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SurvivorSurvey |
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I'm not saying that I don't care about accuracy I'm just saying in that instant it would not affect the ratings for the vote or the overall
ranking. Please if you find some more like that please bring them to my attention. None of this is set in stone.
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SurvivorSurvey |
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Exactly Kirblar that's a good metaphor to use for it. That is why Chris and Sandra are much higher in his list then mine. They made mistakes that should
have been game-ending which is why they don't belong anywere near the top of any winners rankings.
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RavuRules |
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You are right Ravu that ranking systems do focus on differnt things. I think the main difference between our systems is that I look at what happened in the winners game and take it one step at a time. I feel in some of your analysis that you argue they ended up winning so it was the right move. I don't believe in that at all. Why? I think your logic operates under and implicit assumption of what the "right" or optimal move is (like GT) and you count that anything short of that as a "mistake"--correct? However, given that Survivor is an ever shifting game dependent on various luck factors including twists, those kind of assumptions can be damaging and hence, we shouldn't knock winners for making their correct moves in that particular context even if it was lucky. You don't have to give them extra credit, but it doesn't make sense to call their move a "mistake" if it won them the game or advanced their position While my system does not focus on luck as nearly as much as your's does it does analyse how players you were given luck or an oppurtunity played it out. Except for analysing Amber's game I don't look at how the other winners performed in All Stars. Okay. I think that is indeed where we disagree. Thanks for addressing that evaluation difference
I find that illogical. We were able to gleam the extent and limits of their abilities from watching their gameplay in that season regardless of a victory or a loss. In terms of not having a chance to win, that is not what led to Tina and Hatch's lower ranking at all. In fact, against popular misconception Ethan's ranking was raised by All-Stars since he proved that he could do decently without riding the coattails of a male alliance
You could say the same about Tina though It's why his "analysis" isn't that at all. A poker player in a heads up match who calls an all-in bet on the first hand with 2/7 off is not a good player and did not make a good move. They made a bad move and got rewarded for it because they lucked out.Exactly Kirblar that's a good metaphor to use for it. Absolutely not. That is a horrible metaphor. I already explained why it was wrong in my thread, and he never responded to it, because he knows he's wrong. As I said before, in your analogy, the poker player who wins with the 2/7 made a "bad move" in terms of rational statistical calculations, but because he did manage his luck, you can't say he made the "wrong move". If it really was "bad" then I'll take a billion such "bad moves" that lead to victories any day over "good moves" which fail due to bad luck. "It's better lucky than good". No one is saying that poker player is a better player or smarter player than the others who lost that round, but you can't say he made a "bad move" in that particular instance Who defines what a "bad move" is? Doesn't results show us when a person made a good move or bad move based on victory? You guys are basing your ideas of what constitutes "good move" and "mistake" on a similar type of criteria. You have constructed a set of informal Survivor laws and set of movements that tend to result in better odds based on the results of the early Survivor seasons. Where my issue with the system is that it has largely become invalidated by the results which demonstrate that the Survivor winners are definitely produced by certain luck factors (though you may not like that fact) and also optimal moves that aren't appreciated or recognized by GT enthusiasts For example, let's take Sandra. You might say she is a bad winner, because she didn't take overt control and had to rely on Lill to bring her to F2. However, if she didn't make that "mistake" and did try to take overt control in that situation, I think it's fair to assume and speculate that she probably wouldn't have won. If she loses by doing that "optimal move" as proposed by GT, we're supposed to commend her for losing? We're supposed to knock her for making a move that led to her victory and call that "bad" because in other cases that aren't Pearl Islands, those would be the right move? That's completely illogical. Results or scientific facts (i.e. a victory instead of a loss) should be our compass, not this religious faith-based idea of what constitutes good gameplay on Survivor. You can't evaluate Sandra and Chris's performance based on Outback or Africa optimal strategy. You have to evaluate them based on Pearl Islands and Vanuatu strategy, and in those seasons, what they did was near-optimal, hence