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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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getting real		#4541	[-]
Posts: 1722 (05/09/09 10:52 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	CL said: Stephen's "it could be you" re: immunity runs... He's come a long way from me forgetting his name -TJ? For me, it is this comment that has sealed JT's fate. Stephen's comment, taken in conjunction with JT's subsequent inability to win IC's shows that it was intended to be ironic. Note the unusual amount of attention given to Stephen's IC victory by Probst. Remember that Stephen's fear in the beginning was that he would fall over in a challenge and be voted out. As with this last challenge, his entire edit has been about overcoming negative first impressions, his own demons and, ultimately, JT himself . (Yes, JT, too, managed to figure out the challenge, and the editors made sure that we heard that he had done so. However, his misfortune, both in that challenge and in the game itself, is that Stephen ultimately stood in his way.)
pushingjate		#4542	[-]
Posts: 2894 (05/09/09 12:20 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Erinn winning will bring us back to the glory days of Amazon finale, when Jenna defeated the odds. It must happen once more in two weeks.
fat little fingers		#4543	[-]
Posts: 6170 (05/09/09 12:23 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think (if Stephen wins) that this last IC may have been the core around which the editors built his story. JT, the leader, the man ahead in overcoming the physical obstacles. Stephen, a clutz compared to JT, but the winner, based on his ability to both befriend the strongest threat and out-think his competitors. Stephen's game thoughts have been in nearly every one of his confessionals, all the way back to his sizing up the competition on the truck ride and noting that he's probably safe for at least the first vote, because of the crazy lady. His confessionals are always focused on his survival and his goal of reaching the end.
unduli clone		#4544	[-]
Posts: 5665 (05/09/09 12:57 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The two things that scare me the most about Stephen are his EP01 edit and the pre-merge tribal edits. We've seen how important premieres can be - even Bob had a great one. Stephen's was lackluster and was really inconsequential to him as an individual. His pre-commercial break (uncredited) confessional pinpointed Sandy as the crazy lady, and his later one built up JT and his premiere edit. Yes, we got to know Stephen a little bit (the New Yorker) but if you compare the episode to past winners' premieres, it falls short. Likewise, Timbira had all the pre-merge goodies. I know that complex tribe theory is rather dead in the water at this point, but look at last year, where we clusterfucked onto Kenny and Matty post-merge, regardless of how bizarrely Fang was edited, and how well Kota was edited (even if it didn't seem "complex"). This season, even when Jalapao went to TC it was a dud. The episodes were filled with Timbira and what they would do next, constantly giving us potential boot targets even though they didn't go to TC after EP03. This could be interpreted to mean that the winner comes out of Timbira, or it could be a throwback to S9. Lopevi was more positive than Yasur but dull, while Yasur was complex and slightly negative. Yasur's complexity was chalked down to the jury being made up of five Yasur's, and odds are we'll have a jury made up of at least five Timbira's this time around. There is a difference, though - NuLopevi (the tribe that best compares to Jalapao) only went to TC once, while Jalapao went four times. Take it how you will. If Erinn were to win, it would be new for a winner - she's had no real alliance the entire time, though this past episode it seems as though she's more closely aligned with JT/Stephen than we expected. We've never had a winner who was such a floater, so maybe she'd be edited strangely. She's also a woman. I still think Stephen is the winner, but based on premieres (Erinn's was actually pretty good) and tribal edits, I wouldn't be too surprised if Erinn sneaked in there. I guess she would be my #2 at this point.
cindidindi76		#4545	[-]
Posts: 17725 (05/09/09 1:45 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hey ncassaro, how's your weather right now? I feel like I'm in the middle of a monsoon, and they say there's actually a possibility of a tornado. WTF? I'm surprised at Debbie getting P's. I thought we were supposed to think she was annoying. I'm kind of surprised too. I could see M even, but straight P? Odd. JT - CP4 I saw his edit as 50% narration and 50% insight…I'll give him the CP. Did I hear him tell his sister that he misses his cows??? Why is that so funny? No different than someone missing their dog, really. Plus, I'm sure after the constant plotting and waryness of the game, just chilling with some docile cows probably sounds nice, lol.
