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Rank The Winners!!!!!!!!

Okay. Ask and you shall receive!

The ranking was based on the old criteria with consideration of all the criticisms, suggestions, and new info. For instance, Earl's victory gave a new perspective on some of the old winning styles. A focus on results and speculation on performance in different contexts is what defines the rating. The specifics of where exactly I ranked each candidate in relation to another, is largely decided by the luck of the winner during their winning season (and loser seasons) and the perceived skill of that individual in ALL their stints

Here's the breakdown of general winner categories:

Strong F3 Competition
1. Yul = Won against 1 strong and 1 decent final competitor


Decent F2 Competition
1. Aras = Won 5-2 against a competitor who backstabbed too many people and didn't do enough work around camp
2. Vecepia = Won 4-3against a decent competitor who'd happened to piss off more jury members than V did
3. Hatch = Won 4-3 against an alpha female who should've connected better to the young jury. Also, had subtle control over decision to be brought to finals
4. Tina = Won 4-3 against a fairly respected alpha male. Ranked lower than Hatch, because Colby made a bad decision, whereas Kelly made the right choice to bring Hatch


Goat-Takers
1. Earl = King of goat-takers. Flawless victory over 2 different types of goats. This is how you do it
2. Danni = 6-1 victory over a good player
3. Chris = 5-2 victory over an abrasive player
4. Tom = A 6-1 victory over a do-nothing
5. Jenna = 6-1 victory over a nice, hard-working guy who lacked social skills
6. Heidik = 4-3 victory over a do-nothing


Goat-Taken
1. Sandra = 6-1 victory over an Outcast
2. Amber = 4-3 victory over bad cop ASS dominator
3. Ethan = 5-2 victory a do-nothing


Still reading this shit? Wow. Good job.

Here's a summary of an ASS analysis:

Borneo Hatch = #1 ASS Hatch = #14
Outback Tina = #1 ASS Tina = #18
Africa Ethan = #1 ASS Ethan = #11
Amazon Jenna = #1 ASS Jenna = #16
Outback Amber = #6 ASS Amber = #1

Most Lucky-Least Lucky On Rookie Season
1. Ethan
2. Tina
3. Jenna
4. Amber
5. Hatch

Most Lucky-Least Lucky On ASS Season
1. Amber
2. Ethan
3. Hatch
4. Jenna
5. Tina

SOME NOTES
* ASS Tina had the worst luck of any winner in any season
* All the ASS winners had worse luck than any of the winners from rookie seasons. However, ASS Ethan's luck falls around the same level as Sandra's (who had the worst luck of all the rookie season winners)
* Jenna's ASS finish doesn't count against her at all, since she quit the game under reasonable circumstances
* At that point in the game, she seemed to be doing fairly well, and it was likely she'd outlast both Hatch and Ethan
* Morasca's quitting was probably bad luck for Hatch. Not sure if it was good luck or bad luck for Ethan


The main factors I used in determining the ranking was:
(1) How much the winners dictated their own victory, and how much did they luck out?
(2) What type of competition the winners had
(3) If they did All-Stars, I assessed their performance on both seasons

Generally speaking, the winners of the latest seasons have had the most competition. Naturally, most contestants are familiar with past seasons, so everyone is pretty smart now. Contestants of earlier seasons, obviously were much more naïve. This isn’t to take away from the victories of early winners like Richard and Tina. Hatch was a genius for his time, and deserves respect for the mark he made on the game. However, as All-Stars demonstrated, once everyone had gotten smarter, the winners weren’t anything special and couldn’t compete against modern threats. Since this is a comparison BETWEEN different seasons, we’re forced to subject past winners to the most current and best standards right?





Disclaimer:
I don’t have all the insider info on all the seasons. I only know what the episodes showed themselves. So feel free to report any incorrect facts or conclusions I’ve made, and I’ll adjust my opinions accordingly

This ranking speculates on which winner played the best game and who could reproduce their results in multiple contexts and situations. For the most part, ranking winners is non-quantifiable and subjective based on personal winner criteria and biases. That being said, I’m going to give MY opinion based on what I believe are relatively objective standards

First off, to determine what makes the “best winner,” you have to understand what makes a contestant a winner. The following is my criteria for being a winner. If you don’t agree, that’s fine. Obviously, we automatically won’t be coming to the same conclusions. I’d still like to know your criteria though. If you do agree, we still might not come to the same conclusions, and I’d also like to know why

Most people cite things like: social game, strategy, physical prowess, game control, etc. to be the determinants of being a winner. While, I agree to an extent, I don’t think all of them are the #1 priorities. The #1 factor in determining who’s a winner is LUCK. We all hate that fact and hate to acknowledge it, but it’s true. There’s that saying: “It’s better lucky than good”. HOWEVER, the #2 factor in determining winners is the ability to manage one’s personal luck (non-luck based skill)

Winning = Luck Factor + Skill Set

Luck Factor = Bad Luck + Good Luck; game factors that are outside of the player's direct control like production, nature, etc.

