Erinn was seconds away from winning the F4 IC. JT would have been booted and Erinn wins in the end. Oh well.I doubt that. I don't think the jury hated Stephen, they just loved JT immensely. The biting comments arose due to Stephen telling Erinn he'd take her and his backstabbing of Taj. If Erinn stays through an immunity win, she probably looks more like a jury threat due to her breaking up Jala3. I think Stephen takes Taj, and even if he doesn't, I say he beats Erinn at worst 4-3 (Erinn netting Sierra Taj and probably Debbie). And who's to say Taj doesn't beat Erinn in the F3IC and takes Stephen?
I didn't realize that Stephen was so hated among the jurors.
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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins
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 JaMalle |
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Posts: 4512 (05/17/09 9:52 PM) Registered User |
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GrenadeJumper85 |
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Posts: 10307 (05/17/09 9:53 PM) |
Stephen was unbelievably horrible at the jury questioning, I was completely surprised.
After seeing that, I have no doubt that Taj and Erinn would have smoked his ass in the vote as well. |
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Seacrest22 |
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Posts: 465 (05/17/09 9:55 PM) |
I'm not sure about that. I think JT threw him off his game and got in his head. Up against someone he wasn't as close with, maybe he's able to keep
his composure better.
I guess we'll never know. |
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The Marquesan Godfather |
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Posts: 11378 (05/17/09 9:56 PM) Registered User |
Oowatanite wrote:How do you place doubt on his journey to the final two and his easy win when the cannon fodder aren't even entertaining booting him? When everyone likes and respects him? The players this season rolled over. That's all this season ever was. |
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GrenadeJumper85 |
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Posts: 10308 (05/17/09 9:56 PM) |
He was a stumbling mess even before JT started in on him though.
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zeneth18 |
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Posts: 1281 (05/17/09 9:57 PM) Registered user |
Oowatanite wrote:And to think Stephen was more likable than Sierra, yet he wasn't even in the top 3. |
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craig |
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Posts: 15653 (05/17/09 10:06 PM) Registered User |
Edgic had the F3 as it's top 3 candidates from way back, so not bad.
What threw us off: 1 Coach hate - Dragonslayer was supposed to be the Sugar of this season, and Editor Probst was in love with him. Coach got his Warrior winning, he got him doing the "honorable" thing, taking his buddy, and being rewarded. Hell, Coach might as well have scripted the Finale. So the "honouable opponent" confessional ep.1 was in no way ironic. 2. Lack of doubt if JT\Stephen were the F2 - correct, but it was because Stephen ended up as the male Katie G. Unanimous vote, so they didn't try for doubt prior to the finale or give us reasons why jurors might vote for Steve or against JT. Just last minute worries that JT had done a Colby. 3. Erinn would make some noise in Finale - correct, but it was at Taj's expense. Only JT winning 2 ICs and doing the "honourable" thing keep her from F2. I guess Edgic folks should watch for pro-mastermind bias in future, after losing twice with Kenny and Stephen. |
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Oowatanite |
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Posts: 7677 (05/17/09 10:09 PM) Registered User |
The Marquesan Godfather wrote: Easy. They could have manufactured some doubt. Or at least eased up on the platitudes by Brendan, by Coach, by Sierra, by Taj, by Debbie. Instead the editors just mailed it in this season. Interesting tidbit about the lie detector fellow. |
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scepticA |
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Posts: 1652 (05/17/09 10:34 PM) Registered User |
Wow. seven-zip. People are surprised that Stephen did so poorly, but I wonder if that was based on our expectations because of edgic? We heard his
confessionals, often edited severely and making him look very sharp, but how many times did we see him talking to others in a clear, concise voice? This is
something that edgic can't resolve.
Like so many here I had Stephen/JT as my winners picks for a long time, but chose Stephen for a variety of logical reasons, all of which were blown up in my face when he faced the jury (and JT was great - his sigh and downward glance when Stephen said he'd take Erinn was classic, and fake per the reunion.) General comments. I thought the first part of the show moved rather slowly, and thought they were playing up Erinn for an F2 appearance. The Taj voteout sucked for a variety of reasons, and the editing made it appear as a doubleplus ungood decision. When JT won that very peculiar final challenge (I didn't mind it as much as others, but thought it was, overall, rather weird... and JP's talking the WHOLE DAMN TIME would have ticked me off royally - my spouse said, "God, you'd just have to blot out JP's voice...) I thought that it was Erinn/JT in the final. When he voted out Erinn, though, we both said, "Tina-Colby!" But no. However, I think that was one of the most entertaining and interesting FC's in Survivor history because the two guys genuinely liked each other and treaded gently around any serious dissing until the end. It's rare to have the two argue, and I think it was their closeness that caused it. Very enjoyable! One thing missing from a somewhat decent reunion show was discussion of the vote - why JT? Did Stephen even have a chance? Maybe with it 7-0 the producers decided they made the result so damned obvious through the course of the game that JP didn't have to ask the "obvious" question. Coach is a joke, and thanks to Oo for the heads-up on that "lie detector" service! I did like the comment of his girl friend, though. Samoa looks great! |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 671 (05/17/09 10:35 PM) Registered User |
craig wrote:I agree... supporting this is that the MORD in both cases - Kenny & Stephen - were waaaaay to low in the MORD to be viable winners choices, even as early as the merge, E7& E8. Aras & Yul are the only winners to ever be at the low end of the MORD (and - interestingly - that was in back to back seasons). I think it is important for edgic to understand that the winner must fall in the Middle of the Road for THEIR season. Example, So if you have several players early on who are high vis and high tone, then the winner will likely be also an "off the chart" sort of winner, like Bob (Low-vis but high tone, early on, with a nice CP leveling later on). If your early losers are mid-to-high-vis, mid-tone, then the winner will be mid-vis (maybe an episode or 2 that are hig-vis, but hitting the right episodes, like merge or a switch). i've been finding the MORD to be a very useful tool in checking the winner's edit. It's taken me a few seasons to learn how it works, but it is really useful for a self-check. I'll be posting a final MORD analysis soon.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
05/17/09 10:38 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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ncassaro |
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Posts: 1212 (05/17/09 10:39 PM) |
But damn it, if we stop looking for masterminds they'll throw another freaking Todd at us.
