Winner Analysis

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Thailandsurvivor		#2981	[-]
Posts: 737 (05/17/08 1:29 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The way Tracy talked about him, the way Ami left, the way Jason was calling him cocky and arrogant, and the way his boot episode was all about him being too confident? Maybe it is just my bias, but my point was that Ozzy and Hatch can't compare in any way. Everyone in Micronesia was booted for a reason in this game. None of the favorites were voted off because of how well they did in the past (unless you want to say Yau, but he brought his boot onto himself.) In ASS, the editing made it look like Ethan was the boot, but I really doubt there was any way Hatch could survive just like Rob C. had zero chance. The better players were targetted in the first ASS. There were also pre game alliances in that season, but none of that crap happened here. The excuse can be used in ASS, but as much as I like Yau, Ami, and Eliza it can't be used here.
Kitty Pryde1		#2982	[-]
Posts: 4163 (05/17/08 1:51 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, Ravu. If anything, you can apply your same "It was an early season so people didn't know any better" to Micronesia vs. ASS. The first All-Stars, people didn't know how to play, so you had idiots like Lex voting off every strong member of his own tribe. This season, there was a lot more positioning and less trying to take people out early based on previous reputations.
RavuRules		#2983	[-]
Posts: 1659 (05/17/08 1:51 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The way Tracy talked about him, the way Ami left, the way Jason was calling him cocky and arrogant, and the way his boot episode was all about him being too confident? That's the classic mid-game karma edit that plenty of Survivors have had like Rotu 4, Candice, or the Horsemen. No one had a problem with him over at Ponderosa, and he got along fine with all those people. Ami said she was rooting for him in post-game interviews as well Maybe it is just my bias, but my point was that Ozzy and Hatch can't compare in any way. Everyone in Micronesia was booted for a reason in this game. Same with All-Stars. The #1 reason why Ozzy was booted was that Parvati felt she couldn't win against him if she sat next to him on the jury. Cirie and just about everybody felt the same way. That's reputation and it's totally comparable. Everyone feared him None of the favorites were voted off because of how well they did in the past (unless you want to say Yau, but he brought his boot onto himself.) With comeback seasons, it's a mixture of both. People are voted off for reputation, past games, and of course the current game. Reputation or past history may create a scapegoat justification to target somebody, but ultimately, their ability to deal with and mitigate that threat status is determined by their abilities in the game. It's bias to give everybody in ASS a bye for reputation and not Micronesia, just because everybody's been giving them that excuse for so long In ASS, the editing made it look like Ethan was the boot, but I really doubt there was any way Hatch could survive just like Rob C. had zero chance. The "I" part is your bias. If something looks like A, why would you automatically assume B? Why would you take B as fact, when the evidence suggests A? I'm not saying you can't be right, but doesn't it make more sense to go with A? If you're siding with B out of faith or instinct, especially in the face of contrary evidence then that indicates "bias". Now if you have solid evidence to back up B it's a different thing. Guesses, theories, and home-spun alone do not count as "evidence" though The better players were targetted in the first ASS. There were also pre game alliances in that season, but none of that crap happened here. The excuse can be used in ASS, but as much as I like Yau, Ami, and Eliza it can't be used here. The "better" players were targeted in the 1st ASS? Or the higher ranked folk just happened to be knocked out earlier and then people are applying the "reputation" excuse? Rudy was knocked out 2nd due to his foot problems, not because he was a threatening 3rd place finisher. Jenna Morasca, 1 of the winners quit because of her Mom. The correlation of her placement and early evacuation was a coincidence. And as we know Chapera, who had the most lowest rankers of ASS dominated the competitions, increasing the chances that the "better players" went home earlier. There are clear reasons why the people went home earlier went home, and chalking it all up to reputation alone just isn't cutting it I don't see how pre-game alliances has to do with the reputation thing. While I believe they may have existed, I still haven't heard any verified accounts of actual pre-game alliances Yau-Man was targeted by Cirie both for in-game and past-game reasons. She knew he was a likeable threat, he was clearly the most popular Favorite in the entire game, and 1 of the main reasons why he was ousted was that he was aligned with Jonathan, and she didn't trust him, because of HIS reputation. Reputations played a HUGE role in this game. Eliza, was targeted by the Couples alliance right off the bat, because Ozzy had heard that she was shifty and unreliable from her Vanuatu floater game. Again, past reputation, even if it's not involving ranking specifically. Ami, not so much. I don't think that came into play for her as much, besides everyone kind of knowing she'd probably be aligned with Eliza