Skill Set = The ability to turn neutral opportunities into good luck or bad luck with skill or lack of skill

When ranking winners, I try to determine who won mainly from skill versus who mainly won from luck. It can be tough, because sometimes winners win by lots of luck, BUT it doesn’t mean they couldn’t have won with their skills and a different adversity ratio. 1 thing I liked about All-Stars (which I know old fans hated) was that it showed me how contestants handled different contexts where many of them automatically had lots of bad luck (AKA being huge targets). None of the previous winners made it to the merge, which tells me that they didn’t have amazing skill that could overcome any and all odds. They might’ve had lots of skill, great skills, etc. but not winning skills that could thrive in any situation. Will Kirby from Big Brother demonstrated that not all winners are automatically dead coming into a game—although most times, they pretty much are

Examples of the LUCK FACTOR:
(1) The quantity and quality of your opponents
(2) Interpersonal compatibility that can’t be overcome by good social skills
(3) Tribal composition
(4) Completely new twists (i.e. Outcasts, Thailand’s mutiny, Africa’s tribal switch, etc.)
(5) Random Tie-Breakers = The Purple Rock mostly
(6) The environment one plays at (Australia vs. Cook Islands)
(7) The challenges and their timing of their appearance
(8) The timing of being sent to Exile Island to get the Hidden Immunity Idol
(9) Jury members that a contestant had absolutely no control in determining





Okay, so what skill sets make a winner?
(1) Jury Management
(A) Pre-Jury Management
(B) Final TC Jury Management
(2) Outlasting
(A) Outplaying
(B) Outwitting


You're STILL reading this shit!??!!?!?!?

(1) Jury Management
(a) #1 priority is making sure you have the majority of jury votes. Winning by a lot is nice, but isn’t necessary. Voting majority (nice to win by a lot, but all you need is majority)
(b) Most jury members have made up their mind before the final TC even begins
(c) Gameplay style—HOW you OUTPLAY, OUTWIT, OUTLAST determines jury opinion

(1A) Pre-Jury Management
(a) Your ability to determine who is on the jury. This is done by through game control
(b) Your ability to assess the future jury
(c) The way you altered your gameplay style to match the jury’s tastes
(d) The bonds you made with the jury are the parts where you can control your fate

(1B) Final Jury
The ability to sway votes at Final TC through speech or answers to jury questions. Dependent largely on one’s communication skills, psychological assessments, manipulative ability, presentation, social tact, emotional management skills, and preparation



(2) Outlasting = Making final jury (top 2 or top 3)
(a) Outlasting = Voting control
(b) Outlasting > Outwitting > Outplaying. Outwit and outplaying are ultimately less essential components than outlasting. You can win by only outlasting, but not only outwitting or only outplaying
(c) 1 thing all the winners have in common is that they OUTLASTED, not OUTPLAYED the best or OUTWITTED the best
(d) However, to outlast, you often NEED to outwit and/or outplay

(2A) Outplaying
(a) Voting numbers advantage
(b) Alliances
(c) The ability to execute one’s strategy and plans
(d) Rational decision-making
(e) Charisma
(f) Trust acquisition
(g) Coalition building
(h) Winning immunity
(i) Hidden immunity idol
(j) Working relationships
(k) Staying healthy = No bodily malfunctions or injuries
(l) Not quitting
(m) etc.

(2A) Outwitting
(a) Strategy = Game theory and number crunching
(b) Planning = Long-term and short-term; grasping opponent psychology and strategy
(c) Manipulation
(d) Persuasiveness
(e) Target formation
(f) Sandbagging = Making yourself a non-threat by throwing challenges, acting stupid, or seeming predictable by employing game integrity
(g) Flying-under-the-radar = Same as sandbagging, but actually being those things as opposed to faking it. Being so obviously weak that you’re strong basically
(h) Scapegoating
(i) Information Management = Quantity and quality of information; knowledge is power; requires working relationships, open communication, an information network, and observation skills. Also includes misinformation (i.e. lying ability, cover stories, etc.)
(j) etc.





Here's how I would define UTR vs. Goat Gameplay:

Under-The-Radar = Being considered a lesser threat in comparison to other perceived competitors, and thus not targeted for elimination as heavily as those individuals. In addition, they often have the benefit of increased support like alliances where the weak gang up to take out the strong. UTR gameplay ranges from being considered strategically invisible or a non-threat to being considered a threat but secondary to another threat

Goat = Same as UTR except this individual has little chance of winning, because they are considered the worst of the remaining merge castaways. One has a chance of winning by being UTR and 2nd-to-worst, but no chance of being the absolute worst of the merge group. This individual isn't respected for various reasons, but the major ones are:
(1) Being disliked = Usually for meanness, laziness, etc.
(2) Riding coattails = Non-proactive gameplay; lucky
(3) Game leech = Not helpful to others in survival or game
(4) Comeback player = 2nd chance contestant

Notable F2 goats include:
(1) Kim J = Sucked at challenges until the very end. Was mainly not respected, because she was perceived to be dead-weight for her tribe, and didn't take any risks leaving her fate entirely in the hands of other players despite her disadvantageous game position. She helped no one in the game strategically except the boys alliance which would never have appreciated this loyalty and voted for one another over her before her (as they did). In other words, she had horrible individual strategy in order for her to win, and screwed over other contestants while she benefited from her association with them like a leech
(2) Clay = Disliked and not respected due to his laziness, lack of social skills, and possible racism/sexism
(3) Matthew = Seen as a late game player, but distinct from Neleh, because he also lacked social skills. Many people thought he was creepy or didn't connect with him. His jury performance was also weak and wishy-washy. However, he might not be a goat, because he was a hard worker and provider for camp
(4) Lill = #1 goat due to being an Outcast and return contestant within the season. In addition, she had a disadvantage as an older women who clearly was out-of-place in the relatively younger cast. Her moralizing as a boy scout troupe leader in contrast to her self-centered gameplay and usefulness to Fairplay for the majority of the merge also infuriated the jury. She essentially gave the game to Sandra at F2 when she took her to the end over Fairplay for non-strategic, personal reasons
(5) Katie = Was mean to contestants like Janu for no strategic reason. Rode coat-tails strategically and in tribe challenges (since she sat out in most challenges and was generally just weak) and backstabbed her alliance members. Different from UTR gameplay despite being conscious of her strategy, because she really didn't have much of a chance at winning once she turned on Greg and Jenn
(6) Stephennie (in Guatemala) = Despite being a good gameplayer, had little chance of winning due to her comeback status

I understand the reasons why people dislike UTR players, but not all UTR players are equal. I differentiated the types in a hierarchy starting from those who lucked into their UTR status to those who were proactively UTR as a conscious strategy

STOP READING!!!!!!!!!!!