their victories. Also, it doesn't make sense to lower Chris or Sandra's ranking, because they got lucky because ALL the winners were lucky. And Sandra and Chris were hardly the luckiest ones That is why Chris and Sandra are much higher in his list then mine. They made mistakes that should have been game-ending which is why they don't belong anywere near the top of any winners rankings. What were their "mistakes"? I can point to every winner who made potentially "game ending" mistakes including Tina who left the door open for a Kucha/Amber comeback after ousting Jerri before all the Kucha were marginalized. To apply Kirblar's criticism and POV, one could say Tina "lucked out" just like Sandra and Chris, and relied on the luck of having competitors not being as intense or cutthroat as the other seasons. She had no real competition to go against. No Fairplays, Rob Mariano, Dreamz--heck even Katie or Sundra's to go up against. If you're factoring in competitive level as you say you are, your ranking doesn't make sense to me, and I'd like you to explain how you incorporated this in your evaluation so I can see what you see |
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Kirblar |
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but because he did manage his luck, you can't say he made the "wrong move". If it really was "bad" then I'll take a billion such "bad moves" that lead to victories any day over "good moves" which fail due to bad luck. "It's better lucky than good". No one is saying that poker player is a better player or smarter player than the others who lost that round, but you can't say he made a "bad move" in that particular instanceOMG. Yes, because we're all the Scarlet Witch and have the ability to manipulate probability and have the ability to "manage luck". You understand nothing. |
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RavuRules |
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OMG. I don't know if the guy in your example went all in because he was: (1) a total idiot; which I guess would be what you meant (2) taking a calculated risk, because he's sized up all the opponents at his table and felt it was the optimal play given those conditions despite the bad hand looking at things from a raw numbers POV (3) bluffing Apparently, even if he's the idiot, he's the idiot who won that hand, so he didn't make the "wrong" move. The optimal move for that particular scenario in retrospect is clearly what he did, assuming someone called him. Then, he won the maximum amount of money for that particular hand. You can't say that was a "bad move". You could say, "Normally, that'd be a bad move". You could say, "I regularly would not advise you do what this guy did". But you can't say, "You made a bad move winning that hand and eliminating the other player(s) while taking all his chips". To use your own words: "You understand nothing" Do we say the guy got lucky? Absolutely and obviously. So I'm not going, OMG, this guy made the winning move, I'm ranking him higher than other people who made less risky winning moves. I'm just not going, "I'm going to rank him low because he made a move that is usually a mistake in other contexts, and I feel like applying Outback standards on Vanuatu, because I have this idea that all the seasons are the same and there is 1 best way to play the game, even though the data clearly shows there are multiple way and methods of doing well in Survivor". So until you grasp this idea of inherent format luck and throw your simplistic10-year old ideas of what constitutes real and fair Survivor with supposedly equal opportunities STFU |
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Kirblar |
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so he didn't make the "wrong" move. The optimal move for that particular scenario in retrospect is clearly what he did, assuming someone called him. Then, he won the maximum amount of money for that particular hand. You can't say that was a "bad move". You could say, "Normally, that'd be a bad move". You could say, "I regularly would not advise you do what this guy did". But you can't say, "You made a bad move winning that hand and eliminating the other player(s) while taking all his chips". To use your own words:ROFL. You are such a fucking joke. It's the wrong move, a bad move, and terrible play. It's a heads up match, the first hand and they have equal chips. Just because he won does not justify the move. That's why I don't try and debate you, it's like debating a hardcore scientologist on whether Xenu exists. I simply point out that you're a moron with faulty logic and reasoning because there's no point in getting into a debate with someone who doesn't understand basic game principles like "Bad move with accidental good outcome still = bad move." |
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RavuRules |