panurge46		#2984	[-]
Posts: 1016 (05/17/08 2:18 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SwineForkbeard wrote: That's a pretty nebulous thing to give somebody credit for. Strictly speaking, Parvati contributed little to Airai's immunity streak. And if you're going to credit her for unquantifiable factors like "team spirit" it's worth remembering that Eliza probably contributed more to those immunity wins than anybody else, and she called Parvati a "mean person" who made fun of her. First, I think the whole tribe deserves credit for being able to work together compared to NuMalakal who let conflicts grow. Concerning Parvati's own role, it wasn't so nebulous as far as Game Theory goes. In Malakal, Parvati was running the show with Ozzy. In NuAirai, according to Kathy, Jonathan was calling the shots as far as challenge strategy was concerned. For someone to let a rival take the lead and not make waves is very important. Parvati could have tried to lead a revolt to take over and probably signed her own death warrant. Instead, she changed roles, played the follower and that could only have helped create the bond with Nat and Alexis who were also followers, not leaders. Once more, Parvati "Let the King Sit Pretty". "It sounded like Airai had an obvious pecking order, and was hardly a stereotypical happy tribe where everybody felt included." You're almost right: A stereotypical happy tribe is usually happy because they don't have a pecking order. They boot who annoys them at the time or who messes up a challenge. Think of Zhan Hu, Raro, Ulong and Pagong. A tribe with an obvious pecking order need not be happy; they have a leader who isn't necessarily liked by all. It's almost "do your job and shut up". Think of Fei Long, Koror and Tagi. But Airai was in neither of those situations. Airai was a tribe with 2 leaders, two pecking orders, and sometimes those tribes go up in flames. Think of Samburu. Parvati and Jonathan both had their pecking orders. My point above was that Parvati can be credited for going along with Jonathan to make Airai work together and win a few challenges. Playing the game by stages and not rushing anything gave Parvati enough time for her social game to become effective. Soon, Jason became the biggest target. As far as Outback is concerned, I've decided to let Ravu do his own digging. It's his "thesis", it's his credibilty so he should do the work. I had brought him an interview by Mitchell where he gave an almost minute by minute description of events that led to Tina deciding to vote him out and Ravu still thinks Keith was the mastermind. What can be done with that? Last Edited By: panurge46 05/17/08 2:47 PM. Edited 1 times.
XtremeInnovator420		#2985	[-]
Posts: 1214 (05/17/08 2:50 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	You know, I have to say, the comparison between the 2 tribe types is kind of interesting. It makes me wonder how you'd rank Casaya, lol. Also, almost sounds like having 2 leaders for 2 different aspects helped the tribe a lot instead of hurting it.
panurge46		#2986	[-]
Posts: 1017 (05/17/08 3:08 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	We saw that Casaya was a leaderless tribe at first, a ship without a rudder that was on a losing streak against the ideal, 1 leader tribe of LaMina. The recap episode showed what was Casaya's turn-around when they elected Aras as their leader. From that moment, Casaya was the weirdest, most conflicted, sort of ideal tribe ever!! But they listened to that 1 leader... most of the time. The Crazy Casayans were fun to watch. Having a leader in challenges and 1 deciding the voting order could be beneficial but you need a special kind of leader, read a blind one, to accept leading a tribe in challenges but not controlling the votes. The best example was Lopevi where Sarge built up the team for challenges but didn't know how to break it down. Chris took that role, for better (mostly for himself) or worse (for everybody else). Usually, tribes with 2 leaders have huge conflicts and few survive. Ogakor was one of the ones that survived because Tina was able to take the power away from Jerri without destroying the tribe. Samburu and Yasur weren't so lucky.
