S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins - Survivor Speculation - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks - Message Board

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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Green Coffee		#1601	[-]
Posts: 203 (03/08/09 10:35 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: Actually Green Coffee, I do have issues with you for the first time ever. 1. You didn't think Spencer was INV in episode 3? 2. You eliminate Taj for Type A but not Brendan? They've had the same edit IMO. Haha fair enough (thanks for all of the praise, though) I don't think Spencer was INV in episode 3. Although he was really flat and boring, as others have mentioned he essentially got a "TCQ" right before a challenge commenting on perceptions of Taj going to exile. I want to be super conservative in giving out INVs and he just barely crossed beyond that. I think Taj and Brendan have slightly different edits (by my chart). Taj: UTR3, CP4, CP3, OTTP5 Brendan: MOR2 (MIX), CP2, CPP4, MOR2 Taj's episode 1 was actually weaker than Brendan's, IMO. She mostly just lectured Carolina and told her that being overbearing was bad (in an overbearing way no less). Other than that, she's there to lose baby weight. Her personal development in the episode was very minimal and most of her screentime was back-loaded. Brendan on the other hand, had a much earlier confessional that was heavily game related. Some will say it's all about Coach (and he is talking about Coach), but I think it also told us a little bit about Brendan as a person and a player. He's savvy and observant. He's not willing to buy Coach's plan and he thinks that being so upfront about game strategy is bad. Is this confessional an excuse to set up the Coach character or a way to subtley introduce a strategic character without going overboard? I'm not so sure, but I see it as more impactful than the consensus UTR implies. Episodes 2 and 3 were VERY similar for these two, I agree. Episode 4 has Taj staying in full power distraction mode (CPP5 and OTTP5 would both do this so my unpopular assessment here is irrelevant). She's a huge character and the story is centering on her. Meanwhile, Brendan has a lower-key narration of the Exile Alliance's story (Timbira branch). He's lower vis than before and comes across as much more reserved. Both edits are plagued by similar problems and Brendan's not looking particularly good. However, Taj is way too distracting at this point and had a weaker episode 1. Further, the preview gives me little hope that she is cooling down soon (probably an OTT/CP episode again). Brendan, on the other hand, is much more open to get what he needs (a very low key episode). If anything, he's 5 on a list of 7 so chances are he's just going to be eliminated a little bit later than Taj for the same reasons.
Green Coffee		#1602	[-]
Posts: 204 (03/08/09 10:48 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	taks wrote: That said, there was one thing that really alarmed me in your Guideline analysis... Regarding Universal Guideline 2: Partially Meets Guideline: Brendan, JT, Spencer, Taj All had sufficient Vis, but few cite them as having an impactful episode 1. Some would argue that Brendan violates this guideline completely. I agree that Taj and Brendan both had very little impact in episode 1. Brendan was all about Coach. Taj was all about booting Carolina. Spencer also had an arguably weak episode one. He said that he was the youngest player and interested in the physical aspect. He also was about booting Carolina. JT got one of the best confessionals in episode one however. He told us what he did, where he was from, how that would help him (his strengths) and what he would need to work on to succeed. This was directly contrasted with Stephen's confessional about fitting in. In fact, I've read multiple people state that they are keeping JT in on the basis of his episode one edit! That's pretty impactful. However, I do completely agree that he is far too "P" for a perfect winner. His episode two and three definitely highlighted how great he was. Episode four? Not so much. The Rupert comparison was something more to plug Rupert's name than to help JT out. He barely got a passing mention about how much weight he held. They definitely could've gone over the top with him, but neglected to. I think this is worth noting in his tone. His previous edit would suggest that the editors want to go all out "P" with leader superhero JT, but episode four contradicted this. He didn't get the glory in the two challenges that he could've. He also didn't get positive SPV at all, really. I suggest rewatching episode four, carefully looking for JT's tone. You'll notice that it's fairly absent, which is odd. Besides that, I think I'd have to agree with everything you've said. The amount of thought you put into it is apparent and I'm impressed. Just looking at one or two people's edits that closely has me burnt out. Thanks for all of the praise! I'm going to have to rewatch his scenes in episode 1. He did seem pretty present so maybe I'm off here. When I did this, I gave most of them the "Meets Guideline" classification based on all of the heavy discussion of early confessionals. I feel like it might have also been based on whether those confessionals came in before the first commercial as well, but I can't remember (I've been doing the charts since episode 1, but only recently have discussed them). Given that JT fits that guideline, he stays afloat in Type A for a while longer in my estimation. He does need some balance to his tone, which is still all P (although maybe I'm overestimating the degree of it all, especially in episode 4). If we think his episode 1 is solid, I'd rank him as maybe just above Brendan, near Tyson. He wouldn't crack the top 3 though. I think his best bet is a Type B win overall.
