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fat little fingers |
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flf is a riot.
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Phoenix1269 |
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fat little fingers wrote:
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Phoenix1269 |
EPISODE 7 MERGE - Episode Ratings & Close Calls | ||
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Overall Rankings OTT?4 - Ben Wade MOR3 - Brendan Synnott UTR1 - Debbie Beebee MOR2 - Erinn Lobdell MORP2 - Joe Dowdle CPP5 - JT Thomas UTR?1 - Sierra Reed CP4 - Stephen Fishbach MOR3 - Taj Johnson-George OTTN4 - Tyson Apostol Episode Rating Averages From most to least INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5 4.71 - Ben Wade 4.33 - Tyson Apostol 3.90 - Brendan Synnott 3.81 - Taj Johnson-George 3.50 - Joe Dowdle 3.33 - Erinn Lobdell 3.00 - JT Thomas 3.00 - Stephen Fishbach 1.95 - Debbie Beebee 1.95 - Sierra Reed Episode Tone Averages From most positive to least positive NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2 0.667 - JT Thomas 0.550 - Joe Dowdle 0.333 - Taj Johnson-George 0.143 - Debbie Beebee 0.048 - Erinn Lobdell 0.000 - Stephen Fishbach -0.238 - Brendan Synnott -0.476 - Ben Wade -0.476 - Sierra Reed -0.857 - Tyson Apostol Episode Visibility Averages From most to least 5.00 - JT Thomas 4.29 - Tyson Apostol 4.19 - Ben Wade 4.00 - Stephen Fishbach 2.95 - Taj Johnson-George 2.76 - Brendan Synnott 2.15 - Joe Dowdle 1.95 - Erinn Lobdell 1.10 - Sierra Reed 1.05 - Debbie Beebee Close Calls Rating There are no Close Calls for Rating this week Tone Ben Wade NN (0%), N (47.6%), Mixed (52.4%), P (0%), PP (0%)(note: 11 out of 11 neutral votes were for dynamic) Sierra Reed NN (0%), N (47.6%), Static Neutral (52.4%), P (0%), PP (0%)(note: 0 out of 11 neutral votes were for dynamic) Visibility There are no Close Calls for Visibility this week |
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Phoenix1269 |
MOR Differential & RTV Season Averages (E7 Merge) | ||
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MOR differential
Sum difference from middle of road for total season 2.76 - Debbie Beebee 2.45 - Ben Wade 1.96 - Carolina Eastwood 1.73 - Sydney Wheeler 1.60 - JT Thomas 1.39 - Tyson Apostol 1.33 - Taj Johnson-George 1.26 - Sierra Reed 1.11 - Jerry Sims 1.00 - Candace Smith 0.83 - Spencer Duhm 0.79 - Erinn Lobdell 0.71 - Joe Dowdle 0.62 - Brendan Synnott 0.46 - Sandy Burgin 0.41 - Stephen Fishbach Current midpoint: 1.17 Sierra & Taj are closest of remaing players) Current midrange value: 1.38 Tyson is closest at 0.01 above, Taj is next at .05 below middle position (between 8 & 9th ranking): Sierra/Jerry Breakdowns Season Rating Averages From most to least (INV=1, UTR=2, CP=3, MOR=4, OTT=5) 4.11 - Ben Wade 3.74 - Tyson Apostol 3.73 - JT Thomas 3.41 - Sandy Burgin 3.41 - Brendan Synnott 3.31 - Taj Johnson-George 3.26 - Jerry Sims 3.21 - Stephen Fishbach 3.12 - Carolina Eastwood 3.03 - Erinn Lobdell 2.94 - Spencer Duhm 2.86 - Joe Dowdle 2.60 - Sierra Reed 2.51 - Sydney Wheeler 2.46 - Candace Smith 1.95 - Debbie Beebee Season Tone Averages From most positive to least positive (NN=-2, N=-1, neutral=0, P=1, PP=2) 0.486 - JT Thomas 0.463 - Jerry Sims 0.312 - Taj Johnson-George 0.146 - Stephen Fishbach 0.135 - Debbie Beebee 0.134 - Sierra Reed 0.123 - Brendan Synnott 0.100 - Spencer Duhm 0.086 - Joe Dowdle 0.051 - Erinn Lobdell 0.040 - Sandy Burgin -0.055 - Sydney Wheeler -0.340 - Tyson Apostol -0.385 - Carolina Eastwood -0.391 - Candace Smith -0.917 - Ben Wade Season Visibility Averages From most to least 4.46 - Carolina Eastwood 3.71 - Taj Johnson-George 3.43 - Ben Wade 3.39 - JT Thomas 3.06 - Stephen Fishbach 2.99 - Sandy Burgin 2.93 - Candace Smith 2.92 - Brendan Synnott 2.68 - Tyson Apostol 2.61 - Jerry Sims 2.52 - Joe Dowdle 2.33 - Spencer Duhm 2.29 - Erinn Lobdell 2.27 - Sierra Reed 1.82 - Sydney Wheeler 1.43 - Debbie Beebee |
