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I rewatched all episodes to get a closer look on the last four players.
Check out this overview of all missions. I've added the amount of money I feel the player contributed too, or kept from, the pot.
Offcourse this is highly debatable. Still it should give some insight which player is the most (un-)likely mole.
Apart from the money, you'll find short statements in this overview on the behaviour of the player.

Nicole
1. Over the falls: Nicole gets the bag, but it's worthless (0)
1. Crusoe: Nicole is side-tracked and has no real influence on the outcome. Although she chooses the teams. (+15.000)
2. Soccer: Bad goalkeeping. Uphill: Not shown att all!
2. Pigs: Her group finds a lot of pigs (24, thx to Spanish speaking Alex). She also helps with catapult.
3. Fruit: Got 1 out of 7 with Alex (+2.000), but it this seems to be Alex his fault (the double green apple).
3. Find clothes: Finds her clothes first and her team succeeds (+5.000)
4. Midas Rush: Takes only 4 bricks! Her team has quick start, but Nicolle is soon very slow. She doesn't influence the heavy/light scale choice, where a mole could leave the heavy one to the allready slow team. They make it (+1.000)
4. Who said it?: She got it wrong (-2.000) and she sabotaged (cough) Kristens question (-2.000)
5. All for one: Nicole leaves fifth and took the key.
5. Travellers: She refuses the lama-challenge, when the others do too. (-10.000)
6. Grapes of cash: Is a thinker with Craig. Q1: Got it wrong. It's Mark that solves it. Q2: No input. Q3: Only thinks, Marks solves it. Q4: Quesses the answer (correct). (+10.000) Q5: No input, Mark solves it (correct). Q6: She wants a wrong answer, but Mark solves it. (correct) Q7: Thinks out loud, and gives wrong answer. Finally Mark solves it.
6. Swing out: Jumps last and misses the target (0)
7. Go figure: She corrects Craigs faults but they got the fifth number wrong. She miscounts several times at the mosaic. She goes back, and returns with another wrong number!
7. Ticket to ride: Nicolle memorises Clays question flawlessly (+10.000). She also sees her mother (+10.000).

Grand total: + 39.000

Paul
1. Over the falls: Paul misses the bag by an inch (-10.000)
1. Crusoe: As timekeeper he is complaining it's hard work. Still he gives the appraisers enough time to get 3 out of 3 items correct (since the other 2 were not scavenged). (+15.000)
2. Soccer: Lies down on grass, coughing. Uphill: Stays with overheating Liz.
2. Pigs: Breaks the pig (exemption) (-1.000). Catches several pigs (28 out of 42).
3. Fruit:. It's Paul who puts the fruit in order. He got 5 out of 7 with Ali (+10.000)
3. Find clothes: Succeeds with Bobby (+5.000)
4. Midas Rush: Takes 12? bricks. Walks with slow Craig. Has bricks in hands & backpack. They make it just in time (+3.000)
4. Who said it?: Got it wrong (-2.000)
5. All for one: Paul leaves third and took the key.
5. Travellers: He doesn't want to be an ass in an ass, and opts out. (-10.000)
6. Grapes of cash: Is the communicator. Skips several answers and let the runners run to bottle #7. They complain they have to run back and forth through the vineyard. He irritates Nicolle at the chalkboard. And he screwed up a "1" and a "0". (+ 35.000, because both 0 and 70.000 wouldn't be fair)
6. Swing out: Jumps second and misses the target (0)
7. Go figure: Doesn't take sides in discussion on answer 1, in which Clay is miscalculating the subtraction. Paul has the map, and they get lost on location #3. Still they make it on time, and entered 3 correct numbers.
7. Ticket to ride: Paul sees his wife and daughter (+10.000), eventhough he skips the first 3 answers.

Grand total: + 56.000 (Note: The Grapes of Cash weighs heavily on this!)

Craig
1. Over the falls: Craig misses. (-10.000)
1. Crusoe: He walks slowly accross the beach. Isn't seen with any object apart from the mole sign. Since Marcie brought 2 of the three winning items he get's +5.000 (instead of 15000)
2. Soccer: Scores in own goal. And he walks slowly uphill (confirmed by Clay)
2. Pigs: Craig's runs even slower than Kristen with Bobby in a wheelbarrel. Kristen complains: "Am I the only one looking for Pigs?". His team finds no pigs at all. But he does help with catapult, and is succesfull at it (28, that's 2/3).
3. Fruit: No money because he's talking after the finish with Victoria (+0)
3. Find clothes: Fails to get clothes off the street, but he finds laundrymat! Succeeds with Nicolle (+5.000)
4. Midas Rush: Takes 8 bricks. They make it just in time (+2.000). Is taken away with an ambulance!
4. Who said it?: Craig didn't participate.
5. All for one: Get's free first. And has no influence on the outcome!
5. Travellers: Get's to choose the transportation methods because he said "Excemption" at breakfast. He humiliated the other players with his transportation choices. He gets the exemption (-30.000).
6. Grapes of cash: Is a thinker with Nicole. Q1: No input/Not seen. Q2:Solves it (correct).(+10.000) Q3: Only thinks, Marks solves it. Q4: No input, only thinks. Q5: No input, Mark solves it. Q6: No input, only thinks. Q7: Followes Nicolle thinking.
6. Swing out: Jumps third, with a super scream, and misses the target (0)
7. Go figure: First two answers are flawless. Confuses Nicole on answer 3, but she's focussed! Finally it's Craig who enters 233. But even in the last second he suggests 231.
7. Ticket to ride: Answers his own question correctly, because Clay succeeds. Clay does complain Craig is slow. (+10.000)