ncassaro		#1603	[-]
Posts: 762 (03/09/09 12:02 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	OK Green Coffee you made me see this differently... I agree now that Brendan has had a better edit than Taj... Taj has been all Team Secret, all the time. Brendan has been much more besides that. It's like the onions. IF they failed, you knew it was going to be Marcus taking the heat, not Randy, Corinne, or Charlie, because it was Marcus who was edited as uber-onion. Taj's edit has been one-dimensional Team Secret only. Brendan has the leader of Timbira, the alliance with Sierra (the Taj/Stephen alliance was sprung on us as a surprise), AND the exile alliance which he really hasn't talked about all that much. Sierra has the most well-rounded edit of the four, with Stephen second, and Brendan third. That said, I don't like the chances of either Brendan or Taj, though Brendan's edit has been much better. THAT said, if Brendan had had a good episode one, he'd be on the top of my list instead of eliminated from it (I've been trying to play it safe by keeping him on, but screw it. I know that no matter what happens in episodes 5 and 6 I'm not gonna pick him, so why even bother keeping him in contention?) Sierra is my girl in this (and I absolutely thought her supporters were being ridiculous in episode one.) I'm still open to the options of JT, Stephen, Erinn, and Tyson, though I feel in my gut that Erinn and Tyson are characters, not winners. We'll see what episodes 5 and 6 will bring. I am confident though that an edgic majority will support the correct winner by the merge, which I never was until this episode.
SJHalle		#1604	[-]
Posts: 37 (03/09/09 1:28 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I really think that the winner will come from the Exile Alliance. For as long as I can remember, the winner has come from an important alliance/relationship that was highlighted with in the first two to three episodes. We saw Yul and Becky in CI and Yul won, then Earl and Yao Man in Fiji, and Earl won. In China, we saw Amanda and Todd's alliance in Ep. 2: Todd won. Then in Micronesia there was the Couples Alliance in Ep. 2 -and- the Amanda, Cirie, Parvati boat scene in Ep. 3. Parv was involved in both and won. In addition all three of the canoe girls made it to the end. Gabon is a little trickier of course but that might be attributed to the fact that it has a Danni like winner. The Onion Alliance was what I'd consider the highlighted grouping, but even Bob was an Onion, as outer of a layer as he was. Based on Ep. 3 of Micronesia, I really don't think that the fact that the Exile Alliance has been highlighted as the final four is necessarily bad for their chances of making it there. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up peppering the merge instead like The Couples Alliance did. I don't think it will be smooth sailing for them to the end but I do think one of them wins. Based on the trend the only other person I can't rule out is JT, because of his friendship with Stephen being spoon fed to us in Ep. 2. Most importantly, I think the fact that Erinn's relationships have been simplified rather than explored really hurts her winners chances. It's all about Erinn not fitting in and being on the outs of her tribe, when insider vids have painted a somewhat different picture, suggesting that she's at least somewhat in with Brendan and Sierra. I think that if Erinn won, we'd be seeing a more complex editing of her alliances/personal relationships but instead all we see is her adversity in dealing with Roach and Tyson.
AbbyGirl		#1605	[-]
Posts: 31 (03/09/09 1:33 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I like your posts ncassaro! I don't agree with all of what you say, but you have some good ideas and could be right in what you say. I think Sierra is the top contender now, Stephen and Brendan are tied for second place. Maybe Brendan didn't get enough in episode one, but he did get something. I do not see him as a distraction yet, so that is a good thing for him. Could he be a Marcus? Sure! Sierra could be a Marcus for all we know, but those two have story and I think it goes for a while past merge. Stephen is being set up to be there a while, he had a good first episode and isn't as out front as Taj is....that's good for his chances right now. Pre-merge distractions right now look to be Coach, Tyson, and Taj. Erinn could be one soon, it looks like we are starting to get some story from her now. Will she be a distraction or have a real story? Only time will tell. CL, I agree with you about doubt for the Exile Alliance. One or two might fall before finale night, but I really do believe we are seeing enough doubt for the EA members for one of them to come out a winner. Brendan with being the leader... Jerry said you don't want to be a leader or you could go early, Coach