| Started By | Comment | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 AllMenAreIslands |
|
||
|
Posts: 23709 (05/10/08 9:06 AM) Registered user |
Anne, there's a confessional count thread somewhere around here.
It's stickied in this forum !!! Although the thread title says it's only updated thru Ep 11, it actually contains the Ep 12 and Ep 13 conf counts on the last page. Here's a linky. |
||
|
RageBot |
|
||
|
Posts: 115 (05/10/08 9:10 AM) |
I think that this season will set the edgic guidelines for other seasons with returning players.
If Parvati wins, than we just follow the ordinary guidelines, unless we see the edit is specificly about why a player lost. If she loses, than we just write a guideline about seasons with returning players, that the "edgic winner" is the actual loser of the show. |
||
|
9RedWing19 |
|
||
|
Posts: 2138 (05/10/08 9:19 AM) Registered User |
Remember how nasty Steph was to LydiaWell let's see: Lydia targeted Steph in the chop challenge, giving her 2 hits. Lydia sulked like crazy when Cindy took Rafe on the chop-challenge reward because Cindy didn't take her. Lydia said that she deserved to eat. This is the same woman who made a big deal out of moving up one spot in the F9 RC (the one where Jamie volunteered to take the worst meal to make up for his taunting at the merge challenge (where Lydia decided to eat, not compete)), how she was eternally grateful, bleah, bleah, bleah.. This is the same woman who cost her team victory at the F8 RC and thereby lost a chance to eat. This is the same woman who despite her self-proclaimed hunger bought a mosquito net (rather than food) at the F6 auction. This is the same woman who, after all the supposed nasty treatment she received, agreed to lend Steph money at the F6 auction so that Steph could bid on the family visit prize. |
||
|
AllMenAreIslands |
|
||
|
Posts: 23711 (05/10/08 9:40 AM) Registered user |
Good points, RedWing. I'd forgotten all of that about her. But conversely, has anyone left in this game been shown to be like Lydia? And by that I mean,
even those on the jury? They've been stupid and misread the clues, etc., but can you make such a list for any of the final 4?
|
||
|
AnneZob |
|
||
|
Posts: 110 (05/10/08 10:35 AM) |
Thanks AMAI. I see that Parvati only had 1 confessional in Episode 13. In all the previous winners the absolute minimum number of confessionals in the
penultimate episode by the winner was 3, all female - Danni, Vee and Tina. Even Amber had 5 confessionals in the penultimate episode.
People have been saying that Parvati's confessional count throughout the season has been so low for various reasons like having 20 people (though that didn't stop Cirie getting an average to high count for a female winner...). However now there are only a few people left. Yet Parvati's count *still* remain ultralow. If Parvati wins her stats are going to be completely different from any other person who has ever won survivor. Amanda's 2 confessionals are a bit better but still lower than even Danni and Vee in their penultimate episodes and 3 lower than Amber. Cirie's 4 confessionals fit in well with the stats that all the other female winners have had. This by the way is one of the reasons why I say Parvati is a distraction. She is much more visible than Vee and Danni ever were but her confessional count is so much lower than even the most UTR winners. Also there is the complex tribe thing etc. All of the previous female winners have had their confessional count increase quite a bit in the last episode. Vee and Tina went from 3 in the penultimate to 15 in the last. Sandra went from 6 to 9. So the confessional count in the last episode will be a good indicator of who wins. Actually interestingly enough just by looking at the confessional stats, if Cirie wins her stats would most resemble Tina. Tina actually had a worse 1st episode than Cirie (0 confessionals) but otherwise both had a low-key start. Then both got lots of confessionals in the next couple of episodes. Then both dropped off around the middle. Then at episode 7 they both got lots of confessionals. Then both remained moderately to highly visible until the end. That's just going by confessionals of course. And strangely enough both are highly manipulative older females... Tina 0/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 2/ 2/ 7/ 3/ 2/ 7/ 5/ 5/ 3/ 15 TOTAL: 67 Cirie- 2/ 7/ 5/ 1/ 3/ 0/ 6/ 3/ 2/ 4/ 1/ 4/ 4/ TOTAL= 42 AVERAGE= 3.23
Last Edited By: AnneZob
05/10/08 10:40 AM.
Edited 1 times.
|
||
|
Warrior |
|
||
|
Posts: 2597 (05/10/08 10:49 AM) Registered User |
Episode 13
DABU
Amanda - CP3 Visibility - Solid 3
Cirie - CP4 Visibility - Weak 4
Erik - OTTN5 Visibility - Strong 5
Natalie - MORN3 Visibility - Weak 3
Parvati - MOR2 Visibility - Medium 2
Final (possible) scenario:
"People have come awfully close (to winning) and lost because they went up
against the best. Ya know so it's like, are you really going to make the same mistake again? I mean bring people (that) people don't like to the finals
with you and have a shot. Plan and simple."
