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From Dr. Jeff Masters at wunderground.com

Impact on the west coast of Florida
The west coast of Florida will take the full brunt of Fay's fury early Tuesday morning. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the computer models have finally come into agreement on a landfall, with their 8 am EDT runs. The consensus is that landfall will be in Southwest Florida, between Marco Island and Fort Myers. Marco Island is my guess of a landfall location given the trend of Fay to track to the right of the forecast. With Fay's expected track nearly parallel to the shore, though, a slight deviation in the path will result in a large change in where the eye comes ashore. Storm surge will be a major concern to the region just to the right of where the center comes ashore. For the Naples region, a Category 1 hurricane can generate storm surges of 4-8 feet (Figure 2). Both the GFDL and HWRF models are forecasting a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80-90 mph at landfall. Fay does not have time to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane before a landfall in Southwest Florida. If Fay follows a track further north and makes landfall near Tampa Bay, as the NOGAPS model predicts, there is a 10% chance it couuld intensify into a Category 3 hurricane.