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So, first thing's first - the recap shows they were obviously playing it like Stephen brought up the whole Tyson blindside, which is another point in Stephen's favor in this episode (also - way less likely to go out at F3, now that The Ultimate Goat is out of the game). I still think Erinn defiantly meant Tyson in the reality of the situation, as the sentence still doesn't make sense otherwise, but who cares about the reality of the situation?

Why I don't see a Stephen\JT F2

Basically, because of episode 9. JT was so overwhelmingly positive, it was like they were making a JT infomercial (Such a great guy! Get three!).

If you combine it with episode 8, JT has gotten positive feedback from Coach, Tyson, Brendan, Sierra, Taj and Erinn (when you are talking to one person, saying "I like you guys", it means you like that person).

It was un-missable, completely superfluous and way too much in my book.

While he is being fleshed out into an interesting little character (it might be the accent indeed), when they hit the hammer that hard it usually serves a point.

The point I personally think they are trying to make is justifying Stephen's betrayal of JT. The queues and hints are there, but I don't think the casual viewer pays them much heed, so they're pretty useless as doubt to a Stephen\JT F2. We don't get to actually see them maneuvering against each other, accept for the one time when JT found Taj's idol, and that both bening and all about Stephen. I strongly suspect Stephen's like that all the time. Might just be me, but dude seems a bit edgy.

And in the same episode that sealed the deal for me, JT-wise, "JT and Stephen" decided to send home the guy who wanted to take JT to the finals and LET HIM WIN, and we never got any reasoning from them. Stephen going "Brendan wants JT in the finals, and that's a major problem for me, and I'm trying to convince JT to vote for him" with the suspense being over who influences whom more - JT or Stephen, that would have been some doubt for a JT\Stephen F2. I would have even settled for JT going "I just don't trust Brendan, maybe he's lying to me" for at least some kind of explanation.

But getting this super-P edit in an episode in which you also vote out the guy who wants to take you to the finals and LET YOU WIN, and you don't get to explain anything at all? That's a problem. And weird.

Plus - this season is about not trusting, momentum and blindsides. A JT\Stephen F2 doesn't fit for me.

Why I wouldn't like a Stephen\JT F2

I'm actually warming up to it, and to JT as a character.

But basically, I wouldn't like it because Stephen has been sold to us as a shrewd super-game-involved, kind of paranoid strategic player who knows JT is a major threat, very well liked, and would probably win against him.

The story doesn't fit in my head if Stephen allows JT into the finals, and I like it when the story fits in my head.

I would like to see them both openly maneuvering against each other if that was to be the case. Not with hints and stuff, actually mentioning where their interests part ways and trying to pull over control to their court. Then maybe.

Plus, I tend not to like the alpha male characters.

Why I still think Erinn might win

This was by no means a good episode for her, mostly because it was a very strong episode for Stephen, but also because she was severely lacking from important parts that could and should have been mentioned. Her talk with Sierra from the insider, for example, was… well… great gameplay, for one thing. Make friends with the bitter chick going home. Why not?

But the reason I still think she's a contender is… Well, what do you do if the major, most compelling story of the season doesn't actually contain the winner? What if the winner was a girl (yes, it matters) who did practically nothing pre-merge and went on to win due to a semi-bitter jury and one or two big moves near the end? Oh, and she had no alliance for like, forever, and doesn't have a very big emotional relationship with anyone at all.

Basically, I think you might get Erinn. Most people watch survivor for relationships and characters over strategy, and Erinn has been all-game, at least recently, so you set her up as a surprise, unexpected, yet kind-of-justified winner. You're not telling HER story, because her story isn't the season's story, but you make sure the viewer knows every step in her journey (She just went through a break up! We… know that about her for some reason!), and you have her relate closely to the theme of the season - maybe even express it verbally in her tribe's first TC.

The fact that we even know about her alliance with Joe is also kind of weird, as absolutely nothing came of it, not even in the way of doubt for a vote like the exile alliance was used (then again she didn't get to comment on his leaving so it might add up to a null sum).

I think Stephen\JT are what this season is about, right up until the finale. They are the main story. But if anyone wins but Stephen, I think it's Erinn. She is going to, at some point, to make at least one or two big moves (she said so herself!), and we are running out of time. Making a big move close to the end leaves a bigger impression in the casual viewer's mind than the entire pre-merge combined, so maybe Erinn's win doesn't need that much justification for the casual viewer.

Also - I think Edgic doesn't have the tools to accurately represent low-visibility note-worthy complex edits (such as Erinn's episode 2 bizzaro edit. You can't give the same rating to the girl who gave a speech about the season's theme and the girl who commented about eating bugs), and that's not Erinn's fault.

Still putting my metaphorical money on Stephen.

Found interesting:

Probst mentioning paranoia setting in, on the heels of Stephen having one of what I assume are many many mini-nervous-breakdowns. He just looks like he's thinking too much for his own good. Foreshadowing some doubt? The reason he loses? Something Probst always says?

Erinn survived in the wild. "I'm just a hairdresser what am I doing here" no more!

For being such a massive immunity threat, JT is neither winning challenges nor being targeted by anyone. I have no idea what this means, which is no surprise since I have no read on JT's edit what-so-ever. My read on other edits is… well… wrong a lot, but at least it's there, which is comforting. I have no idea if he goes on a run or gets super strategic all of the sudden.

Crazy baseless speculating for fun

What if Erinn wins F3 immunity, knows she can't win against Stephen OR JT and gives immunity to Stephen knowing he has to take her, hoping it might lose him a vote or two? That would be a big move. Then she would fly away to fight crime.

Observation

80% of spoiler people coming in to edgic-bash sound like idiots. Maybe for the sole reason that they CARE so much, yet try to seem like they don't.