In episode 12 Cirie tells us that at a 3-3 tie they pull for the purple rock. She said that if there is a 2-2 tie the tie breaker would be a fire starting competition. In the beginning of episode 13 when they returned to camp Cirie is shown lighting a fire very quickly in the dark. (I forget who posted this earlier… good catch). There is a 2-2 tie at the next TC. Cirie goes head to head in the fire building competition with Amanda. Cirie wins. Parvati wins the final IC and votes off Cirie.
Taking Natalie ( aka The Goat) to the Final 2.
Parvati wins.
Last Edited By: Warrior
05/10/08 3:37 PM.
Edited 1 times.
|
||
|
7neves7 |
|
||
|
Posts: 2607 (05/10/08 10:52 AM) Registered User |
Rewatching the first episode and I just wanted to point out that Parvati and Cirie are the only ones who received introductions on the first episode. Amanda
did not.
|
||
|
AllMenAreIslands |
|
||
|
Posts: 23713 (05/10/08 10:53 AM) Registered user |
All good points, Anne.
Perhaps Cirie wins despite no focus on her family rewards, despite poor opener, poor merge, and higher than everyone else facetime/confessionals. Also despite having no real connection to anyone on the jury. Her connections are with the girls still in the game, and given only one of them will join the jury (as far as we know), it seems very thin to base a winner's pick on. She looks really good to the viewers, a lock to win it, most deserving. Her best comments have been via confessional. I feel that Cirie's edit was to give the best player the best edit, because she does not win the game. MB wants viewers to vote for her to win the America's Choice bonus prize (whatever that might be.) Her story has mostly been played for us. Maybe I'll be wrong on this one and if so, we'll have to tweak some guidelines. Returning players' seasons always cause us to rethink something when it comes to Edgically evaluating them. |
||
|
AllMenAreIslands |
|
||
|
Posts: 23714 (05/10/08 10:55 AM) Registered user |
Oooohhh Warrior!!! I love it!! <3 Thanks for the vidcaps, too!!!!
|
||
|
OnlyTheHunter |
|
||
|
Posts: 1516 (05/10/08 11:02 AM) Edgician |
Here we go this week. Memorable epsiode for sure! Lemun said a few posts back that most of the Tone for this ep was left for the viewers. I agree. And the edit achieved making you feel sorry for someone booted yet make it completely deserved, while letting the culprits of it seem schemy and yet justified. Great job. Amanda - CPM4 - She called herself the most strategic. The audience doesn't buy it, but they see Erik does. We see her told to act up at TC as part of the plan, so there isn't the same type of manipulated N there. But viewers are going to feel that she was mean without getting it, and gloating at the end never looks great. Still, she needed to start the chain moving by getting Erik to turn on Natalie. Wily. I could fathom MOR but I didn't think so. Cirie - CPM4 - Cirie has a way of laughing that comes off as gloating and smirking, much like Todd has. But clearly we saw all sides of her. She was thoughtful about getting Erik to take the bait. She reveled in Natalie being pissed off. She sealed Erik's mind in his decision. My mom still hates her, I respect her but don't love her, CL loves her more. Mission accomplished for Mixed! :-) Erik - OTTM5 - Like I said right after the show, he is to be pitied, not hated. They didn't put PI Fairplay out of his misery. They manipulated a nice guy into feeling like Ian, then sandbagged him. You can't respect his gameplay, and it counts, but he wasn't a villain who wanted to betray everybody, in the edit we saw, he was a guy playing the game who couldn't handle it. Natalie - OTTN3 - Natalie is the one character who is one dimensional here - bitchslap indeed. While the others were objective, she groused and complained, and reveled he most. I wouldn't argue MOR, but she's nothing more than a soundbite here and there. Parvati - UTRN2 - The N is deserved, fans won't like someone not even concerned about the idol, especially considering its consequences. Which is perfect for Parvati when she wins. And her speech to Erk at TC, that is a definition of playing Survivor. Admission time - I was really sensitive to returning players all season. I discounted Danni so thoroughly from Guatemala and I wasn't doing so again. That said, in my honest critique of myself, I look back and spent the season saying "Alexis, Parvati. Parvati, Alexis." If it wasn't for the returning players theme, there's a chance I would have simply revesered those two names. But it would have been the same two, Parvati and Alexis, making sense. Parvati wins. She had a straighforward Edgic edit fromt he git. I could live with Alexis' lack of some things, but I was never blind to Parvati's edit. It works. Define her immediately, then pre-merge use her when circumstances require else law low, then post merge work on making her good and bad to the jury, but always insightful. She's winning. I don't care about how it looks now - it would only be troubling if she looked too good. Last thoughts - warning - non-planned speculation may or may not be Edgic to follow in case I don't get to post before the finale, though I hope to tonight. I see Natalie in the F3, the tag along who doesn't win. Soooo much is made from Amanda about now trusting Cirie and always trusting Parvati. Amanda or Cirie will either take each other out willingly, or Natalie wins the last immunity and Parvati makes a choice. Am I wrong? 