UTR Types

1. Underestimated
Individuals who are decent or strong players but aren't seen as threats due to opponent stupidity or lack of awareness.
They are not targeted, because they are surrounded by perceived greater threats OR they aren't targeted, because they're carried by an alliance which hasn't recognized that they are an opponent. Their UTR status is more the fault of the opponent than their own skill, but sometimes it's augmented by outside conditions. For instance, a non-F3 finisher like Amber in ASS had underestimated UTR status due to a lack of reputation. While she certainly encouraged her UTR status with her skill set, most of it came naturally due to underestimation

Examples of underestimated UTR winners:
(1) Tina
(2) Ethan
(3) Brian
(4) Amber
(5) Chris
(6) Danni
(7) Aras

All the winners have been underestimated at some point in the game, but this list reflects those who weren't targeted due primarily to poor judgment


2. Individual Immunity
Generally have the benefit of being seen as non-threatening due to some characteristic inherent to the player.
It's a paradoxical case of being strong by being "weak". Usually, the individual is frail, non-athletic, overweight, old, etc. and is considered non-threatning in challenges for individual immunity. They generally have severe early game weaknesses, but if they can overcome this phase, they have large advantages in the late-game (merge)

Examples of II UTR winners:
(1) Tina
(2) Vecepia
(3) Sandra


3. Interdependent
Submissive or reactive gameplay where one "rides" on the strategy of others in order to seem predictable, less strategic, and/or loyal. Often labeled, "riding coat-tails,"
because people want to separate players into discrete categorical individuals and action, and try to assign credit and responsibility to a 1-man unit as opposed to a group. Not always respected, although it really should be, since it's conscious strategy involving skills. Occurs on both the individual level (floating), duo level (partnership), and group level (going with majority and/or alliances)

Examples of Reactive UTR winners:
(1) Ethan
(2) Vecepia
(3) Jenna
(4) Sandra
(5) Amber
(6) Chris
(7) Danni
(8) Aras

Again, all winners have rode coat-tails to some degree. This list those individuals who were shielded as targets specifically due to group action


4. Sandbagging
Similar to underestimation, but here we give credit to the players themselves for consciously using their skills to hide their skills. Done mostly by men, because women are usually in a position where they need to tout their strengths whereas males have to seem less threatning. Some good examples of effective sandbagging are Cesternino's "goofy kid" act or Heidi's hiding of her high IQ

Examples of sandbagging UTR winners:
(1) ASS Hatch
(2) Brian
(3) Amber
(4) Tom
(5) Danni (not sure, but probably)
(6) Aras
(7) Yul


Often times people use multiple types of UTR gameplay to maximize their manuvering ability and game control. I think it's most important to remember that UTR is a broad, flexible strategy that anybody can use. Labeling a player as UTR often serves to cover up the complexity and specifications of the micro-strategy involved in cultivating that game position. For instance, people may call Sandra and Amber UTR players. However, within that category, they both took vastly different approaches in utilizing the non-target status

Feel free to add to UTR tactics that I forgot or neglected to mention


Okay, I give up.

Season Structure Types
A lot of the seasons are VERY different from one another (not just ASS). If you wanted to get technical, you could say the season formats can be grouped together like:



Group I = Basic Format

Original Format
1. Borneo = The original "experiment"; 2 tribes + merge
2. Australia = Same format as Borneo, but alliance-ready contestants

Basic Format + Dud Mutiny + Fake Merge
5. Thailand = No mutiny, so it became the same as Australia essentially, but fake merge impacted results

Early Mingling
10. Palau = Similar to basic format except that all the contestants had a chance to mingle with 1 another and form alliances in the first few early days before being split up; 2 players got booted without a TC. Also a 1-time Exile Island might have influenced the Janu boot/quit



Group II = Twisters

Mid-Game Switch-Em Format
3. Africa
4. Marquesas

Gender Split + Mid-Game Switch-Em
6. Amazon
9. Vanuatu = Switch-em went down differently than Amazon's



Group III = Exile Island & Hidden Immunity Idol

HII & Exile Island + 4-Tribe Gender/Age Division + Mini-Merge
12. Panama = 4-man, 4 tribes expired after 1 episode

HII & Exile Island + 4-Tribe Race Division + Mini-Merge + Mid-Game Mutiny + Bottle Twist
13. Cook Islands = Similar to Panama except different division type and mutiny + bottle twist; 5-man, 4-tribes expired after 2 episodes

Early-Game Mingling + Class Twist + Mid-Game Switch-Em + 2 HII/Exile Island + 2 Bottle Twists
14. Fiji = Has most twists evah with the have/have-not twist being most notable



Group IV = Comebacks

2 Returning Tribemates
7. Pearl Islands = Abrupt start/village bargaining + Outcast

2 Returning Survivors + Switch-Em + HII
11. Guatemala = Had 2 comeback contestants like PI, but the returnees were from the season before as opposed to from that season; returnees were not a mid-game surprise twist but known from the start. Had a 1-time expiring HII

All Returning Survivors + 3 Tribe-Format + Mini-Merge + Switch-Em
8. ASS = The whole cast was a bunch of star returnees. Only season with 3-tribe format



* 1 thing to note, I didn't note double-boot twists, because I'm not sure when those started exactly. Vanuatu? Those have happened pretty frequently and also added another dimension to the game

