Yuku free message boards

Green Coffee's Guideline Analysis for Episode 4

Current Episode Ratings Chart:

Guideline Charts:

Short and Sweet Version:

Type A Winners:

Top Tier

Sierra/Stephen/Erinn (Tie)

Middling:

Tyson

Brendan

Barely Hanging On:

JT

Spencer

Eliminated:

Everyone Else

Type B Winners:

Top Tier:

JT

Middling:

Spencer

Barely Hanging On:
Stephen

Erinn

Eliminated:
Everyone Else

Explanations:

All explanations exclude characters that are completely unviable. These characters have been eliminated by virtually everyone. These characters are: Coach, Joe, Sydney, Debbie

Universal Guidelines:

U1: The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season

Looking Good So Far: All Viable Contenders

U2: The winner will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1 and will probably make some strong impression early in the episode in the form of a confessional.

Meets Guideline: Sierra, Stephen, Erinn, Tyson

Few would debate these placings. This is why these 4 remain strong on most winner lists.

Partially Meets Guideline: Brendan, JT, Spencer, Taj

All had sufficient Vis, but few cite them as having an impactful episode 1. Some would argue that Brendan violates this guideline completely.

U3: The winner will have at least some significant editing in the merge and possibly any swap episodes that may occur.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: All Viable Contenders

U4: The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: All Viable Contenders

The Exile Crew is getting close to violating this, as the average viewer probably expects them to be the final 4. However, just because all 4 won't make it, I can't say this is too detrimental to any single edit.

Overall Universal Guideline Prognosis:

Of the 8 viable characters, Sierra/Stephen/Erinn/Tyson have the clear advantage here. Most of this, however, is based off of Episode 1. Should a swap happen or should the Exile 4 be shown as too dominant and a lock to win, the field opens up a bit.

Universal guidelines are important to both Type A and Type B edits. Thus, these guidelines must be considered in conjunction with the Type A/B guidelines as well.

Type A Guidelines:

A1: The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT.

So Far so Good: Sierra, Stephen, Erinn, Brendan, JT, Spencer, Taj

Spencer is getting close to trouble, but he has a few MORs in there.

Not Good So Far: Tyson

Tyson is getting a bit OTT. Half of his episodes are OTT in my estimation and one of the others was debated.

A2: The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches.

So Far so Good: Sierra, Stephen, Erinn, Tyson, Brendan, JT, Taj

All of these characters are getting meaningful screentime consistently.

Violates Guideline: Spencer

Has had virtually no major personal development. Primarily a narrator or UTR.

A3: Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative.

So Far so Good: Sierra, Stephen, Erinn, Brendan, Spencer, Taj

No major tonal leans one way or the other from my perspective.

Not Good So Far: Tyson

Starting to get pretty N and there hasn't been much P to even it out.

Violates Guideline: JT

Has been P in virtually all of his screentime. Comparisons to Rupert even came in during episode 4. It does not appear that he will be getting much of a balanced hand, here.

A4: MOR Differential

I do not use the MOR differential.

A5: Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe.

My measuring stick here is whether or not a character is appearing to be an obvious distraction (in terms of violations). If a player has complex or distracting characters near them, they are looking good.

So Far so Good: Sierra, Stephen, Erinn, JT, Spencer

The Timbira's have Coach, Tyson, and Brendan taking up a lot of story and screentime. The Jalapao's have Taj (and up to this episode, had Sandy). However, the Timbira's have a slight edge here, with more tribal complexity and more distracting characters.

Not Good So Far: Tyson, Brendan

Tyson is getting villainous, which may be a sign of being a distraction. Brendan's story spike after a weak episode 1 may be a sign of distraction as well. I am, however, tentative in these suspicions.

Violates Guideline: Taj

Sucking up a huge amount of screentime after a soft episode 1. Taking over the story and is the most visible and major member of the exile alliance. Needs a cooldown that does not appear to be coming soon.

A6: The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: All Viable Contenders

Too early to get into this, I think. The Tyson/Erinn thing might be of this sort, but not sure yet.

Overall Type A Guideline Prognosis:

I am eliminating Taj as a Type A contender at this point. She is becoming what I see as an obvious distraction and the preview clearly indicates that this will not let up in episode 5. While she isn't violating other guidelines, this is something that is VERY un-winner like.

JT and Spencer are not looking good, either. However, I have not eliminated them yet because I think there may yet be some room for a turnaround. JT could easily turn N soon enough and start evening out. Spencer, while looking really empty overall, HAS had a few small strategic comments and a small amount of personal definition. He's handing by an absolute thread, though, and needs the next episode to be a major one to keep him alive.

Brendan's episode 1 weakens him considerably. He is borderline eliminated by his low visibility and had what some debate as a meaningless SPV confessional (although I think it also tells us something about him as a character - he doesn't buy Coach's crap). However, although he may end up as a distraction like Taj, I am not ready to axe him just yet. Close, but not worth dropping 100%.

Tyson is falling back a bit. His episode 1 is what is keeping him in this (the opposite of Brendan). He is starting to trend toward nasty Fairplay-esque character territory. He could easily be a negative distracting villain. He could also be the next Brian. I'm going to wait and see if his ratings even out (an UTRP would ease concerns considerably).

Sierra, Stephen, and Erinn have matching sets of guidelines to this point. All of them are also high on a lot of winner lists. I think it's all warranted. None of them are violating any guidelines and they even have one of them in the bag.

