BlakeB717 wrote:I totally agree she's below Sierra on the winners list. But to say she's not a top contender, in my opinion, doesn't make sense because she does fit several criteria of a winner, certainly better than anyone on Jalapao and most of Timbira.
The people hazed by fandom are the ones who have her as #1, is what I'm saying, because there is just no way her edit is better than Sierra's.
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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins
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 chapera rocks |
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Posts: 10514 (03/06/09 2:07 AM) Registered User |
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BlakeB717 |
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Posts: 1400 (03/06/09 2:10 AM) Registered user |
In all honesty, I don't think there are 'top contenders". There are just contenders, now that we can probably eliminate all but 4 or 5 people?
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chapera rocks |
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Posts: 10515 (03/06/09 2:10 AM) Registered User |
BlakeB717 wrote:See above post. I have said, I put Sierra #1, Erinn #2, Tyson #3. And UTR2 UTR2 doesn't eliminate since a couple winners have had it #1, and #2, she didn't have a "bad" UTR. Episode 1, she had an opening confessional, as well as an intro to herself when she really didn't have to have anything. Episode 2, she had some weird focus that I guess was to set up her storyline for episode 3 and 4. |
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AbbyGirl |
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Posts: 27 (03/06/09 2:14 AM) |
Wow, that was a great episode! I really like most of these people, a few are not really there at all (Sydney/Joe/Spencer) so I'm guessing they don't
matter in the end game. A few are great villains (Coach/Tyson) who we know won't win but are fun to watch. And the first ever cross over alliance, I love
it! I hope it works, even if it doesn't it is changing the game and making it more interesting.
I am not the best at ratings, but of course Coach and Tyson were negative. Coach looked a bit silly saying he would be the best leader and was obviously stronger than Brendan....huh? I don't think so! I would like to see Coach hold up over two hundred pounds like Brendan did, I think Coach is probably jealous of Brendan right now and will want to get him out soon. Doubt for the winner? Maybe.... Sierra and Brendan both got what they needed to stay in as winner contenders, I am not going to pay attention to anyone that says Brendan is too boring to win or Sierra's edit is too perfect. Until one of them leaves they stay on my winner's list. I think their alliance will last, but if anyone double crosses the other I have a feeling it will be Sierra doing it to Brendan. He will stay loyal to her as long as he's there, and if she wins I think she will owe it to him. The final TC comes to mind with those two, questions from the jury: "Why should I give you the million dollars?" Sierra: "Well, I guess because I was voted off and considered weak the very first day, but then I worked really hard and managed to stay in the game." Brendan: " I worked hard as well, I took on the role of the leader when it could have gotten me voted out. I stuck to my alliance and played the game as honestly as I could". Jury question: "Why are you here, why play the game of Survivor?" Sierra: "I thought it would be a good experience, and I guess I really wanted to win a million dollars, anyone would". Brendan: "I agree with Sierra in that I wanted to experience Survivor, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity. But unlike Sierra, I am not here for the money, I just love the game of Survivor. I have enjoyed every minute of it with you people, and I'm honored to be sitting here with Sierra". That would tie up the playing for the money and playing for the love of the game comments in a neat little package. How would the jury vote? That's the real question! Tyson is out of it after tonight, he was pretty negative. Erinn is almost out of it, would they show the winner picking her nose? I kind of doubt it. JT needed more in tonight's episode, I really didn't get much substance from him. It's like no one really matters on the red tribe except Taj and Stephen. Sandy got time because she was voted out, Sydney because she was the other boot choice. I was surprised to see Sandy go, I pegged her for early jury. And why did Taj vote for Joe? Does she dislike him that much? Are we missing something? To be continued.... Winner's chances: Sierra 30% Stephen 25% Brendan25% Taj 10% Erinn 10% Everyone else 0% |
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Katy Carney |
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Posts: 4774 (03/06/09 2:18 AM) |
I feel strongly that Taj is not a winner. Her visibility is off the charts. I think she's a big distracting premerge boot a la Ace or Tracy, or best case
scenario she's a late game distraction a la Cirie.
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BlakeB717 |
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Posts: 1401 (03/06/09 2:29 AM) Registered user |
Amber is the only winner to be UTR in the first two episodes and she had positively toned UTRs.