is now saying to everyone if Brendan were to go tomorrow he would take over as leader. It's giving me doubt he could last long. Next week the alliance possibly is exposed giving us all doubt that it can last. Sierra had doubt the first few weeks, she is looking better now but of course they will keep showing her in trouble off and on through out the season if she is the winner. Taj had some doubt when Spencer (I think?) said she was having a hard time out there and she seemed tired after going to Exile. Then there's the money thing of course. Stephen doesn't have as much doubt, but that will come soon if he is a possible winner. I also agree with CL (?) noting the difference between Sierra's and Erinn's edits... just look at the the shots of their faces at TC after Jerry left. Sierra looked sad, Erinn had a little smirk. I have no idea where Erinn's edit is going, but I do not see her as a winner. It is unfair to rule out anyone besides Sydney, Debra, Coach, and Joe as a winner right now. Soon Spencer, Tyson and a few others will be on my eliminated list. To me it's still one of Sierra, Stephen or Brendan winning. JT, Taj and Erinn are way behind but not out of it. JT could move up if he gets more of what he needs next time. And if one of Sierra, Brendan or Stephen picks their noses, gets drunk, or slaps a monkey, they are off my winner list! :)
BlakeB717		#1606	[-]
Posts: 1410 (03/09/09 1:39 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SJHalle wrote: I really think that the winner will come from the Exile Alliance. For as long as I can remember, the winner has come from an important alliance/relationship that was highlighted with in the first two to three episodes. We saw Yul and Becky in CI and Yul won, then Earl and Yao Man in Fiji, and Earl won. In China, we saw Amanda and Todd's alliance in Ep. 2: Todd won. Then in Micronesia there was the Couples Alliance in Ep. 2 -and- the Amanda, Cirie, Parvati boat scene in Ep. 3. Parv was involved in both and won. In addition all three of the canoe girls made it to the end. Gabon is a little trickier of course but that might be attributed to the fact that it has a Danni like winner. The Onion Alliance was what I'd consider the highlighted grouping, but even Bob was an Onion, as outer of a layer as he was. Based on Ep. 3 of Micronesia, I really don't think that the fact that the Exile Alliance has been highlighted as the final four is necessarily bad for their chances of making it there. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up peppering the merge instead like The Couples Alliance did. I don't think it will be smooth sailing for them to the end but I do think one of them wins. Based on the trend the only other person I can't rule out is JT, because of his friendship with Stephen being spoon fed to us in Ep. 2. Most importantly, I think the fact that Erinn's relationships have been simplified rather than explored really hurts her winners chances. It's all about Erinn not fitting in and being on the outs of her tribe, when insider vids have painted a somewhat different picture, suggesting that she's at least somewhat in with Brendan and Sierra. I think that if Erinn won, we'd be seeing a more complex editing of her alliances/personal relationships but instead all we see is her adversity in dealing with Roach and Tyson. Again, SJHalle... X
BlakeB717		#1607	[-]
Posts: 1411 (03/09/09 2:12 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	REMEMBER THIS.... (back in Fiji when I was nice, LOL... I wonder what went wrong?) SEASON 3? Hmmm...
getting real		#1608	[-]
Posts: 1548 (03/09/09 5:33 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Blake, I normally have a very high regard for your ratings, but I must disagree with your Episode 11 rating for yourself as well as with Astroline's Ep 3 CPP5 rating. In consultation with Guatemala Fanfic, here are my reasons: CP - Complex personality बैंक का कहना है कि वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में गिरावट का विकासशील देशों पर दीर्घकालिक प्रभाव पड़ेगा. विश्व बैंक के पूर्वानुमान के अनुसार विकासशील देशों को इस साल 270 अरब डॉलर से 700 अरब डॉलर के कर्ज़ की कमी महसूस होगी. इसका कारण यह है कि निजी क्षेत्र की वित्तीय संस्थाएं उभरते हुए बाज़ारों को कर्ज़ देने से बचने लगी हैं. बैंक का कहना है कि वित्तीय संकट का समाना कर रहे कमज़ोर देशों में केवल एक-चौथाई देश ऐसे है जो अपने यहां गरीबी बढ़ने से रोकने के लिए संसाधन जुटा सकते हैं. 1) Irrelevant, no confessionals or tribal council questions in the early episodes, little or no confessionals or tribal council questions in the mid to late episodes. 2) The player's editing was insignificant to any character development. प्रभावित होने वाले क्षेत्र मूल रूप से शहरी इलाक़ों में केंद्रित हैं. इनमें निर्यात, निर्माण और खनन क्षेत्र सबसे ज्यादा प्रभावित हुए हैं. भविष्य और ख़राब रिपोर्ट कहती है कि दुनिया भर के देशों के बीच परस्पर व्यापार भी अस्सी वर्षों के निचले स्तर पर पहुँच सकता है. 