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Another blindside as I expected from this season. A true Survivor first after 15 seasons of greatness. Overall, the episode was rather average to me, but I definitely didn't predict Erik would win immunity and then give it away, until it became an "issue" during the show. Once that happened, I knew it was over. Just imagine the flak Erik is getting. He must feel horrible since it's such an expensive mistake! I felt bad for him, but after he took Amanda on the reward, I can't say I was completely surprised. I liked his wide-eyed naivety, and I definitely did not expect that from the Fans this season. Sometimes, people call people naive, and it's more of an impression rather than them actually being naive. But Erik WAS. Now I totally can see why everyone post-game has been adamant that a Favorite is winning this. So all this combined with the editing pretty much ensures that Natalie won't be winning in my mind. It can happen, but I give it really low odds. I think Erik was a cool character because he was sort of pure-hearted and positive which you don't see to much nowadays, but I am more than satisfied with this all female F4. The girls made Survivor history

I was very impressed with Natalie's insider clip videos at the CBS website. She is a strong, smart, independent woman who has a very provocative perspective. She seemed to feel that the women had thrown away their chances at an all-female alliance or all-female victory after Alexis and her got blindsided. She clearly was trying her best to keep it together, and her relatively controlled demeanor under what I assume to be extremely trying circumstances seem to indicate that she's been someone who's overcome adversity before. So I imagine her delight that the women did come together and truly helped her save her own ass this last round. She got what she wanted: a true female alliance who's established themselves in Survivor lore and also gets to be the last Fan standing to boot (or should we say--"not to boot" lol). Speaking of female alliances, this is by far, Survivor's most successful one and smartest female alliance ever. Up until now, the closest we have had was the Amazon and Vanuatu women, but part of that is just the way the tribes were aligned at the beginning. Given the drought of female victories post-Amber given the highly capable male competition, this is certainly a refreshing change. I would also like to highlight the fact that the women who made Survivor history come from the post-ASS seasons, which have been lauded by self-appointed Survivor experts here as lacking strong, capable women competitors

Surprised that not 1 person got all the answers right to the extremely easy trivia challenge. I think people were throwing that. Particularly the well positioned ones. I'm pretty sure Parvati was throwing the IC if not the RC. She knows she's golden to F3 and it actually helps her to lose Amanda at this point. Clearly, she was not particularly interested in getting the HII. If she does, then she has an obligation to use it on someone in danger like Amanda or Natalie, and then if she doesn't, that would just piss them off. But seriously, the "Fans" not getting them ALL right?! Considering, I'm a very new fan, and those were all a breeze I was . I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they're malnourished and probably not all there mentally at this point. It was cool seeing like Cirie and Amanda do well. I forget that they were once the "fans" of Survivor too prior to being on the show. Kind of brings it all full circle

Positioning wise, our F3 is most likely:
(1) Amanda/Cirie/Parvati (original Malakal F3 alliance)
(2) Cirie/Natalie/Parvati (given that Amanda is likely the #1 jury threat)

Amanda and Natalie will really have to battle for immunity, and if I were Cirie and Parvati, I'd be attempting to get immunity to ensure that Amanda does not get it. This is the time to get her out. Amanda has 2 for sure votes on the jury. The other girls basically have none, except Natalie who likely has Alexis at the least. Given that this is a F3, 2/7 locked votes is HUGE. The only other thing that would make Natalie a greater threat than Amanda is her bond to the other Fans. Not sure how big of a deal that is at this point, but that's certainly an underdog or social dynamic that the Favorites should be considering. The last thing they want is for Natalie to become the Danni of Micronesia with Parvati/Cirie being the next Stephenies (comeback players who backstabbed too many people). Since Natalie doesn't seem to have played the social game with the guys the way Danni did and backstabbed plenty herself though, I don't know if she's truly more threatening than the 2 locked votes Amanda has at this point