wallduck		#4546	[-]
Posts: 536 (05/09/09 2:10 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	A "winners edit" is really a fallacy in my mind. I dismiss the term because it implies that there's just one. There's an unlimited variety. Edgic evaluations are relative, by definition. A player's chances of winning have meaning only when compared to those of the other players in a season. Similarly, episode-ratings of complexity, visibilty, and tone are always done by comparing edits in the individual episode. Seasons with low-visibilty/complexity winners tend to lack edits of higher complexity. That's the cue to look for a low-complexity winner. But seasons that have characters with meaningful editing at the merge have CP winners.
fat little fingers		#4547	[-]
Posts: 6171 (05/09/09 2:31 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Stephen's was lackluster and was really inconsequential to him as an individual. I think you're looking at the wrong parts of Stephen's ep1 confessionals, unduli. Why Stephen's edit is structured through the entire season to show why he wins: His Ep1 first confessional: "We have the strung-out old lady and it is sorta encouraging to have her, because you know you're not gonna be the first to go." This sets the template for most of Stephen's confessionals for the whole season. He is sizing up those around him from the point of his progress in the game and not from personal admiration or animosity. He may think that Sandy's a "strung out old lady", but it is from a tactical perspective and not something personally vindictive like Coach or Tyson's reactions to Sierra and Erinn. Or for that matter, like Erinn's first impression liking of Tyson ("...Love him!..."), or JT's recent hatred of Sierra. Stephen has avoided all the personal emotional involvement that has had nearly everyone else in distracted turmoil at one point or another. He's described every personal relationship from how it benefits or threatens his goal. In Ep2, Stephen sizes up his admiration of JT from his strategic position. Stephen first admits, "...I'm thrilled to be out here with him. He's like no one I'd ever met back home... I'm smitten!" The editors then show us that Stephen is right in his assessment that JT's friendship is mutual: JT, "...He's a city boy and /break/ I'm an Alabama cattle farmer. /break/ but we get along really well, so /break/ we have a good friendship." The editors then give us Stephen's hallmark point of view, ie, 'How will this person help me to get further in the game?', (remember Sierra's recent TC speech!): Stephen, "...But, if he thinks I'm the goofy right hand man, he's gonna want to keep me around longer." Bingo! This is the way this season has played out for Stephen. And JT still talks every episode about how "me and Stephen" are going to keep going "to the end". That is JT's fatal edit flaw and the story of strategic thinker Stephen's win.
unduli clone		#4548	[-]
Posts: 5668 (05/09/09 3:53 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Looking backwards at the season, I can see the importance of Stephen's first episode. Working frontward from the premiere, I'm just not convinced. I think that the casual viewers are usually pummeled rather heavily with the winner in the premiere. Stephen's episode, especially in comparison to those around him, just doesn't stack up with previous winners. I appreciate your analysis (and always do <3), but taken on an episodic basis instead of in relation to the later episodes, it doesn't have the same OOMPH that I've come to expect, based on previous winner patterns.
chad6		#4549	[-]
Posts: 3340 (05/09/09 6:30 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	cindidindi76 wrote: JT - CP4 I saw his edit as 50% narration and 50% insight…I'll give him the CP. Did I hear him tell his sister that he misses his cows??? Why is that so funny? No different than someone missing their dog, really. Plus, I'm sure after the constant plotting and waryness of the game, just chilling with some docile cows probably sounds nice, lol. Except you don't kill your dog for meat and eat it. At least in Alabama.
