S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins - Survivor Speculation - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks - Message Board

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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9RedWing19		#2721	[-]
Posts: 2506 (04/06/09 7:37 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: I don't think Erinn is getting a positive edit, I think she's getting an Eliza edit, annoying and on the outs and opposition to some pretty nasty players. Erinn may be positioned like Eliza. But Eliza started with 3 N episodes, while Twila's negativity was saved for later. Erinn has been fairly Neu, but her enemies have been Neg. We don't know what N things Erinn did to be on the outs. We just sympathize with her as the underdog. If they showed fun-loving Debbie we'd probably like her more than Erinn. But Debbie has been UTR. Craig, I'll mention this again. You originated a thread at LTS that postulated that all winners are in the majority alliance pre-merge. That is not the case for Erinn. Hence, your support for Erinn is strictly based on her being this season's JennaM/Parvati type-character and is a case of "this is my winner pick - what can I find in the edit to support that pick" rather than "who is the most likely winner based on the edits we've seen for all 16 contestants".
fat little fingers		#2722	[-]
Posts: 5999 (04/06/09 8:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I do expect Brendan to be around for awhile, There have been signs of the Exile, Super-Duper Secret Alliance going deep into the season. This explains all the attention that's been given to the core-4's edits. Stephen and Sierra got the strongest ep1 edits of the four. Sierra was the one who's insight had to be shown. Her early success was a big part of the early story. Brendan follows with his comments about not trusting Coach. (ie., barely there, but it was a game comment!) Then Taj with the comment about losing "baby weight". (ie., no real ep1 development at all.) Then we have the other possible alliance members: Erinn and JT have also been developed as at-least mid-level characters. Erinn has lacked game comments (except for ep1's "What am I doing out here?"), until her rub-up with Smokin' Joe. Talk about doubt! :)P JT had a solid Ep1 intro. Is he getting good development because of Stephen or Stephen because of JT? All I know about Erinn is, she's targeted by Coach and Tyson and has no allies other than Genius Joe. But, all the others are getting good development of some sort because the alliance is successful after the merge. Doesn't mean they all out last the others, but most are probably there for the end-game.
ncassaro		#2723	[-]
Posts: 917 (04/06/09 9:34 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I love how Chapera Rocks basically had Amber's edit
RageBot		#2724	[-]
Posts: 269 (04/06/09 10:04 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Man, i'm so dumb
donutsrule		#2725	[-]
Posts: 333 (04/06/09 11:22 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	fat little fingers wrote: All I know about Erinn is, she's targeted by Coach and Tyson Didn't Tyson tell Coach that Erinn would be good for votes and he wanted to keep her and Coach was all "no, no, no"? Or was that just in the recap (and it's totally possible that I dreamt the whole thing, of course). Oh they could've been talking about Sierra as well. Does anyone remember?
Kathy Fan 2		#2726	[-]
Posts: 4888 (04/06/09 11:28 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't think Erinn's "if I can make the merge, it'll be interesting to see where it takes me" confessional should be overlooked. Seemed like a major clue to me. Maybe she's the last Timbira standing and goes 3rd or fourth? Or maybe she's one of the last and outlasts Debbie, Coach, Tyson, Brendan. Seems like something they included when they really didn't have to.
Trixiego		#2727	[-]
Posts: 16477 (04/06/09 11:47 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kathy Fan 2 wrote: I don't think Erinn's "if I can make the merge, it'll be interesting to see where it takes me" confessional should be overlooked. Seemed like a major clue to me. Maybe she's the last Timbira standing and goes 3rd or fourth? Or maybe she's one of the last and outlasts Debbie, Coach, Tyson, Brendan. Seems like something they included when they really didn't have to. Not being nit picky (well maybe I am ) but since you have her saying "where it takes me" some may look at that different than what she really said (even though I agree that was an interesting statement although not necessarily where it takes HER but maybe what happens because of her): "Every time you get a couple more days out here, it's that much closer to a merge - if I can make it that far; it'll be interesting to see how that plays out"
chapera rocks		#2728	[-]
Posts: 10654 (04/06/09 12:33 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: I love how Chapera Rocks basically had Amber's edit <3 Amber <3 making the finale </3 being UTR !