* One might assume that at least some of the contestants from later seasons have accumulated knowledge about all, most, or some of the previous seasons prior to going on the show

As you can see, the game is drastically different from season to season, even within groups. That's why I find it pointless to whine about "unfairness" and how different the seasons are and try to throw certain formats out (like ASS) as illegitimate. I say we acknowledge the differences and try to factor them in, but consider each season as legitimate and valid

In terms of my rankings, I feel they reflect the added complexity of later seasons better than the earlier seasons. There's a great deal of twists and many more factors which had to be dealt with





It's plausible that players who won Survivor against weaker competition could’ve thrived against stronger competition, in which case they should be ranked higher. However, since I don’t have such data at my disposal, I must assess them from what I have seen from them. A more detailed analysis of each winner, their game, and their season follows below:





1. Richard Hatch

A. Good Luck
(1) Environment allowed him to use providing abilities
(2) Fortunate to find similar-minded allies on tribe
(3) Isolated and loyal Rudy
(4) Naïve Opponents = free ride to final 5
(5) Sean’s alphabet voting system ensured Pagong dominance, while also saving Hatch, who was the secondary target that council
(6) Sue and Kelly’s rift = free ride to final 3

B. Bad Luck
(1) Age or homosexual disadvantage?

C. Jury Management (4-7)
(1) Persuaded jury to vote rationally and game-based
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind & Pagong alliance leader
(3) Throwing the final challenge kept Rudy’s winning vote intact

D. Voting Control
(1) #1 provider earned him respect, early safety on Pagong, and Rudy
(2) Helped formed Survivor’s 1st alliance which controlled early-mid game
(3) Fooled Tagi & Sean long enough to gain voting advantage
(4) Never had complete control of his own Pagong alliance
(5) Almost got votes tied up in episode 9 and 13
(6) Had basically guaranteed his way into the final 2 at final 3

E. Skill sets
(1) Best asset was staying focused and realizing Survivor is a game
(2) 2nd best skill was being a provider
(3) Decent social game. His arrogance annoyed people, but he had working relationships
(4) Demonstrated versatility in All-Stars and attempted to be a dynamic non-threat. However, he remained targeted and his plan backfired, because he hadn’t cultivated any allies. 1st won voted off on his tribe



2. Tina Wesson
A. Good Luck
(1) Being apart of the magical 5-person alliance which formed before even arriving at camp
(a) Targeted Kel. Old females are most vulnerable at the very beginning of the game. The more time that passes, the stronger such individuals become
(2) Jerri indirectly revealed her personal boot order at 2nd tribal council. This gave Tina the heads-up (and Tina was smart enough to form an alliance with Keith and Colby)
(3) Weak competition
(a) Jerri = Annoying and threatening. Really helped Tina bond with Elisabeth and Rodger, and strengthened "good people" bond and future merge majority alliance
(b) Kel & Keith = Weak alpha male competition (social outcasts); Colby actually took Keith over Tina for personal reasons, because he couldn't stand Keith that much
(c) Kimmi = Leaked Kucha voting history which got Jeff eliminated; Tina gets credit for at least asking for such info though
(d) Colby = Tool; he misjudged jury mentality and Tina as a threat
(e) Kucha quitting way too early (especially Varner) at the merge IC, when a tiebreaker and future tribe majority was at stake
(f) Elisabeth = Either settled for 4th/5th or was naive and thought Tina would somehow choose her and Rodger for old tribemates Rodger and Colby; didn't take advantage of the opportunities
afforded by the Ogakor's backstabbing of Jerri before Kucha was completely marginalized and a blindsided Amber was still around
(4) Mike Skupin falling into the fire
(a) Likely saved Ogakor extermination

B. Bad Luck
(1) Age disadvantage on a young tribe

C. Jury Management (4/7)
(1) Humble and tactful game-based speech; I notice that Amber gave a similar speech in All-Stars
(2) Viewed as a strategic mastermind
(3) Jerri voted against Coby, not really for Tina

D. Voting Control
(1) Went with majority for Kel & Maralyn boots
(2) Realized position and sided with Keith & Colby to oust Mitchell
(3) Bonded and manipulated Rodger, Elizabeth, & Colby into making non-rational game decisions in her favor
(4) Betraying Amber was a calculated risk that paid off

E. Skill sets
(1) Versatile social skills. However, her reputation as a social game genius died in All-Stars. She couldn’t persuade Rupert or Rudy, who are both supposedly big on integrity, to get rid of Jerri over her! She’s still great at sales, but not out-of-this-world apparently
(2) Demonstrated awareness in both seasons
(3) Strategic planner. Any potential reputation as a strategic genius died in All-Stars. She had a huge target on her as a winner, but she could have maneuvered herself into an alliance with Rupert and Rudy earlier. She didn’t attempt to make one until it was too late. She’s still a good strategist though, just not a distinct one
(4) Persuasive
(5) Has inherent severe early game weakness as a weak challenger. She was the 1st boot of All-Stars, since she was a worthless tool, and the now competent players knew it. It proved that she’ll thrive when underestimated, but fails under adversity as an actual target




3. Ethan Zohn

A. Good Luck
(1) Compatibility with the Boran males who were put on his tribe
(2) Clarence’s food greediness which made him an outsider
(3) Samburu implosion which gave Boran strategic advantage at the tribal switch
(4) Brandon’s incompatibility with Frank which caused him to backstab the Samburu coup, which SAVED Lex and thus spared Ethan, Tom, and Kim from becoming the strategic minority. This would have likely ended Ethan’s game, and he did nothing to make these turn of events happen
(5) Ethan was basically carried into the final 4, because his opponents sucked
(a) Tom made himself too golden on the jury, so he was booted instead of Ethan or Lex. Kim J. won immunity, so she’s the 1 who made this possible. The original plan was to boot Kim
(b) Kim J. took Ethan to the final 2, because she as an emotional decision-maker. Lex was too dislikable to her and won too many challenges, and she didn’t think she could win no matter who she took to the final jury