50/50 shot. Parvati faces the juy. One of the other two won't, I think. And if they do and I'm totally wrong, it'll be an even better finale for me to watch. But they've yet to give three bigger characters equal shrift in the F3 editing. Much is made of Amanda's invincibility if she faces a jury. She had the same thing against Todd. But that's also the kind of deal Yau-Man and Cirie/Terry got. Someone the viewer thinks is a shoo in. Whether she would be or not, you shouldn't think it right before the finale. I think she's in for a fall. If Cirie wins, I simply failed on her. I still think she's missed in all the spots you should hit, and struck way off where you shouldn't. She has to look like a contender compared to Amanda and Natalie, who will not win. However, I think Parvati and Cirie will face the jury the way Steph and Rafe would have, equally dirty. Save the Alexis vote, that Amanda excused, they have executed everything together. If it comes down to a triple threat, we've seen Parvati socially play with everyone ahead of Cirie. She might have turned alliances out, but we say her social game, smoothing damage control. Cirie might have done the same. It wasn't shown. Parvati has been "running the game" along and equally with Cirie from day one. And it's Parvati's insight at the right times that counts. I think Cirie tried "as long as it isn't me." Unfortunately, in the end, it isn't her. It's Parvati. Have to go. But it will be fun to watch. Enjoy. Michael |
||
|
OnlyTheHunter |
|
||
|
Posts: 1517 (05/10/08 11:09 AM) Edgician |
Hi, Warrior. Nice ratings. One thought and a question.
Thought - Bobby Jon was better at fire than Steph, wasn't he. Didn't work out so good at Tribal Council though. Watch out Cirie. Question - Since when is it a F2? An even number jury? I can't see it. Michael |
||
|
AnneZob |
|
||
|
Posts: 111 (05/10/08 11:12 AM) |
AllMenAreIslands wrote:
Well, a possible reason for the lack of jury connections could be if the focus of the jury is not on her. If the focus of the jury is blasting Parvati to bits for example and giving Cirie basically a free pass why shouldn't the editors focus on Parvati's connections to the jury? The editors know what will happen in the jury and need to explain why jurors ask certain questions. And people have won with bad openings and merges. Also, talking about jury - all of Parvati's connections with the jury have been shown to be negative. It is highly possible in this season having a jury connection may not necessarily be a good thing...As for reward - Cirie still had the benefit of always being on the complex tribe, which Parvati does not (Amanda was also on the complex tribe but her pre-merge edit rules her out). Cirie's edit is not perfect but it is simply the least flawed, as in there have been precedent for past winners to have the same flaws. Regardless in what matters most like consistency I think Cirie does well. Parvati only does well in very narrow guidelines IMHO which don't take much energy from the editors and they could easily use as distractions. Personally if Cirie wins I don't think there need to be any changes to Edgic guidelines. It would be simply that people aren't doing that well applying them. Of course if Parvati wins I'd admit my own faults. I think a large part of the disagreement between people who think Parvati and who think Cirie wins is what part of the Edgic guidelines are most important. For example Parvati supporters hold a lot more in store with the first episode and much less on consistency, complex tribe and confessionals (over all count and in the last couple of episodes). I think that we won't know who is right until after the last episode :) In that respect it would be a useful test to see which part of Edgic is most important for predicting the winner.
Last Edited By: AnneZob
05/10/08 11:21 AM.
Edited 4 times.
|
||
|
TheRealClydeFrog.jjb |
|
||
|
Posts: 59 (05/10/08 11:37 AM) |
Kitty Pryde1 wrote:
Agreed
|
||
|
9RedWing19 |
|
||
|
Posts: 2139 (05/10/08 11:45 AM) Registered User |
Bobby Jon was better at fire than Steph, wasn't he.Yep - classic Survivor ironic editing showing BJ starting the fire quickly after he and Steph returned from losing the last IC, and Steph commenting on how good BJ was at making fire. |
||
|
astroline |
|
||
|
Posts: 1146 (05/10/08 11:55 AM) Registered user |
Final ratings for astro...