1) UTR means a character that is either underutilized or deliberately hidden (the trick is figuring out which). In story terms, they are kept out of focus. An UTR edit means the player may be seen, but they aren't seen doing or saying anything of major significance. Since showcasing players who do nothing isn't very entertaining, UTR edits do tend toward low visibility, but that needn't be the case. 2) Players who receive significant face time, but little to no speaking time. 3) The UTR Edit within an episode will typically be void of direct conflicts and character insight. 4) If the player gets some significant screen time, but doesn't do anything special, then you rate it UTR. Tone PP) Extremely positive. P) Positive. No rating Static neutral M) Dynamic Mixed neutral - If you think someone was noticibly P AND N within one episode. Mixed in the case of OTT represents a disagreement in consensus over the tone. N) Negative. NN) Extremely negative. रिपोर्ट कहती है कि दुनिया भर के देशों के बीच परस्पर व्यापार भी अस्सी वर्षों के निचले स्तर पर पहुँच सकता है. विश्व बैंक के पूर्वानुमानों के मुताबिक 2009 के मध्य तक वैश्विक औद्योगिक उत्पादन वर्ष 2008 के स्तर से 15 फ़ीसदी कम हो सकता है. यह रिपोर्ट शनिवार को जी 20 देशों के वित्तमंत्रियों और इन देशों के केंद्रीय बैंकों के गवर्नरों की बैठक में पेश की जाएगी. रिपोर्ट में भारत में बेरोज़गारी का ज़िक्र किया गया है. पिछले वर्ष अक्तूबर से दिसंबर के बीच भारत में पाँच लाख लोगों की नौकरियाँ जा चुकी हैं. ज़्यादातर नौकरियाँ रत्न-आभूषण, ऑटो औक कपड़ा उद्योगों में गई हैं. Visibility Measures the amount of presence that a player had in an episode. Visibility includes confessionals, speaking time, face time, second person visibility and tribal council questions (TCQ). 1) Low visibility. 2) Medium low visibility. 3) Average visibility. 4) Medium high visibility. 5) High visibility. वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था पर संकट गहराया विश्व बैंक की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक दूसरे विश्व युद्ध के बाद पहली बार वैश्विक औद्योगिक उत्पादन घटेगा और मंदी का भारत समेत अन्य विकासशील देशों पर दीर्घकालिक असर पड़ेगा. विश्व बैंक का अनुमान है कि विश्व का सकल आर्थिक उत्पाद यानी जीडीपी संभावित क्षमता से पांच प्रतिशत नीचे रहेगा. बैंक का कहना है कि वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में गिरावट का विकासशील देशों पर दीर्घकालिक प्रभाव पड़ेगा. विश्व बैंक के पूर्वानुमान के अनुसार विकासशील देशों को इस साल 270 अरब डॉलर से 700 अरब डॉलर के कर्ज़ की कमी महसूस होगी. इसका कारण यह है कि निजी क्षेत्र की वित्तीय संस्थाएं उभरते हुए बाज़ारों को कर्ज़ देने से बचने लगी हैं. बैंक का कहना है कि वित्तीय संकट का समाना कर रहे कमज़ोर देशों में केवल एक-चौथाई देश ऐसे है जो अपने यहां गरीबी बढ़ने से रोकने के लिए संसाधन जुटा सकते हैं. वैश्विक स्तर पर 116 विकासशील देशों में से 94 देशों की आर्थिक वृद्धि दर गिरी है. इसमें से 43 देशों में गरीबी अधिक है. हाल के समय में मंदी से अधिक प्रभावित होने वाले क्षेत्र मूल रूप से शहरी इलाक़ों में केंद्रित हैं. इनमें निर्यात, निर्माण और खनन क्षेत्र सबसे ज्यादा प्रभावित हुए हैं. Given the above, it's obvious that the correct rating should be CPP4 for yourself and OTTP for Astroline. FLF, for your action, please.....
chaperone		#1609	[-]
Posts: 2605 (03/09/09 11:05 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	What's with the random Hindi, Getting Real?
Jedijake		#1610	[-]
Posts: 5507 (03/09/09 12:27 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Why don't I get any ratings?
fat little fingers		#1611	[-]
Posts: 5911 (03/09/09 1:50 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Greetings, mahdoo, (and anyone else new and lurking). Edgic can seem to get a bit Byzantine at times (Okay, when was the last time you got to use the word "Byzantine"?), but the concept and steps are pretty straightforward. The first two posts on page one explain things in a nutshell. Beyond that we get into Edgic Theology, in which the beliefs of what the Guidelines (and to make matters worse, unwritten Guidelines) actually mean. So, once you get how the visibility is rated and what the different rates are, (UTR thru OTT...or is it UTR thru CP??...oh, hell...), try applying them in real time, (ie., post them.) We'll probably ignore you and you'll feel completely invisible for a while, but hey, you are already! Eventually, one of the older "experts", (You know, the ones who picked Marcus, etc..), will feel they've seen your avatar and nick enough to actually reply to your ideas. If you say something boneheaded, you'll probably get flamed by someone just itching to show their superiority, but for the most part we are a fairly civil, supportive crowd. Just be aware that we're a big party and I can't account for everyone who comes through the front door, so... use your noodle, and keep your gloves up and your elbows by your ribs and join the, er, fun? Yeah, that's what it is, fun.