sunflower101		#4550	[-]
Posts: 4600 (05/09/09 7:21 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	dcsurvivor wrote: I agree with CL......I think the final 2 is JT/Stephen......while people on here think the duo is being shoved down our throats....there is a reason for that (and it is not all about cockiness), it is to explain how they make it to the final 2......While I think Stephen is very bright and the mastermind between the two, I think JT will pull off the win....... What has been shoved down our throats is how much everyone loves JT......again, this episode with Debbie wanting to give JT immunity at F3....she says "I love you guys", yet it is JT she wants to give the idol to.....I have felt, since they first started the "I love JT" campaign, that it really hasn't been backed up......sure, he seems like a nice guy but really nothing special or out of the ordinary, yet everyone loves him......even Coach.....JT made a comment in this episode about how he doesn't really want to betray Coach but he will, and yes, Coach will vote for him to win in the end...... I think the jury will appreciate Stephen's efforts and will give him BIG kudos for being the awkward, gangly city kid who braves the wild and who does it really well, but the win will go to JT... in a very close vote......and to those who felt first impressions was the theme of this season, maybe so, but maybe it wasn't just about Sandy and Sierra's first impressions, it was the everyone loves JT first impression that becomes relevant to the endgame. If not, then why show it? They could have just edited him and Stephen as really strategic players.... There has been no talk of JT or Stephen turning on each other.......why? Maybe, because it doesn't happen............. I think that Stephen is in the final 2 with either JT or Erinn. I think that Taj is going to be a possible surprise blindside. It would be a surprise to the audience if the Jalapao 3 don't stick together. It could be that JT wins the final immunity challenges so nobody has a chance to vote him out. If their is a tie at the final 4, that Stephen wins a tie breaker vote. JT could win the final 4 immunity. So it is Stephen vs Erinn or Taj. Erinn doesn't have a final 2 alliance with anybody that has been shown. She could be used to take out JT.
getting real		#4551	[-]
Posts: 1723 (05/09/09 8:02 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	UC said: Looking backwards at the season, I can see the importance of Stephen's first episode. Working frontward from the premiere, I'm just not convinced. By contrast, it was Stephen's first episode edit that convinced me he was a front-runner and to have him in my first two since then. As I noted above, his IC win is a microcosm of his season-long edit: Being aware of his stumbling, physical handicaps and working hard to think his way to a win - just ahead of others who may have thought they had it in the bag.
AllMenAreIslands		#4552	[-]
Posts: 25891 (05/09/09 8:11 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oowatanite wrote: 9RedWing19 wrote: Most people here have reconciled themselves to Danni's edit because she was going up against the 500 pound Visibility gorilla. There ain't no such beast this season, so, IMO, there is no reason to "hide" Erinn should she have won. You don't think that Coach is this season's "500 pound Visibility gorilla" ? Also, here's the thing - they are not "hiding" Erinn. She has not been in any alliances pre-merge. She was not involved in the formation of the exile alliance. She was not sent to Exile until the last pre-merge episode. She was not part of the initial twist where Sierra and Sandy were "voted off". But she was not INV at times like Debbie and Candice and Sydney. And she did not get FIVE straight UTRs like Sierra did. Here are Erinn's "official" ratings so far - UTR2, UTR2, CPM4, CPP3, UTR1, MOR2, MOR2, MOR2, CP3, MORP2, with another MORP2 coming for this most recent episode. Are these ratings THAT BAD ? Bad enough to write her off ? No Sir-ee, Bob ! (pun intended) Erinn was not a big part of ANY of the pre-merge drama/strategy/craziness. Yet she was not ignored completely in any of those episodes - she always got something. Comments on other players. Comments on her own life. Comments on her place in the game and in the Timbira tribe. Funny comments. Snarky comments. Thoughtful comments. Something. If Erinn ends up winning, how do they change her pre-merge edit ? Give her some more "something" scenes ? And reduce the time given to characters like Tyson and Coach and Sandy ? Or reduce the time devoted to the ground-breaking EA ? Or reduce the time given to endgamers Stephen, JT and Taj ? And DNS, the doubt being given to Erinn in the preview is GOOD for her edgically. The severe