RavuRules		#2987	[-]
Posts: 1660 (05/17/08 3:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	As far as Outback is concerned, I've decided to let Ravu do his own digging. It's his "thesis", it's his credibilty so he should do the work. I've already done the work. I've looked all around for stuff on Outback and it's just an old season. We've covered this all many times. If there's extra or new information that needs to be brought to light, then obviously that'd be on you and anyone else. If you have such a strong opinion that contradicts the TV edit, then it would indicate that you have some solid counter-evidence (and you've brought up some stuff but none of them really contradict it) or that you just have a heavy emotional bias which makes you stand by your faith like a Christian to the Bible's truth I had brought him an interview by Mitchell where he gave an almost minute by minute description of events that led to Tina deciding to vote him out and Ravu still thinks Keith was the mastermind. What can be done with that? And I DID address it. Quite a bit I might add. That was Page 127 and probably some other ones too. The key contribution of that interview was that Tina figured out who Kimmi voted for which would later break the tie-breaker. Other than that, none of the account actually contradicts the TV edit where we saw Keith doing all the dirty work for the alliance. Until I see a blatant sign that Tina was the mastermind who had already mapped out that she was going to turn on Jerri/Mitchell/Amber and had purposely been controlling Keith/Colby from the start, I'm obviously going to go with what I saw with my own eyes. From the TV edit, Tina didn't start really taking countermeasures to Jerri/Amber/Mitchell until AFTER Jerri called out their friendship at TC, and even then, it seemed more like a cooperative effort between Keith/Colby with Colby being the best positioned of the 3 (and 6 for that matter), and Keith doing all the scrambling. Your interviews don't contradict any of this at all
panurge46		#2988	[-]
Posts: 1018 (05/17/08 3:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Ravu, you weren't there, either in the Outback or even watching week to week and reading all the interviews. I don't want to get into it again. If you think I'm blinded by faith, at times you sound like you think the earth is flat. I'll just add the following: - Do you know what it took Tina to get Colby to vote with Keith against Mitchell? She had to promise him that Keith wouldn't be given a chance to win the million. Kinda also explains why HE couldn't take Keith at the end. - It wasn't Jerri talking about her friendship that forced the move. It was the losing streak. That's what convinced Tina first and then Colby it had to be done. Just before leaving for TC, you hear Colby saying Keith has no idea he's going. Then you hear Tina voting and saying, something happended on the walk to TC. That, right there, should tell you the TV edit was incomplete. The internet went looking everywhere for what happened. Finally, Mitchell told us and now you what happened. You've ignored it. Tina's scheming happened during the walk. Last Edited By: panurge46 05/17/08 3:43 PM. Edited 1 times.
craig		#2989	[-]
Posts: 13157 (05/17/08 3:58 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Parvati was the 3rd best player in challenges for New Aariai, behind Eliza and Jason. Eliza won it with a comback in the puzzle portion of the ep 5 and 7 ICs and her and Jason did all the real work in the ep8 IC (Parv sitting out was just letting her friend Nat have a turn, it's not like swinging the bags was hard). In ep6 IC it was a combo of James's strength and Eliza\Parv balancing on the poles. Eliza\Parv were also the MVP of the ep5 cat and mouse RC which got the winning streak started. Jonathan only played in one IC for them. Parv also didn't give 100% in the Final IC because she new both girls would take her and didn't want to boot one of them off. She alos found the idol but didn't bring it back for stategic reasons.
RavuRules		#2990	[-]
Posts: 1661 (05/17/08 4:07 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Ravu, you weren't there, either in the Outback or even watching week to week and reading all the interviews. I don't want to get into it again. If you think I'm blinded by faith, at times you sound like you think the earth is flat. It's why I've given you as much leeway as I have. But saying that the burden of proof is on me? Is that reasonable given that you know I don't have access to those interviews? Clearly, you are convinced that she is Benedict Tina for a reason. I'm asking for concrete ways in which she was the mastermind. Tell me techniques, or specific instances of manipulation, etc. Simply saying she was a mastermind vaguely isn't enough though, and playing the "You weren't around. You're disqualified from any kind of judging of early seasons" card obviously isn't going to sit well with me. If I'm misinformed about things, then it'd be your job to get me up to speed appropriately I'll just add the following: - Do you know what it took Tina to get Colby to vote with Keith against Mitchell? She had to promise him that Keith wouldn't be given a chance to win the million. Kinda also explains why HE couldn't take Keith at the end. So you're saying that she offered Colby a F2 deal. It doesn't excuse