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It's the wrong move, a bad move, and terrible play. It's a heads up match, the first hand and they have equal chips. Just because he won does not justify the move. That's why I don't try and debate you, it's like debating a hardcore scientologist on whether Xenu exists. I simply point out that you're a moron with faulty logic and reasoning because there's no point in getting into a debate with someone who doesn't understand basic game principles like "Bad move with accidental good outcome still = bad move." Too bad you don't argue with sound logic, because you're using a self-fulfilling or redundant logical sentence: Bad move + Accidental good outcome = Bad move You've already defined the move as bad from the start, so lo and behold 1 + 0 = 1 You're the fucking douche for not explaining how it's a "bad move". What constitutes a bad move? Results dumbass. Losing. Winning = good and losing = bad. I shouldn't have to explain this What I'm saying is: Bad move based on statistics + Good outcome based on luck = Good move based on luck and results/bad move based on statistics So yes, we can say it's a "bad move" in the sense of not advising people to make that same type of move in any and all circumstances, but no we wouldn't say it's a bad move in that we'd advise that person to do that same move in the exact same circumstance they were in with the same good luck, because obviously, it ended up with a good result. In other words, it is BOTH a good move and a bad move at the same time (I know, that must boggle your little black-and-white ideas of how the world works), depending on what particular perspective you want to adopt. From a results perspective (which DEFINES what a winner is), then it makes sense to call those winning moves "good". Yeah, you can say the move was bad based on what normally you might do or based on whether Vanuatu or Pearl Islands were more like Outback or Africa. But that's a stupid analogy and the statistical cut and paste method which you so criticize. Why should we be evaluating Sandra and Chris based on the optimal strategy for previous seasons and making less relevant generalizations of what usually constitutes good gameplay when we should be evaluating them based on their specific context and what would best lead to a victory on their season based on that format and luck factors? Unlike poker, there is no specific set of rules that help define good statistical strategy. Survivor seasons are all different, so there are less constants and more variables and luck, which is why I criticize GT, which largely operates under the implict assumption that each season of Survivor and each winner has played under the same exact conditions and non-social situations. I mean, if you have the Bible on what makes a "good move" or "bad move" in Survivor, by all means share. Until then, you're just talking smack and not contributing at all to any worthwhile discussion. You just take mean-spirited jabs and then take the whole, "I'm so right, I don't even have to argue with you" stance, which anyone can see through. Obviously you're just bitching, because I've never seen a kirblar win a Survivor nor have I even heard of him winning a simulation like an online Survivor game while I have. So excuse me if I doubt your credibility and grasp on Survivor strategy And by the way, no winner on Survivor has made a move anywhere near as bad as your analogy, and that's why it sucks
Last Edited By: RavuRules
10/23/07 9:07 AM.
Edited 2 times.
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Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
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panurge46 wrote: Therefore, she made a mistake by thinking emotionally. I dont think Danielle would of held a grudge against her, there is no evidence that she ever held a grudge except for perhaps Bobby(which is more likely frustration/annoyance). Aras should be given benifit of the doubt that he planned to keep Cirie from getting Shanes vote |
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Monkeyhunt |
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Well, yeah. If something was a bad move, it's a bad move no matter what the outcome was. In that situation, results don't matter. If you're saying that nothing can be impirically judged a bad move on its own - or that it's a logical fallacy to do so - then there's no point in even talking about Survivor strategy, because everyone is always equal and the "quality" of a play is dependent exclusively on its outcome. You have to be able to make that judgment or there's nothing to be discussed: "Well, how can you say it was a bad move without knowing the outcome" is equal to saying that nothing is ever a bad move. Your discussions with Kiblar make it clear you don't really play (or understand, if you do) poker, but that's really all I can use for a comparison. If you make a play that is mathematically incorrect - calling with a hand that is way behind your opponent's range when you aren't getting the right price to do so - it's a mistake, and you screwed up. Period. It doesn't matter what your thought process was, whether you decided it was "worth" making a mistake or not, or anything like that - you will lose money in the long run, so it was a bad play. End of discussion. If it works out, great - it was still a mistake. Great poker players have a mantra: "Don't be results-oriented." It's a huge thing among the best players that just because something worked out doesn't mean it was right, and just because something didn't work out doesn't mean it was wrong. The goal is to make the best possible decisions with the information that you have at that time; whatever happens after is irrelevant. Obviously, the metaphor doesn't extend fully, because it is much harder to determine what the theoretically "correct" play in a Survivor game is than in a poker game due to the huge number of variables. But the basic point stands: you have to be able to determine what was a mistake or not, and results are not relevant to that. Obviously, there is room for debate over whether something was actually a mistake or not, and that's where the subjectivity of any "best of" list comes in. But basing whether something was a "good move" or not on what the result was is totally backward and makes no logical sense. |