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I LUV TIJUANA |
Episode Four | ||
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Posts: 12256 (03/06/09 2:44 AM) Registered user |
JALAPAO
(I've realized there's much more tone on Timbira, just an observation.) Joe- UTR2 JT- CP3 - He wasn't very complex, but I suppose that one confessional where he appeared conflicted is enough. I suppose a P wouldn't be completely undeserved. Sandy- CP4 - Not sure where anyone is getting a N from. Spencer- UTR2 - I think MOR is debatable, but all he did was narrate. Stephen- MOR3 Sydney- MORN3 - I am somewhat flexible with the N, it wasn't particularly overt. Taj- CP5- I could see a P, I suppose. TIMBIRA (I'm fairly certain this is the "complex tribe.") Ben- MORN3 Brendan- MOR2 - I saw a few P's, but I don't think there was enough of anything to warrant it. A good cool down episode. Debbie- UTR2 Erinn- CPP3 - The most complex this week, complexity is not about strategy it's about getting more insight about a person and why they behave the way they do. For her, we got some reasons for why she's in this poor position she's in. Enough sympathy for a P, definitely. Sierra- UTRP2 - I don't think her comment was complex enough for a CP personally. Tyson- OTTN3 - Definitely OTT and definitely negative. No room for debate, in my opinion. |
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chapera rocks |
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Posts: 10516 (03/06/09 2:47 AM) Registered User |
Yeah, so Amber had a P (I've rewatched the first ASS ep since and its a very weak, if even existent P). Erinn had UTR with some substance, which Amber
didn't really have those first two eps.
Also, edgic for Thailand/Amazon is all screwed up ... Brian was definitely UTR episode 1, and possibly episode 2. Danni, again would be arguable UTR for episode 2 ... she had one confessional about Gary being in the NFL. And Aras was low key, borderline MOR/UTR. |
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chaperone |
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Posts: 2599 (03/06/09 2:56 AM) Registered User |
I'm in Stephen's corner. Taj gets the visibility but it's all for him. He's been present, commenting on his place in the game, part of the
only known alliance in the game though is the 4th member of it in some ways, as far as we see.
I see the Sierra support too, but not the Erin. I see her edit as the doesn't-fit-in-awkward-I'll probably quit sometime in the next 2 episodes sorta edit. It's not a winner's edit. Who else? Brendan - I wouldn't eliminate him JT - No too MOR, wouldn't completely eliminate him Coach - No too OTT Joe - No too UTR2 Erinn - No, no place in this game except melancholy Taj - front and center, not our winner (why is she front and center? For Stephen...) Tyson - he's a character/commentator with no strategic contribution to the game Spencer - no Debra - no Sydney - no |
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craig |
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Posts: 15108 (03/06/09 3:07 AM) Registered User |
Remember, Erinn's UTR2's in ep.1-2 were both borderline MOR, and were debated. She got opening quotes which is the most improtant thing in ep.1. And no
other edgic contenders except Sierra had more than Vis 2. Only my close call vote saved BrendaN from a 1, and Stephen was only 2 despite going to TC.
Erinn's Vis 4 when she became decoy boot in ep.3 matches Sierra in ep.2. And the amount of visibility Erinn got tonight was very impressive for a non-TC episode. Last season Corinne had the quotes about game and winning, while Bob missing his family was highlighted. But look who won? So having Erinn identifed as a hairstylist who is getting over a divorce shouldn't be dismissed. It's not like Erinn has any fancy alliances to talk about at this point. Most of the Erinn support is just for her to be 2nd or 3rd choice, and by making an issue of Erinn's edgic respectability, all you are doing Blake is goading people to stating the case for her. |
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dcsurvivor |
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Posts: 240 (03/06/09 5:41 AM) Registered User |
JT: CP. I'm going to champion JT, not because I think he's got the best edit so far, but because I think he has the most overlooked edit.
People are skipping over him for Tyson/Erinn/Sierra/Stephen/Taj/Brendan, all of whom have been big game players. Well, JT has a strong intro episode and here
we got his thoughts on everything as well. I'm going to definitely go back and look at this edit closely, but off the top of my head he explained his
reasoning for getting beans/water can and was one of the few to be shown weighing his vote choice and the reasoning behind it. He seems to be garnering quite a
few "P"s but I really just don't see it. He was mentioned for carrying lots of weight in the reward challenge (but that had to be shown and was
obvious to all, not really editorialized "P") and I think he muttered "Escape the vote" during the immunity challenge (not subtitled, no
comment from any other tribe members/Probst about him figuring something out), but other than that he didn't really get any "P" SPV or focus in
the tribal scenes.
I agree with this ten fold........I think JT is being overlooked as a major contender........there is something about the way the camera focuses on him and there seems to be this calming effect when he speaks........in a way, he reminds me of Aras........I think Stephen, in some way, is a catalyst for JT's story........will he convince the other members of the exile alliance to dump Taj and include JT in the alliance? I just can't help feeling that JT and Stephen are important to the end game. I see the argument for Sierra however, it seems heavily manipulated to me. Sort of like Sugar was last season. I am not convinced she is the winner, but her chances are very good that she will make it to end. I am totally baffled by Erinn's edit. It seems like another manipulated edit, but I am not sure why. She really doesn;t appear to offer much to the tribe. She is an outcast and she is not doing much about it. She sort of reminds me of Candace in Cook Islands. The other thing about Erinn is that I formed impressions about all of the other players early on, except for her. I am not sure I even like her. I think her edit is awkward.......to me, as awkward as her crying in that one confessional. Were we supposed to feel bad for her? We know very little about her or her desire to win, so to me it was strange,,and I felt a little awkward watching it..........but, she could also be a contender........ I view Tyson and Coach as big characters that warrant a lot of screen time, but I don't see a winners edit in either of them...... Therefore.......... Winners JT Sierra Stephen Possible Erinn Taj Brendan Everyone else is eliminated........... |
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Mega64 |
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Posts: 9717 (03/06/09 7:18 AM) Registered User |
Blake, I agree with you a lot of the time, and I even agree with you about biases interfering at times with ratings, but at the same time you're letting
your bias against the people you view as biased get the better of you. I doubt Erinn wins as well, but if it turns out Sierra's a distraction, then Erinn
has the best legs left to win. I really don't think anyone else has enough depth in their edits to win, whether it's Stephen, JT, Brendan, Taj, or
whoever. The Erinn fans do bring up valid arguments, and while I disagree with them, I'm not gonna rule them out completely and chalk them up to bias.
