyrocket in her visibility). There is no doubt in my mind, and I think we've all known this since Episode 3 or 4, that Erinn is going to flop on Tyson/Debbie/Coach and definitely help take out one (or both) of the males. I wouldn't be surprised to see her join the EA, either. The fact is that Erinn has a story and they did not show her confessional in the recap about switching at the merger in any of the show's actual episodes. If she won, that would be such a huge confessional that they would show (then again, next episode is hopefully the pre-merge week and she could get a Parvati-esque pre-merge confessional). The fact remains that she got two UTRs in the first 2 episodes in a season of 16 people and she got nothing significant other than a thematic-statement about trust and a Sherea-confessional questioning why she's out there (and consistently being miserable and not loosing up or trying to integrate with her tribe at all). Her edit makes sense for someone who goes far (potentially the finals, like Jedi seems to think) but she will get raked over and over by a Timbira-ridden jury about how she refused to socialiaze and how she backstabbed them all. With Tyson and Coach being editted so negatively, I cannot see their characters randomly voting for Erinn to win out of respect of anything--maybe she'll get "robbed" by the bad guys in the end? We shall see. That is if she makes the Final 2. Before Episode 7, important part in red.
taks		#5347	[-]
Posts: 358 (05/28/09 6:52 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Here's my post from 3/06/09 which outlines why JT should be a contender after Episode 4. It is ridiculously long and from the looks of it was only read by flf. I think it shows just how crafted JT's edit was (especially because there were a lot of people who were eliminating him already at this point). He seemed to get ignored the entire season for lack of complexity which I think largely had to do with the way he spoke. taks wrote: The Case for JT: Disclaimer: This will be long, very long. It will be boring and what not. TLDR version in bold throughout this. You're welcome to read the entire thing if you have some work you need to procrastinate on. I might go in to long, incomprehensible ramblings, but I do have a point in all this. I recently went through the first four episodes, carefully looking for JT's edit. There has been a lot of buzz around Sierra and Erinn, with Tyson, Stephen, Brendan, and Taj all getting a fair amount of attention as well. Missing from this mix is JT. His edit might not be the best, but it's far too good to go without review. Episode One Hike to Camp Scene: JT did not get a confessional before the intro. However, he does get the main focus of Jalapao's first scene. We visually see him helping the tribe work the compass and map to get back on track. He gives a great introductory confessional in which we learn where he's from, what he does and how this will affect his game ("accustomed to the weather and mosquitoes", "good at providing"). He then recognizes that this will "put me out in front of everybody else as a threat", which is good game awareness. He states to the tribe that "I'm not trying to be bossy." Spliced at the end of his confessional is a bit about his biggest challenge: "fitting in with the people". Stephen then mentions that JT (not mentioned by name, but implicitly) probably won't "like the anxious New York Jew". We know who JT is, where he is from, his awareness of himself and what he will need to do to excel in this game. This challenge is reinforced via Stephen's SPV. Pre-Tribal Council Scene: JT has one subtitled line which hints at Carolina's boot. He is kept present, but not focused upon. Tribal Council: JT comments that the decision to get rid of Sandy (initially) was done strategically for the greater strength of the tribe. He comments that the tribe didn't know what to expect from Sandy. Again, this question could have gone to everyone, but JT is the one who gets to explain his reasoning. He is kept present. Also, it's important to remember this question for later on: JT made a first impression of Sandy. Episode Two Post-Tribal Council Scene: JT starts fire. This, obviously, could be significant or insignificant, but it's worth noting. He is also the one to tell Sandy that she was kept for the good of the team. Again, not incredibly insightful but JT gets to explain his reasoning. This is the second time he has expressed wanting to keep the tribe strong. We know JT is interested in the good of the tribe. Termite Eating Scene: JT is all-but-absent from this scene. Taj's Husband Scene: JT is the lone guy to give a confessional which explains the ramifications of Taj's situation. He explains his "completely different outlook" on Taj and acknowledges that he "definitely needs the million dollars more than Taj does". He is thinking about the game and looking at winning, evidenced by his explicit reference of the million dollars. Stephen, Joe and Spencer all express varying degrees about who Eddie George is with their comments/confessionals, but none of them link Eddie George to the game. We know JT is thinking about the game. He is involved. Fishing Gear Scene: This scene builds the first shown relationship on Jalapao. Stephen is "smitten" with JT and "thrilled to be out here with him". JT states that they have a "good friendship" which shows that JT is definitely working on fitting in with the people. Stephen feels connected with JT (a true friendship, Stephen, while more calculating never mentions "using" JT, just that JT will want to keep him around longer), which directly contradicts his first impression of JT. JT is definitely doing his best to overcome his biggest challenge in the game, fitting in with the people. He has overcome Stephen's first impression of him. Episode Three Fishing Gear Scene 2.0: Jalapao is shown unable to catch fish, with various people expressing disappointment. JT tells us this is different than what he's used to but "we'll get it under control." ..And he is proven right! JT catches a couple fish (Stephen catches one as well) and the tribe is all grateful for it. Sandy thanks him. JT is clearly fitting in with more than just Stephen. His earlier worry about being "bossy", what Carolina was booted for, does not appear to be the problem. JT is the leader Probst will later criticize Timbira this episode for not having. JT fits in with his tribe. Even when he doesn't initially know how to do things, he has shown the ability to get them under control. JT is likeable and useful. Post-Reward Challenge: JT gets two separate confessionals in the two Jalapao scenes before the immunity challenge about the importance of their win. The first one gives a little more insight, he does straight up reporting about having the tarp and staying dry and then gives us slightly more about how much of an advantage that is in the upcoming challenge. His next confessional follows this one up logically, saying "now's the time to put them down". Not hugely complex, but JT is present and we do get more than, "we won a tarp at the reward challenge", which are the confessionals that Spencer/Joe are receiving on Jalapao. Episode Four Post-Reward Challenge: JT explains to us that "you have to look forward in the game" so it was smart not to take both sacks of beans. We are really getting into JT's head. He is anticipating the possibility of a switch and recognizes the need to look down the road. This is important because in Episode Three confessionals he appears to only be concerned with the immediate challenges. JT is not simply the "good old fashioned Southern boy", he also has game-wit. JT rationalizes the need to anticipate twists down the road. Pre-Tribal Council: JT is given a very understated edit in the pre-tribal discussions, despite being the character who's followed. He recognizes that everyone pulls their weight around camp and comments that Sydney's self-proclaimed sneakiness is "good information" for him. He has a short confessional in which he mentions that he's weighing the pros and cons of Sydney and Sandy's boots. He says he is conflicted, but we do not get explicit information on why he is conflicted. He is, however, one of the few (only?) Jalapao members to be shown as conflicted. We are inside his head the most out of anyone. It appears that JT/Stephen are the only ones who are even aware of the fact that there are multiple boot targets. JT can also be conflicted. He weighs his "big dilemma" when few others recognize that there are two boot options. Tribal Council: This is a lot more throwaway stuff for JT, but there's one interesting thing. He gets to answer the question of "how did Sandy recover" after being the one who was asked "what are you guys talking about in regards to Sandy" in episode one. His opinion before was that, based on first impressions, her removal would strengthen the tribe (or be the least detrimental). Now, he recognizes Sandy's importance: she is the "mother" who "frees us up to do the hard work". He has changed his first impression of Sandy. Spencer, Joe, and Sydney are not shown to have changed their minds. Stephen is not explicitly shown to have changed their minds. JT and Taj are the only two to express Sandy's usefulness. JT has changed others first impressions of himself and changed his first impression of others. Conclusion Overall, JT has a very deep edit. It is not substance-free as some are suggesting. Yes, he is the positive tribe leader via SPV. He, himself, however, has explained a ton of his own thoughts and decisions. He is looking down the road in the game and recognizes his own strengths and weaknesses. He is forming some of the strongest bonds on Jalapao and has been shown as conflicted. All this without ever being a boot target or having gone to Exile Island. I'm not sure what other characterization the editors could have given JT at this point. He hasn't made a whole ton of decisions, but the ones he has been a part of he has explained thoroughly. He is far more insightful than Matty (Gabon) ever was! He clearly is surrounded by enough distractions in Taj and what used to be Sandy. He has been given quite a bit of visibility without being shoved down our throats. Just once again, I do not believe JT has the best edit necessarily. Have his loose ends tied up too quickly? Will he have any sort of doubt? Is he too positive too early? There are problems in his edit, it's not perfect. I don't think anyone has a "perfect" edit though. We'll just have to wait it out to see. ETA: Bah, this is so long the formatting just got atrocious. I have typed up rough transcripts of all the scenes JT is in, but there's no way I could fit that in here.