B. Bad Luck = None really. Everything went his way that I can think of. He had no real strategic adversity happen to him

C. Jury Management (5/7)
(1) Had everyone’s (but Kim & Kelly) votes before going into Final TC, but mainly because Kim J. was totally pathetic in the jury’s eyes
(2) Gave 1 of the worst final TC performances, when he offended Brandon during Q&A period and actually LOST his vote

D. Voting Control
(1) Controlled early and mid-boots with Boran boys club alliance
(2) Almost lost control of game at Kelly boot, and would’ve been in the minority but was saved by Brandon
(3) Continued to Pagong Samburu with Boran alliance
(4) Didn’t have direct control over last 2 votes
(a) Kim would’ve been eliminated, but she won last 2 immunities
(b) It’s possible he threw the last 2 challenges on purpose, in which case I’d say he had control over events and was strategic. Otherwise, he seems like an incredibly lucky winner

E. Skill set
(1) Average in challenges. Not really an alpha male in either seasons. He consistently lost to Lex and Tom in Africa. He did well on 1 challenge for Saboga in All-Stars. However, he also lost one for his tribe for stupidity. He also lost a challenge for Mogo-Mogo for untying knots slower than
Rob Mariano. The main reason he survived as long as he did was he was the only alpha male on a weak Saboga
(2) Failed as provider in All-Stars
(3) If he had any other skill, it’d be social skills, but I didn’t see anything special in either Africa or All-Stars. Demonstrated limited persuasiveness. He failed to convince Rupert to save Tina even with the lure of a 4-unit alliance and failed to save himself when Lex said he was cutting him loose in All-Stars
(4) Strategically, he is average. He tends to rely on male alliances to carry him, although this failed him in All-Stars. Although people don’t think of him this way, his other main strategy is flying under-the-radar. He outlasted Hatch & Colby on Mogo Mogo by being a useful voting pawn. In Africa, being UTR got him the W. In All-Stars though, he was
automatically on the radar as a winner, plus Lex knew his game. Other than riding coattails, he’s never had a proactive strategy




4. Vecepia Towery

A. Good Luck
(1) Maraamu leadership power struggle kept her off the chopping block at a crucial time given her position as a middle-aged female ethnic minority. The more time that passes, the more she becomes a powerhouse
(2) Had Sean’s African-American loyalty
(3) Purple Rock eliminated Paschal
(4) The tribal switch might be considered good luck, because Rotu felt much
more betrayed by Neleh, which basically gave Vecepia the win

B. Bad Luck
(1) Being a middle-aged female ethnic minority makes you a potential early target
(2) Rotu dominance
(3) Tribal switch. Before that, she had majority power on Maraamu
C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech helped her win indifferent jury votes over Neleh
(2) Many votes were against Neleh, because of the supposed hypocrisy of being religiously moral while lying and backstabbing Rotu during the game, and the fact that Neleh started playing the game late
(3) Making a final 2 deal with Neleh, likely lost Kathy’s vote actually. She probably would’ve been taken no matter what anyways

D. Voting Control
(1) Caught on the outside with Sean after the 1st vote
(2) Gained majority by joining Sean and Rob & Sarah and booting Patricia
(3) Booted potential strong competitor Hunter at the 3rd vote
(4) Lost control due to bad luck and being in the minority, but adapted, floated, and kissed ass for the Gabriel and Rob boots
(5) Joined non-Rotu 4 and eliminated that alliance
(6) Tried to save Sean over Neleh, but was unable to persuade Kathy
(7) Won immunity and maintained a working relationship with Kathy, saving
her at the voting tie, which ultimately lead to Paschal’s ouster
(8) Dictated final 3 decision
(a) Had a Final 2 deal with Kathy going into the Final 3
(b) Gave Neleh final immunity after a Final 2 agreement; likely going to be taken by Neleh anyways since Kathy was best liked on the jury

E. Skill Sets
(1) Demonstrated clear versatility, openness, floating ability, and social skills
(2) Had plenty of working relationships
(3) Was relatively aware (switched gears after 1st episode and Rotu 4 Pagonging) and worked numbers
(4) Seen as “weak” but won key challenges, and used immunity idol as strategic leverage (with Kathy)
(5) Smart enough to let expendable allies go (Rob) and float with majority
(6) Able and willing to make the tough rational decisions





5. Brian Heidik
A. Good Luck
(1) Sook Jai’s strong challenge competitors were idiots and eliminated early
(2) Sook Jai implosion led them to throw a challenge to cut Jed
(3) Chuay Gahn’s had majority advantage at the merge
(4) Ghandia killed potential alliance with Ted, weakening Chuay Gahn females and Ted
(5) Shii Ann’s merge mistake spared Brian from the same maneuvering she did in All-Stars and potentially different results
(6) Helen, Jan, and Ted were total tools
(a) Ted had an irrational game trust for Brian as mentioned above
(b) Helen had an irrational game trust for Brian simply because he worked hard around camp
(c) Jan was isolated politically by the men and Helen (who made her an outsider when she voted against Ghandia out to Jan’s surprise). Instead of thinking long-term, she ended up being a short-term thinking pawn
(7) Final 2 opponent Clay sucks
(a) Ted wasn’t compatible with Clay, so by default, he trusted the other male—Brian. He also trusted Helen when she told him that Clay made racist comments about him. If he did, Survivor did not ever show them on TV, and even Probst mentioned this lack of critical thinking and blind following at the finale
(b) Clay’s reputation as a lazy, pathetic, small, stupid redneck made it difficult for his fellow tribemates to respect him and admit that he outplayed them
B. Bad Luck = Brian faced virtually zero strategic adversity. I can’t think of anything
C. Jury Management
(1) Manipulated Chuay Gahn and mitigated Helen & Ted’s anger at him
(a) Deflected Helen & Ted’s anger with cover story
(b) Understood Chuay Gahn psychology and pushed his work ethic which was Clay’s biggest fault
(2) Totally pissed off and lost Sook Jai’s votes
(a) Ken called Heidik out for his lies, but Ted and Helen are tools
(b) Didn’t even attempt to bond with Sook Jai
(3) Votes were anti-Clay, more than pro-Brian
(a) Clay lost Helen’s vote when he didn’t respect her jury question
(b) Clay lost Chuay Gahn votes, because he was lazy
(c) Clay had blown up at Jake and offended him

