S-16 Edgic (editing and logic)

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Phoenix1269		#4821	[-]
Posts: 152 (05/11/08 3:36 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	wow! lots has happened here recently....i've been away ... swamped at work with no time for play! Just wanted to mention, that i still back Cirie winning... and obviously we'll all find out later today what's what. I can't wait, very excited. I've had moments of serious doubt about Cirie being able to win this...but decided that this was a good thing. The winner needs doubt, right. Heck, I even had myself convinced that Erik was gonna pull off something amazing... yeah, amazingly stupid is more like it! Yikes! Anyway.... I've been rereading some of the early posts and my notes from early on, and I noticed a comment about Jonny Fairplay and how he was like this all star season's richard hatch... so whoever was connected to him would be the winner.... but... upon reflection (and the luxury of time) maybe it's not the DIRECT connection....but the indirect connection. So...while Parv and Amanda had more direct connections to JFP (because of their alliance trying to bring him in and Parv's little talky-walky with him)....Cirie had NO connection with him....in fact she had an anti-connection. She was passed up by BOTH early alliances in favor of JFP. Even Natalie had a directly edited moment linking her to JFP....in E2, when the Fans learned who was voted off... there was a face shot of Natalie clapping and nodding and mouthing the words "good job." In this season, of these final 4 women.... only Cirie has an indirect link to JFP..... in JP's season, he was ultimately ousted because of a mini and temporary alliance of 3 women... and the winner in his season's strategy was "as long as it isn't me." Just something i thought of as odd. I was also struck by how important reputation was as an early theme....and even one that has carried through (people were voted out early because of reputation...good or bad.... JFP, Yau, Ami to some degree, Eliza) and now, reputation is being touted again....Erik's reputation of having no integrity/no value to his word, Amanda's "reputation" of being a jury threat, etc. Perhaps this is how Cirie gets her votes... she has a good, overall reputation (that extends seasons), therefore her jury connections are all generally positive vs. someone like Parv's who has been getting her hands really dirty. I also feel that there are still several early "cues" or prophecies if you will - that are still partly or wholly unresolved. ... just to name a few off the top of my head and some random late night thoughts about them.... 1. JFP's Slow and Steady comment ? Well... editting wise.... not Natalie... she went from inv to OTTNN5 in 2.2 seconds. Cirie and Amanda have had slow starts (Episode 1) with peaks and valleys, Parv had a great start editing wise (like the hare in the race) and ended up taking a nap part way through the race....had to do some damage control, and...now.... is she still trying to catch up or is she burning out again??? 2. JFP's haven't these people ever played/watched the game before? I'd ask this about Amanda and Parv... if people HAD paid attention, Cirie wouldn't have been passed over in favour of JFP... and they'd know Cirie is good with people, reads them well and is SMART. Ozzy at the start of Episode 3 wanted to get rid of Yau, Jonathan and Cirie.... yet, Cirie is still there. I can't quite make the case for Amanda, these people would have missed part of her show as they were filming while it was still playing. Parv was neither here nor there in her season... mostly a party-time fun-girl character. 3. JFP's Fans dumber than they look? Well... so far... yes. But we still have Natalie....and I have to wonder how smart it was to get rid of the only other fan in favour of a 3-1 faves majority?? 4. Penner's comment that the couples are stupid? well, we still have Parv and Amanda, and they have been playing reasonably smart. Ozzy, did not play it smart, and James... well, he saw what was happening, but didn't know what to do about it. The biggest question is whether P & A can continue to play smart.... like really, Parv, you probably need to get rid of Amanda... 5. Cirie's plan of breaking up the couples? Well... the boys are gone, but there is still one couple left in the the Coupley alliance that Cirie needs to do something about.... 6. Mary's prediction that a fan will win? Only Natalie is left from the original "FAN" tribe.... but Cirie was identified early as a fan of the show (in both he first season and E1... and she was also shown connecting to the Fans at home). Parvati also called out Cirie as the biggest fan of the remaining women when she & Cirie had the little exchange of "beating Erik" at the Reward challenge. 7. Penner's "Lamb to the slaughter" to Parvati? definately unresolved.... it's between Cirie and Parv.... 8. Eliza snaking Parvati in the end? Well... you could say that Eliza didn't... because after all, Parv was part of the group who voted her out, and Parv was pretty mean to her at TC....but Eliza still has a say.... and at the end of the day.... a win comes down to a difference of 1 vote.... (très cool if the F3 is like a 2-2-2 tie and the last vote... Eliza's....determined the winner, that would be so awesome!) 