Werwanderflugen		#1612	[-]
Posts: 203 (03/09/09 2:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	After a rewatch, my ratings didn't change much at all (Coach from OTTN3 to MORN3, and Sandy from CP4 to CPM4), so no re-explanations. I'm still somewhat unsure about Erinn and Sierra's ratings, but I went with my gut on them.
fat little fingers		#1613	[-]
Posts: 5912 (03/09/09 2:34 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	My posted ratings have Brendan as MORP, which is wrong. I voted him straight MOR. His tone is as vague as can be in Ep4: Was his inability to tell Sierra about the alliance negative? It was left neutral by all comments from Sierra and Taj. Was his bringing up picking a leader N or P? Tyson made it lean toward N, but Tyson being an N character leaves it, well, vague. Unfortunately for Brendan's chances, it also leaves Brendan's edit vague.
Kathy Fan 2		#1614	[-]
Posts: 4871 (03/09/09 2:35 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sierra's story is being featured more (IMO) because she really is lucking into major aspects of the season. She was voted weakest in Ep 1. If it had been Erinn who was voted weakest in Ep. 1, REGARDLESS of how Erinn ultimately finished in the game, I think she'd have been featured. And not just in episode 1, but more as an underdog until she was ultimately voted out. Whether that be episode, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, whatever. They'd have pimped up that the person who was seen weakest was still around, cause it's the theme this season, IMO. I'm not saying Sierra doesn't have substance, but it makes for a great story if the underdog makes the merge and makes it far, so there's really no choice but to detail it, whether she wins or not. I don't think you can "choose" Sierra's edit given the situation. It's only complicated by her being taken into the Exile Alliance. Now they have to show her even MORE, because again she's being included in a Survivor "first."
Phoenix1269		#1615	[-]
Posts: 519 (03/09/09 3:13 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Green Coffee... i like your analysis very much, i love the idea of classification for the winner edits... but i do have some questions regarding how you are determining Type A vs Type B... I'm finding that i disagree wildly with some of your assessments. I realize that you have been using your own ratings, which is fair, Type A / Type B is your ballpark after all... however... the data we have to analyze is the "official data" so that is what I'm using... and this actually makes up a large part of why i am in disagreement with some of your assessments. Since we are ONLY at episode 4.... i think that to drop someone from Type A because they are too P or too MOR is inconsistent with past data. For comparison... I think it would be helpful if you could clarify what you think some of our past winners were... For example... I think we are all in agreement that Bob & Danni are definitely Type B winners (and based on editing patterns Amber fits here too), they all skew UTR in their early edits: Bob OTTP3 • UTR1 • MOR2 • UTRP1 Danni UTR2 • MOR2 • UTR2 • UTR2 Amber UTRP1 • UTR1 • OTTP2 • MOR3 And I would also say that everyone would be in agreement that Richard, Yul, Earl & Todd are all true Type A winners... heavy CP & higher visibility in the early episodes - maybe some tone, maybe some cool down: Rich CP5 • CPP4 • CP4 • CPN3 Yul CP3 • CPP4 • CP4 • UTR1 Earl CP4 • CPP4 • UTR2 • CP3 Todd CP4 • CP3 • CP4 • MOR3 But... here's the rub... we have 10 other winners (more than half) who don't fit these 2 extreme edits of Type A (very complex) and Type B (very UTR). What do we do with winners Ethan, Chris and Parvati? are they Type A or Type B? Ethan CPP4 • MOR2 • UTR2 • MORP3 Chris CPN4 • UTR2 • MOR2 • UTR2 Parvati CP4 • UTR2 • MOR3 • MOR2 These 3 have very similar early edits. They all have a very strong episode 1, followed by 3 lower-key edits. I don't know what I would classify these 3 as.... are they Type B? they started strong but then all took a back seat to the rest of the action (like Bob). Could they be Type A's because of their strong start?? I don't actually know... I think this is a completely different edit.... but identifiable because of the strong Episode 1. I can't see anyone saying that Chris was a Type B, and even Parvati would be a stretch to call a Type B. I think this is a hybrid edit. Enough of Type A in episode 1 to identify, but with a lot of early cool-down, like the Type B. That leaves us with the REST OF THEM, the largest group of winners... they all start out so.... MOR-ish Do you consider people like Aras (S12) and Tom (S10) to be Type B winners? How about Brian or Jenna or Sandra, even Tina? Unlike Bob & Danni... their early edits do not lean UTR. And Tom is actually MORE POSITIVE than Bob, if that's at all possible. And