D. Voting Control
(1) Bonded with males and controlled Chuay Gahn after Ghandia’s boot
(2) Gained tribe control after Ted’s boot, since he had an exclusive alliance with Clay, and was able to manipulate both Helen and Jan who didn’t work together
(3) Had immunity for the last 3 boots

E. Skill sets
(1) Best skill was his social skills. He didn’t bond with Sook Jai at all, so I can’t give him an A. However, he was a very good liar and manipulator
(2) Rational decision-maker
(3) Controlled end-game and left multiple strategic options open




6. Jenna Morasca

A. Good Luck
(1) Gender split probably enhanced her long-term power. Putting the guys on an all-male tribe, made them value females much more, and even more willing to ally with the good-looking girls
(2) Annoying and stupid Roger took control of the males at Tambaqui
(3) Compatibility with Young Jamburu & Deena = Alliance
(4) Tribal switch led to strong allies. The instant compatibility was lucky

B. Bad Luck
(1) Jenna was initially on all-female Jamburu, which was bad since it meant she couldn’t use some of her strongest assets (like looks, flirting, etc.)
(2) Had some tough competition, especially gameplayer Rob Cesternino

C. Jury Management
(1) Game-based speech didn’t piss the jury off, while Matthew’s integrity talk turned everyone off
(2) Respected as a player and underdog
(3) Well-liked by the jury too
(4) Seen as clearly superior to Matthew

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Christy voted against her in the 1st boot
(2) Joined majority alliance on Jaburu
(3) Joined majority alliance on Neo-Jaburu
(4) Part of Jacare’s majority alliance of which controlled first 3 merge boots
(5) Lost control and was on the outside of majority alliance for the rest of the
game (4 boots)
(6) Had a working relationship with Rob, and outlasted Christy and Heidi
(7) Spared self by winning last 2 immunities and the Christy boot (would’ve been her probably)
(8) Dictated finale competitor by winning final immunity

E. Skill sets
(1) Mingled with most of the females, assessing who was strong, who could be an ally, etc. Jenna posted here that she got along well with Joanna, so I don't think it was a high school old girls vs. young cute girls thing necessarily like how it was portrayed on TV. Heidi was the one who actually made that statement not Jenna
(2) Found a solid ally and strategist in Heidi, and the young girls formed an alliance. Joanna and Jeanne clearly were becoming a tight alliance, and when they pushed Deena forward to be the leader, that probably made Deena not trust Jeanne anymore and more willing to side with the younger girls
(3) Jenna plays social chameleon doing the whole women rule men drool ra-ra speeches (as shown on TV). Meanwhile, she also flirts during the inter-gender reward challenge and opens some doors. I loved how she flattered Rob C. at that challenge, and Alex made it clear she'd gotten his attention as well. This would be key to their later alliance IMO
(4) Not sure when it happened, or if it was bolstered by Shawna's flakiness, but Heidi and Jenna probably formally established themselves as a partnership or tight alliance
(5) Swap happens. Dave makes it clear it's women vs. men, despite Jenna's openness. I think Jenna said she got quite a bit of info from this encounter in 1 of her posts here, so it wasn't just Dave using her or anything. So anyways, Jenna picks herself a damn good team, while Dave recruits a dangerous mole Heidi
(6) Jenna maintains good relations with everybody in her swap tribe, although I'm not sure what her relationship with Matt was lol. In any case, Rob C. invites her into the new tribe alliance, and she floats with the majority willing to boot Shawna for the reasons she mentioned above
(7) At the merge, Heidi and her get back together, where they probably share information that they've gathered about both sides. In other words, they divided and conquered, which is a great strategy. The majority (Jaburu II + Heidi) decide to boot Roger, since he's annoying, and because Heidi smartly pointed out that having him on the jury would be a disadvantage to all the women in a final vote, because he's likely a sexist
(8) After Dave goes, Deena plays leader and tries to cut Alex. Knowing she needs to get Heidi worked into a more solid position, Jenna is with the anti-Deena boot, to break-up her pairing with Cesternino, eliminate a pretty good player, strengthen the core majority alliance, and secure the trust of Alex further under the guise of tribe alliance disloyalty. This leaves targets around still (the outsiders and alpha male Alex)
(9) The new 4-person alliance is formed between Cesternino, Alex, Heidi, and Jenna. Cesternino, being no dummy, realizes that without Deena, his position is a bit weaker, and then Alex blows it for Jenna and Heidi when he openly admits that Rob is the 4th wheel of the group. At that point, a well-connected Cesternino jumps ship, organizes his mutiny of the disenfranchised, and boot Alex marginalizing the girls. This is when Jenna lost overt game control, and had to play a floater game
(10) Cesternino proposes allying with Jenna to F2. She tries to stir doubt with his allies, by calling him out in front of everybody and that he'd offered her an alliance. This plan doesn't work out as well as Jenna liked, so her and Heidi come up with a plan to turn Christy and Rob against one another. Heidi approaches Christy, since the latter didn't get along with Jenna, while Jenna went to Rob. According to Morasca, "We thought if Heidi put pressure on Christy and made her wishy washy it might work and at the same time I was going to Rob saying 'you know Christy cant be trusted, shes wishy washy, she has never voted with an alliance and always voted the way she wanted (which was true on the show 99.99% of the time we were there she did what she wanted voting wise) and you cant gamble having a person like that in the game at this point' I think the combo of both Heidi and myself worked and Christy decided like usual that she was going to vote for whomever she wanted and decide when she was going to pick which person to vote for, which ultimately showed Rob what I was saying about her was true she was wishy washy and did what she wanted voting wise not with an alliance. Luckily, for our sake, Rob decided that he wanted to get rid of Christy, she was too big of a liability, and Heidi and I were open to that because that meant we stayed another week". Jenna also smartly takes a calculated risk and gives immunity to Heidi to help ensure Christy is targeted, knowing she is seen as a lesser threat. This also helped demonstrate her loyalty, which could be contrasted with some individuals' emotional disgust for Cesternino's backstabbing gameplay should she end up in the F2 with him
(11) Cesternino is very open that the girls are going next, and that Butch-Matt-Cesternino are sticking together to F3. Jenna has her breakdown at this point, but she's said that everyone has had similar ones on the show. She claims to never wanting to quit for real, since she was a huge Survivor fan and I believe her on that. Heidi gets eliminated, as Jenna is seen as a weaker threat
(12) Jenna goes on her immunity run and pwns the men, making her 1 of the coolest female players in Survivor history in my book. She goes from talking about wanting to quit to deciding her F2 partner, and smartly picks Matt out as the weaker competitor. She also pretends that he is the more deserving opponent to make herself look better rather than looking like a goat-taking opportunist
(13) Throughout the game and in the jury vote, Jenna is smart enough to keep her speeches consistent and focused on her gameplay, not integrity and crap that will piss the jury off. She also remains tactful, polite, and keeps it simple, and is rewarded with an overwhelming 6-1 vote--1 of the biggest blow-outs in Survivor history, and the biggest one at the time (only recently trumped by Earl's win)