I rank them as winners as I have throughout (Sierra, Stephen, Erinn).

Sierra is the classic winner edit. She fits all of the pieces just right. She gets the strategy where she needs it, the cooldowns where they belong, some P tone but not a ton of it, a connection to the story, doubt, etc. She might fall apart eventually, but I think the only thing holding her back in a lot of minds is the fact that she doesn't have a penis.

Stephen, in my mind, is a little flat. Some strategy, yes. Lots of MOR narration, though. Also, everyone was talking about how weak his episode 1 was until after episode 2 where he shot straight up. Looking back, it WASN'T all that great compared to the first episodes of Sierra and Erinn and he actually DID go to tribal council.

Erinn, again, has a very odd and unique edit to me. And as I've said a few times, odd is not a good thing in terms of fitting a character into a winner pattern. We'll see how it goes from here, but I'm still ranking her as slightly lower than Sierra and Stephen.

Type B Guidelines:

B1: The winner will likely be edited to be more positive than negative.
Meets Guideline: JT

While it makes him weak in terms of a Type A win, this is exactly what JT needs for Type B.

So Far so Good: Stephen, Sierra, Brendan, Taj

Each of these players has gotten some P tone, but not more than an episode or two.

Violates Guideline: Tyson

No Type B winner has ever gotten an N. He's gotten 2 now.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: Spencer, Erinn

I've had them as toneless so far. If the next episode rolls around and we don't see anything from them, I'm going to start seeing that as bad for their Type B chances.

B2: The winner may have long stretches where they appear to be ignored or underutilized, but they will never be completely absent.

So Far so Good: Spencer

Pretty low key without being INV ever.

Not Good So Far: Erinn, Sierra, Brendan

A bit too present in each episode for this to fit well.

Violates Guideline: Tyson, Taj

About as far from low key as possible.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: JT, Stephen

I'm sort of unsure on these guys. Are they being hidden and low key as compared what we could be seeing? Or is this all these guys have given them? At this point, I think this is about to become a weak point for Stephen and a positive for JT if trends continue.

B3: The winner will have a substantially stronger postmerge.
Cannot Yet Be Determined: All Viable Contenders

B4: The winner will be surrounded by many distractions, some of which will be strong Type A candidates that have flaws in their edits.
Violates Guideline: Taj

Taj is distraction numero uno, so she can't really be surrounded by them.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: JT, Spencer, Stephen, Erinn, Sierra, Brendan, Tyson

I'm withholding judgment on most of these for now, although Brendan and Tyson are getting close because they're looking like distractions, themselves. Players will start looking good here once if we have a bunch of flawed A's that appear later.

B5: The winner's story is one that would not easily be told by using a Type A edit, usually due to some sort of constraints due to the player who won.
I operationalize this as whether or not it seems like the player could have been shown as your standard competent strategic winner.

Not Good So Far: Stephen, Sierra, Brendan, Tyson, Taj

All of these people have displayed some degree of strategic thinking/involvement. I get the sense that these people could be made into Type A winners if the editors wanted to.

Cannot Yet Be Determined: JT, Spencer, Erinn

Not much strategy here from any of them. It's POSSIBLE that these people stumble to a win with little strategic involvement.

B6: The winner will have fewer CP episodes and much less strategic focus than a Type A winner's edit typically would.

The operationalization here is whether or not the player has a CP so far. The more they have, the worse their chances.

So Far so Good: JT, Spencer

No CPs.

Not Good So Far: Stephen, Erinn, Sierra, Brendan, Tyson

They've all got CPs on my chart, but none have so many that they would violate this, IMO.

Overall Type B Guideline Prognosis:

Sierra, Brendan, Taj, and Tyson are eliminated from Type B consideration. Tyson is the least likely B winner of the 8 viable players. Too N and too present. Taj looks bad as well, with her ever-present and too distracting edit. Sierra and Brendan are also eliminated from Type B contention because all they have is a little bit of P tone, whereas they are looking bad on almost all of the guidelines.

Erinn looks bad on a couple of dimensions and doesn't look good on any of them. She hasn't started falling on B5 yet, which I consider a pretty important guideline. She's hanging by a thread.

Stephen doesn't look good either. He's got some P tone, but I think he could easily be edited as a Type A winner if he won, meaning this is unlikely for him.

Spencer is okay, I guess. He's low key and hidden without much game or complexity. However, he needs some P tone soon, though.

JT is the Type B frontrunner. P toned without much complexity or gamesmanship. However, he's still a little too present at times and needs a bit of a cooldown to really fit that UTR mold.

-------

Overall, I'd say this year has a Type A winner, although we shouldn't slam the door on JT/Spencer just yet. They're worth considering until they no longer fit the Type B mold themselves (which could happen). Their stock would rise a ton if all of the Type A's fell out of contention.

Again, I still see Sierra as a Type A frontrunner. The reasons I gave above for Type A rationale notwithstanding, I find it interesting that Sierra definitely does not fit a Type B edit, yet Stephen/Erinn could be argued as fitting either paradigm (albeit loosely). A winner edit should be defined within one of the two paradigms (primarily Type A). The fact that Stephen/Erinn aren't yet eliminated from a Type B perspective makes me question their chances a little more than Sierra at this point.

(Apologies for the formatting. Apparently Yuku and the Tab button are not friends)