Grand total: - 10.000

Mark
1. Over the falls: Marks jumps for a bag with money (+10.000)
1. Crusoe: He's seems responsible of getting all three correct objects on the table. The other two were still somewhere on the beach. (+15.000)
2. Uphill with bike: -35.000 (exemption), doesn't take the taxi bribe +5.000
2. Pigs: He's running fast at the start. Complains that no one speaks english. Suggest they take the left side of the street. His team get's lost and they are the last ones back, but with a decent amount off pigs (18). Marks doesn't help with the catapult.
3. Fruit: Gets 7 out of 7 with Kristen (+14.000)
3. Find clothes: Refuses the mission, after Clay drops out first. (-5.000)
4. Midas Rush: Takes 11? bricks, but leaves 4 bricks behind (-1.000). They make it just in time (+1.750=>2.000)
4. Who said it?: Got it right (+2.000)
5. All for one: Mark is the last to get out. But didn't sabotage. Other expected him to though!
5. Travellers: Mark complains it's not possible. That it's even hard by just running the distance. (-10.000)
6. Grapes of cash: Is the tredmill runner. Succeeds in running and solves 5 puzzles (+70.000)
6. Swing out: Jumps first and misses the target (0)
7. Go figure: Q1: Got the correct answer, and refuses Clays wrong answer! He also appears to solve Q2.
7. Ticket to ride: Mark asks questions slowly to Nicolle, but she sees her mother (+10.000). He sees his wife (+10.000). Finally he gives the correct answers for Paul (+10.000)

Grand total: + 97.000 (Note: The Grapes of Cash and Ticket to ride weigh heavily on this!)

Recap of the totals:
Mark: + 97.000
Paul: + 56.000
Nicole: + 39.000
Craig: - 10.000

It's no surprise I'm an CraigFOMO. But based on the sneaky (and sometimes blunt) way Paul seems to influence the game he's a close alternative. Paul's total of 56.000 is hard to appreciate because I had to put an amount on his name for the Grape-mission. The 35.000 there is highly debatable, I know.
Mark is out and Nicole is almost out of my mind.

brafish wrote:

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Craig
1. Over the falls: Craig misses. (-10.000)
1. Crusoe: He walks slowly accross the beach. Isn't seen with any object apart from the mole sign. Since Marcie brought 2 of the three winning items he get's +5.000 (instead of 15000)
2. Soccer: Scores in own goal. And he walks slowly uphill (confirmed by Clay)
2. Pigs: Craig's runs even slower than Kristen with Bobby in a wheelbarrel. Kristen complains: "Am I the only one looking for Pigs?". His team finds no pigs at all. But he does help with catapult, and is succesfull at it (28, that's 2/3). He has to get some credit here for setting the catapult correctly +14,000 at least 2
3. Fruit: No money because he's talking after the finish with Victoria (+0)
3. Find clothes: Fails to get clothes off the street, but he finds laundrymat! Succeeds with Nicolle (+5.000) He finds Bobby's clothes too, and had everyone else's clothes with them, so theoretically anyone who didn't have their clothes could have got them from him too. +10,000
4. Midas Rush: Takes 8 bricks. They make it just in time (+2.000). Is taken away with an ambulance!
4. Who said it?: Craig didn't participate.
5. All for one: Get's free first. And has no influence on the outcome!
5. Travellers: Get's to choose the transportation methods because he said "Excemption" at breakfast. He humiliated the other players with his transportation choices. He gets the excemption (-30.000). How can you give him more credit for failure than the people that didn't even try? -10,000
6. Grapes of cash: Is a thinker with Nicole. Q1: No input/Not seen. Q2:Solves it (correct).(+10.000) Q3: Only thinks, Marks solves it. Q4: No input, only thinks. Q5: No input, Mark solves it. Q6: No input, only thinks. Q7: Followes Nicolle thinking.
6. Swing out: Jumps third, with a super scream, and misses the target (0)
7. Go figure: First two answers are flawless. Confuses Nicole on answer 3, but she's focussed! Finally it's Craig who enters 233. But even in the last second he suggests 231.
7. Ticket to ride: Answers his own question correctly, because Clay succeeds. Clay does complain Craig is slow. (+10.000)

Grand total: - 10.000 +31,000

@2. Pigs: None of the players get any money added or substracted for this mission from me. Because it's a matter of opinion of the viewer. I only stated he didn't get any pigs, but did help succesfully with the catapult. Any formula for calculating who added how much to the total score would be hard to defend. Your own opinion should be followed here.
We have to stick with the facts:
a) Craigs team didn't find any pigs
b) Nicolles team found 24 pigs
c) Marks team found 18 pigs
d) Paul caught 28 of the 42 pigs
e) Mark didn't help shooting
f) Craig helped shooting and contributed to the 28/42
g) Nicolle helped shooting and contributed to the 28/42
h) Mark got lost, and was the latest to the catapult scene, but in time for them to be able to shoot their 18 pigs.

@3. Find clothes: Your line off thinking crossed my mind. But I only added his own score, because the other two were allready dressed! So he didn't earn 10.000 for them, with his laundrymat find.

@5. Travellers: He screwed up the whole mission with his choices. The others failed only their own task (10.000 for each team). But I agree it's debatable.