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RavuRules |
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Well, yeah. If something was a bad move, it's a bad move no matter what the outcome was. In that situation, results don't matter. Yeah and the issue I have is a lack of identifying what constitutes a "bad move" in Survivor. You are already calling it a "bad move" to begin with, so of course to you, it doesn't matter what the result is. It's like when an atheist asks how a Christian knows how God exists and they answer, "Because the Bible says so". The underlying implication is that they have already decided that The Bible is truth, and have taken the leap of faith in that as the truth. It's a self-fulfilling logic that they can use to assert that God exists without having to actually prove it themselves. What I'm essentially asking is, how do you know the Bible is true? Kirblar never explains what what he's talking about. He makes these completely vague statements (usually critical and biting) with no follow-up or explanation, and sits in his ivory tower and preaches from his soap box
If you're saying that nothing can be impirically judged a bad move on its own - or that it's a logical fallacy to do so - then there's no point in even talking about Survivor strategy, because everyone is always equal and the "quality" of a play is dependent exclusively on its outcome. I'm sort of saying that, but I don't see how weighting "results" in determining whether a move is "good" or "bad" necessitates that everyone is equal nor nullifies the point of talking about Survivor strategy. For 1 thing, some people oversimplify my position. I am not saying you can't use other POVs to evaluate the same move. I agree that sometimes, a move that worked out can be considered "bad" when judged from a GT perspective, or a statistical perspective, etc. My point is at the end of the day, I really feel that results should be our main evaluative compass. Most other types of evaluations tend to be more subjective, theoretical, abstract, and faith-based. 1 thing you can't get away from are facts and scientific data. Is that perfect? No, of course not. Interpreting facts involves its own subjective quality and arbitration, and of course, it's always most important to consider the context in relation to facts. However, I still think evaluations should be centered around the facts mostly with these things in mind. Too often, people kind of conclude, "Facts are meaningless" and then use that to justify basing their ideas and decisions based on whims, because it's easier and allows more room to support their favorites or whatever You have to be able to make that judgment or there's nothing to be discussed: "Well, how can you say it was a bad move without knowing the outcome" is equal to saying that nothing is ever a bad move. No it's not. Saying that "nothing is ever a bad move" is equal to saying that "nothing is ever a bad move". "How can you say it was a bad move without knowing the outcome?" is a totally different idea. When you don't know the outcome to something, then you know it can be EITHER a good move but STILL be a bad move possibly. Nothing is ever a bad move means that when you don't know the outcome, all moves are neutral or good, which is NOT what I'm saying at all. Simply said, I'm saying: Let's not jump to conclusions, ESPECIALLY when the results/facts fly right in the face of what you're proposing
I understand the basics, I just don't know all the technical terms nor studied the statistical strategies for evaluating what moves are optimal and which aren't. And Survivor is not Poker. Survivor is more like a Hold Em, Poker, 7 Card Stud, etc. Each season is a unique game, and judging 1 game by another's standard results in the logical fallacies that I've had an issue with when people want to judge "bad moves" based off of a criteria and strategy that doesn't correlate precisely in the same way as it does in each other season. Now if you can explain why you feel a move is bad, then I'm all ears. Until then, it sounds simply like people are basing "bad moves" on wider generalizations and interpretive theories like GT, which IMO are outdated or need revision If you make a play that is mathematically incorrect - calling with a hand that is way behind your opponent's range when you aren't getting the right price to do so - it's a mistake, and you screwed up. Period. It doesn't matter what your thought process was, whether you decided it was "worth" making a mistake or not, or anything like that - you will lose money in the long run, so it was a bad play. End of discussion. I understand that. What do you think I was talking about when I mentioned