9. Penner's bigger picture comment? It was said to Eliza.... but there was a cut to Cirie listening to what Penner was saying..... and earlier, we had Eliza comparing herself to Cire (to Jonathan no less!).... 10. Eliza's taking the goat to the F2 comment. If it is an F2... i think it would be a result of all of the injuries/removals from the game that has messed up the order of the challenges verses how many people would be left in the game... several years ago I read somewhere that the number of challenges and type of challenges (but not the order) had to be pre-arranged with the CRTC due to some gaming laws .... this is the only thing i can come up with if it does become an F2.... otherwise it's F3. But regardless.... No one in their right mind would take Amanda to the F3. 11. Alexis' E1 comment on the fans knowing the favs strengths/weaknesses... from what we've seen.... Parv has changed SOME of her game, however there is still a lot of the flirty, lazy strumpet about her. She's all about her beauty rest and suntanning and flirting with whomever and pee water and what have you. She doesn't really take herself seriously.... how will others? She couldn't believe that James (her survivor boyfriend) would give her credit for a good move.... how can she believe that there is hope for her to convince a jury that she's done a good job? She's got a big job to overcome her first season reputation. Amanda.... we have only recently learned is apparenty the best strategic player out there (WTF??) and is playing a great social game. Hmmmm. It took them 12 episode to tell us this. While a change from China... not good for her chances. Cirie... has come a long way. Fear was her biggest issue as identified by her epsiode 1 clip. She was afraid of EVERYTHING, even leaves. Cirie has OVERCOME her problem from her first season. We had a whole lot of time dedicated to telling us this. Alexis, in her exit episode, wins a major reward.... she takes Nat and Cirie.... we hear nothing of Alexis on this reward, we see Nat helping her mom down some stairs, and we see Cirie and her husband swimming with the jellies.... several times. Cirie tells us about the trip. Cirie tells us that she has grown and is no longer afraid. As for the final four to final three moment,... I think it's almost a certain that Cirie goes up against someone (amanda maybe?) in a tiebreaker and wins. I noticed the fire at night scene too.... i thought it was very interesting....I feel like if Cirie were being given the best playah eve-ah edit.... she'd be edited more like she was on Exile Island.... this time, she has been well hidden by the members of the Couples Alliance, and the Black Widow Brigade and the OTTness of Erik and the Ami drama and the Jonathan drama....and Natalie's jugular flossing extravaganza.... But shown just enough that we know she has been in on pretty much everything going on.... but like a queen bee, she's keeping her hands from getting too dirty. Her numbers are good.... vis, mor diff, confessional counts, etc I also think Nat will be in the F3 (Alexis has told us who she'll be voting for!).... I love those final comments, what they edit for us to see, is often quite telling. I just cannot justify a win for her tho'..... i mean really, she seems like a red herring to me. Started way too late. But i guess "keeping my head down and working heard" as an early strtaegy to explain the absense could be viable. I just dont see it tho'. I feel like Amanda has come on too strong recently to be a viable choice for a winner. I was also thinking back to the China finale....she was soooooo disappointed. Granted, I know the girl can act, damn, she shoulda won an oscar for her TC Performance with the HII....but, this seemed like genuine, profound disappointment....like she knew without a doubt that she lost out on both chances at a million. Parv still has a good edit... a very good edit, except for the small, cumulative, slightly negative comments that occur almost every episode. I think it's okay if the audience doesn't really like the winner....but they have to respect them. I am not sure that Parv is respected. She also doesn't fit in with my female winners editing theory (where an Episode 1 CP for a female is a bad thing)..... Interesting thing, only PArv has a CP in E1 of the remaining 4....so if anyone other than Parv wins, then there may very well be something to be said about the E1 rule as it applies to women. Anyway....here's to an interesting season. Looking for some resolution for the loose ends.... It's been fun. i'm off to bed.... i can barely keep my eyes open. Go Cirie!
AllMenAreIslands		#4822	[-]
Posts: 23729 (05/11/08 9:22 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Phoenix, that's a fantastic summary of Cirie's connections & chances. I still think that Cirie has been edited to make the viewers vote her to win the bonus prize, because for some reason she doesn't win the million. Amanda may indeed look to US like a poor choice to sit next to, but she has a major stumbling block yet to overcome: ability to summarize her game and field difficult questions. From the viewer's perspective, either Cirie or Amanda winning would not be a surprise. Being able to sell your game to the Jury as most deserving is the key - if you can show you played a steady game that would answer JFP's original comment. Being sure of your allies to the point where you don't even look for the HII: cocky? Or in control? Anne, this is the Spec forum. Nothing is too speculative.
