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But Vee would never take someone to F3 (if she could help it) who wouldn't take her to F2. Colleen has blown her off every time she has tried to have any kind of discussion with her this game. If Vee can't build a certain level of comfort with Colleen, there's no way she wants her around that late in the game. As I've said plenty of times before, Vee is less concerned with who she faces then making sure she gets to the end. At this point, she's probably pretty sure that both John and Tina would like to face her in the end so that's her ideal F3. Colleen's no goat for Vee since she'd get Kathy, Gretchen, Rob, and Frank right off the bat. Even if Vee were looking to who she might beat, Colleen would be a dead end. In fact, I'm sure Vee would have been wondering for awhile how she was going to get Colleen out of the game when both John and Tina preferred to keep her around. If Gretchen thinks Vee would want to face Colleen, she's mistaken.

Tina might have been more open to facing Colleen if only because she pulls Frank to herself, and she likely has a decent shot at Kathy's vote. On the other hand, Alicia is probably resolved not to vote for her again, and the votes of John and Vee depend greatly on how things go down. Colleen may in fact be her backup plan for facing Vee, but she probably sees her only as a last resort. Her play against the Kekos, while necessary, has limited her reasonable options.

John can't really face Colleen either. Colleen would get Frank, Tina, Gretchen, and Rob with Kathy possibly going either way. Alicia and Vee could vote for John unless he gives them reason not to when they are voted out. It is highly unlikely he ever would seriously consider going to the end with her.

Yes, no one really respects Colleen's gameplay, but consideration of gameplay won't be the only factor going into people's votes. Colleen is likeable, and she has two people who will vote for her over anyone else in Rob and Gretchen. While she hasn't gotten credit for gameplay, she hasn't gotten blame either (nor do I think that she would have even in her decision this current episode). While other people have enemies, she has none. No one views Colleen as a goat - they view her as a pawn, one which can be discarded late in the game when no longer needed.

Vee actually can win - I went through the various scenarios a page or so back. That said, she's fighting uphill in most cases. Ironically, the one person she probably has the best chance of beating is Gretchen if she can avoid being personally responsible for the boots of John and Alicia. Vee would never purposefully work with Gretchen for the same reason she wouldn't work with Colleen at this point so the only way that scenario arises is if Gretchen goes on a late immunity run, but if she does, it is very possible.

Why doesn't Colleen make enemies? I think the reason is that she's such a wild card, no one is really all that surprised that she makes this or that move.

At the start of the game, she was kind of seen as Rob's puppy dog, following his lead, but unlike Rob, she didn't really show a great deal of pleasure in screwing people over. So it was, "Poor Colleen - I wish she'd see her interests lie with us instead of Rob." When Lex gets kicked out, Frank and Tina blame Rob and Vee, the obvious masterminds, and John, the turncoat. Colleen is just a vote going along for the ride.

If Colleen was ever to make an enemy, it would seem it should have occurred after Frank's boot. She had promised Tina and Frank to join them in an F4 alliance just before going along with the vote against Frank. Again, though, it is clear that Rob was calling the shots, and Colleen's reaction presents such clear devastation with the results that it is impossible for Tina to stay angry with her. If the relationship between Colleen and Tina is not what it was before the Frank boot, that is much less because Tina cut off Colleen than that Colleen has grown more wary of Tina, particularly following Tina's temporary alliance with the Kekos.

Colleen's relationship with Gretchen was well known, and that there would be efforts to recruit her had to be foreseen. Up until now, the Ahis have tolerated Colleen's friendliness with Gretchen (despite at least some indication that she was feeding them information) because she was needed for numbers and because she didn't actually flip. There's been plenty of hints in the story so far that no one wants to rely upon Colleen. That's why Rob kept her in the dark whenever he could. That's partly why John has spent so much time trying to be her friend and manipulate her subtly. That's why Vee continues to try to build a relationship with her despite continually being shut down. They may be upset if Colleen turns on them, but in the end, they'll acknowledge they knew she would eventually just because she's Colleen.

Oh, I absolutely think Vee would get rid of Colleen, and if she can get the others to go along with it, it is her best move.

Will Tina want to get rid of Colleen? That's one factor that was unresolved in the working copy before it was pulled. It really depends upon how confident Tina is in Colleen at this point in the game. I think I suggested before that Tina would have fought the move earlier in the game. Now? Well, if Colleen really is plotting to vote out the Ahis, then she can't be relied upon as much as hoped. I've speculated a number of times that Tina and Colleen aren't as close as they were earlier in the game. Up until now, Tina might have rationalized that away, but I doubt she would do that anymore in the face of what John and Vee would reveal. In the end, I could see her going along reluctantly, but with the knowledge that Colleen wasn't quite the safety valve she thought she could be. (The one Tina really wants out is Alicia, but she's immune. No doubt she'd already be trying to figure out the votes for F5 once she agreed to vote out Colleen, and I'm sure she'd get the jump on the others in approaching Gretchen.)