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Phoenix1269 |
Winners & Losers (Episode 7) | ||
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Edgic Losers
Percentage of possible loser votes 100.00% - Ben Wade 70.59% - Debbie Beebee 70.59% - Tyson Apostol 58.82% - Taj Johnson-George 41.18% - Sierra Reed 29.41% - Brendan Synnott 5.88% - Erinn Lobdell 5.88% - JT Thomas 0.00% - Stephen Fishbach Edgic Winners Percentage of winner votes received 64.71% - Stephen Fishbach 23.53% - Brendan Synnott 11.76% - JT Thomas 0.00% - Ben Wade 0.00% - Debbie Beebee 0.00% - Erinn Lobdell 0.00% - Sierra Reed 0.00% - Taj Johnson-George 0.00% - Tyson Apostol |
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Phoenix1269 |
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looking at the MOR Differential, i was struck by how LOW Stephen's is at this point... It's lower than any winner's final MORDiff ever.
Anyway... it reminded me of something from last year... so for fun, take a look at Stephen and Marcus' rating to date:
I mis abled that... is should read E8 (Gabon premerge last minute swap)... I just thought it was weird... feel free to discuss or not. g'nite. |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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I just realized that I didn't vote properly for Sierra. I have her as UTRN actually, because of all the negative SPV and the fact that people thought she
was really in the wrong with her strategy talk at the feast.
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craig |
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So did a bunch of Sierra supporters switch to Brendan?
Or is him #2 purely an artifact of allowing only one winner pick this week for the first time? |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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It's the single winner vote, I think, because I know almost everyone had Stephen in their top two, but first place wasn't always Stephen, sometimes
going to Sierra, Erinn, JT or Brendan.
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taks |
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Wow, I just realized I have no idea if I voted or not. I've been so busy I think I'm losing my mind a little...
On the close calls: For the first time ever, I'd hit Coach with a neutral tone. Yeah, he was crazy OTT in some scenes but he wasn't edited as negative. His ridiculous meditation scene shows him as OTT but he gets positive feedback from Erinn. He tells JT that he's going to be completely honest with him (and is). He seems genuinely upset that Brendan has lied to him (which Brendan has) and uses that as a reason to vote him off. I just don't see Coach as all that negative. Sierra, however, I'd throw an N too. She got one scene and was made out to be a complete idiot. I'm pretty sure there was some sort of odd sound effect played along with reaction shots from 3/4 different people. Her comment was just not well thought out at all. Tyson also gave her some N SPV, which I wouldn't normally consider as "N" by itself, but certainly doesn't help her case. I'm pretty sure she was called out by Taj/Stephen for not initiating anything with the Exile Alliance which is just another reason to look at Sierra as less-than-smart. Oh gosh, and I just remembered JT's comment that Sierra's hut was awful. Yeah, Sierra was not looking good this episode. And if I had voted (which I think I actually did, now that I'm recalling things a little better...) I'd go with JT for the win. I'm nowhere near positive, but that's what my gut tells me and my brain can't thing of a good reason to argue with it. (by the way, who are the 30% who think Debbie still has a shot at this thing?) ETA: Triple digit post count! Edit2: Oh wow, Joe got a "P"? That's surprising, I felt like it was the least positive medevac ever. Granted, I ended up giving no "P"s this episode, so maybe I was just in a negative mood.
Last Edited By: taks
04/13/09 11:10 PM.
Edited 2 times.