Brian, Jenna and Aras all have negativity to their edits by Episode 4. Tina INV • MOR3 • MOR3 • CPP4 Vee UTR2 • MOR4 • CPP4 • MOR3 Brian MOR2 • UTRP3 • CPP4 • UTRN2 Jenna MOR4 • MORN3 • UTRN2 • UTR2 Sandra MORP4 • MOR4 • OTTN2 • UTR2 Tom MORP3 • MORP3 • OTTP4 • MORP3 Aras MOR2 • MORN3 • UTR2 • MORP3 I considered putting Tina & Vee with the Type B / UTR winners, but other than the E1 INV/UTR, they both became became very MORish, so I put them here. I think most people would want to classify this group as Type A.... there is too much going on for a UTR / Type B edit. However... these edits are not complex in the beginning... these winners are present, they are around commenting on the action... they never get really huge, but they never disappeared either, they skew Middle of the Road... I don;t think that they fit Type A better than Type B... but they certainly don't fit Type B better than Type A!! I want to give them their own classification becuase when you look at them as a group... it sort of stands out, doesn't it? So... I guess this brings me to a few questions for Green Coffee, as well as my own analysis... Firstly GC, my questions are of course, how are you classify the past winners into Type A and B? Who do you see where, and why? And how do you resolve the disparity of the majority of the winners not fitting nicely into the Type A definition. How are you defining Type B? If it's truly UTR, then someone like JT doesn't fit, does he? The actual rankings JT is receiving is much more in line with Aras and Tom, rather than Amber, Bob or Danni. And really, most people would never classify Tom, Aras, Brian, Sandra... or even Jenna as a Type B! These winners are much more developed than Amber, Danni & Bob in the early episodes and they have more in common with the Type A's than the Type B's. And lastly, specific questions pertaining to GC Type A break down... you have listed as probable Type A winners as Sierra, Stephen & Erinn. And then Tyson, Brendan, JT, Spencer are listed as the "middling/hanging on" Type A's: Using the official data, so that we are comparing apples to apples, that looks like this. The asterisk () indicates unofficial vote: Sierra CPP4 CP4 MOR2 UTR2 Stephen MOR2 CPP3 MOR2 MOR3* Erinn UTR2 UTR2 CPM4 CP3/MOR3* Tyson OTTM2 MOR3 CPN4 OTTM3* Brendan UTR2 CP5 CP4 MOR2* JT MOR2 MORP2 MORP3 CPP3/MORP3* Spencer MOR2 MOR2 UTR1 UTR2* Sierra fits GC's Type A very well, and Stephen, can still fit the Type A style but is on the MORish side. But why do you have Erinn listed as a PROBABLE TIER 1 Type A winner? Erinn does not fit the pattern of a Type A at all... her edit fits the pattern of the Type B winner way better. Tyson doesn't really fit any of the winner patterns but with all the problems concerning his E1 close calls for both rating and tone, i can't eliminate him either. Does he fit Type A... maybe... but definitely NOT Type B. Brendan does not fit any of the winner's patterns. Actually... whoever called that Brendan looks like Cirie from S16 is right on the money (i think it was Blake)... the tone is different, but exactly the same ratings and visibility as Cirie UTR2 / CPP5 / CPM5 / MORN3. Correct call to remove Taj UTR2 / CPP4 / CP3 / CPP5* from this list, she is also like Cirie S16... but then why not Brendan? Officially... he has the same rankings as she does. I think that JT has much more in common with winners like Aras and Tom, than Danni or Bob, and as a result, he should be in your top tier for A's. Spencer, having 2 back to back cool downs, is a bit much, but could still keep him in contention (like Jenna or Sandra), even though i think he's a slightly better fit for Type B. Phoenix's Analysis: So, i found that trying to organize my thoughts about the Type A / Type B analysis to ask Green Coffee some questions, I have realized something that has been bugging me for a while.... there are not 2 types of winners... there are actually 4. The 4 Winning Edits Model Type A = Complex Edit complex individual in early episodes. Leaning Strategic & Logical. Mostly CPs, but by E4 will have one cool down episode (A MOR or UTR). Higher Visibility, averaging between 3 & 4. Mostly Neutral tone, may have one or two episodes with tone, but will not end up overly P or N. Type A's win because we have seen from the start how they played a good game. Type AB = Complex UTR This edit combines Type A & Type B. Episode 1 is Huge and Complex. We learn about them and their strategy. They may be toned in E1 (P or N), and they will have a higher Vis (around 4) and they are definitely shown to be complex & having their head in the game. The following early episodes (E2-E5), the AB winner takes a back seat. They may go UTR for a couple of episodes, but will likely stay MORish, and their visibility drops (around 2ish). Their tone will likely remain neutral. This winner wins mostly because of