unduli clone		#4823	[-]
Posts: 2770 (05/11/08 9:47 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Barely got my votes in: Amanda - CPM4 Cirie - CP4 Erik - OTTM5 Natalie - MOR3 Parvati - UTRN2 And of course I'm staying with my pre-merge pick of Parvati. In regards to this week's ratings, I felt that Cirie, Amanda and Natalie all had nuances of tone, but not enough for a complete N or P. I thought Amanda's tone editing was the most definitive though, and as such I marked her as dynamic neutral; it's more of a skewing N dynamic neutral than a P/N dynamic neutral for me, though. I apologize for the visibility, I only made it to Warrior's chart once and am running off my impressions of the episode. Parvati was definitely N; she appeared not only cocky, but lazy and inadequate (telling Cirie to win the RC, failing miserably in the IC). This is one of her N's that I stand the most behind. The Edgician in me screams GO PARVATI, but that fan in me is loudly cheering: CIRIE FTW!!!!
OnlyTheHunter		#4824	[-]
Posts: 1522 (05/11/08 10:41 AM) Edgician Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Happy mother's day to all, even to ex's. Our resident hot momma, nikki, must be overloaded too often. Hope you have a relaxing day. Finale tonight. Can't wait to watch. I can't rate the season overall as a fan as one of my five choices (Vanuatu, Pearl Islands, China, Palau, Cook if you ask, with Borneo right there) but whatever the outcome, it'll be one I'll rewatch over time. I pretty much never look back on some (Guatemala, Allstars, Exile Island). I have been gifted the Thailand season, I know its reputation, and when I watch the whole thing this summer we'll see how it goes. I think the only eps I've ever seen of it previously were the fake merge and the one where, uhhhh, is it Stephanie, who cut herself off with others tries to reconnect? An ep or so before the merge. I'll say it now, since it's been quiet here and I can soliliquize a little, I love, yes love the fallen comrades segment. I like the slower pace before the last immunity challenge. The finales from season one on have a different and wonderful feel to them. My only concern is that Final TC doesn't feel chopped up. Cook Islands, a season I really loved, had a horribly edited Fnal TC. It gave me the needed info, but you could tell they cut parts out. I know from reading that parts of Pearl Islands had to be excised, but it transitions very well. Final TC is the explanation of the season's edit. You should make a short list of questions you have lingering that you want to know, and see how many are answered by the end of Final TC. Have fun watching Parvati win. If you can. :-) Michael
GelEGuy2		#4825	[-]
Posts: 20 (05/11/08 12:47 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I've been reading the edgic posts for weeks now; this has really raised my appreciation of this season even more. I wanted to say that, for all those who seem to be shifting away from Parvati now because they can't see her winning in a jury vote, you're not making your assessments based on edgic. Amanda can't win. If she faces the jury, and then wins because of her charm and non-backstabbing (except against Erik) ways, it'll be a ridiculously non-suspenseful ending. If she's winning, we wouldn't have heard person after person say, "She'll be too hard to beat in the finals." She could easily go the finals and lose, because she messes up royally in front of the jury. I could see that. But why would we be shown all this Amanda-will-win-if-she-makes-the-finals stuff, only to see her make the finals and win?! Natalie can't win. Too many INVs, plain and simple. I'd only be slightly more surprised to see Sebastian, some geeky, little, bespectacled guy win, to all the remaining players' amazement: "I really played under the radar, Jeff. And I've been sitting in the back at all the tribal councils, so no one ever noticed me." Cirie has made so many masterful moves in this game. She orchestrated the ousters of Yau Man, Joel, Ozzy, and Erik. Yet has she been painted as the mastermind? No. And, in fact, her strategic moves have been somewhat downplayed, and Parvati has received more or equal credit. In the Ozzy boot TC, we see her quite pleased with herself, but it's Parvati who's portrayed as the stone-cold player. And as Jeff says, "That was a very big blindside," we see Cirie look to Parvati, not the other way around. Parvati sits there, clearly thinking how this will affect her long-term game. Cirie is portrayed as happy with the move as an immediate move. Parvati is portrayed as having been in control of the Ozzy boot, and I think that will be highlighted as the key strategic move of the game. It hasn't been, "Parvati went along with Cirie's plan," but "Parvati and Cirie organized," or just "Parvati organized." Parvati is the only player we've seen really talking with a far-sighted strategy. And she's been the only player who has received doubt that she could win a final jury vote. That means, IMO, that she wins. In