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 Lady V |
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Posts: 702 (03/06/09 8:14 PM) |
FallenTorch wrote: Yes--and someone wrote her name down that way, too. Still, she fits E better than M, but in that role confusion always lies an early exit... That's why I expect Branden should go before the end because he seems to be straddling F and S. |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 5906 (03/06/09 10:57 PM) Registered User |
Mothers need loyal children to ally with. Sandy didn't seem to have any
alliance. She was counting on just doing her Mom thing, but that's never enough.
Ep4 also showed how she was alienating everyone with her eccentricities. As Aaron said when voting out Leslie in China, "We don't need a mom." When that happens, you're expendable. |
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FallenTorch.fantasygamescen... |
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Posts: 57 (03/08/09 7:04 AM) |
Just a quick thought (which might not make an y sense)...what if the two families we should be looking at are not Jalapao and Timbira, but rather Timbira and
the Exile Island Alliance.
On Timbira then, you would have: Coach: Dysfunctional, Abusive Father Debra: Quiet supportive Mother Erinn: The outcasted daughter Tyson: The Crazy Son/E Perhaps their whole family is based on being dysfunctional? Exile Island Family: Taj: Mother Brendan: Father Sierra: Daughter Stephen: Son The Mother and the Father joined together to create the alliance, bringing in the son and the daughter. This would also explain the lack of development on Jalapao...where the only one with any considerable development not in the EI family is JT JT could be considered the father for his leadership and maturity, but last episode it was brought up that he and Joe both flirted with Sydney. If Sydney is a daughter would a father and a son (?) be shown fighting for her romantic interests? It seems like the next four(roughly) are form the group without much of a family edit- Spencer, Sydney, JT, Joe. Perhaps then the story might end up focusing on either the success of the perfect Exile Island Family or their downward spiral into conflict allowing someone from the crazy Timbira family to survive. |
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2310 (03/08/09 12:58 PM) Registered user |
I'm not convinced the editing is trying to make us see families, but yeah, that is definitely the interesting thing about the two-person exile (and the
mutiny). Folks have more possibilities to build a strong grouping, rather than being stuck with whoever you are superficially the most like the first day.
Brendan/Taj/Stephen/Sierra should be very functional. (Bad bad luck the rest of Jalapao didn't know about this twist before picking Brendan - imagine how
differently the game would be going if they had chosen Ben.)
I think you're right that whoever else gets to the merge will struggle to make a similarly strong counter-alliance rather than conflicting amongst themselves. If Debbie/Tyson/Erinn could swap out fathers for JT I think there could be a really interesting last part of the game. From watching the last episode, I didn't actually get competition for Sydney's attentions. It was more like that is her recognized role in the family, to be beautiful. |
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 5910 (03/08/09 1:22 PM) Registered User |
I'm not convinced the editing is trying to make us see families... birdlady, I agree. FF4 doesn't have anything to do with the editing, except that the edited material is all we have to work with. Any family roles or lack of family roles, as far as FF4 is concerned, are those that actually occurred. One of FF4's present problems is the awareness of things like family roles by people who are on Survivor and have a knowledge of the show and analysis like ours. I'm not saying that it was the result of anything discussed here or elsewhere in Sucks, but since Guatemala, there has been direct references in players' confessionals to family roles. The role of Mother has been the role most often named as a conscious strategy to survive. Such overt family role comments didn't exist when Lady V started this thread back in the Pear Islands season (before the first All Star season). |
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Lady V |
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Posts: 703 (03/13/09 8:36 PM) |
From 2/28:
"Father: JT, Coach Mother: Debbie, Taj Eccentric: Sandy, Tyson Daughters: Sydney, Erinn, Sierra Sons: Spencer, Stephen, Brendan, (Joe?) WOW. Once again, we've pegged 'em after the 3rd ep! F6: JT or Coach; Debbie or Taj; Sandy or Tyson; and 3 of: Sydney, Erinn, Sierra, Spencer, Stephen, Brendan, Joe. One kid should be going this week." Well... with 12 survivors left, we've got one sure one for the F6 (Tyson) and the rest: Debbie or Taj; JT or Coach; and 3 of: Sydney, Erinn, Sierra, Stephen, Brendan, Joe. Am I correct that there is no show on this coming Thursday? And a recap on the 26th? I will be sailing the seas on the 26th... ;)
Last Edited By: Lady V
03/13/09 8:38 PM.