Phoenix1269		#2729	[-]
Posts: 564 (04/06/09 1:22 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Blake <3 i love how the stats person / the vis & charts person / the lord high overseer all got voted out in a row!!!
Oowatanite		#2730	[-]
Posts: 7249 (04/06/09 1:25 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BlakeB717 wrote: SEASON 4 It's Here! Sorry to those who I didn't cast (like it matters anyways) I just went with the Top 20 who came to mind. The boot order was randomized at random.org. I was bored! Any questions about storyline you can ask me. Erinn supporters got an extra oompf of N, just because. =D Hmmmmmmmm. With a F3 and a jury of seven, I must have won 7-0. Yay !!!!!!!
chaperone		#2731	[-]
Posts: 2638 (04/06/09 1:26 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	fat little fingers wrote: I do expect Brendan to be around for awhile, There have been signs of the Exile, Super-Duper Secret Alliance going deep into the season. This explains all the attention that's been given to the core-4's edits. Stephen and Sierra got the strongest ep1 edits of the four. Sierra was the one who's insight had to be shown. Her early success was a big part of the early story. Brendan follows with his comments about not trusting Coach. (ie., barely there, but it was a game comment!) Then Taj with the comment about losing "baby weight". (ie., no real ep1 development at all.) Then we have the other possible alliance members: Erinn and JT have also been developed as at-least mid-level characters. Erinn has lacked game comments (except for ep1's "What am I doing out here?"), until her rub-up with Smokin' Joe. Talk about doubt! :)P JT had a solid Ep1 intro. Is he getting good development because of Stephen or Stephen because of JT? All I know about Erinn is, she's targeted by Coach and Tyson and has no allies other than Genius Joe. But, all the others are getting good development of some sort because the alliance is successful after the merge. Doesn't mean they all out last the others, but most are probably there for the end-game. I think JT is in a great edgic spot and shouldn't be counted out. The onions fell away except one...the 5th...the peripheral member...and Bob, who had one OTT episode and a pretty poor winner's edit overall, won it all. JT, in contrast, has a good edit even if slightly OTT (someone said he was too OTT but I'm not sure I see it...early on I thought he was a little vanilla if anything) and is peripherally/plausibly tied into the only alliance that's on any viewers' radar. The cross tribe alliance IS the complex tribe, everyone else is gravy on the story.
wallduck		#2732	[-]
Posts: 517 (04/06/09 1:31 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Brendan MOR2: too much narrating, plus he sure looks like the favorite to win ... so he's not winning Coach OTTN2 Debbie UTR1 Erinn UTR2 Joe OTT5: excess visibility suggests he goes next JT OTTP5: I don't get the recent support for JT. He is still in 1-dimensional good-ol-boy mode. Thursday's editing, though P, was not flattering, portraying him as basically clueless and in over his head. Winners are not clueless. Sierra UTR1: see below Stephen CP4: winner Sydney MOR3 Taj CP4 Tyson UTR1 Sierra: Obviously it was not a good episode for Sierra. One bad episode isn't curtains, but it's time to ask the fundamental question about her edit: how meaningful is it? Answer: not very. Meaningfulness is the most important edgic principle, and it involves more than manipulation: meaningful editing creates a character. Here we are at the merge, and what do we really know, or care, about Sierra? Almost nothing: not much more than a boilerplate underdog story. Winner: Don't overthink it (flf, this means you). It's Stephen.
Oowatanite		#2733	[-]
Posts: 7250 (04/06/09 1:32 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chaperone wrote: The cross tribe alliance IS the complex tribe, everyone else is gravy on the story. See, posts like this is why I blindsided you just before the jury stage.
