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Quid, I think you are right about Kaysar. It all boils down to how you pick apart the pieces of a person's overall game. I can separate things in a much more defined way than you can, and that's all fine.

Ok, I guess I'm going to have to try my best to get my point across. I'm in a rare position as a Sov AND Will lover to try and explain why those two forces (equal in might, BTW) needed each other to be in the game:

First of all, let's not even gloss over the biggest factor into Will getting as far as he did: S6. That's right. S6. Had there not been 4 Sovs in the game, the Evil Dr. Will Kirby would have been the first person evicted in BBAS. You can take that to the bank. The ONLY reason Will made it past everyone pre-jury was because a 4-person alliance, 3-person alliance, anything greater than a pair pre-jury is absolutely DEVASTATING once you reach the jury phase. Especially with no counter-alliance to stop them.

Now, let's think about this. You are coming into the game as a 4-person alliance. And whether you like it or not, S6 was forced to stick together just because of who they were, so they were forced to play the game as an alliance and not as individuals.

Therefore, every HoH week has to be spent on getting out people who threaten your alliance winning HoHs AND are going to go against you if they were to win HoHs. So, here's a week-by-week analysis of how the house breaks down, from S6's perspective:

Week 1:

I started to talk about week 1, but with the dual HoH and the fact that Alison is pretty much universally accepted as the smartest decision to evict, there's really no reason to talk about this week.

Week 2:

Obviously this is the most controversial week. There are 13 people in the house, 4 of who are S6. Here's how things break down, IMO:

Chill Town (Will/Boogie) - Chill Town is not a threat to S6. At this point in the game, there are 2 things that you need to be thinking about as a member of the biggest target in the game. The first is getting people out who could win HoH and break up your alliance. The second is finding a way to build up other people in the house as bigger threats than your alliance, thus increasing the chances that your alliance won't get targeted if they don't win the next HoH. This is the basic premise of Kaysar's strategy. You CANNOT go on the assumption that one alliance will win every HoH from here to the end of the game. It's just not plausible to think that. Therefore, you have to start laying the groundwork for making it so that in the statistical probability that your alliance doesn't win the next HoHs, that there is a greater chance that your alliance doesn't get put up and one of your members evicted. In order to do this, Kaysar had to analyze the house and figure out who it was that presented the biggest threat to the other players besides S6.

OBVIOUSLY, this threat was Chill Town. CT, at this point in the game, was doing more to create chaos than they were to actually work people over and start playing the masterful endgame that they eventually played. They were getting drunk every night and trying to pit people against each other and create these huge fights that would make everyone forget about them and be mad at each other. It imploded on them, because Kaysar saw right through it. In one of the best moments of the game, IMO, Kaysar is called down to the hot tub by CT, where they begin putting him on the spot about putting up N/D, which is mean to cause a huge scene. Instead, Kaysar totally blasts them, outing everything that they are trying to accomplish, and is probably one of the few people in BB history who makes Will look like a complete fool.

It is in this moment that Kaysar has exactly what he wants. Everyone in the house is FURIOUS with CT, and demands that Kaysar put Will or Boogie up. This is exactly what Kaysar wants. It's almost a CERTAINTY that if S6 doesn't win the Week 3 HoH, CT goes up and is out of the house, and NOT someone from S6.

So, it is for all that I said above, PLUS the fact that CT had no desire to win HoHs at that point in time, that it would have been a MISTAKE for Kaysar to put up CT and try to get them out.

I would keep going, but I gotta go eat lunch with my roomate. I'll come back afterwards and finish up my post. It's gonna be huge.

ETA: He rallies!

Moving on from CT now, we can safely rule them out of being put on the block, so that leaves us with effectively 7 choices for this week:

Marcellus/Erika/George - In M/E's case, they were on S6's side for everything we knew at the time, so putting them up would just further weaken S6's chances. Ruled out. In George's case, although he is the bane of my existence as a strategist, he poses absolutely no threat right now, so getting rid of him is a waste of an HoH.