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cantthinkofaname |
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I was afraid of that Phoenix. I heard someone else compare Brendan to Marcus. I still think he's the best pick, but of course best pick doesn't
necessarily mean winner. Still holding onto JT (edit kinda like Tom) and to a lesser extent Sierra (sorta like Parvati). Also Brendan because he's a god
contender apart from his weak episode 1. Kinda like Cirie in FVF only the negativity is coming in at a later time than her's. He's still hanging by a
thread with me. Actually I'd say Taj is closer to Cirie. They both have that weaker ep 1, followed by strong 2 and 3, but then Taj maintains a higher
visibility after ep3 just like Cirie, Brendan doesn't
Gabon has made me more reluctant to eliminate people so I've only eliminated Debbie and Coach of the remaining 9. Just thought I'd let you all see my thoughts, it's been a while. Just letting you know I'm not losing it or anything. A few of my comments above are like "duh" type things I'm guessing. So I'm just posting less often cuz I haven't had the time to really put together more well-constructed thoughts to post here. That's all. |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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Yeah, I'd go with dynamic neutral for Coach too, because the opening scene was VERY positive for people actually thinking he was a nice guy. And he
wasn't really THAT negative for the rest of the episode, like Tyson was.
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ncassaro |
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I think any possible comparison to Parvati for Sierra is finished, because Parvati had relatively solid last pre-merge and merge episodes that set up her
end-game plan. Sierra being UTR for a while was an advantage, but has become bad. Meanwhile, I think Brendan with his CPness and weak episode 1 and merge
episode is very Cirie.
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AndreSurvivor |
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Phoenix1269 wrote: That is an interesting observation. However, Stephen's edit seems to be growing whereas Marcus was always on the same plane. It's all about the subtleties that ratings can't show: In the first episode, he gets a pre-credit confessional and SPV by Sandy that he will be easily led around. That seems to be coming into play right now, at the merge, with Timbira members all falling over themselves about how Stephen "appears" to nice, etc. Taj made the same observations in choosing him as her ally. Meanwhile, his confessionals show he is thoughtful and cautious. This isn't an edit being built up to a betrayal or downfall. JT, meanwhile, is played up as a fighter. He could make it to the end, but he has the occasional quote that really rubs me the wrong way. When he commented on Taj's husband and her life, saying he needs the money more than her, it was in stark contrast to Stephen. He needs to win, win, win... However, he has a dark side to him, which showed itself with Spencer's boot. In the past episode: " I'm really hard on myself when I lose. I hate losing. I'm a sore loser. ... That's why I'm kinda hoping it's a challenge and not a merge. I don't think I'm ready yet." Not ready. Sore loser. His bonds with Tyson and Coach, and Coach asking him not to stab him in the back, may result in bitter jury questions if he turns around on them next episode. Much like Sugar, they built up a very P personality that overplays in the final stretch and people sour to it. In the premiere, there is a curious scene with Stephen where his pants split during the walk, and he makes a self-deprecating comment. This jump starts him introducing his relationship with JT. That opening episode was packed with twists and characters....and his pants splitting was important enough to include. Why? They had footage of Taj talking more, and JT giving winner quotes, as seen in the clip show. In that one segment, he is introduced as a city boy, questioning JT, and not totally one with nature. He has shown positive development since then, and here's hoping it doesn't culminate with a Cirie-type ending. The tandem editing of Stephen and JT leads me to believe they are both in the finals. Their relationship was been building since Day 1, on that hike, and it was been building consistently since, even in Episode 2 when they didn't hit tribal council. Now they've merged and are going strong. Am i wrong? Long-winded? Possibly yes. |
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scepticA |
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The Cirie comparison isn't fair to either of them. Cirie's edit was one of enormous personal growth - my gosh, she was afraid of leaves! but she grew
and grew. It was one of the finest non-winner edits in the show's history. Stephen's whole "am I gonna be OK with a good ol' boy"
questions was answered in the second episode. he remains worried and somewhat self-deprecating.
The arc of Cirie's edit was one of the strongest full-season story arcs ever. It's too soon to write Stephen's full arc, but whatever it is it will be different than Cirie's. I am greatly enjoying the discussion of JT's chances. I'm swinging from "by gosh, you're right - JT has the better edit" to "by gosh, JT's edit has holes in it..." To me that shows the editors were on their game with this guy. My pick is still Stephen, but if JT wins a) I'll be delighted - his is a fine edit and story and a good character, b) I will have not picked the winner (yawn), and c) edgic worked - but I didn't... heh. |
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ncassaro |
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I meant Micronesia Cirie, and I was comparing her edit to Brendan.
