I know it looks at the moment like Stephen will win, but you never know.
Yes, the irony may be that there is no irony and JT gets his win.
0 Kudo
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Family Final Four
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 fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6193 (05/15/09 12:21 PM) Registered User |
Yes, the irony may be that there is no irony and JT gets his win. |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6194 (05/15/09 12:23 PM) Registered User |
Does anyone else's font size occasionally come up as really large at times. Yuku still seems to have weird hiccups occasionally.
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JLK Name |
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Posts: 1526 (05/15/09 4:41 PM) Registered User |
fat little fingers wrote: Well Stephen talk twice during the first 10mins of Episode 1. So that makes the winner. |
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Lady V |
statistics | ||
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Posts: 723 (05/15/09 7:26 PM) |
The logical thing for Stephen to do would be to ally with Taj and Erinn and vote off JT, because JT is the only one no one can win against. Notice, though,
that they could've voted JT off last night--THAT would've been the "logical" choice--they could have, and they didn't. Family ties go
deep at this point in the game. If somehow Stephen, Taj, and Erinn do decide to vote JT off at F4, it is obvious that Stephen will win against the remaining 2,
so, again, the logical thing would be to eliminate Stephen at F3, which leaves a mother and child in the F2, with the edge to the mother to win. However, there
are always the unpredictable immunity challenges... At F3, those are usually balance endurance challenges, which give the edge to women (lower center of
gravity). But we have seen, again and again, how illogical survivor players are. The stress of the situation causes them to fall back upon family. It's
very hard to betray a Father, as Stephen has just learned, and if they decide to vote him off, they are killing the Father of the jury members, not just their
own... In my mind, Stephen is vulnerable at F4 if JT determines his son betrayed him.
Remember, also, that of 12 appearances of F in F4, the F has won half the time. 25% of the time he goes out at F3, and 25% of the time he goes out at F4. He has never been in second place, and I can't imagine he could be this time, if he's in F2. So just by being in the F4, JT has the best statistical chance to win the game. As for M, there have only been 2 seasons in which there was no M in the F4 (seasons 6 and 10). In the other 15 seasons, the M won 20% of the time, and went out at F3 26% of the time and F4 26% of the time. M got second place 13% of the time. The M has the second best statistical chance to win. The other seasons have been split, with 4 sons and 4 daughters winning the game (a kid has won survivor 47% of the time, overall, but only 17% of the time when there have been two parents in the F4--kids tend to win when there is only a single mother in the F4--hence, the "son or daughter with strong adult-like tendencies"); there has been a son or daughter in the F4 in every season. The kids have the least chance to win, although, of course, it has happened before. Again, I am in the West--I hope people will still be here when the show is over out here!! :) I can't wait!! |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6197 (05/15/09 9:20 PM) Registered User |
I'll be here, LV. :)
If it is a Stephen win, that would favor Taj as the number 2, yes? |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 659 (05/15/09 9:39 PM) Registered User |
Lady V wrote:it's actually 10 times now, with 9 wins. ETA: Awesome analysis LadyV....I love statistics.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
05/15/09 9:43 PM.
Edited 2 times.
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Lady V |
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Posts: 724 (05/15/09 11:22 PM) |
Phoenix1269 wrote:ETA: Thanks, Phoenix! |
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urrout |
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Posts: 1881 (05/16/09 9:26 AM) Registered user |
Lady V wrote:Jeff: J.T. - If he gets to the final two he probably wins...unless he goes up against... TAJ - This would be quite a show down. Two of the most well liked people in the game. STEPHEN - Best bet is to go up against Erinn, who he could probably beat. ERINN - A long shot due to her betrayal - hard for her to get votes from the former Timbira members on the jury. Might be smart to take her all the way to the end. You would almost think Jeff was reading this thread. |
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2653 (05/16/09 11:57 AM) Registered user |
Any ideas about whom is most likeable, second most, etc.? I'd say Erinn is the least likeable and therefore can't win. My guess is JT is most likeable, with Stephen second and Taj third, which would mean Stephen has the best chance.I think that is what has been shown by editing. I think for the people out there, still in the game and already on the jury, Taj would be second. I don't think they dislike Stephen, just that "likeable" isn't the first thing that pops into their mind when they think of him. I haven't been getting Stephen and JT as twins exactly, more as two halves of a whole.