the "statistical strategy" involved in poker? From THAT POV or mathematical strategy, yes that would be a "mistake or "bad move". Based on the long run and basic mathematical probabilities, you will lose money in the long run. That is why I said a play can be a bad move and a good move AT THE SAME TIME based on your POV. Even if it's a bad move statistical wise and rationally from that POV, you can hardly call it a bad move" in terms of results though for that specific hand. If that hand and luck with the same results was to repeated over and over again, then you would do that same move every time because it would earn you more and more money. That basic mathematical strategy was formulated BASED on RESULTS itself. So that was largely defined on a series of results which netted data and hence a formulaic strategy that should be used as a GUIDELINE (not absolute though since social and contextual strategies also come into play) That is where I feel the logical fallacy comes into play. You are favoring 1 form of results over another form of results, and its fine if you understand that, but based on some of the things people say, it appears they don't. They believe in the black-and-white world of either a move is good or bad, but it can't be both at the same time. People don't understand "perspective". The problem with applying poker logic to Survivor is that poker at least has a fairly dependable statistical strategy that the pros use to do well in poker, based on mathematical certainties and constant variables. Survivor is WAY more random or luck-based than poker, so the analogy isn't as applicable. Poker is probably 1 of the better analogies, but it's still not a perfect match. The format of Survivor changes from season to season and we do not have a corresponding system for determining what makes a move "good" or "bad" in Survivor. GT is 1 of the few that I know of that tries, but with the newer seasons, it doesn't necessarily even do such a great job from a statistical standpoint or predicting events and results If it works out, great - it was still a mistake. Great poker players have a mantra: "Don't be results-oriented." It's a huge thing among the best players that just because something worked out doesn't mean it was right, and just because something didn't work out doesn't mean it was wrong. The goal is to make the best possible decisions with the information that you have at that time; whatever happens after is irrelevant. I think we're having a semantic issue. Great poker players are results-oriented, despite that mantra. They are talking about 1 kind of "results" but ultimately, their plays are based off of different types of results: (1) Statistics = Rational ideas of what move to make based on basic probabilities and number crunching. These are mathematical RESULTS (2) Instincts = Often honed by experienced, which guess what--is RESULTS (3) Social strategy = Bluffing, reading people, etc. also influenced by life experience and mental acuity which, surprise surprise, is RESULTS So what you have a problem with is the favoring of a short-term result (generalization based off of 1 successful hand) versus long-term ones (generalizations based off many). But, each type of evaluation is based off of results Obviously, the metaphor doesn't extend fully, because it is much harder to determine what the theoretically "correct" play in a Survivor game is than in a poker game due to the huge number of variables. But the basic point stands: you have to be able to determine what was a mistake or not, and results are not relevant to that. Obviously, there is room for debate over whether something was actually a mistake or not, and that's where the subjectivity of any "best of" list comes in. But basing whether something was a "good move" or not on what the result was is totally backward and makes no logical sense. Well I already explained it above, but again, it's absolutely not backwards, its actually common sense and completely logical. If you lack a long-term results or theoretical/statistical breakdown of what constitutes good and bad gameplay, than obviously, it's certainly not a bad thing to look at a short-term result and evaluate it based on the result. Does that mean you forsake context? Absolutely not. That is why, contrary to how Kirblar tries to frame it, I do not saying that the ends always justify the means. That is NOT what I'm saying. I'm just saying, I am more dubious when you call a successful move "poor" without some kind of proof or strong argument (which Kirblar never gives), when the short-term results fly right in the face of what you're saying. I don't think that's unreasonable at all |
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Monkeyhunt |