That leaves us with 4 people whose intentions are unknown or adverse to S6:

Danielle - While I completely understand any case for getting rid of her, and obviously if hindsight was 20/20, they should've gotten rid of her and denied James an exit from S6, I don't think it would've been prudent for them to go after Dani in week 2. She was trying to go UTR, wasn't fluffing anyone's feathers, and had said on numerous occasions with no contradiction that she would not put up S6 if she won HoH. And plus, she was aligned with James. I think had they chosen to get rid of her, they very much risked James turning on them and just out-and-out becoming his own player. Not likely, but possible. It would'n't have been a huge mistake, I don't think, but there are options that are better.

Diane - I've already beat the horse here, but it's retarded to target Diane at this point. She's broken, she's worthless, and nothing more than a number. The only reason I don't lump her in with Marcellus, Erika, and George is that she was vocally against S6, so she would at least be one anti-S6 down. Still a waste.

Jase - Obviously then, the debate is between Jase and Nakomis. Either one would be a satisfactory boot. Jase was laying low, and probably would've continued to lay low, but he was FIRMLY anti-S6, and so getting rid of him BEFORE he was prepared to win some HoHs and PoVs would always be a smart decision.

Nakomis - Again, the reason why Nakomis was 100% the correct boot this week is that Nakomis was perhaps the smartest person in the house that would try at the HoHs. She followed no one, and got pressured to do nothing. I doubt she would've fallen under Chill Town's spell unless she decided to go along with them for her own gain as well. She was super intelligent and, like Howie/Janie, was the only other person counting stuff in the house so that she would be prepared in a tiebreaker. I actually think that she said in an interview after the show that she would've won HoH had she stayed in, based on her guessing while watching it or whatever. But the point is that Nakomis doesn't back down. You may argue that she was waiting to see what happened, and she would've put Chill Town up, or whatever the case may be, but Nakomis would know better than to go after Chill Town when giving a 4-person alliance (which, assuming she won Week 3 HoH, evicted Will) a free week would give them a 4/10 shot (or 40%) at winning HoH, which is damn near insurmountable odds given that the next biggest alliance would be 6 1-person alliances. Nakomis would not go after CT despite how annoying they are because she could pull herself out of the game and see the numbers adding up. If all 4 S6 make it to Week 6 (when the jury starts), then not only are they guaranteed to control the votes (assuming they don't get to F2), but they have pretty much a 50-50 shot of winning every week.

Simply put, if you are trying to craft a strategy where you want people to go after CT, you want emotional people in the game who will be annoyed by CT and put them up. Nakomis wouldn't fall for that.

Week 3

This was a weird week. Because of James' assholeness, he pretty much went against everyone in insisting to get rid of Chicken George. It made me extremely happy (and it bought James a TON of goodwill from the fact that he wouldn't piss off anyone important in the house), but it helped out the Sovs absolutely nohow. Then he gets forced by his alliance to put up Jase (which he should've been ok with anyways, but he was looking for a way out of the alliance anyways), and they end up salvaging the week by getting rid of a strong competitor, even though James breaks off from S6 and wants Janelle gone after that.

Week 4

This was the mistake week. I don't think anyone here would disagree that getting rid of Diane here makes sense. Basically what happened is that James set the trend in his HoH week that, from that point on, each HoH in the alliance would do what they want, period. Therefore, Janelle decided to make completely dumb nominations (Boogie/Erika, ironically) and backdoor someone who wasn't even a threat to begin with. The only good thing she did was by helping Boogie win the PoV, she bought a lot of goodwill with Chill Town, which facilitated the endgame for them.

However, the nominations should've been Boogie/Erika, throwing the PoV to Boogie, AND THEN BACKDOORING Danielle. Once you've done that, you've cleared out the last remaining threat, and you're stuck with Diane, Erika, George, Marcellus, and Chill Town.

Obviously, doing that would probably cause James to flip the fuck out. There may be a small chance that Chill Town turns the tide and votes Erika out, but I doubt it.

If they manage to get Danielle out, then the endurance HoH would end with Howie promising Erika safety, she drops, Howie wins HoH, and then probably one of Diane/Erika/George goes home. I don't really know from there.