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 5933 (03/13/09 8:52 PM) Registered User |
Yes, it's going to be a lo-ong time before we see another episode, LV. So, sail away!
Yep, the siblings are they're worst enemy. They'll devour each other, especially the men. Joe is definitely a Son/Brother. JT was shown as very powerful. He's the unchallenged Father and leader of his tribe. Deb continues to be mothering on Timbira. |
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ZIDANE726 |
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Posts: 57 (03/13/09 10:18 PM) Registered User |
Taj would be leaving this week. the alliance would not go into merge
this is just speculation with basis - GT leaves - hes the primary target of majority timbira with erin deciding vote (bcoz she could flip)
- Sydney goes - stephen winning immunity
that would be a perfet family
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 538 (03/23/09 10:07 AM) Registered User |
hey everyone....
just a random thought about our 2 fathers. Coach and JT. I was wondering... what is the LATEST that we've ever had 2 Dads? It usually seems that we lose the extra dad shortly after the merge at F7... my point / question is this... let's pretend that Coach goes on an immunity run  and Stephen and the EA decide to "protect" JT... so now we
are at F6.... would Coach work with Stephen & JT .... or would he work with Brendan & Sierra... and what about Taj... would she stick with her favorite
son (Stephen) or would she switch?
okay.... that was so far-fetched and random... sorry. But what if the opposite happened... what if JT goes on an immunity run (which is very likely, considering)... everyone on Timbira KNOWS that Coach is a knucklehead and would be the perfect goat... and Stephen and JT would certainly figure THAT out pretty quickly.... so what if the F4 ends up as Coach, Sierra, Stephen and JT??? Have there ever been 2 Fathers that late? Or more importantly... what would happen if Coach (F) ends up in a F2 with Sierra? or Stephen? Has a Father EVER lost in the F2/F3? Could a father lose to a daughter? or to a Son? Which would be more likely? Could 2 Fathers ever end up in the Final 2... that would be so weird.... I don't think that's likely but....it just seems like from the editing that Coach ends up near the end somewhere. somethings to ponder going into the recap on Wednesday.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
03/23/09 10:09 AM.
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2349 (03/23/09 2:31 PM) Registered user |
I think usually really bad father (eg crazy Dave) get ousted by the rest of the family, for their own preservation. Ben is a different sort of really bad
father - he's so ineffectual that he isn't really a problem. (He's sort of an F in his own mind, but an E they're willing to humor to the rest
of the tribe.) Brendan and mom keep the family running, the younger kids have settled into their roles, it's fairly functional, if annoying at times.
I think the post-merge conflict will be Brendan and JT. I still think Brendan is naturally an F, just very adaptable, and JT is certainly a young F. Both right on that S line, certainly. I could definitely imagine an F5 with either of them as an F and Ben as a delusional F. |
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MissScamper |
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Posts: 851 (04/02/09 11:02 PM) Registered User |
Hey, FLF, don't mean to be rude or anything, but I do recall Patricia W-A-A-Y back in Marquesas telling the Robfather to call her Mom. And in the next breath she was chastising him for losing the machete or something. She knew the only way she'd stay was to become the mom of the group, because she was their biggest liability. So the family roles were recognized by then, but they weren't mentioned as often as they are now. |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 562 (04/04/09 3:41 PM) Registered User |
so...