If it was me you were responding to... btw, sorry for starting that disaster a couple pages ago. My bad... |
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Sploch |
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I think the Stephen/Marcus only exists in edgic-world. There is a nuanced difference to their edits.
While Marcus got CP and MORs, he was over-exposed, in a pronounced leadership role, and declared the winner (or favorite) by everyone on this board, everyone on the show, and expected to win by all the fans. Stephen, I think, is relatively hidden. I know this counts as purely qualitative, but I have friends who watch who still only know Stephen as 'JTs Friend'. His ratings stack up well, but he hasn't been over-exposed as a character. And, from a few pages ago-- The kicker for me, the reason I think JT gets blind-sided in the next few episodes (Final 5 at the latest) is because of the editing discrepancy between how he thinks Stephen, and how Stephen thinks of JT. JT likes Stephen. He "trusts him 100%". Stephen has been shown, at every single stage of the game, to be using JT (and I use the word 'using' in the least negative form possible) "JT is going to advance ME in the game" "JT is going to teach ME how to survive in the wild" "If JT goes out, it would be terrible for ME" Could Stephen like JT personally? Sure. Have we been explicitly told this? No. (well, maybe we have...) Add to that, Stephen lied to JT about the exile alliance (of course, I think the whole 'Taj hiding the idol in the most obvious place in the world' fiasco had to be shown on television to tell how Taj/JT/Stephen ended up in such a solid alliance. not much foreshadowing there.) Both of their edits are about the game-play, but Stephen is about himself and JT is about the team. Could JT win? Of course. But if it ends him vs. Stephen, I would expect there to be more from Stephen about 'the two of us' and how to save JT rather than his own ass: "JT being voted out sucks. He's part of original Jalapao. We're friends" rather than "JT being voted out hurts MY game". Maybe this develops over the next few episodes, or maybe Stephen's confessionals are just very self-referential and can't be edited otherwise but the discrepency between their two edits, foreshadowed from day one, combined with Stephen having alliances he has, in the show, kept secret from JT, screams that they'll be at odds at some point. Because we've been shown no indication that JT would ever turn on Stephen, I have to assume that Stephen is going to turn on JT. His story-arc is that he's the city-boy who knew nothing about nature and he rode JTs coat-tails until he was in a position to cut him loose. JT, with all his 'honesty' talk, is being set up as one of the biggest martyrs in Survivor history, slated to win the fan favorites and return at all-stars to much avail. And, non-edgically (because there's no edgic-based-reasoning to back this up), I can't see Stephen keeping JT around very deep in the game. He knows he'll never win a jury vote against him. The only way it's Stephen/JT in the final 2 is if JT goes on an immunity run. If Stephen does stab JT in the back, I can see a scenario where Sierra still wins. She earns Coach and Tyson's jury vote, and finally redeems herself. She's still my number 2. I can't see Brendan winning because of his lack of tone. No one cares about Brendan. The last episode was terrible for him. If he was the winner, he'd have been edited as being a martyr, not being clueless as to the talk of his demise. We were meant to feel no sympathy for Brendan, enforced by Taj and Stephen (with JT, the heroes) claiming that it was his fault that the exile alliance whimpered out. Winner 1. Stephen Tiny Gap 2. Sierra (very manipulated scene at feast) Big Gap 3. Erinn Eliminated Tyson (Erinn has to out-last him) JT (i might be here eating crow in a month or so) Brendan (tone deaf) Taj (bad first episode, her storyline has been replaced by JT/Stephen's) Coach (way too OTT) Debbie |
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getting real |
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FLF said:
The Merge feast scene was her worst moment. Except, if Sierra's aim was to throw everyone else off the scent of the Super-Secret-Exile Alliance, that is exactly the kind of question she should have asked. That is the reality. Of course, whatever the reality of her motives, the editing crucified her and her chances of winning. Despite the heavy manipulation of the scene, as pointed out by Sploch. |
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Trixiego |
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panurge46 wrote:Oh. I saw you solidly pick Erinn as your winner with Sierra thrown in there as her possible final two - maybe I read you wrong but I saw you picking out the flaws with everyone else :shrug |
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Warrior |
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