Cirie/Parvati have long established themselves in a great outlasting position. They've secured some of the best types of strategic outlasting personas out there. To list them:

(1) True Goat (Outcasts, Clay, Katie, Twila, Dreamz)
(2) Perceived Goat #1 = Known Backstabber w/ Known True Enemies
(3) Perceived Goat #2 = Non-Threatening (i.e. Sandra, Tina, Lill, Fairplay, Cassandra)
(4) Overt Game Controller + Puppets = For this to work, you need followers or competitors who don't realize they need to take you out (Heidik w/ Jan being his #1 puppet)
(5) Shield = Someone people perceive to be someone they can use as effectively as a shield, even if they know they're a threat but miscalculate when to throw them away (Jenna Morasca, Danni, etc.)

Many times, Sucksters mistakenly assume that a lot of players fall under category #4. However, it's actually rare that there is a mastermind puppet master simply stringing along puppets. In most cases, the players are aware that the eventual outlaster is a threat, but simply miscalculate when to get rid of them or simply can't rationally, because there are truly bigger threats around and it's actually truly in their best interests to keep them around.

In this case, Cirie is #3, and Parvati is #2. Neither are goats, but of this merge group, the fact that they backstabbed early and have likely enemies on the jury increased their outlasting capabilities tenfold. This is a good strategic way to play the game, as your competitors leave you alone, because it truly is in their self-interest to keep you around, and you can start focusing on strategizing on securing the jury votes. It's the ambiguous goat, yet non-goat role that Hatch, Tina, Amber, Todd, and others have secured for themselves going into that final TC where people think they've pissed too many people off or won't be seen as deserving, and yet--as we saw, they did get the votes to win

The backstab early deal has several advantages:
(1) No matter what, people are going to likely have to backstab at some point anyways. So, in this case, sometimes it's better to get your dirty work out of the way early, and the look more loyal and true to your "real allies" later like Tina and Yul
(2) The earlier you backstab, the longer the backstabbed can think and mull over things and get over their bitterness and anger at being turned on. Sometimes, the time is irrelevant. The person will not be over the backstab until they get their revenge (Big Tom) and sometimes never (Lex). Other times, the passage of time can truly heal wounds and leaves more room for the individual to think about things, and gain perspective on the issue, leaving room for a final TC speech that can sway that person to vote for you anyways. I'm sure Ozzy had to feel slightly better about being made a fool, after the way Jason, Alexis, and Erik left. Same for Jason. Same for Alexis. Obviously, James felt better about his China reputation lol
(3) If you get the backstabbing and the subsequent loss of game integrity problems out of the way early, then it's not as shocking when you do it later and it becomes to be more expected. If you backstab a lot, then suddenly, each of the knives you planted in the back of your victims becomes less personal. They see you do it to everyone, and they become more numb to the process. They see you are here to play a game, and then you might be somewhat forgiven or understood. I thought Todd did this extremely well and articulated so in his jury speech





At this point, objectively, Parvati is outwitting the best, because she's been in control of every single boot she was a part of, while also having the most overt control. She has a leg up on Amanda, Cirie, and Natalie by blindsiding them at different boots. However, the penultimate jury vote is subjective, so in the end, it means jack unless used as a selling point (which may or may not be appreciated by the jurors). Cirie would be closest to Parvati in terms of jury positioning, because she could alway argue that she manipulated Parvati to choose her over the Ozzy/James alliance and try to make it personal. So those 2 should be close to jury perception. They've voted the same way every time except Alexis's boot, they're Favorites, and they've both had the relative goat positions of their tribe up until now. Everyone in the F4 has established themselves as credible strategists at this point. I don't believe any of the jurors believe any of these women were completely dragged around or are do-nothings. So, it's really going to come down to who votes for reasons of bitterness and who votes due to social bonds:

* Cirie will steal Parvati's votes if the jury is more upset by having a bond betrayed and want vengeance or to make a statement about loyalty. This would be like Lex sticking it to Rob, Leann giving her vote to Chris, Bula Bula being disgusted with Dreamz, etc. However, Cirie is a good social player in her own right, so it's hard to tell if she has a bond with anybody based on the editing

* Parvati will steal Cirie votes if she can capitalize on recapturing the bonds she once had with those she backstabbed. Sometimes, it's easy to rekindle a pre-existing bond even if it's been tarnished versus securing a hatred vote where there was no real strong bond before. This would be a failure Cassandra had, whereas Boston Rob still managed to get Kathy's vote. Chris did especially well in this area, by reminding his jury voters of the special relationships they all had with him

- Of particular interest to me is how Ozzy is going to vote. I'm generalizing, but from my experience, Hispanics value loyalty, and we saw that Ozzy was pretty dang loyal to certain people in Cook Islands. At the same time, he's a veteran who knows this is a game, and seems to be doing alright over at Ponderosa despite his "little sister" brutally ending his 2nd chance at the $500,000. So how is he going to vote? Out of principle to demonstrate that turning on him was a big mistake, Parvati will lose his vote, and he'll give it to Cirie or Natalie. And if Amanda is in the finals, it's not even a question who he's voting for. However, if Amanda is not in the finals, I imagine Parvati would have backstabbed her (although it's possible she'd fight for her and Amanda would lose a tie-breaker). In that case, Ozzy would be extra livid at Parvati. If she tries to save Amanda, then his anger might be somewhat mitigated, although I can't imagine his need for catharsis would be completely vanquished

All the jurors seem relatively at peace with their boots over at Ponderosa, but who freaking knows. The F3 only confuses this process, since you have a huge backstabber (Parvati), middle backstabber (Cirie, Natalie), and a lesser backstabber who has some moral leverage (Amanda). I don't know how the jury speeches and F4 boot will affect things but at this point. If editing is based on edgic rules then Parvati is our obvious winner with Natalie being the Becky of Micronesia. Parvati's edit is like Tom, Yul's, and a bit of Todd's, but what makes things trick is that she's a woman lol. If editing is not following edgic, than it could be anyone. If Cirie/Natalie/Amanda win, then edgic would need revision in that there should be separate rules for male victors and female victors. It's wouldn't be "wrong" necessarily, but it'd be totally evident after 16 seasons that males and females get separate editing treatment with glaring exceptions like Tina, Jenna, Vecepia, Amber, and Danni. On paper, Amanda has the best chance at winning if she makes the finals. If she doesn't, ooooh, it gets tricky. Not doing a deep analysis of it, but my instinctual predictions are:



Amanda/Cirie/Parvati F3
Eliza = Cirie < Amanda < Parvati
Ozzy = Amanda
Jason = Cirie < Amanda < Parvati
James = Amanda
Alexis = Amanda < Parvati < Cirie
Erik = Parvati < Cirie < Amanda
Natalie = Amanda < Cirie < Parvati

(1) With Eliza, Cirie backstabbed her original alliance. So unless Eliza is especially impressed with her infiltration abilities and rewards her for making a *right* decision to vote Yau-Man out and end her $500,000 game, I don't know if she'll be getting Eliza's vote. Parvati has been Eliza's arch-nemesis...SINCE THE BEGINNING! Tough call on whether she'd favor Amanda or Parvati more. Amanda clearly impressed and pleased Eliza at the HII boot of Alexis. As an early juror who is annoyed at all the players (except maybe Jason), she's more likely to be pleased the more people get backstabbed and pay for their decisions. However, given that Amanda sort of willingly chose to enter into the opposite alliance at the start, and didn't share a double tribe bond or interacted as much with her as Parvati in terms of the TV edit, I don't know if she'd favor her. On some level, she's got to be impressed with her inability to oust Parvati from the start with some hardcore targeting, and failing due to Parvati's social game securing James and Amanda out of thin air and stealing Cirie from them. She's said in post-game interviews that she did respect Parvati for being up-front with her at her boot, and she was clearly surprised and I imagine impressed that Parvati has a brain and turned on the men, thinking that she'd be their goat