Jalapao cuts loose the only daughter over an expendable son... very interesting.... unless Taj is the daughter and someone like Stephen is the mum???? or is she the E??? nah... i still think Taj is the mum. And whatup with Coach! Are we sure he is one of the dad's??? I said early on that I felt like Coach could be an E & Tyson an S. and I still feel like that Tyson while prone to nudity is more S like... he is pretty tight with Debbie. I think Brendna has become the dad n this team... And Coach is proving to be weirder than weird ... predicting weather, horrible/selfish cooking skills, random conducting and primal screams.... I think he is TOTALLY an E... Anyway, this is what i'm seeing...: Jalapao Father - JT Mother - Taj Sons - Stephen & Joe Timbira Father - Brendan Mother - Debbie Daughters - Sierra, Erinn Son - Tyson E - Coach Exile Alliance + 1 Father: Brendan, JT Mother: Taj Son: Stephen Daughter: Sierra PS> I agree with you fallen torch, I think the EI+1 is what we are supposed to be focusing on family wise. |
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2404 (04/04/09 7:22 PM) Registered user |
Jalapao cuts loose the only daughter over an expendable son... very interesting.... unless Taj is the daughter and someone like Stephen is the mum???? or is she the E???If we count the recap, Stephen is the daughter, comforting mom and and generally being pleasant. Sydney was the son, helping dad JT fix the shelter, catch fish, start fires, etc. |
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Lady V |
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Posts: 704 (04/04/09 9:17 PM) |
Hey, everyone! Back from my birthday trip on the ocean... it was lovely looking out at the sea every day... ahhhh... I missed the recap; will watch it online
sometime before Thursday, though. I did catch Thursday's ep.
Phoenix wrote her list as: Jalapao Father - JT Mother - Taj Sons - Stephen & Joe Timbira Father - Brendan Mother - Debbie Daughters - Sierra, Erinn Son - Tyson E - Coach I agree with this except I see Coach as an ineffectual father on Timbira, with Tyson as the E (he has been portrayed as a clear E). So far, this has been like clockwork. We have a father and mother on each tribe, lots of kids, and one E left, which is typical. I see Brendan as an eldest son character. As for your questions, Phoenix, there have never been 2 fathers at F6. The excess Fs and Ms get voted off between merge and F6. I will post the FF4 hypotheses and all-season F4s next. If a parent is in the F2, the parent is more likely to win. Kids have beaten parents in the F4, to be sure. |
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Lady V |
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Posts: 705 (04/04/09 9:20 PM) |
~~**~ REPOST OF FF4 HYPOTHESES ~**~~
1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. (13 of 17 seasons) 2) F4 will not contain two people with the same role. (12 of 17) 3) There will not be 2 Fs or 2Ms in the F6 (0/17). 4) The F2 will not be two dads nor two moms. (0/17) 5) the F2 generally will not be two kids. (has been only 5 of 17) However, in the rare case the F2 is two kids, at least one will be an "unusual" child with strong "adult" (leader) tendencies. 6) The winner will not be E. (0/17) 7) If a parent is in the F2 with a non-parent, the parent will win. (7 times parent-nonparent has been in F2; 6 times the parent has won) Historical FF4 finishes (1st letter was the winner, second letter came in second, etc.): S1: F,D,M,E S2: M,S,F,D S3: S,M,F,E S4: M,D,M,F S5: F,S,M,E S6: D,E,S,F S7: M,E,S,D S8: D,S,M,F S9: F,E,M,D S10: F,D,S,D S11: D,D,S,M * (F voted out F7) S12: S,D,F,M S13: S,E,D,M * (F voted out F7) S14: F,M/S,E (only an F3, so hard to tell who was 2nd and who 3rd) S15: S,D,D/E,M *(F3 season again) S16: D, D, M, D S17: F, M, D, S (F3 season) |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 563 (04/05/09 10:44 AM) Registered User |
thanks for reposting the Hypothesis, Lady V...
interesting that the only times a Mother & Father have been in the finals together, it has been an F3, and both times the mother lost. (Fiji & Gabon). and thank you both, birdlady and Lady V, for answering my questions/random thoughts.... I just feel like Coach is going to be dragged along to the finals as a goat, but the only way I can "justify" that in my mind is if he's an E. I could be really wrong, but i just don't see him as an F, although I do see he WANTS to be an F. *shrugs* and birdlady - interesting thought that Stephen is the Daughter and Sydney the expendable son.... THAT i can see.... good one! ETA: So i was looking again at the chart... and we've had a parent in the F2/F3 ....10.5 times out of 17.... That's a lot, and only ONCE did the parent lose (Kim J in S3 Africa): S1: F,D,M,E (Rich) S2: M,S,F,D (Tina) S3: S,M,F,E (Kim J Loses) S4: M,D,M,F (Vee) S5: F,S,M,E (Brian) S6: D,E,S,F S7: M,E,S,D (Sandra) S8: D,S,M,F S9: F,E,M,D (Chris) S10: F,D,S,D (Tom) S11: D,D,S,M S12: S,D,F,M S13: S,E,D,M (Yul as a 0.5 father)*** S14: F,M/S,E *F3 (Earl) S15: S,D,D/E,M *F3 S16: D, D, M, D S17: F, M, D, S *F3 (Bob) *** I would postulate that Yul was a Son/Father.... a son with Father tendencies... ie filling the "Father" role when Aitu lost their dad.
