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"Hey ladies, I'm sorry but understand, with these questions, I'm not trying to be a jerk but I really am looking for something deeper than I'm just giving you a million bucks because I like you."

So Alexis has confirmed that Erik does not make the final. Not that I thought he would in any circumstances other than an immunity run, but stranger things have happened.

Assuming that Erik probably leaves in fifth place, or best case scenario, fourth, let's look at the four ladies that are left in the picture.

Amanda would presumably beat anyone that she faced. She has Ozzy, she has James, she may well have Erik (who would vote for Amanda because his mancrush Ozzy would want him to.) Jason has no reason to be mad at her specifically. Cirie likes her, should she be on the jury. Now, the thing that only James knows is that Amanda is unimpressive in her jury speech (hell, he voted for Courtney!) To be fair, given that Amanda has no blood on her hands, that might not matter all that much, except... Cirie's a smooth talker and very persuasive. So's Parvati. I think that the game is Amanda's to lose; that being said, I also believe that Amanda would probably have to win the final IC to make the final unless Parvati is feeling atypically altruistic or Amanda has some Svengali hold that would make everyone cheerfully want to take her to the end and lose (which, to be fair, Ethan, Tom, Brian, and Tina all had.)

Cirie... now, what Cirie needs? Cirie needs Amanda to not make the final. She needs Parv and Nat as her opponents. If she gets to face those two, she could win this. If she has to face Amanda, she would probably not win. The thing is that Cirie is not as well liked as Amanda or Erik, but not as hated as Parvati, and I can see no reason whatsoever that anyone other than Alexis would vote for Natalie unless it's Ozzy voting for her to give Cirie and/or Parv the finger for not letting him win. I think Cirie can talk her way into the money, I really do, but by voting out Ozzy, she did make Amanda very sympathetic to the jury.

Natalie needs to point out that she's an easy beat in the finals. None of the favorites would have any reason to vote for her, and neither does Jason whom she set up. She's playing for Alexis's vote only at this point. She needs to convince Cirie to get rid of Amanda.

Parvati... the question is, how much does she want this? It's a catch-22: she can stay loyal to her BFF Amanda and get her ass kicked, or she can throw Amanda to the wolves, and have the jury use that as evidence that she's a deceitful, traitorous bitch, or the third option would be to hope that Cirie and/or Natalie dispose of Amanda for her. I kind of sense that Parvati has burned too many bridges behind her... although she might get more votes than Natalie, she couldn't beat Amanda, and I doubt she could beat Cirie.

Now, the final three that was hinted in ep. 3 was Parvati, Cirie, and Amanda. Now, the question is this: are Parvati and Cirie, the two strongest strategic players, just going to roll over, pull a Colby, and let Amanda go to the final and kick their butts, or are one or both of them going to kick her to the curb and take Natalie to the end so that they have an actual chance at winning this? I think the latter, honestly. I refuse to believe Cirie would be that complacent.