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Yeah and the issue I have is a lack of identifying what constitutes a "bad move" in Survivor. You are already calling it a "bad move" to begin with, so of course to you, it doesn't matter what the result is.Again: Well, yes. If I think something is a bad move based on the information that was available to a player at the time, then I don't think it matters what the result is. Obviously you have to explain why it was a bad move (or a good one), which is the point I was trying to make, and opinions on that front can and will diverge - but I don't think the results of the move should have any part in the argument except in occasional circumstances (eg. when a move is very close between right or wrong and seems to depend on a specific insight or look into how others are going to respond, in which case what we see as the results can show us whether the decision-maker's thought process was accurate or not). I'm sort of saying that, but I don't see how weighting "results" in determining whether a move is "good" or "bad" necessitates that everyone is equal nor nullifies the point of talking about Survivor strategy. For 1 thing, some people oversimplify my position. I am not saying you can't use other POVs to evaluate the same move. I agree that sometimes, a move that worked out can be considered "bad" when judged from a GT perspective, or a statistical perspective, etc. My point is at the end of the day, I really feel that results should be our main evaluative compass. Most other types of evaluations tend to be more subjective, theoretical, abstract, and faith-based. 1 thing you can't get away from are facts and scientific data. Is that perfect? No, of course not. Interpreting facts involves its own subjective quality and arbitration, and of course, it's always most important to consider the context in relation to facts. However, I still think evaluations should be centered around the facts mostly with these things in mind. Too often, people kind of conclude, "Facts are meaningless" and then use that to justify basing their ideas and decisions based on whims, because it's easier and allows more room to support their favorites or whateverBut the people arguing for not considering results are considering facts - just not the same ones as you. We look at the circumstances of the game at the time the decision was made, how people related to each other, game theoretical considerations, etc. etc. - those are facts as well. And admittedly, they do require more abstract, opinionated thinking than results-oriented thinking, but that doesn't make it inferior. You bring up subjectivity like it's a bad thing, when in actuality I think subjective thinking is a better way of looking at Survivor strategy. Because of the hundreds of thousands of millions of variables and permutations in the game, it is flatly impossible to make any objective judgment of strategy, and subjective arguments, while more abstract, tend to also be more considered, subtle, and useful than whatever objective measurements someone could make. The reason focusing on results makes discussion pointless is that every argument can be ended with, "But it worked, so it was a good move," - or, inversely, "It didn't work, so it was a bad move" - which leaves no more room for discussion, as you saw in your thread. As long as it was, and as good as it was, it eventually devolved into everyone repeating the same arguments over and over without getting anywhere. Okay, that paragraph sucked. What I'm trying to say is this: The simple difference in looking at results primarily versus in the moment decisions is itself subjective, and it is subjective on a much more fundamental and broader scale than the differences in opinion on one player's decision at a specific moment in time. It's the difference between arguing over whether Jesus actually existed and arguing over what he meant. If you stop at the discussion as to whether Jesus was real, there is no need to even broach the other subject; if I don't think he was real, why should I even think about what he said? This is not to say that you are only focused on results, simply that, taken to an extreme, that position eliminates any discussion - if a play worked, it was good - and by your own admission that is the driving force behind your opinions. Simply said, I'm saying: Let's not jump to conclusions, ESPECIALLY when the results/facts fly right in the face of what you're proposingBut this is itself a matter of opinion. I repeat: Except in rare circumstances where the results reveal important facets in the decision-making process, I don't care about them. The player didn't know for sure how his play was going to work out, so I don't think we should take it into consideration. A strategic decision in Survivor is, as you acknowledge, made based on available information; if a player's decision flies in the face of what I understand the information to be or applies it incorrectly, then that's all I need. Again, the excecption being if the results make it clear that my understanding of the information was faulty - which is different from the player making a mistake but it not hurting them. That is why I said a play can be a bad move and a good move AT THE SAME TIME based on your POV. Even if it's a bad move statistical wise and rationally from that POV, you can hardly call it a bad move" in terms of results though for that specific hand.In poker at least you absolutely can, and that's just not arguable except as maybe an issue of semantics. And it is simply because the results of one hand don't matter; or, rather, results in the short term don't matter. They just don't. I understand what you are saying with regards to Survivor being only short term decisions and results, and obviously poker is not a perfect metaphor, although for theoretical ways to discuss strategy, it works pretty