lack of doubt for Stephen and JT is one of the biggest problems for them edgically. Oo, I thought you were nuts with your Erinn-wins theory, but you and DNS raise some very interesting points. Given the emphasis on Stephen's relationships, however, if Erinn is the winner I see this season as a "how the loser lost" kind of edit. We have seen so much about Stephen - his connection with Taj is well-established, with JT is well-established and together with JT and Coach is also established. I feel more and more like Stephen is the central character and the one juggling what are potentially too many close/personal relationships. Coach's edit is more about his personal philosophy of life than it is about the game. He always seemed a bit of a comedic curiosity but last week he was starting to get made serious fun of. I don't see him facing the jury. Taj had a great deal more face time in the first half of the season but what were we shown at the Auction? People giving her their money so she could buy family time. That point wasn't lost on Stephen & JT just like it's not lost on Coach. Taj is a threat because she's so well-liked. So, let's say that the final 3 are Erinn, JT and Stephen. Whichever of Coach and Taj goes next, at final 4 Erinn wins immunity and JT/Stephen aren't going to boot each other, obviously. However, JT and Stephen could misjudge the jury badly and rather than give a vote to either of them, the jury mostly votes for Erinn, since they don't have a big grudge against her. Was she particularly unfriendly with anyone? Not that I recall. She makes it to the end almost by accident, not by great design, but probably more thanks to a very timely Immunity win. I'll say this. The liberties taken with Physics Bob's edit give me pause. I question Edgic's ability to pinpoint the winner by the merge. Players with a strong Ep 1 Edit simply cannot be eliminated from contention so easily. The criteria to keep them in contention can be thinner provided a distraction edit actually helps explain the result. It could just be the story wherein a UTR girl wins the game because two friends/allies were from the tribe with fewer numbers on the jury. If this is the first time that the 3rd person of the F3 with no strong allies wins, how else could you show it when she's up against two people who were close allies with each other from the beginning? It's an interesting theory, I can see now. It's also a bit of a long shot.
Seacrest22		#4553	[-]
Posts: 316 (05/09/09 8:17 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I question Edgic's ability to pinpoint the winner by the merge. I love all of these people who are doing edgic, but have zero faith in the concept of edgic to begin with. Bob's win really fucked with your heads, didn't it?
getting real		#4554	[-]
Posts: 1724 (05/09/09 8:44 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Good to hear from you, AMAI. A couple of observations: So, let's say that the final 3 are Erinn, JT and Stephen. Whichever of Coach and Taj goes next, at final 4 Erinn wins immunity and JT/Stephen aren't going to boot each other, obviously. Not sure that the latter part of that is all that obvious. I think the edit has been conditioning us to expect something treacherous. However, JT and Stephen could misjudge the jury badly and rather than give a vote to either of them, the jury mostly votes for Erinn, since they don't have a big grudge against her. Was she particularly unfriendly with anyone? Not that I recall. She was unfriendly with everyone on her tribe. A cancer even. That's why she was on the outs. However, that's only the game reality. Ironically, editing-wise, the fact that she could receive votes from people who hated her with a passsion could be the greatest thing she has going for her. It could just be the story wherein a UTR girl wins the game because two friends/allies were from the tribe with fewer numbers on the jury. If this is the first time that the 3rd person of the F3 with no strong allies wins, how else could you show it when she's up against two people who were close allies with each other from the beginning? By giving her a more meaningful edit and one that fits with the season's themes - as Bob's did.
fat little fingers		#4555	[-]
Posts: 6172 (05/09/09 9:38 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hey AMAI, great to see you post. As for whether the winner can be pinned by the merge or not, of course he/she can. If the season is edited, the winner's story is there. Edgic is as simple as that. The question is always: Can we can find and correctly interpret the clues?
fat little fingers		#4556	[-]
Posts: 6173 (05/09/09 9:40 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If you catch anything bigger than your arm, I expect pictures!