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
04/05/09 10:54 AM.
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fat little fingers |
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Posts: 6003 (04/06/09 6:27 PM) Registered User |
but I do recall Patricia W-A-A-Y back in Marquesas telling the Robfather to call her Mom. Thanks, MS. But, Did she have a confessional in which she talked of it being her strategy? I don't remember that happening until Lydia in Guatemala. But, I'm no Survivor historian. Lol. |
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Lady V |
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Posts: 706 (04/10/09 10:00 PM) |
Hey--thanks, Phoenix! That is interesting info! Yes, Kim J lost in S3, but remember that S3 was a season in which the producers goofed: they made a mistake at
the IC at F4, I believe it was. It was the answer-questions-about-tribe-members challenge, and the question was about piercings and there were 2 people with
piercings (Lex named one), but the producers only had one person as having a piercing. So they said Lex lost the challenge when he actually won it. Had it gone
as it should have, he would've won the game because of who he would've picked to go to F3. He was the F that season, so we would have had NO instances
of a parent ever losing in F2. S3 came right after the Tina debacle, where she persuaded her S to let her win the game; so when it came down to Ethan-Kim,
obviously Ethan was going to win that season. Lex was paid extra money by the show as a result of the blunder.
Anyway, as for this week's ep... hmpf. I was looking forward to tribal. Darn. Poor Joe and his black hole-in-the-knee! This is how I see it (remembering that those with dual roles or those who are hard to classify typically go sooner than later): Jalapaoians: Father - JT Mother - Taj Son - Stephen Timbirans: Father - Coach Mother - Debbie Daughters - Sierra, Erinn Son - Brendan Eccentric - Tyson So we've got a struggle between JT, Coach, and Brendan (no surprise for us FF4ers!). FF4 says JT or Coach will go before F6, and Taj or Debbie will go before F6 (Debbie looked really strong in the last IC). And one kid will be gone, so... F6: F - Coach or JT M - Debbie or Taj E - Tyson S - Stephen, Brendan D - Sierra, Erin My guesses: F: JT M: Taj E: Tyson S: Stephen D: Erin, Sierra |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 576 (04/10/09 10:28 PM) Registered User |
hmmmmm...
okay... after this merge episode, i am more convinced than ever that Coach is our E. No Father would go out of his way to bond with the other father figures. I've also decided that Taj is not a mother, but a daughter.... so i am totally going to be the rebel here: Final 6: Father: JT Mother: Debbie Eccentric: Coach Son: Stephen Daughter: Taj*, Erinn *daughter with mothering tendencies ETA: Brendan - S (I think Brendan's an S and that his issue is that he isn't comfortable with the father role that has been thrust upon him. As birdlady noted, Timbirians asked JT to fish for them, etc... which means Brendan is not living up to his F role.) Tyson - S/E?? (still think he is more of an S than an E... and S with E tendencies??) Sierra - D
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04/13/09 9:33 AM.
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birdlady |
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Posts: 2444 (04/11/09 5:37 PM) Registered user |
Taj was the one who acted concerned about Joe, which is kind of motherly. Debbie was the one waving the wine bottle at the feast, which is sort of adolescent.
We didn't see all that much of either of them, though.
It is interesting that Ben insists he has this big rivalry with Brendan for the head, while Brendan seems not concerned about Ben at all. I don't remember Ben being protective or providing or anything fatherly like that. Whereas even some of the original Timbira were looking forward to JT finding food for them. |
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