* I think for the most part, Jenna's distinguishing characteristics as a winner is her social game, being a pretty good strategist (knowing how to fly UTR but also make sure she's always in the majority alliance) and the fact that she is a strong female. She's not so intimidating that people consider her a challenge threat, but she is clearly good enough to go on a challenge run in the late game when she has to. She's right around the middle which is 1 of the best positions as a player. In my opinion, it's very advantageous to be a strong female or a weak male. Weak females often have huge early game weaknesses, while alpha males have large late game weaknesses





7. Sandra Diaz-Twine
A. Good Luck
(1) Rupert
(a) Drake dominance
(b) Loyal to allies
(c) Distracting target
(2) Not caught for Fishgate, because Christa got accused
(3) Able to utilize Spanish-speaking skills at game start was huge, because it made her a valuable resource at a critical time. As a weak female competitor, her biggest danger comes at the start of the game, but she
gets stronger UTR power as time goes on
(4) Outcast twist helped kill Morgan (Lil)
(5) Jon & Lil
(a) Sandra benefited from Fairplay’s strategy and game control
(b) Opponent incompatibility between Jon’s disrespect and evil gameplay and Lil’s sense of integrity + Lil’s final challenge victory got Sandra the win

B. Bad Luck
(1) Ethnic Minority
(2) Outcast Twist brought Burton back and really altered the game
C. Jury Management
(1) Up-front game-based speech; “As Long As It’s Not Me” was respected by the jury
(2) Many votes were against Outcast Lil

D. Voting Control (6/7)
(1) Formed majority with Jon, Christa, Trish, and Rupert
(2) Stayed loyal to Rupert with Christa and flipped script on Jon and Trish
(3) Solid alliance with Rupert and Christa eliminated Shawn
(4) Balboa majority (Drake + Outcasts) eliminated Andrew and Ryan
(5) New Balboa majority (Morgan + Outcasts) eliminates Rupert, making Sandra and Christa the minority; she voted against rational Fairplay
(6) Completely saved Christa and herself, by making Tijuana and Burton the top targets, by revealing key info to Morgan and dealing with Fairplay
(7) No control; new majority (Outcasts + Fairplay) eliminate Christa
(8) Females get together and boot Burton; completely avoids being targeted
(9) Completely avoids being targeted again and eliminates Darrah threat
(10) Had no real control over final challenge but wasn’t offensive like Fairplay

E. Skill sets
(1) Sandra is an interesting strategic evaluation. On the 1 hand, she’s not a long-term planner, so she benefited from good luck and underestimation. However, in most of the cases, she was surprisingly in control of the boots if one looks at her voting control. Since her strength was being UTR, she used that to her full advantage, taking out the right individuals and setting up others as targets. Her #1 priority was, “As long as it’s not me” philosophy which is smart, because too many times, Survivors think too long-term and screw themselves, because they don't keep things simple. Instead she kept things simple
(2) At the same time, she was proactive when she needed to. The best example was booting Tijuana over Burton on episode 11, while simultaneously setting Darrah up. At the time, I did not understand this. However, this move simultaneously eliminated a potential power duo (Morgan alliance), a potential UTR floater (Tijuana), kept big targets in
the game (Burton), and set Darrah up as a target. Also, her non-emotional, business-style of playing earned her the long-term respect of the jury
(3) She also stayed ethnically consistent in the game, playing dirty against dirty players (Fairplay), while staying loyal to players who valued integrity (Rupert), showing her versatility and ability to adjust her gameplay style accordingly. If she had to, she was willing to flip on Rupert eventually
(4) In terms of social skills, she wasn’t socially tactful all the time, but she was respected for straight-shooting. She had plenty of working relationships at all times and could be fairly persuasive. 1 of her smartest game moves was the innovative sneaking around trick, that really helped change the game up. She also kept her mouth shut when Christa was blamed for Fishgate