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SwineForkbeard |
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Posts: 2239 (05/17/09 10:44 PM) Registered user
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craig |
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Posts: 15658 (05/17/09 11:01 PM) Registered User |
Of course picking the winner is an educated guess.
We correctly picked Yul over Ozzy and best the spoiler sites in S13, and this was kind of a redo with opposite results. And Swine, it's easy to sound superior when you limit yourself to being a nattering nabob of negativism.
Last Edited By: craig
05/17/09 11:25 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 672 (05/17/09 11:04 PM) Registered User |
ncassaro wrote: but.... the true mastermind edit however is very different than what we have seen lately. The true mastermind mind edit... of which, we have arguably have had only 4 of.... Richard, Yul, Earl & Todd... start off their season much differently than the likes of Kenny or Stephen. A true mastermind winner's edit starts off with 3 out of the first 4 Episodes with a CP. (all 4 of these winners have this pattern). Ken's early edit (first 4 episodes CP/UTR/UTR/CP) had 2 close calls.... Both of which were decided to be CP even though the majority in both cases were leaning to a different rating (OTT in E1, MOR in E4). Stephen's early episodes were MOR/CP/MOR/MOR. Kenny started off more similarly to winners like Parvati or Chris,...but his edit spiralled into obtuse self-conceit. Stephen's did not start out correctly for a "mastermind' or a "partial matermind" winner and ended up too cold (my personal feeling... I felt like i didn;t know very much about him and had less invested in him as a winner. The same reason that i discounted Sierra by E4... I knew nothing of her, why do i care if she wins). Anyway... my point is that there does appear to be specific patterns in the pre-merge for the winners.... the masterminds have one, the partial-masterminds have one, the middle-of-road winners have one and so do the UTR-style winners. As Only The Hunter has said....the post merge is designed to mess with what you already know. If <we> focus on what the pre-merge tells us, we can identify the winner.... regardless of what the type. <A, AB, B or C>.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
05/17/09 11:08 PM.
Edited 2 times.
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Brazil Luvs Ami |
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Posts: 313 (05/17/09 11:10 PM) |
One thing I learnt: I always pick the wrong choice
 PG, Cirie, Matty and now Stephen....
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Seacrest22 |
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Posts: 474 (05/17/09 11:12 PM) |
At least you have something in common with astro.
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sunflower101 |
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Posts: 4641 (05/17/09 11:16 PM) |
craig wrote:Probst was way off in who the audience would like this year (other then JT) considering he was shocked that people liked Taj. Why wouldn't the audience like Taj considering all of the time spent on the exile alliance? Sierra was popular because she got a positive edit and many liked her because she was the nemisis of Coach. |
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beatles20147 |
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Posts: 12305 (05/17/09 11:24 PM) Registered User |
beatles20147 wrote:Bam. |
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sunflower101 |
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Posts: 4642 (05/17/09 11:31 PM) |
I am usually not this anti-Probst but he rubbed me the wrong way at the reunion. I thought some good points were made about how Probst would misread who the
audience would like.
I have never been a fan of some people that just want a woman to win to just have another female winner. I hate the Becky/Sundra type of game play. I don't understand why Probst thought that people wouldn't like Taj. That was a pretty clear cut cause of sexism in my book. Taj probably should have been more proactive toward the end of the game but clearly she made a lot of game moves early on (the exile alliance even if it didn't last). So I don't think Taj was just a coat tail rider. I also thought that Erinn played a pretty good game for the hand she was dealt. I also haven't seen this mentioned much. Notice how Probst was shocked that JT and Stephen became good friends. Probst seemed to view it in terms of the QB of the football team being friends with the Nerd in high school.He seemed a bit biased in his question to JT about him becoming friends with Stephen. |
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Werwanderflugen |
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Posts: 217 (05/17/09 11:41 PM) Registered user |
Reading back through the first few pages of this thread, Stephen was barely on anyone's radar, while JT was a semi-popular choice.
Perhaps, regarding these two, we should have stuck with our "first impressions." (I know I'm kicking myself over it!) |
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Even Probst commented at the reunion that Sierra was DESPISED
by pretty much EVERYONE in the game. And for the "argument" that Sierra was in the F3 of the Sprint money, I'll give you a pretty solid
guestimate of the percentages - JT 60%, Taj 35%, Sierra 2%.
- Survivor Sucks
- Lions, Tigers, Survivors - Oh My!
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- MESS Hall Tribal Council
- MESS Hall Archive
- Survivor Speculation
- Survivor 20+
- The Amazing Race
- Big Brother
- Big Brother - PAST SEASONS
- The Apprentice
- American Idol
- American Idol PAST SEASONS
- The Mole
- Lost
- Other Shows That Suck
- Off Topic
- Clubs That Suck. No, Really.
- The Dump
- Monster Island
- Purgatory
- FAQ
- In Memory, 9/11/01