TheEasyOne		#4557	[-]
Posts: 1620 (05/09/09 9:57 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	unduli clone wrote: The two things that scare me the most about Stephen are his EP01 edit and the pre-merge tribal edits. We've seen how important premieres can be - even Bob had a great one. Stephen's was lackluster and was really inconsequential to him as an individual. His pre-commercial break (uncredited) confessional pinpointed Sandy as the crazy lady, and his later one built up JT and his premiere edit. Yes, we got to know Stephen a little bit (the New Yorker) but if you compare the episode to past winners' premieres, it falls short. Likewise, Timbira had all the pre-merge goodies. I know that complex tribe theory is rather dead in the water at this point, but look at last year, where we clusterfucked onto Kenny and Matty post-merge, regardless of how bizarrely Fang was edited, and how well Kota was edited (even if it didn't seem "complex"). This season, even when Jalapao went to TC it was a dud. The episodes were filled with Timbira and what they would do next, constantly giving us potential boot targets even though they didn't go to TC after EP03. This could be interpreted to mean that the winner comes out of Timbira, or it could be a throwback to S9. Lopevi was more positive than Yasur but dull, while Yasur was complex and slightly negative. Yasur's complexity was chalked down to the jury being made up of five Yasur's, and odds are we'll have a jury made up of at least five Timbira's this time around. There is a difference, though - NuLopevi (the tribe that best compares to Jalapao) only went to TC once, while Jalapao went four times. Take it how you will. If Erinn were to win, it would be new for a winner - she's had no real alliance the entire time, though this past episode it seems as though she's more closely aligned with JT/Stephen than we expected. We've never had a winner who was such a floater, so maybe she'd be edited strangely. She's also a woman. I still think Stephen is the winner, but based on premieres (Erinn's was actually pretty good) and tribal edits, I wouldn't be too surprised if Erinn sneaked in there. I guess she would be my #2 at this point. erinn has no way of winning because a lot of people on her tribe hated her. debbie has in her inteview said no one liked erin. the only possible way to win would be against coach, but jt/taj/stephen won't make that happen. she can't win against stephen or jt or taj Erinn vs. JT (jt wins unanimously) Erinn vs. Stephen (stephen wins unanimously) Erinn vs. Taj: erinn- sierra (?) taj- JT, stephen, tyson, debbie, brendan (?), coach (?) but either way taj has 4 secure votes as much as i'd like her to win, it'd be like wishing santa was real. not gonna happen
pushingjate		#4558	[-]
Posts: 2895 (05/10/09 1:27 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	erinn has no way of winning because a lot of people on her tribe hated her. debbie has in her inteview said no one liked erin. the only possible way to win would be against coach, but jt/taj/stephen won't make that happen. she can't win against stephen or jt or taj Erinn vs. JT (jt wins unanimously) Erinn vs. Stephen (stephen wins unanimously) Erinn vs. Taj: erinn- sierra (?) taj- JT, stephen, tyson, debbie, brendan (?), coach (?) but either way taj has 4 secure votes as much as i'd like her to win, it'd be like wishing santa was real. not gonna happen People have also said it's not a bitter jury, so they could put away their dislike for Erinn for gaming purposes. I think it will come down to how the F2 present themselves. Erinn is moreso an underdog than Jalapao, so they'd have to give her credit for making it to the end. Another thing is that the Timbira jury members can easily say they want a Timbira win, so Erinn gets the vote. Debbie has said in several interviews how upset she was that Timbira didn't get pulled back together, because she liked the tribe a lot. I think if it comes down to JT/Erinn, Erin has an advantage. Stephen is better spoken, so he would have the upper hand.
craig		#4559	[-]
Posts: 15627 (05/10/09 1:40 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Stephen's episode 1, especially in comparison to those around him, just doesn't stack up with previous winners. Stephen has been in my Top 3 every epsiode from the get-go. Like Erinn, Stephen has the real good early bits. And like her and almost everyone ep.I (except for Coach, those voted off the hike, and the first boot), he is Vis 2. My take - the editors knew we'd be overdosing on Stephen from ep.4 on (4 TC appeareances premerge, part of EA, part of dominant pair running show postmerge). She they didn't feel the need to shove him down our throats ep.1. Same deal with Brian S5 who also went to TC ep.1
craig		#4560	[-]
Posts: 15628 (05/10/09 2:04 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	There has been no talk of JT or Stephen turning on each other.......why? Maybe, because it doesn't happen............. There still should be some doubt being thrown into the edit - heck, even Romber got some doubt in ASS. The following Insider clip would have been a great way to show doubt. It was also relevant to explaining why why Stephen didn't take Debbie's deal. The final promise that is concerning me is Debbie's promise to go with me and JT to the final three and bow out. She swore to God that she would do this. It's a very lucrative offer, a lock for sure on the final two. On the one hand, it's bad for me because maybe I don't want to be in the final two with JT... The editors foreshadow Stephen turning on JT early on, with the trust theme and snake imagery when Stephen and JT were talking premerge. But at this point in the game, we're supposed to think that JT\Stephen is an unbreakable unstoppable force.

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