I guess I hinted at it before, but I still feel Todd wins. He's got all the doubt. Surely, nice Amanda will get all the votes over mean Todd. Why make it so obvious how the season ends? Because it won't be that simple.
I think it is clear that either Denise or Courtney will leave at F4 because this last episode strongly suggests Todd and Amanda face off before the jury. It doesn't even really matter which leaves at F4 because I don't think either is truly a contender except as a "protest alternative" and the three way vote makes it awfully difficult to win that way. Courtney is indifferent to the culture and virtually indifferent to the game. Denise is the puppet, and even James, the player who praised her work ethic, considered her irrelevant to the game.
So look at the votes -
Jaime - She has no connection to Amanda, and her only scene with Todd showed her confiding to him about the idols. Based upon that, she votes either for or against Todd. It wouldn't surprise me to see her vote for him.
Jean Robert - Supposedly, we know he's voting for Amanda based upon his threat, but will he follow through? He's a poker player, and that may well have been a bluff. Plus, we know how the producers love voting irony. It wouldn't surprise me to see him vote for Todd.
Frosti - He thought he was good with both Todd and Amanda until he suddenly found he wasn't. This could well be a protest vote for Courtney (in particular) or Denise. Amanda may have a slight edge because she didn't eat the cheeseburgers, but again, it would not overly surprise me to see him vote for Todd.
James - If Todd has a guaranteed vote, it is James. He certainly won't be a protest vote, and from what we saw, he was closer to Todd than Amanda.
Erik - OK, Amanda gets this vote unless he's upset she didn't keep him around after getting his hopes up.
Peih Gee - Sure, she bonded with Amanda this last episode, but it ended in disappointment once again. At this point, I'd expect her to vote for Amanda, but it would only be a mild surprise if she voted for Todd as the best player. After all, Amanda only has herself to blame for being stuck with Todd still around.
Courtney/Denise - This vote depends greatly on how they exit the game, but as of right now, I'd give Todd the edge for either. He seems to be the hub of everything, and Amanda only seems connected to him.