Dabu Amanda - CPM4 Cirie - CPM4 Erik - OTTM5 Natalie - MORN3 Parvati - UTRM2 Winners... 1. Parvati (been my season-long pick as my #1 choice for every single episode except Episode 2, so I can't change now. Unfortunately, this last episode reminded me a lot of Cook Islands Parvati, complete with the UTRM2 rating I gave her. She was there I guess, but she didn't really matter. Her lack of confessionals doesn't bother me that much, since Parvati is historically a low confessional character anyway, so if there's going to be a winner with a low confessional count, Parvati would be the perfect choice. A low confessional count obviously doesn't make you UTR, since she isn't, but I guess it is something to consider. Even with that, she has plenty of jury ties, a lot of doubt, and all the right soundbytes/editing in all the necessary moments needed. However, if she does win, how exactly does she do it? We still don't really know that yet.) 2. Cirie (a good #2 pick still, but nothing to put her all the way as #1. AMAI could have a point that although Cirie doesn't win, her good edit is just a tribute to her as a player and her popularity with the viewers. Her first episode was weak, her merge episode was weak, the overall lack of focus during key moments such as the family reward and no long-term story definitely hurt her chances. Maybe Cirie is just destined to re-live the same fate twice?) 3. Amanda (still keeping her as my #3, because it'd be an Edgic loss but a fan victory. Her only major downfalls are the opening episode UTR1 and the INV she got in Episode 4, other than that her edit hasn't actually been that bad. If she does win, we would know exactly how and why. But at this point, her edit is starting to remind me a lot of how she was at the end of China. I don't see how she could lose again in front of the jury, unless she bombs it again, so if she makes it to the end I'd have to say she wins. And that's why she's still here.) This whole setup reminds me a lot of China. Three completely different edits, all with chances to win somehow. And Amanda's been in both of them.
|
||
|
getting real |
|
||
|
Posts: 1199 (05/10/08 12:19 PM) Registered User |
Sidenote:
What would Survivor have been like today if the next words we heard after Shane's "one of you is going and I don't care which one" were "Melinda, you can stay three more days". ??? ***** OK, this is what we can say with certainty about the finale: Parvati faces the jury. That's about it. The rest is speculation. Let's see... A Parv/Cirie/Amanda final 3 is unlikely for many reasons, not the least of which being that final combinations are never revealed that early and so brazenly. Even the Aitu 4 didn't happen until close to the merge. OTH also had some compelling reasons for including Natalie. So she's in as well. Who out of Cirie and Amanda misses out? It's tempting to read Jonathan's prophecy as Cirie beating Parvati in front of the jury to win it all. However, to me, Cirie's edit is lacking in key areas while Amanda's has been brimming with references about her invincibility in front of the jury. I'd say Amanda makes it also. Now comes the fun part, the part where we depart from conventional wisdom. A bit of speculative extrapolation: Amanda has Ozzy's and James' votes as locks. Natalie has Alexis'. Parv gets Jason's and Erik's as acknowledgment of her superior game play. Then, just to titillate CL, Eliza snakes Parvati and hands Natalie her vote. Hell, if Eliza can't win, sure as hell no other favorite deserves to win either. Especially members of the showmancing 4clique. And then, having been shafted at F4, Cirie delivers the coup de grace: "Parv", she says, "you signed your death warrant when you messed with me." She doesn't say, "Jonathan verily was one of the prophets" (probably because she didn't hear him deliver the prophecy) but she may as well have. The favorites, arrogant to the end, have been punished. They've been so concerned about preening to each other, they've let a fan (whose only attribute early was her invisibilty) slide through the cracks and do what no-one thought possible. Even in this unique edition of returning half-asses. Enjoy! |
||
 Kitty Pryde1 |
|
||
|
Posts: 3996 (05/10/08 12:44 PM) |
Personally, I think Amanda and Natalie really ARE the biggest jury threats. Everyone likes Amanda on the jury because she hasn't done a whole lot of
backstabbing. Natalie has three fans on the jury who will probably vote for her just to have a fan win. The doubt is that Cirie or Parvati can win. And
about all these jury connections, Parvati has a ton, but most of them involve people being pissed off at her.
|
||
|
scepticA |
|
||
|
Posts: 1362 (05/10/08 1:19 PM) Registered User |
Parv - Cirie - Cirie - Parv. Fun times.