(2) Jason is 1 of many crapshoots. Who knows how he's voting? But I'd say Parvati has the edge, simply because she was the most key factor in the Ozzy vote off, and allowed him to outlast his hero. Plus, they might share a weak Airai bond. He was happy with Amanda's HII boot of Alexis though (I imagine a kind of, "You should've listened to me Natalie" reaction) and may reward her with his vote for proving him *right* as well as providing him with entertaining gameplay. Cirie along with Parvati helped save him at Ozzy boot, so if he's a bitter juror, then Cirie would get his vote more than Parvati, given that he wouldn't expect particular loyalty from a non-tribemate

(3) Alexis seems pretty annoyed at Amanda at the jury house, so I expect her to be like James. For the most part, understanding that this is a game, not taking things to personally, and being positive about the experience. But still being a nice but vengeful juror sticking it to the people who broke their word or bond the most. The more bitter she is, the more Cirie gets her vote, given that Parvati broke her F3 alliance with her. However, Parvati may get her vote, if she doesn't see Parvati voting with Amanda as too big of a betrayal (or values the loyalty), and if she remembers their Airai bond and then appreciates Parvati throwing away her alliance with the men Favorites to side with her and Natalie temporarily. Editing wise, we had moments like the pot stirring which suggests Alexis might have a good bond with Parvati. But there were also included clips where she felt threatened by Parvati about asking if she wants to go home due to her leg. I think Cirie might have the edge, given her non-participation in the Alexis blindside

(4) If Erik votes bitter, then Parvati has the least obligation to him, given that he had Malakal bonds with Cirie and Amanda. He's been so positive though, that I could very well see him being extremely forgiving and rewarding those who backstabbed him more just because he's bonded with them most. So in that case, I see Amanda getting his vote. Amanda has a clear bond with him over Cirie back on Malakal as he's said in the insider clips. Additionally, he DID try to vote her out first, so she gets moral leverage points there, whereas Cirie is clearly floating

(5) Depending on how the boot goes down, I'd imagine Natalie might be closest to Parvati of the girls. Parvati protected her somewhat at the Alexis boot, helped out at the Erik boot, proved herself somewhat in the Ozzy boot, and the girl power alliance basically started with these 2 girls. It was also a moment that was highlighted in the edit, so a Natalie vote for Parvati would be explained as well. Even though Parvati betrayed Natalie and the F3 deal at the Alexis boot, I can still see her closest to Parvati. Cirie did help out significantly in the last Erik boot though, so if anyone else steals Natalie's vote, it'd be Cirie. Also, Cirie was not a part of the Alexis blindside. I heard here that Natalie and Parvati are still talking on MySpace or something post-game, so I'd say that indicates they are close for sure



I'm not even going to speculate on a Cirie/Natalie/Parvati F3. It would seriously depend on how Amanda gets booted that would decide lots of votes. If Parvati tries to save her in a tie (maybe kind of like the Sundra/Becky situation in CI?) and Cirie wants to get rid of her as a huge jury threat, then I can see Amanda campaigning hardcore for her to win, and then Ozzy/James might rethink their votes. Otherwise, I'd imagine Parvati will have pissed off Ozzy/James for good, and Amanda would have no obligation to vote for her. At this point, as big of a jury threat as Amanda is, I actually think it might be Parvati's best interest to be loyal to her at this point and hope she loses a F4 tie-breaker, and hope she can bank on the female alliances votes in case Amanda sneaks into the finals. Tough tough call. I'm really interested in how this all plays out! I haven't heard reports of Amanda/Parvati being close or seeing BFF pics of them around, so I don't know if this is gonna be happy ending for those 2, especially if Natalie and Parvati are the ones talking to each other on MySpace

What can I say? This season excites me and is thought-provoking