8. Amber Mariano

A. Good Luck
(1) On the same tribe as Rob Mariano
(2) Non-Notable reputation = Underestimated target
(3) Chaperan dominance
(4) Jenna Morasca quitting
(5) Rob’s Influence Over Lex & Kathy (Pre-Existing Friendship)
(6) Carried by “Stupid, Stupid” Chaboga-Mogo (especially Rob)
(7) Threat of Purple Rock helped influence Jenna to betray Rupert

B. Bad Luck
(1) Sue Hawk quitting
(2) Tribal Switch = Only Chaperan sent to Mogo-Mogo

C. Jury Management
(1) Tactful jury speech; admitted she was lucky and rode coattails. Speech and answers were tailored to jury, because she mentioned in post-game interviews that contestants would talk about how they hated when
winners didn’t acknowledge the role of luck
(2) Majority of votes were against Rob, because of his dirty gameplay
(3) Treated Shii Ann like a human while everyone else on Chaboga-Mogo ignored her, earning her respect and the winning vote

D. Voting Control (4/7)
(1) Invited into a primary alliance with Rob
(2) Formed Chaperan core majority with Tom which booted Cesternino
(3) No direct control over first 7/8 boots, but had impact via tribe immunity
(4) Outlasted Jerri by persuading Mogo-Mogo to flip using logic and Rob
(5) Formed Chaboga-Mogo majority
(a) Had a pre-existing Chapera alliance with Tom and Alicia
(b) Formed an alliance with Jenna and Rupert with Rob
(c) Was willing to go with Lex, Kathy, and Tom, but Rob convinced her to stick with Chapera
(d) Dictated first 5 merge boots
(6) Persuaded Jenna to turn on Rupert by appealing to her greed and logic
(7) Ultimately guaranteed into final 2 once Jenna was eliminated

E. Skill Set
(1) Great social game and well-liked by everyone in both her seasons. She also seduced Rob! She was the one shown doing the sales pitch to Jenna and Rupert on allying with her and Rob. She also seemed to have a working relationship with Tom and Alicia as well, so she didn’t simply ride Rob’s coat-tails
(2) Showed true gamesmanship when she got screwed at tribal switch and
successfully persuaded Chaboga Mogo to keep her over Jerri
(3) Flew under the radar and let Rob control the game
(4) Understood jury mentality
(5) Never a weak link in challenges
(6) Strategically, I’d say Rob ran the show. He was the one who convinced her to stick with Chaboga-Mogo instead of Lex, Kathy, and Tom. However, her simple strategy of playing good cop with Rob, earned her the million, because she made a good choice in picking her partner. Her strategy in both seasons is to be a loyal ally to a powerful, less likeable individual. In in All-Stars, she improved upon this, by adding extension alliances and with Rob became a floating partnership (Rob’s shady experience largely helped here)




9. Chris Daugherty

A. Good Luck
(1) Compatible with Elder Lopevi who outnumbered Young Lopevi
(2) Eliza = outcasted + willing to make strategic moves(3) Leann boot opportunity. The loved one challenge helped Alinta have pity for Chris and the girls got soft. Then, Twila hand-fed Chris the strategy to flip

B. Bad Luck
(1) Smart, female power opponents (especially Ami)
(2) Tribal switch led to 2 smart, secret opponents (especially Julie) infiltrating Lopevi

C. Jury Management
(1) Deflected anger from Lea (Sarge), Julie, and Eliza
(2) Many votes were against abrasive Twila
(3) Underdog

D. Voting Control (5/7)
(1) Formed majority alliance on Lopevi with the old guys booting all 4 young
guys, who’d probably be large threats later on
(2) Lost all control on Alinta at Rory’s boot
(3) Voted with majority at Lea’s (Sarge) boot
(4) Voted against majority at Chad’s boot
(5) Took advantage of an opportunity to ally with Eliza and Twila & Scout, and became Alinta’s majority at Leann’s boot; alliance with Eliza made Scout the back-up target
(6) Set-up Eliza by booting Julie; pitted Twila against Eliza (controlling vote)
(7) Controlled final 2 votes, because he won immunity

E. Skill Sets
(1) Strategically, Chris understood basic numbers, think rationally, and how to float with the power. Despite crappy performance on 1st challenge, managed to outlast young guys and form Lopevi’s majority alliance. He also outlasted Lopevi on Alinta as the last guy standing, and his vote
against Sarge instead of Julie or Eliza likely helped his position. Chris knew how to fly under the radar and become a non-target, despite the fact that he was a male challenge threat. He never lost focus, didn’t get cocky once he had power, and pitted the females against one another
(younger girls versus older women—especially Twila and Eliza) to distract them from himself
(2) His strength was his social game. He seemed to read the females very well and play their emotions, best evidenced at the final tribal council. He got the females to sympathize with him, giving him the winning opportunity he needed to flip the power of the game. He was able to make the tough rational decisions and then mitigate hurt feelings
(3) He demonstrated persuasiveness, some charisma, and had working relationships
(4) In terms of awareness, he was out-of-the-loop at times and had some verbal slips that could’ve cost him. Overall, no huge mistakes though



10. Tom Westm