why he didn't simply break the deal for the $500,000 though, especially since that deal favored her more than him as we saw - It wasn't Jerri talking about her friendship that forced the move. It was the losing streak. That's what convinced Tina first and then Colby it had to be done. I'm sure it was a bit of both. I mean, Tina flat out said that was a motivating factor in the TV edit. Anyways, we know the losing streak is partly a result of your "Game Theory" of booting Kel out so early Just before leaving for TC, you hear Colby saying Keith has no idea he's going. Then you hear Tina voting and saying, something happended on the walk to TC. That, right there, should tell you the TV edit was incomplete. Well we know that. The TV edits are always incomplete (hence, the "edit"). They do it to create suspense and arguably to create story lines. However, that also doesn't make them completely fictional by default either. Just because there is no proof against God doesn't mean he exists and vice versa. Ultimately, Colby was the swing vote in that scenario, and the decision and power was his. At best, Tina could have been the 1 to manipulate and sway his mind at the last minute, but we don't have any clear support for that, nor would it be a particularly amazing accomplishment given that we know Colby's strategic intuitions are somewhat average The internet went looking everywhere for what happened. Finally, Mitchell told us and now you what happened. You've ignored it. Tina's scheming happened during the walk. Again, even if I accept that, at best Tina would get credit for social game. And we've already seen how her social game has limits. If Colby made all his Outback blunders because of Tina, then that's basically the extent of her abilities. She had no real emotional foothold on Jerri or Amber in Outback, and she couldn't sway Rupert/Rudy in ASS. I wouldn't expect her too. It's really tough to have natural connections to everybody Even if Tina has been a mastermind, most of the winners have been "masterminds" in terms of results. I would imagine that if I'm underrating her, then at best, she is like Cirie's level of social and strategic game. There will numerous scenarios where Tina won't be able to finish or make her way into the jury, whereas other winners could do just about the same as she can and also possibly win immunities when necessary
XtremeInnovator420		#2991	[-]
Posts: 1215 (05/17/08 4:28 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Just out of curiousity Panurge, so I don't have to further flood this thread here, but is there some sort of "tribe sorting" thread? Y'know, devoted to what kinds of tribes work best in what situation, examples of why they worked and sort of debate over what the best overall kind of leadership on a tribe is? Well...as civilized a debate as can be had at Sucks. Just asking because I don't remember seeing a thread like that, and think it might be interesting.
panurge46		#2992	[-]
Posts: 1019 (05/17/08 4:50 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	XI420, this might interest you: http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/10010 I also talked about it in this thread but back so far, I don't know which page anymore. Ravu wrote: Tell me techniques, or specific instances of manipulation You mean again?!! Not happening. It was amusing last year but, like an old joke, it isn't funny anymore. It's your "thesis", you do the work.
RavuRules		#2993	[-]
Posts: 1662 (05/17/08 5:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I did the work and found nothing. So as far as I'm concerned, these techniques don't exist. I'm forced to assume any further talk of secret Tina techniques that we don't know about as pure speculation or fantastical musings made up by fans who didn't understand how the game worked back in the day I've already incorporated the material that you have brought up in the past into the analysis, so I'm not asking for the old stuff. So the "You mean again?!" is not what I'm talking about. If you're basing your opinions strictly on the material that you've already presented to me, then this is clearly just a matter of just agreeing to disagree
panurge46		#2994	[-]
Posts: 1020 (05/17/08 6:49 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm sorry but the following made me laugh "pure speculation or fantastical musings made up by fans" Considering that you had written this on the previous page: Ravu wrote: From an overt control perspective, Jonathan gained: Yul/Jonathan Yul/Jonathan/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy Jonathan got rid of: Adam/Nate Parvati/Nate Adam/Parvati/Nate Adam/Candice/Parvati/Nate Nate/Ozzy Nate/Sundra Nate/Ozzy/Sundra While knowing that Raro would be pissed, he might've thought there was a chance to keep his Raro alliances (since they'd need him): Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati Adam/Candice/Jonathan/Parvati/Nate And ended up empowering: Yul/Becky Yul/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra Yul/Becky/Sundra/Ozzy....... I didn't hear any of that on the TV edit! I especially liked that Jonathan got rid of Ozzy and gained Ozzy at the same time. So, if I were to say that Tina got rid of Mitchell to get rid of Jerri but also gained Jerri as an ally, you'd see her genius. I'm getting dizzy just thinking of the possibilities!