To me, and to many others, it's a given that Parv is facing the jury. In fact, the biggest SHOCK I'd have tomorrow (other than Bitchslap Babe winning) is Parv going out at F4. Nobody is anticipating that. So much of the arguments re edgic are just boiling down to the significance of each aspect of edgic and which is more significant to a winner's edit. But the other thing that's creeping into the discussions is jury reaction. Kitty Pride mentioned part of it, to wit: The doubt is that Cirie or Parvati can win. And about all these jury connections, Parvati has a ton, but most of them involve people being pissed off at her.To me this is a key to her relationship with jury members. Okay, many are pissed at her. But do they respect her game play? Are they going to be like the Raro 4, despising the little girl Neleh who deprived them of their rightful place in Survivor glory (still to me the most shameful jury ever), or are they going to suck it up and give the vote to Parv because she played a good game? I've written a lot recently about the game logic pointing at Cirie, even while acknowledging that it's not edgic. When I do the same thing with jury logic I can't help but think that these people, who have been a part - for good or ill - in some of the finest backstabs and blindsides in Survivor history won't end up voting for the person that they respect who played the game. I can totally see Eliza voting for Parv because of this. To me this isn't edgic, but it's based on the editing arc of the season. How many times have we seen the jury gasp at the brilliant play/overwhelming stupidity of people still playing the game? I bet they've LOVED TCs - not a Pagong to be found. They're enjoying them because the game is so completely OTT strategic/backstabbing. So they're suddenly going to hate the people responsible for all this fun? So for those who think that they'll hold a grudge, ok. They might. But I don't think the way this season has been edited will end up being a "why Parv lost" edit. If Cirie wins, it will be because the final jury will make it clear to us that they thought she played a better game. Fine. I can live with that, and so can edgic. But don't think that the Parv edit is leading up to a "why Parv lost" sort of ending. If/when Parv wins the editors will make sure we know it was because she deserved to win due to game play. To think otherwise, and to base your "Parv loses" argument on a vindictive jury, is contrary to the whole arc of the season. In this respect it has been a wonderful season. |
||
|
Francois40 |
|
||
|
Posts: 2206 (05/10/08 1:22 PM) Registered user |
Jeff Probst said it at the RC, this was the last TC it could be used. So clearly, not looking for it didn't hurt [Parv] any.I wouldn't say "clearly", because she could always have given it to someone else for insurance. I also maintain that she probably DID look for it, if only out of boredom, but The Erik Show took over the footage. None of that is Edgic, though--the Edgic involved was that Parv lazily and smugly forewent a chance to look for the Idol, in this game where Immunity tokens have had a HUGE role and in fact seated the entire (noninjured) jury. and [Parv] is not close with Erik (only met at merge) so doesn't have the leverage to manipulate him. It's been 15 days since the merge, which is a long time when you're living in those conditions. Throw in that manipulating men (especially Fanbois) is precisely what Parvati does BEST. Nothing throws Edgic out of the window. It's a learning experience. If we get tripped up, we write another guidelineI wish that were the case, but I don't recall any of the guidelines actually being rewritten since I landed her after S12. We are overdue--the guidelines still mention "Final 2" and "the "known pair" example, which by very virtue of its hving failed fantastically means it should be eliminated, rather than merely footnoted (think how many other "rules" you could write if you added "except in the case of _____"!). We've got 4 months before the next season, a perfect time to revamp this baby. PS. Just a thought- perhaps the fact that there's no 'perfect' winner's edit indicates that we may have a tie that will be resolved at the live reunionI cannot fathom that they would allow someone to vote after seeing the (heavily edited) show, which would probably be considered fraud. Yeah, they do it for fans to vote for Rupert or James to win money (which is still based on a VERY biased edit), but the core of the game could not be messed with so much. If there is a tie, they'll have some way for them to break it "on the island". Cirie is shown lighting a fire very quickly in the darkYes, big kudos to the first to point that out; for both literal and figurative meaning, it's a whopper with significance. This would mean a F2 with an even-numbered jury; I just can't see it. |
||
|
AllMenAreIslands |
|
||
|
Posts: 23716 (05/10/08 1:39 PM) Registered user |
Maybe James is DQd from the jury for speaking out loud. Jurors are not allowed to talk until it's the final TC. Either that, or one of the injured takes a
turn for the worse and has to go to hospital.
Edgic guidelines could stand a tweak or two, it's true. They have often been tweaked following unforeseen results, but I'm not sure about the last
few seasons. Good point about the F2 still being mentioned, Francois, since it's been F3 for a few seasons now.
|
||