Warrior		#2734	[-]
Posts: 2859 (04/06/09 1:43 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	wallduck wrote: Winner: Don't overthink it (flf, this means you). It's Stephen.
fat little fingers		#2735	[-]
Posts: 6000 (04/06/09 1:53 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	................................................Episode 6 Show & Tell Jalapao JT CPP5 JT had two repeated themes this ep: Honesty and explaining the 5-5 or 6-4 merge situation. JT's stated honesty was contrasted with Taj and Stephen's plotting and maneuvering. But, once he was included in the Immunity Idol alliance, he joined them in enjoying plotting against everyone. JT declares his honesty in Jalapao's first scenes: "...I am a country boy /break/ and it's hard for me to be mean to people /break/ I've been honest with everyone /break/ here at Jalapao so far and I'm gonna do my best to stay that way. ...Hopefully, everyone's being honest with me." (Cut to Stephen looking over his shoulder.) After the RC loss, JT makes a heroic speech with noble music: "We definitely lost the reward today and it sucked. /break/ but /break/ I'm not gonna feel sorry for myself all day /break/ Well, I don't really care about the reward, it's a reward /break/ but /break/ if we lose the next immunity challenge /break/ we go down 6-4 in numbers /break/ so we just can't blow it. We need to win." After JT joins Taj and Stephen he tells us: "...Taj promised me the II... that's a big promise, you know. I hope she can keep it." Later JT decides he can trust his alliance members: (very cut and paste) "...Taj... /break/ took her a while to come around, but she was honest /break/ and /break/ Stephen's been /break/ very honest with me and I feel like I could trust Stephen all the way. /break/ I just hope /break/ I'm not wrong." At TC, JT again tells us that the numbers at the merge are important. Honest hero winner? Naive, gullible, stabbed in the back loser? Oh, Joe! MORN5 At Exile Island: "It just couldn't be any better right now..." On finding the fake idol, while Taj and Stephen laugh at him: "Erinn gave me the scroll with five clues on it. I mean, it was real easy. I walked up and got the idol in literally 10 seconds." Oh, Joe. Be brave dude. Come out of your bedroom and face the world after that ep. Not everybody watches Survivor. Stephen CP4 Stephen continues to maneuver in complex confessionals and conversations. He seems very overexposed in the edit, but basically, the merge has started with these scenes. Timbira was still wrapped up in silly Timbira distractions (except Brendan....and yeah, yeah, Erinn.) While Jalapao is busy talkng about the win. (Including Joe ....Erinn's big alliance chance.) Sydney UTR2 k by. Taj CP4 This is I think the third time Taj has specifically talked about her alliances getting her to the merge. I think this time it buries her chances to win. I still wonder if she's destined to win a car. (Are they still giving cars? Maybe a KIA.) Timbira.... Coach OTTN2 "I certainly won't be making my beans in a seperate pot! I can't believe this is going on over such a trivial subject!" Yeah, I mean who needs to eat, anyway? Brendan CP2 I've already posted my take on the Bean Scene. It starts and ends with Brendan's insights. In fact it was an illustration of his point of view that Coach is predictably "Coach" and "predictable in this game is great!" Not counting Erinn, (Did we supposed to believe she was there?), Brendan is the only person in Timbira camp that was thinking about the game and not caught up in the moment. A winner moment or a Colby moment? Debra UTR1 I like Deb. Erinn CP2 Try as I might, I can't count Erinn out. She's always a pretty good observer and has had the role of Speaker of Wisdom at TCs. She's on the outs and is made to look like the whipped puppy by Coach and Tyson. Joe is a really lame ally, but she doesn't join him in simple conclusions: "...the idol...it's back at camp...if it's back at camp... do I trust Joe?" She simply hangs onto the hopeful possibility, "...'cause I have no alliances out here." Can't write Erinn off yet. Sierra UTR1 For the same reason I've elevated Brendan, I've demoted Sierra. She was the prime illustration of how not to lose control of your emotions and get caught up in the interpersonal. Players who focus on the immediate and lose sight of the game and win are losers. Have we ever had a winner who was shown like