BlakeB717		#5348	[-]
Posts: 1558 (05/28/09 6:53 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: It's strange how Timbira for the second episode in a row got such little visibility. It's starting to remind me of what happened to Airai and Casaya. Airai (which contained the winner and barely went to TC) got nothing. Jalapao has gone to TC 3 times in a row now. Brendan- total narrator, totally not good, I think he can be eliminated now Erinn- not as insightful or memorable as I had hoped a trip to exile would be--I still think she flops to betray some Timbiras and I think its very likely that she loses the jury vote, I'm going to eliminate her Sierra- I guess getting 3 UTRs in a row isnt too bad considering her tribe never got to TC anymore, and I'm not sure where they would really put her in they did show Timbira, so she remains my top pick by BY A THREAD Stephen- I'm worried his complexity is because he's forced to show strategy, considering his position and his tribe's constant returns to TC, where is his doubt? JT- if he's Tom this is good for him, but if he's Rupert not-so much. I think this was a really good episode for JT if he goes on a CP streak (and it looks like he may), strong #3 spot Tyson- probably can be eliminated but I'd probably put him as contender #4 if all else fails, he hasn't been too distracting pre-merger (especially with all this cool-off) Joe- I think he was OTTN! He was a total joke from not really caring about his injury to finding the fake idol to "I'M GONNA SHOW THEM BY GIVING MY IDOL TO SYDNEY"... Joe is a joke and he ain't charmin' nobody. Taj- surprisingly she had to be shown but she was not distracting nor complex... I highly suggest MOR4 Right after Episode 6 (still before Episode 7)
BlakeB717		#5349	[-]
Posts: 1559 (05/28/09 7:02 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: Tyson was definitely classic OTT. Strategy doesn't mean CP. His confessionals had complexity to them, but got driven over the border to OTT-ville with his extra words. Reminded me a lot of Randy's "King of Gabon" merger Ep. I think Erinn was UTR, she wasn't apart of anything and only got that quick scene with Joe. I barely remember her and Sierra's negative SPVs should warrant a UTRN1, and seemed more memorable than Erinn. On the subject of JT and Stephen.... Tom and Ian, much? Tom/JT, the leader who premerge doesn't get much insight on his position but gets loads of SPV from others about how he has become the leader. Doesn't get much showing of any allainces he has other than his main one with Ian/Stephen. No doubt from him on his position premerge, more doubt from others saying he's probably a threat. Ian/Stephen, nerdy guy who is probably a bit paranoid. Alligns himself (strangely enough) to the machoman but also has his hands in a few others places, such as with Katie/Taj (not that Taj is N like Katie). However, Ian hasn't gotten the complexity that Stephen gets, but I'm beginning to think that Stephen looks a lot better than JT does to the casual viewer. I don't know... I have never had Stephen as my top pick for a reason... 1. JT 2. Stephen At this point. The morning after Episode 7.
BlakeB717		#5350	[-]
Posts: 1560 (05/28/09 7:03 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: That was definitely an awful scene for Sierra. I think its Stephen or JT. 20 minutes into Episode 7
BlakeB717		#5351	[-]
Posts: 1561 (05/28/09 7:06 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: I guess it really is Tom again. F2: JT and Erinn? She probably fits closest to Katie. Just after the IC of Episode 7 JT... not too amazing but he could be a surprise winner/dark horse/underdog as the Exile Alliance takes up screentime Episode 4 post Sorry for so many posts, I don't know how to quote previous pages all on the same page!! craig**, I'm really offended that you 1) think I looked at spoilers for my JT pick and 2) think I'm stupid enough to bank on a spoiler guy's own speculation (since TDT was guessing like everybody else, if you look at the forums now) Last Edited By: BlakeB717 05/28/09 7:12 PM. Edited 1 times.
Oowatanite		#5352	[-]
Posts: 7762 (05/28/09 7:37 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Here's a few of my posts from earlier this season ! After episode one Oowatanite wrote: Watch out for Erinn. She's endgame for sure. After episode three Oowatanite wrote: Erinn will be the last Timbira standing. Guaranteed ! After episode four Oowatanite wrote: Erinn will be the last female standing. No doubt about it. After episode six Oowatanite wrote: Erinn's edit indicates at least Final Three. Bank on it !