game and partly due to the mistakes of their F2/F3 partners. Type B = UTR Edit True Under the Radar, early episodes almost void of character development and thought processes. We meet them, we know a little about them, but we do not see the action through their eyes. Early episodes are mostly UTR with low visibility, but never truly invisible. Will have at least 1, maybe 2 early episodes that tells us something about them (MORish or OTTish, not CP). Tone will be Neutral to positive, but not negative. The Type B winner is the "alternate" winner or the "It's Not XXX" winner. Type C = The MOR Winner This contains the majority of the winners. This winner starts off as a MOR character. They are presented in E1* as somewhat likeable, they are not overly high in visibility. By Episode 4, every MOR winner has had tone (either Positive or Negative, or both). The MOR winner's early episodes may range in visibility from 2 to 4, but averages in near 3. The MOR winner has several MOR edits in the early part, but will likely have at least 1 episode that is not MOR (it could be UTR, OTT or CP AND it will likely have tone). The MOR winner edit takes off around the merge. This winner wins equally because of game and due to the mistakes/unlikeable of their F2/F3 partners. (Tina of course is the exception, but as Mark Burnett has already stated that was intentional) I want to take a look at everyone using the expanded definitions that i did above. Type A, AB, B and C. Mostly because i am having difficulty resolving the largest group... the MOR winners.... this group generally start off the season so MORish... and I think that Green Coffee is RIGHT in that by only looking for the Type A or AB edit... we are missing a lot of information and we overlook certain people. Based on all of the above, here is my analysis of the remaining players using the 4 Winners Edits Model... Ben = CPN4 • OTTN4 • OTTN5 • MORN3 He could only qualify for Type A or AB... but he has been painted as too Negative. No winner has had this much negative tone in the early episodes. Not even Brian or Jenna. NOT WINNING Brendan = UTR2 • CP5 • CP4 • MOR2* The UTR E1 eliminated him from Type A & AB. His E2 & E3 complexities eliminate him from Type B. He could be Type C... but he hasn't come in MORish enough, nor has he yet to get any true, manipulated tone. But still... not enough to eliminate him completely. Cause for concern... no winner has ever gone from an E1 UTR to an E2 CP. This is a very Cirie S16 like edit. Exactly the same Vis #s and Ratings in the exact same order. TYPE C - still possible, though unlikely Debra = INV • UTR2 • UTR2 • UTRP2* Edgically, the INV is a problem. But, pretending it isn't, her overly UTR edit eliminates her from Type A & AB (no complexity). While she could theoretically mimic Tina's edit... she still is still too UTR for a Type C MOR edit. Type B would be our only option, but even Amber having 2 UTR1s to start, had a big episode by now. NOT WINNING Erinn = UTR2 • UTR2 • CPM4 • CP3/MOR3* Erinn is eliminated from Type A & AB due to her soft E1 episode. She fits into Type B or Type C without too much problem. Her editing pattern is, so far, closest to Amber. And like Amber, Erinn has some nasties & unlikeables on her tribe from which to choose from for a final partner. She started off too UTR for a Type C. But she has the wrong tone in E3 for a Type B. I haven't crossed her off my list, but there are some nigglies for me still. Type B or Type C - still possible Joe = UTR2 • UTR2 • UTR2 • UTR2* My that is a lovely string of toneless UTRs. That effectively eliminates him from all 4 categories. Too UTR for either A or AB or C, no tone and too static for Type B. NOT WINNING JT = MOR2 • MORP2 • MORP3 • CPP3/MORP3* Too MORish for Type A or AB or B, but fits beautifully in to the past winners' patterns for Type C. Positive leanings, and near complex on his confessionals. mid range visibility. Type C - very likely Sierra = CPP4 • CP4 • MOR2 • UTR2* Not as strong of a Type A as past Type A's... for a true type A edit, she should have had another CP at this point. She does fit the Type AB better (similar to Parvati) but again, her E2 is a little too strong for this pattern. Definitely not Type B (too CP) or Type C (not MOR enough). Type A or AB - probable Spencer = MOR2 • MOR2 • UTR1 • UTR2* Not complex enough for Type A or Type AB. No tone and visibility is too low for Type C. Possible Type B (like Danni), but worrisome... doesn't have any real story. Type B - barely, but not yet eliminated. Stephen = MOR2 • CPP3 • MOR2 • MOR3* This is the poster child for the Type C winner. Starts off E1 as a likable MOR character that we learn a bit about. Mid-range visibility. Has received tone by E4 (his E2 was P). Has had several MOR edits, and had one CP edit with tone. Has a story that is building towards the merge. Type C = very