this in a scene? Tyson UTR1 He smirks at Coach's taunting of Sierra. He's cocky and smart-ass at the RC. He makes food faces at the feast. He's our designated OTT guy. Winner Rankings Stephen Still at the top. Hasn't been shown to make a wrong move yet. Getting maybe too much spotlight, but everything he was in this ep was necessary for the story. Tremendous amount of character/story-building in his edit (as usual). Brendan A character who is set aside from a distraction scene should get all sorts of red flags. The Bean Scene was all for Brendan. Why? Is he still just a decoy winner or the real deal? Sierra UTR1 again and shown as losing focus on the game. Whether I pick her as my winner or not, I don't think she's going away for a long time. JT This ep JT was shown to be an honest hero who decides that he trusts his alliance partners and trusts Stephen "all the way". He could still turn into the story of the honest hero who pulls it off, but it sounds more like the naive hero who will pay for his gullible trust. Erinn Like I said, I just can't count her out yet. She had an Ep1 opening confessional. She's got a tended, if very flat, story. She's not dumb. But, she needs to turn around her social game toot-sweet! Jeff said this is a social game and Erinn doesn't like her tribe. (There's that emotional thing again.) Out Joe Shmo Oh, Joe. Taj Stephen, "We're going to the merge? We're going to the end!" Coach Coach thinks Erinn is great..... to poop on!! Deb If I was stuck in bug-bit hell for 39 days, I'd like Deb along. Tyson OTTNs plus UTRs = loser. Last Edited By: fat little fingers 04/06/09 2:02 PM. Edited 2 times.
9RedWing19		#2736	[-]
Posts: 2507 (04/06/09 2:52 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Oowatanite wrote: Hmmmmmmmm. With a F3 and a jury of seven, I must have won 7-0. Yay !!!!!!! You think I voted for you ??? I demand a recount. Or at the very least, Probst to ask us at the reunion show how we would vote now.
craig		#2737	[-]
Posts: 15380 (04/06/09 2:59 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Craig, I'll mention this again. You originated a thread at LTS that postulated that all winners are in the majority alliance pre-merge. That is not the case for Erinn. Hence, your support for Erinn is strictly based on her being this season's JennaM/Parvati type-character That a point of Game Logic. Yes, if Timbira stuck together and did a pagonging, or if Erinn betrayed her tribe, she'd have No Chance. But as Kathy and Eliza showed, if someone else betrays your tribe (or gets blamed more than you), an outsider can move up in the pecking order and have a chance to win against a traitor. Erinn doesn't remind me of Jenna or Parv - they were great social players who got into the majority (what Sydney could have been if knew the Survivor game better or had more luck). If Erinn wins, her game will be more like Vee. Poor Sierra, so unattrative that none of her supporters get accused of rooting for her based on looks.
fat little fingers		#2738	[-]
Posts: 6001 (04/06/09 3:21 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	(what Sydney could have been if knew the Survivor game better or had more luck). Oh lord, craig! Lol.
craig		#2739	[-]
Posts: 15382 (04/06/09 3:44 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sydney had the social and phsyical skills to play a good game, but was too much of a raw recruit. She was in really good with Joe and Spencer, and they might have controlled the tribe if Stephen wasn't such a mastermind. Or imagine if Branden had selected Syd for his partner in exile, or there was no exile twist that benefitted Taj. Sydney got a great edit in the Recap, which shows what her main edit could have been if she'd been in a successful alliance. Some way, we can infer that Debbie the principal must be good player, but she gets edited as a silly blonde having fun when she isn't UTR.
fat little fingers		#2740	[-]
Posts: 6002 (04/06/09 4:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	but she gets edited as a silly blonde having fun when she isn't UTR. But, that's exactly why I'd want her around. Silly blond, having fun. (grin) As for Syd or Spence or Joe, (Oh, Joe.), coulda woulda shoulda. They could all be the winner if they and everybody else did something different. Well, somewhere in the quantum universes, Sydney is winning Survivor.

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