well. I'll get to that in a minute. I think we're having a semantic issue. Great poker players are results-oriented, despite that mantra. They are talking about 1 kind of "results" but ultimately, their plays are based off of different types of results:Sure. They care about expected results - what the math and other factors predict should happen - and I'm referring to actual results - what did happen this one time. These are different things, and should not be confused. They are both results, but they tell us very different things and are significant in very different ways (the actual results' significance being basically zero - in the context of poker). I want to say that I feel like this last post of yours has done an excellent job of clarifying your position. I suppose when you're dealing with an antagonistic opponent (like Kirblar), it is harder to make yourself understood since the argument inevitably becomes emotional. I do understand where you are coming from, and I guess I even agree on some theoretical level, if not in application. There is no "long term" in Survivor, since each season does have very different circumstances (which is why when I rank winners/players I don't do it based on their actual strategic performance but rather what I see as their ability to think through different circumstances strategically, which is of course harder and more subjective). There is no single "perfect" Survivor strategy, although I feel that there are things players can do to maximize their expectation in any given season. I think we just differ on what should take precedence in judging an individual move's strategic value - you think (and please, if I'm off-base, tell me) that results come first because that's the only thing we can know with 100% certainty: what happened. I would prefer to go by what we know with 80%, 90%, 95% certainty, because if we're really trying to discuss strategy, the power luck has over the game needs to be minimized as much as possible, and I feel like the actual results are too tainted by that - they are, to at least some degree, independent of the quality of the decision - to be the driving aspect. If I'm not sure about a decision, or if I feel what I know is simply too unsure to make a confident statement, I'll look at results; I'm willing to acknowledge that my information is imperfect, and that a player's information, while still imperfect, is probably better than mine - that there was a reason for the actual results and the expected results to converge that the player knew that I couldn't. If I'm confident that the expected result and actual result are different, however, than the actual result is nigh-meaningless to me. Shit. I must really like to hear myself talk. |
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SurvivorSurvey |
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Why?
No you obviously do not understand the situation. In many cases there are more than one moves that would be considered correct. You don't always have to make the optimal move in my system. The thing you don't seem to understand is for different parts of the game the voting criteria is different. Once a twist occurs the voting criteria changes as it does once you hit the merge.
I find that illogical. We were able to gleam the extent and limits of their abilities from watching their gameplay in that season regardless of a victory or a loss. In terms of not having a chance to win, that is not what led to Tina and Hatch's lower ranking at all. In fact, against popular misconception Ethan's ranking was raised by All-Stars since he proved that he could do decently without riding the coattails of a male alliance
Tina final score was affected by this but she still remained on top. I would argue that the Australia cast was just as strong as the Cook Islands cast if not stronger.
Absolutely not. That is a horrible metaphor. I already explained why it was wrong in my thread, and he never responded to it, because he knows he's wrong. As I said before, in your analogy, the poker player who wins with the 2/7 made a "bad move" in terms of rational statistical calculations, but because he did manage his luck, you can't say he made the "wrong move". If it really was "bad" then I'll take a billion such "bad moves" that lead to victories any day over "good moves" which fail due to bad luck. "It's better lucky than good". No one is saying that poker player is a better player or smarter player than the others who lost that round, but you can't say he made a "bad move" in that particular instance
Using your logic if my team is leading by 2 points in a basketball game with 10 seconds remaining and my team has the ball and I shoot and miss but the other team don't score that is a good move. It is a horrible move I just got lucky that my opposition wasn't good enough to capitalise on it.
How can you say that Chris and Sandra didn't make mistakes? Voting out Tijuana at final 7 was a terrible move for Sandra but because of equal terrible play by her opposition later on she got back in the game. However, that does not stop the fact that the move was a terrible one. It did nothing to improve her game position when voting out Fairplay or Burton would have. Just because it ended up working for you doesn't make it a good move. That's the flaw in your system.