fact, I can also make a non-edgic argument as to how she does win in a final jury vote, even against Amanda and Cirie. First, all she needs is, possibly, three votes. Not that difficult. Second, I could see a confrontation between her and Ozzy eating up much of the oxygen at the FTC. She apologizes, but then explains her strategic reasoning very logically. This might not win over Ozzy or James, who are two of the worst strategizers this game has ever seen, but I could see it winning over people like Eliza (who certainly participated in her fair share of backstabs in Vanuatu), Erik, and Jason, Alexis, and Natalie/Cirie (who were all in on the Ozzy boot). With all the focus on why Parvati made the decisions that she did, this would make any attempts by Cirie to claim any credit seem like an afterthought. i.e., Ozzy: Parvati, you're such a bitch. I can't believe you did that to me. You're worse than those women I was on Foursome with! Parvati: Sorry, Oz. But I didn't come here to play and lose. It had to be done. Ozzy: [Expletive] You're a bitch! And a [expletive]! [Cut to a shocked-looking Eliza] Cirie: Um, can I just say that I actually... Ozzy: You're a bitch, Parvati! [String of expletives] [Cut to a shocked-looking Jeff] I could easily see a similar thing happening with Erik (well, without all the cursing and animosity; frankly, someone else might bring it up). All the attention would be on how Amanda and Natalie really drew him in, only to stab him hard in the back. I have to agree with some of the sentiment here: Cirie is my pick as the best person to have ever played this game. Period. But she isn't winning. I hope I'm wrong.
fat little fingers		#4826	[-]
Posts: 5517 (05/11/08 12:49 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Really good review, Phoenix. ..and I have to wonder how smart it was to get rid of the only other fan in favour of a 3-1 faves majority?? Alliances usually hold together for a number of reasons, but they all boil down to loyalty. Loyalty is what keeps your alliance-mates from turning on you at the last few TCs and loyalty is your ace-in-the-hole when those you've stabbed in the back try to tear a strip off you at final TC. Many a Survivor has been won with a good speech about playing the game hard and well. And a key component is showing that you were true to your "real" alliance,who now sit next to you. Cirie tells us about the trip. Cirie tells us that she has grown and is no longer afraid. Yes, she's definitely answered the Alexis theme confessional. She was weaker than Parvati's edit in Ep1 and the merge ep, but otherwise there's nothing that doesn't fit Edgic in her edit. Parv still has a good edit... a very good edit, except for the small, cumulative, slightly negative comments that occur almost every episode. True on both counts. Parvati's edit has been at the right place at the right time, (except for that string of UTRs, which are about one UTR1 too long to make me comfortable). But, she also has been given the occasional cocky, arrogant comment that has a slightly wrong note to it for the winner. The inclusion of her comment that she didn't need to bother looking for the HII, because she knew she had the numbers and that she'd instead take a little holiday from the game, still bugs me. It's gonna be a good evening for Edgic players. All I can say is... Go Parv!
fat little fingers		#4827	[-]
Posts: 5518 (05/11/08 12:55 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	but otherwise there's nothing that doesn't fit Edgic in her edit. I take this back. One of Cirie's biggest Edgic lacks is references, especially early and mid-game references to the end, the win. Yes, we heard her say the she was still just that woman sitting on the couch, but there is no projection into the present game, much less an end-game comment.
Jenny du Jour		#4828	[-]
Posts: 943 (05/11/08 12:55 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Relynn wrote: Jenny du Jour wrote: Fine, then look at Danni, 41 by season's end, surrounded by two OTT returning players. That could be exactly the case with Amanda (if she's our winner) Parv/Cirie are much more interesting characters. Although in the case of Stephanie, she was such a beloved character in Palau, that they probably felt the need to over the top explain why she loses. Wait, no no no. What I was saying is Danni, a new player, had 41 confessionals. She was surrounded by Bobby Jon and Stephenie, the latter of which was very visible (with 62 confessionals!!). If you want to compare this season to Guatemala, you would be saying that Natalie, the new player, would be Danni, and Amanda, the favorite from last season, is Stephanie. But neither player has a good confessional count at all! And neither does Parvati! The whole reason I brought Danni's confessional count into this was because someone was trying to tell me that I can't compare a female winner's confessional count to a male winner's confessional count, but I feel I certainly can, by using Danni as my example.