BlakeB717		#5353	[-]
Posts: 1563 (05/28/09 7:43 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Be careful, Oo, craig will find away to give him credit for Erinn and say you copied him or hacked his computer for his analyses in MWord. Credit should be given where credit is due, and regarding Erinn's longevity, good job! :) [Other than saying she would be in the F2 with Stephen, though.] Then again, looking back at everyone's premerger assessments, most of us had a better idea than in the merger. Always trust that gut instinct! Hopefully we'll be on the same page again next season, Oo. Gabon was... fun.
Oowatanite		#5354	[-]
Posts: 7763 (05/28/09 7:51 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	taks wrote: I love irony as much as the next person, but I think blaming the editors for poor story telling every season we get it wrong is leading down the wrong path. I disagree. We've all read really good books by excellent authors. We've also all read pretty "stinky" books by the very same authors. In the same way, sometimes the editors get it right and tell a really good story, with lots of clues and false trails and distractions, making it a fun season. Sometimes the editors blow it badly and tell a really poor story. Edgic is designed to dig deeper than the casual viewer would, to identify possible winners using editing guidelines assembled over the years. So when you get badly edited seasons like Gabon, where the winner was ignored for most of the season and the player who came within ONE vote of winning was ignored even more during the season, then the editors did a "stinky" job in that season. And I don't care how boring Bob and Susie were, they could/should have easily been given a much better edit than they ended up getting. JT's win this season was THROWN into the viewers faces. Straight-forward. Predictable. Boring. Stephen had the better Edgic edit by far, with lots of manipulation and doubt thrown in. I figured if Stephen was not the winner, then he was the well-edited distraction for Erinn.
Oowatanite		#5355	[-]
Posts: 7764 (05/28/09 7:59 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	My "After Episode .." post was a parody, Blake. I have been casually perusing this thread from the beginning and JT was almost written off by many edgicers, including me, right up to the merge. A few posters like taks and Phoenix did post reasons for JT to be the edgic choice, and for that they deserve kudos, but most edgicers had Stephen and Sierra as one-two. Once Sierra's edit hit the skids, JT's edgic chances were recognized more and more, but Stephen really did have the better edgic edit. And after Sierra's edit blew up at or just before the merge, Erinn was the only remaining female to be edgically viable.
chaperone		#5356	[-]
Posts: 2680 (05/28/09 10:12 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	My season long quote list would like like "It's Stephen!" Then, "it's Stephen!" Then, ... oh you get the point. I suck!
chaperone		#5357	[-]
Posts: 2681 (05/28/09 10:14 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	oh ehm gee wrote: chaperone wrote: So it seems that if spoilers had info about JT possibly winning and were convinced of it in any sort of near majority and edgic didn't pick JT (except for a handful of exceptional exceptions) that it logically comes to bear that edgic is not being influenced by spoilers. Is my logic flawed? No. But then of course, edgic has failed. Oh yeah totally, I wasn't suggesting otherwise and am totally on board with that (except for the JT pickers like Phoenix et al)...but in past seasons we've been accused of just following spoilers...so at least we can check that off of the list.
oh ehm gee		#5358	[-]
Posts: 2769 (05/29/09 8:08 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chaperone wrote: oh ehm gee wrote: chaperone wrote: So it seems that if spoilers had info about JT possibly winning and were convinced of it in any sort of near majority and edgic didn't pick JT (except for a handful of exceptional exceptions) that it logically comes to bear that edgic is not being influenced by spoilers. Is my logic flawed? No. But then of course, edgic has failed. Oh yeah totally, I wasn't suggesting otherwise and am totally on board with that (except for the JT pickers like Phoenix et al)...but in past seasons we've been accused of just following spoilers...so at least we can check that off of the list. True, but then it seems like every season edgic isn't attacked for following spoilers, they're attacked because they failed at picking the winner (see last season).
wallduck		#5359	[-]
Posts: 542 (05/29/09 11:27 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Stephen had the better Edgic edit by far, with lots of manipulation and doubt thrown in. The majority agreed with this. To put it another way, edgic is skewed toward picking CP edits. I alternate between these opinions: Edgic is too skewed toward CP edits. Both Stephen and JT had sufficiently meaningful edits, and edgic isn't precise enough to distinguish the winner in such cases.
OzzyRules		#5360	[-]
Posts: 18 (05/29/09 11:37 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The most manipulated edit vs the most meaningful edit are two different things. Something to keep in mind for next season.

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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