SwineForkbeard		#2995	[-]
Posts: 1529 (05/17/08 7:00 PM) I need a hobby Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	RavuRules wrote: Colby however, is a different story. She may indeed have truly manipulated him given that his game focus seemed to tank by the end of the game. If we give him the benefit of the doubt like colleenlover does, then he may he conscious decision to lose. I personally don't see that as the case. I think he just suffered from underestimating his opponent--a lack of history and the realization that a female and UTR player could win the game and earn the majority of a jury's respect over a respected alpha male like himself. It's not that simple. Colby may have underestimated Tina (I don't think anybody is saying he decided to lose, although he seemed aware of the risk he was taking), but there was no chauvinistic conceit that no woman could make a more compelling case for the win than he could. You can still see his voting confessional on the website from when he voted for Elisabeth: Elisabeth, you know how I feel about you, and plain and simply, I don't think there's a way in the world that I would win a million bucks if you were sitting next to me in the final 2, and that is the only reason I am writing your name down right now. This is why Colby is such an enigma. Just a few days before booting Keith, he was willing to keep him over someone with whom he had a strong emotional bond for the sake of expediency, fearing that she would win against him. Who knows why he thought Elisabeth was so much more formidable an opponent than Tina, but had he not cared at all about winning, he would have had no reason to vote that way. I'm pretty sure Keith had more previous votes than Elisabeth, so Colby could have gotten rid of him at that point if he had wanted to. Last Edited By: SwineForkbeard 05/17/08 7:23 PM. Edited 1 times.
Quiddity		#2996	[-]
Posts: 2539 (05/17/08 7:26 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Colby was in it to win it from the start, and all the way to the end. I don't buy any of this speculation that he purposely picked Tina knowing that he would lose against her. He was going all out, full blazing to win it. He fully expected to beat Tina, he just had no idea that she was so well liked by the jury and was so more capable than him at talking to them. He made a huge, huge mistake because by that point of the game he was mad at Keith and figured that he'd get everything he wanted, both Keith out of the game at third, his best friend Tina in second, and himself the winner. Oops, things didn't work that well on the last one. I for the record couldn't be happier. I'll never forgive Colby & Tina for their totally uncalled for, vicious, arrogant, and self-righteous behavior that they displayed after Keith's exit from the game. Aside from Gabriel getting stabbed in the back by his Rotu tribemates, its probably the most disheartening thing I've seen on Survivor.
mtj1282		#2997	[-]
Posts: 1140 (05/17/08 7:30 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Quiddity wrote: Colby was in it to win it from the start, and all the way to the end. I don't buy any of this speculation that he purposely picked Tina knowing that he would lose against her. He was going all out, full blazing to win it. He fully expected to beat Tina, he just had no idea that she was so well liked by the jury and was so more capable than him at talking to them. He made a huge, huge mistake because by that point of the game he was mad at Keith and figured that he'd get everything he wanted, both Keith out of the game at third, his best friend Tina in second, and himself the winner. Oops, things didn't work that well on the last one. I for the record couldn't be happier. I'll never forgive Colby & Tina for their totally uncalled for, vicious, arrogant, and self-righteous behavior that they displayed after Keith's exit from the game. Aside from Gabriel getting stabbed in the back by his Rotu tribemates, its probably the most disheartening thing I've seen on Survivor. How bout the horrible treatment dreamz and cassandra recieved from lisi and stacy? or Twila from the younger girls? I still hate mia to this day for how hateful she was towards twila!
Quiddity		#2998	[-]
Posts: 2541 (05/17/08 7:40 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, I wasn't too happy about the first either. And while I hate both Twila & Mia, I certainly hate Mia more. But I wouldn't say those were moments that absolutely disgusted me like the Gabe & Keith thing did. Keith was sitting on the water falls, reflecting on his life, and was so moved by this life changing experience that he no longer cared if he won or lost. It was a great moment for him in my opinion. A minute after Colby voted him out, Colby and Tina are bashing him to death and saying all these bad things about him. It was absurd. Likewise the Gabriel thing. Sensei Kreise wrote a terrific write-up of it, I wish I could remember where to find it. Gabe was out there having this great experience, creating a society, and was so much of the reason why Rotu was so successful. And power hungry John panicked and destroyed it all. They're just not comparable in my eyes. Probably because the editing was so much better in those earlier seasons.
XtremeInnovator420		#2999	[-]
Posts: 1216 (05/17/08 7:41 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Cassandra, maybe, but by the end of Fiji, I'm sure Dreamz deserved every bit of the harsh treatment he got.
Dictatorship		#3000	[-]
Posts: 2637 (05/17/08 7:53 PM) Crying my eyes out and shaking so much :( Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	3000 troll posts.

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