GrenadeJumper85		#4829	[-]
Posts: 4707 (05/11/08 1:01 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	So there's different rules for female winners and male winners? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of Edgic then?! o_0
Kitty Pryde1		#4830	[-]
Posts: 4045 (05/11/08 1:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	One of the biggest reasons I think Cirie will be in the final 3 is because there's been absolutely no build-up to it. No one has said that Cirie needs to go and no one has suggested her as a boot target since maybe the third episode. In the last episode alone, Natalie and Amanda were both suggested as being hard to beat in front of the jury, while Cirie and Parvati were seen as being Erik's only chance at winning the game. Cirie's doubt comes from whether or not a bitter jury would award her the win over Amanda or Natalie.
GelEGuy2		#4831	[-]
Posts: 21 (05/11/08 1:15 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Parvati's latest Exile treatment could go either way. It could be evidence that she was overly cocky, and/or that she didn't anticipate being blindsided by Amanda and Cirie at F4. We'll look back and say, "That was a message that she would lose the jury vote for being too confident!" or "That was foreshadowing the ULTIMATE blindside!" Or it could be evidence that she was quite prescient about her status in this game. Somewhat similar to when Richard took his hand off the post so quickly in Borneo at the final IC. We'll look back and say, "Yeah, she was coolly in control the whole time." If you're that cocky in front of the jury, that's bad. (Matthew falling so soon in Amazon didn't win him any votes, since people on the jury suspected it was a stunt, and therefore was evidence of his cockiness that he'd definitely be taken to the F2.) If I remember correctly, Parvati didn't announce to the jury, after Jeff asked about the HII, "I know everyone's looking at me. I didn't even bother looking for the stupid idol, Jeff. Amanda needed it; I didn't. I'm just that good. I spent the time there just sunning my gorgeous body. How do you all like my tan? Ozzy?" Comparisons to Aras' time on Exile aren't apt, because Aras knew that no idol was there. We'll know in hindsight what it meant edgically, but I'd say there are no conclusions that one can draw from it now.
Jedijake		#4832	[-]
Posts: 5156 (05/11/08 1:15 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Besides Natalie, anyone of the 3 (Amanda, Parvait, Cirie) winning could be supported in some way by Edgic. Edgic will succeed with all 3.
chapera rocks		#4833	[-]
Posts: 8892 (05/11/08 1:18 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	No it won't. Amanda had a horrible start, and that is enough to rule someone out. 3 UTRs and an INV = edgic death. If Amanda wins, Edgic fails miserably. Even with Parvati, she had maybe 4 strong episodes, and a hell of a lot of weak ones, so that wouldn't even be a huge success, IMO.
Kitty Pryde1		#4834	[-]
Posts: 4047 (05/11/08 1:19 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	No. Amanda winning would be an Edgic failure.
daggers44		#4835	[-]
Posts: 432 (05/11/08 1:19 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, for me, only a Cirie win would be a win for edgic. Parv/Amanda are too under the radar.
astroline		#4836	[-]
Posts: 1151 (05/11/08 1:39 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	For me, only a Parvati win is a 100% victory for Edgic (and myself, finally)!
Jenny du Jour		#4837	[-]
Posts: 948 (05/11/08 1:39 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	GrenadeJumper85 wrote: So there's different rules for female winners and male winners? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of Edgic then?! o_0 There's apparently different rules for Danni and female winners after all-stars.
ProbstFan123		#4838	[-]
Posts: 10133 (05/11/08 1:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	How can an Amanda win be a success for edgic when 0% of people picked her to win by the merge? It doesn't count if you put her on the radar after her big episode a couple of weeks ago. Edgic effectively ends at the merge, remember? Parvati win = huge edgic victory - she is the official edgic pick, after all. Cirie win = still an edgic victory, but not as big Amanda win = edgic failure Natalie win = failure of epic proportions But really, an Amanda win would be just as much a failure as a Natalie win. Neither of them had any edgic support at all by the merge. At least Cirie was the winner pick by some people, which is why it would still be a victory for edgic if she won. Last Edited By: ProbstFan123 05/11/08 1:48 PM. Edited 1 times.
Relynn		#4839	[-]
Posts: 603 (05/11/08 1:48 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chapera rocks wrote: No it won't. Amanda had a horrible start, and that is enough to rule someone out. 3 UTRs and an INV = edgic death. If Amanda wins, Edgic fails miserably. Even with Parvati, she had maybe 4 strong episodes, and a hell of a lot of weak ones, so that wouldn't even be a huge success, IMO. I have to give this with you in the beginning, I didn't think Amanda had a great start.. BUT, she was present in those first few episodes, she was just in the background. Once she caught that shark though she was front and center.
GrenadeJumper85		#4840	[-]
Posts: 4710 (05/11/08 1:48 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If Edgic ends at the merge, then Parvati as the winner pick is puzzling, because aside from the first episode, her pre-merge is abysmal.

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