Should John vote out Colleen? Probably not, since that gives more power relatively speaking to Vee and Tina, and voting out Gretchen would seemingly end the danger. But I could certainly see him doing so. While I could not see John holding a grudge against Colleen all the way to the jury (especially if he has others to hold grudges against), I could see him react a bit emotionally to the news that his efforts with Colleen had failed to keep her in line. In the short run, voting Colleen out as punishment for straying will have a strong appeal on an emotional level, especially if he never directly confronts her about what Alicia has told him.

You are right that both Alicia and Gretchen are in danger at F5, but so is Tina. Vee should be safe regardless, and John should be OK mainly because neither Alicia nor Vee would want to vote for him. I do agree with you that Alicia should have taken out Tina before letting John control the boot order, but players do make mistakes and it is not necessarily fatal. Alicia will be counting on John targeting Tina, or failing that to want Gretchen out. I doubt she has much reason to think that Vee might not vote with John, and she probably hasn't considered the impact of Gretchen's vote at F5 at all.

I still dispute that she has any reason to worry about Kathy's vote regardless. Kathy may be disappointed that Alicia and Gretchen couldn't work together, but she wouldn't withhold her vote from her friend on that account. As for Colleen, I'm sure Alicia will expect her to be miffed, but then she never had any indication she could expect Colleen's vote in any case. Gretchen is clearly the key to the success of Alicia's course. Sure, Gretchen will be mad, but will she vote for an Ahi over a Keko? If she does, she pretty much proves herself a bit of a hypocrite. Alicia will be counting on this as her means of receiving Gretchen's vote since I agree it'd be near impossible for Alicia to win without it. (And this is why once she realized Gretchen would vote for Colleen that Gretchen's plan became untenable. Besides which, if Gretchen is going to vote for Colleen, Alicia isn't really risking her vote by going another way - she's actually improving her odds of receiving that vote.)

Actually, vote by vote:

Frank - If anything, switching opponents from Colleen to John/Vee will improve Alicia's odds. I think Alicia gets his vote regardless however.

Rob - Since he's certain to vote for Colleen, the switch improves Alicia's odds. Particularly against John, I think Alicia has a real shot at Rob's vote.

Kathy - OK, perhaps the odds at her vote do go down a little, but we're talking from about 100% to 95% or something of that nature. In the end, she'll vote for Alicia if she's in front of the jury.

Colleen/John - Alicia probably doesn't have a shot at Colleen's vote, but then she doesn't have John's vote if she faces Colleen. Especially once he's made that threat, he'll live up to it. If Alicia ends up facing Vee instead, I think this could be a negative swing.

Tina - Against John, there's no doubt Alicia's odds improve (at least in my opinion). Tina is a bit of a swing vote in that scenario, and there's certainly some tension between Tina and John.

Gretchen - Ironically, Alicia's odds of getting Gretchen's vote improve facing John because Gretchen will be reluctant to vote for him whereas she's a virtual lock to vote for Colleen otherwise.

Vee - OK, here's the negative swing. Vee is more likely to vote for Alicia against Colleen than against John. If Alicia goes up against Vee instead, this would be a comparison of John's likely votes in which case it is static. John wouldn't vote for Alicia under either scenario.

If we discount those votes unlikely to potentially change (Kathy, Frank, Colleen/John against John or John against Vee), three votes become more likely (Rob, Tina, Gretchen) and one vote becomes less likely (Colleen/Vee against Vee or Vee against John). Does that mean she'll get all three of those votes? No, of course not, but at least she would have a realistic shot at them.

There's only a few votes that would differ based upon Alicia's perspective. First, she doesn't know Frank at all and would have trouble knowing how he would vote. She probably suspects he didn't like most of the other Ahis, but she'd have trouble relying on his vote. Regardless, though, I'm sure she would guess Colleen has a better shot at his vote than John does.

Vee is another one whose vote would be difficult to predict for Alicia. They haven't communicated really at all. But that's the one vote that she likely loses as a result of her actions so her lack of knowledge isn't an argument against my analysis.

In other words, the votes Alicia would have the least certainty about would be votes that would generally favor her under Gretchen's plan. That makes it more likely that she would change things up, not less likely.

I think it is fairly clear that Colleen would get the votes of Rob and Gretchen, but against John those votes are up for grabs. On those, I don't think you disagree with me. (Well, perhaps you think there's no way Gretchen votes for Alicia under these circumstances, but I still have to say the odds are better than up against Colleen.)

We disagree on Tina, but there's nothing new to analyze here. I think she's an obvious Colleen vote against Alicia just based upon her reputation alone (even to Alicia, especially given their frosty relationship in this game), and thus Alicia's odds of getting Tina's vote can only improve against John, especially if John is instrumental in Tina's ouster as Alicia expects he will be.

We disagree on Kathy also. I don't think Alicia would even consider the possibility that she could lose Kathy's vote, and even if she did, she'd be confident she could retain it by argument in front of the jury. Kathy had no relationship with Colleen so why should she care if Colleen gets voted out?

I don't see why Alicia would discount John's threat. Sure, it may have been motivated by a desire to undercut Alicia's options, but once made, there is no reason why John wouldn't follow through on it. As such, it doesn't matter whether Alicia gets Colleen's vote or not. It nets to nothing.