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Erinn got lucky with Jerry's illness, but by episode 5 she was going to be okay; Tyson wanted Brendan out by then. She stayed below the radar, which is what she needed to do after becoming a high profile boot target. Unlike Sierra, she realized Coach was a joke and didn't sass him again after that TC except in private interview. After the merge, I was impressed by her using Joe to get in good with JT. JT says if she stays loyal, she'll be in the final 4.

Sierra, Debbie, and Coach are all too flaky, and none are particularly fond of Erinn. Her best bet is to stick with Pao and get close to Taj. Then she needs to take out either Stephen or JT using Taj and a Timbira member. There's not too much room for her, she shouldn't be making too many bold moves at this point. She needs to hibernate and then make a move; Taj is the key.

Unfortunately, Taj seems very wrapped up in Pao, and under Stephen's spell. I hope she can see that JT/Stephen are a tight duo, otherwise its going to be a boring endgame.

Given all this blindside talk, and Jeff's hint that Stephen/JT shouldn't get too cocky leads me to believe that they will get overthrown at some point. Since F5 is the prime opporunity, and JT is shown to make the final 4, I'm thinking Stephen gets blindsided at final 5. But there's also the issue of the idol; he can't be blindsided at 5 if he still has the idol, since he'll just play it.

Or if Stephen idols someone out at final 5, and makes the final 4 with JT/Taj/4th person, the 4th person and Taj could force a tie against Stephen, and he loses the firebreaker. Its been shown on numerous occasions that Stephen cannot make fire. The city kid who struggles in the wild, who couldn't make a fire. He made one on exile after a long struggle. Very reminiscent of Cirie, who was afraid of leaves, who finally caught her first fish, and who finally made fire (only to lose the firebreaker the same episode). I really think its a strong possibility that Stephen loses the game in a firebreaker.

Leaving JT, Taj, and one other person as the final 3.

urrout wrote:

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chapera rocks wrote:

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Or if Stephen idols someone out at final 5, and makes the final 4 with JT/Taj/4th person, the 4th person and Taj could force a tie against Stephen, and he loses the firebreaker.

Taj thinks she has a F2 deal with Stephen so unless the other one left at F4 is a better bet to beat JT in the F3 IC, she will not boot Stephen, imo. I would think Taj is safe at F4 with both JT and Stephen anyway.

Unless the 4th person has immunity.

Like I said, Taj is under Stephen's spell, but I hope she'll in the end be able to see through it. She's a key player and if she continues to believe Stephen and ignore the blatant Stephen/JT bond, it'll be a boring end game.

The same argument could be made that Stephen's major moves are being downplayed and given to J.T. Time will tell if J.T. becomes a goat, but Stephen has been a big player and they've given most credit to J.T.

Stephen also has a couple of scenes that are typical for a loser. His edit is analogous to Cirie ... both were out of their element, both were shown catching their first fish, both were shown struggling with fire, and both were shown overcoming it.

Inability to make fire is NEVER good in this game. Stephen had trouble with it twice now.

The question is whether the CBS.com recraps are important .. I doubt it. Now if the recap shown before the next episode gives Stephen all the credit, he's looking better as a winner. But right now his edit has holes to me, and he's eclipsed by JT, as well as having a Cirie-esque story arc.