likely Sydney = UTR2 • UTR1 • INV • MOR3* Edgically, the INV is a problem. But, pretending it isn't, her overly UTR edit eliminates her from Type A & AB (no complexity). Unlike Debra... there is the small possibility that she could be a Type B winner, but i think that is unlikely, Sydney is unfortunately on the team with likeables.... she currently has no one to connect with where she could win by default. This could change due to a swap or switch, but i feel like the INV she got was absolute and that does her in. NOT WINNING Taj = UTR2 • CPP4 • CP3 • CPP5* The UTR E1 eliminated her from Type A & AB. The E2 & E3 complexities eliminate her from Type B. Probably eliminated from Type C as far too complex but does have some manipulated tone. Biggest cause for concern... no winner has ever gone from an E1 UTR to an E2 CP. This is a very Cirie S16 like edit.... much like Brendan. TYPE C - still possible, though unlikely Tyson = OTTM2 • MOR3 • CPN4 • OTTM3* I don't know what to do about Tyson. His E1 rating and tone debates really cause me concern. He is definitely NOT Type B... not is he Type AB (far too visible). Type A? He gives good confessionals that show that he is thinking, but he is also being so extreme. Which is also a problem for Type C which is a more MORish edit like Stephen or JT. Is his OTT personality & class clownishness causing us to not listen to what he's saying? Maybe. Is his sarcastic nature making us think he's negative? I have a hard time separating Tyson's personality from his edit.... and as a result, i don't want to eliminate him yet. Type A maybe, Type C - maybe Winners List 1 Stephen/JT (Both solid Type C. Type C contains the most winners) 2 JT/Stephen (Both solid Type C. Type C contains the most winners) 3 Sierra (Possible Type AB, some small issues that prevent her from a True A, but could be AB like Parvati) 4 Erinn (This is so odd to me, I never had her here before... Good fit Type B, Decent fit Type C) 5 Tyson (still needs some more clarification, possible Type A or Type C, but still betrer than the following) 6 Brendan (Possible Type C, but early pattern looks like Cirie from S16) 7 Taj (Possible Type C, but early pattern looks like Cirie from S16) 8 Spencer (Possible Type B, but only because I am being generous) Eliminated Coach (Too N, 4 in a row!) Debra (INV / too UTR) Joe (Too UTR) Sydney (INV / too UTR) eta: darn tabs & yuku... tried to fix formatting, but... it's still bad, sorry Last Edited By: Phoenix1269 03/09/09 3:33 PM. Edited 1 times.
Jedijake		#1616	[-]
Posts: 5508 (03/09/09 3:26 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	TJ would have to have been a lot more developed to be a top contender. Don't get me wrong, he's not eliminated. It's just that in a world where there is as much complexity as there is, TJ just doesn't add up.
Werwanderflugen		#1617	[-]
Posts: 204 (03/09/09 3:41 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Wonderful post, Phoenix! Lots of great edgic food for thought there... I like.
Katy Carney		#1618	[-]
Posts: 4814 (03/09/09 3:42 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Kathy Fan 2 wrote: Sierra's story is being featured more (IMO) because she really is lucking into major aspects of the season. She was voted weakest in Ep 1. If it had been Erinn who was voted weakest in Ep. 1, REGARDLESS of how Erinn ultimately finished in the game, I think she'd have been featured. And not just in episode 1, but more as an underdog until she was ultimately voted out. Whether that be episode, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, whatever. They'd have pimped up that the person who was seen weakest was still around, cause it's the theme this season, IMO. I'm not saying Sierra doesn't have substance, but it makes for a great story if the underdog makes the merge and makes it far, so there's really no choice but to detail it, whether she wins or not. I don't think you can "choose" Sierra's edit given the situation. It's only complicated by her being taken into the Exile Alliance. Now they have to show her even MORE, because again she's being included in a Survivor "first." I agree, and they're also showing her the LEAST of the exile alliance, which fits both with a potential winning edit and with the fact that she is the least engaging, least interesting member of the alliance. It's a toss up in my opinion.
getting real		#1619	[-]
Posts: 1551 (03/09/09 4:24 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Chaperone asked: What's with the random Hindi, Getting Real? Just a bit of fun, Chap, trying to tap into the Edgic consciousness. नमस्ते (Namaste!)
Oowatanite		#1620	[-]
Posts: 7065 (03/09/09 4:41 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Phoenix, please tell me you're kidding that Tyson's getting an OTTM for Ep4. PLEASE !! Last Edited By: Oowatanite 03/09/09 4:48 PM. Edited 1 times.