Last Edited By: birdlady
05/17/09 2:16 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 660 (05/16/09 7:52 PM) Registered User |
Lady V wrote:
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Lady V |
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Posts: 725 (05/16/09 9:20 PM) |
urrout wrote: Well! That little cheater! hahahahahaha ;) Birdlady, did you mean Stephen would be 3rd most likable? From what Jeff said (pointed out by urrout, above), it sounds like Taj is second most likable amongst the survivors. But, I believe Kirblar's observation was made based on likability ratings on the cbs website in the early days. You'd vote for your favorite to win, and there'd be a bar graph. That is, not on the survivors' liking of each other. ETA: How about that "MOM" label for Taj in the preview!! Thanks for the info, Phoenix-- anyone else remember S14 well enough to say who was second? I'll go with your memory, Phoenix--I clearly remember Earl and Dreamz and Yau, but not Cassandra for some reason. |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 664 (05/17/09 12:44 AM) Registered User |
i just realized...
we have another true FF4. awesome! F: JT M: Taj S: Stephen D: Erinn. and i think we even picked that combo. Yay us! |
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Quiddity |
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Posts: 5502 (05/17/09 9:41 AM) Registered User |
Lady V wrote:Kinda hard to vote JT out when he has immunity... 
Daughter FTW tonight! |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6204 (05/17/09 11:50 AM) Registered User |
After bringing Stephen into her alliance with Brendan, Taj deferred the decision-making to Stephen and JT. Her common response to a question from Stephen
about a move was "If you think it will work, I will..."
It was always Stephen who was shown as the one consulting Taj, not JT. Stephen was the one who ran around and got everyone on the same page. Taj's lack of active plotting is a big Mother trait. It kept her non-threatening to her "two protectors". Erinn had approached JT. Stephen was always shown consulting and hanging with Taj. Father/Daughter, Mother/Son. If not a Father/Son F-2, then a combo of F/D or M/S? |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6210 (05/17/09 8:51 PM) Registered User |
The Son betrayed the Mother. Not good.
Father/Son F-2. Father's gonna take it. Stephen should have stayed true to Mama at the F-3! That was where he lost the jury. |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 669 (05/17/09 9:40 PM) Registered User |
nicely done FF4!
the father wins over the son, yet again. damn, that is soooooooooooo weird! I <3 it!
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
05/17/09 11:14 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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JaMalle |
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Posts: 4513 (05/17/09 10:20 PM) Registered User |
what an interesting read. ^_^
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Die Apokalyptischen Reiter |
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Posts: 1594 (05/17/09 10:53 PM) |
fat little fingers wrote: Agreed. He lacked Aras' loyalty. |
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Lady V |
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Posts: 726 (05/17/09 11:25 PM) |
WHOO HOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Whew. I was getting nervous there for a minute. :)
Yes, Stephen lost the jury when he urged the vote against Taj... he lost me, too. I was very disappointed in him! Survivors forget about the parental relationships the jury have at their peril. Nothing worse than seeing someone kill your parent and being powerless to stop it! Off with his head!! Loved the moment in the reunion when Taj says they never even talked about voting off the dad--"it never came up." S18: F,S,D,M I am so proud of us! |
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Lady V |
Final! | ||
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Posts: 727 (05/17/09 11:29 PM) |
~~**~ FF4 RESULTS FOR S18 ~**~~
1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. (14 of 18 seasons) YES! 2) F4 will not contain two people with the same role. (13 of 18) YES! 3) There will not be 2 Fs or 2Ms in the F6 (2/18). (In the odd situation where there are two Ms or two Fs, one will be a failed M or F.) NO: Two Ms this time until F5. 4) The F2 will not be two dads nor two moms. (0/18) YES! 5) the F2 generally will not be two kids. (has been only 5 of 18) However, in the rare case the F2 is two kids, at least one will be an "unusual" child with strong "adult" (leader) tendencies. YES! 6) The winner will not be E. (0/18) YES! 7) If a parent is in the F2 with a non-parent, the parent will win. (10 times parent-nonparent has been in F2; 9 times the parent has won) YES! |
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- In Memory, 9/11/01