Just cool down and try not to be so overbearing to people you disagree with.
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Jedijake |
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Posts: 5488 (03/06/09 7:43 AM) MESS member |
Erinn could be manipulated to be the next Sugar with her emotional story and everything.
Sierra probably could have been that way, but they are holding back (while forcing her down our throats-kinda a weird little balance there). We are actually seeing journeys of females. It's kinda nice to see. In other seasons we were lucky to see one female "journey" (pretty much only Cirie and Steph-Palau that I can recall). Sierra, Erinn, and Taj all seem to have journeys going on, not that those can completely determine longevity. The guys with bigger stories this season seem to be more there to reinforce the pathways that the above mentioned females are taking. Oh, and I can see Stephen as a possibility, but I REALLY don't see him in the top 3 choices. To me, he STILL doesn't have the complexity, depth, and airtime that is needed at this point. He needed to have one much bigger episode in my opinion. He's kinda flat to me. He seems like Rafe from Guatemala-someone many of us thought had a good chance of winning but still didn't have enough to make it clear or truly viable.
Last Edited By: Jedijake
03/06/09 7:46 AM.
Edited 1 times.
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getting real |
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Posts: 1536 (03/06/09 8:02 AM) Registered User |
To the people doubting Erinn's chances of making the merge, I say it could just as easily be Sierra out next. There's a far greater chance of the following taking place: a) Coach being edited as confessing to everyone that he's an obsessive-compulsive megalomaniacal bulshit artist; b) OO admitting Erinn has no chance of winning; c) hell freezing over.... ****** Editors having fun with what people give them: Sandy's advice for Sydney: "You're better be pulling off more than a bra; you're better be pulling some panties off or something..." Probst's plea to the same person, pre-challenge: "Give it up, Sydney!" 
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tullfan2 |
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Posts: 3186 (03/06/09 8:56 AM) Registered User |
Last night's episode confirmed that Erinn makes it deep in the game and is a person that the viewers will end up rooting for. Much like Kathy in
Marquesas, we are being shown Erinn's emotional development and also, just like Kathy, she has no allies. Like Kathy, Erinn could serve as an important
swing vote after the merger. I see the competing alliances being Coach/Tyson/Debbie vs, Brandon/Sierra/Stephen. I think that Taj will get herself voted out
at some point.
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9RedWing19 |
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Posts: 2463 (03/06/09 9:03 AM) Registered User |
Revisiting the "first impressions" sequence of Ep 1 now that we are 4 episodes in (doing this from memory, so please excuse me if my recollections
aren't 100% accurate).
The Tyson/Erinn portion looks to be foreshadowing of a story line. I don't believe that we've heard any further comments by Erinn on Tyson; given Tyson's subsequent comments, it screams out to me that eventually Erinn will play a part in Tyson's boot. Whether or not this is important to the end game, or more along the lines of Crystal/Randy remains to be seen - my sense is it will be the latter. The Sandy/Stephen portion has now played out. Sandy could not control Stephen and got booted. Stephen was indirectly right that having Sandy around meant that he would not be the first boot. So Stephen was right in this first impression (though wrong in his first impression of JT). The Sierra/Benjamin portion is still ongoing, though obviously Benjamin was wrong thinking that Sierra would have to be the first to go (foreshadowing that he would be shown to be wrong in most things ????). |
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AndreSurvivor |
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Posts: 381 (03/06/09 9:26 AM) |
BlakeB717 wrote:People will play favorites. It is inevitable. |
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gretchensucks |
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Posts: 669 (03/06/09 9:30 AM) |
I think it's funny how many people are rating Erinn as positive and are not rating Taj as positive...especially after Taj made an awesome
show of sportsmanship by congratulating Debbie after the challenge. All Erinn had has a sob story. Both are arguably positive, but Taj was CLEARLY more so.
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Warrior |
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Posts: 2832 (03/06/09 9:45 AM) Registered User |
AndreSurvivor wrote: His name was not subtitled...I counted it as 3 sentences. |
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xfactor99 |
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Posts: 223 (03/06/09 10:05 AM) Registered User |
chapera rocks wrote:Maraamu was the complex tribe in Marquesas? That's not what I remember at all.... |
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