Chris move, of voting out John K, was a mistake in the context of any game. That move ended every
other man's game except for Chris who lucked out. He did nothing to earn his spot in the end-game their and if it wasn't for Scout and Twila he would
have been sitting on the jury. Chris played a horrible strategic game and how you can have him 4th you have really never explained.
Now I'm not like Kirblar and I think that your system does have some excellent points and some value but there are still many flaws in it which I think makes my system better. |
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RavuRules wrote: But moves made by Ethan, Sandra and Chris should have been game-ending. A move is a mistake when it lessens your chances of winning the game significantly and thats what Ethan, Sandra and Chris did. |
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Gotta jump in on the John K. thing. That actually wasn't a fuck-up. John would have flipped to the women at the merge for sure because he would have never
accepted a 5th wheel slot with the guys and risked a purple rock, while they still had a glimmer of hope that Twila/Julie would stick with them.
The Lopevi dynamics ensured that once they went into the swap undermanned, they were almost assuredly going to be playing out of a minority situation. Look at how Julie managed to get back into the majority with the women after the swap. There was no chance of something like that happening with John K and the older men. I don't think Chris was one of the strongest winners, but he was playing decently out of a really bad situation, unlike Sandra and Ethan, who made absolutely terrible play errors while they had control of the game.
Last Edited By: Kirblar
10/23/07 6:15 PM.
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Sandra's move might not have been TOO bad, given that it singled Darrah out, leaving her as a free agent, left Burton and Jon around to keep making asses
of themselves to Lill, and led to Christa going home, which was the last obstacle in Sandra's path.
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Monkeyhunt. I am very impressed with your thought process. I feel you are 1 of the few who understand my position and are willing to actually listen to what
I have to say (or understand it) even if you don't agree. I've never seen you around before until now, and I wish you'd have posted in my thread
before and offered your insights
I agree! That's what I think. The problem I've been having is when I find a case to be ambiguous and someone else thinks its a clear cut case of a bad move, and I'm like: explain, and they say: I don't have to But the people arguing for not considering results are considering facts - just not the same ones as you. We look at the circumstances of the game at the time the decision was made, how people related to each other, game theoretical considerations, etc. etc. - those are facts as well. And admittedly, they do require more abstract, opinionated thinking than results-oriented thinking, but that doesn't make it inferior. That's why I gave the disclaimer in my thread that I still could be wrong because facts aren't absolute, and I welcomed discussion even if it disagreed with mine. As long there was some decent logic behind it, I can swallow it. The problem is when an argument is full of holes or so completely against the facts that it becomes a conspiracy theory or a blatantly biased or campaigning for someone's favorite winner. Then, I'm less likely to be amenable to such discussion. It's clear that it's not so much a debate as opposed to a ramming of the same points and assumptions over and over again. I have been clear with my biases, and mine happens to lay more in weighting results. They have served me well in life and in different scenarios including online Survivor games. Others may have more success with their personal instincts or faith-based opinions and that's fine too You bring up subjectivity like it's a bad thing, when in actuality I think subjective thinking is a better way of looking at Survivor strategy. Well, I wouldn't say it's "bad," but I'm more leery of subjectivity. Non-fact based arguments tend to revolve around individual biases and preferences for emotional evaluations like favorite winner, specific types of gameplay preferences (i.e. respecting overt game control over a subtle game controller, respecting a player who makes ballsy or risky moves, liking a fun character, etc.). Science and objectivity (or the striving towards it) has produced much more concrete knowledge in the history of mankind, and that's why I favor the methods that resemble academic type epistemology more. Is it flawless or perfect? No. I find it more reliable than the more whimsical and non-fact based assumptions and speculations of the normal everyday person who doesn't really have a broad perspective or sort of haphazardly comes up with conclusions In terms of subjective thinking being better than objectivity, I flat out disagree on that one. I think it has its place, but I personally just don't think that leads to more realistic knowledge. I've made decisions when I was guided by emotions and subjectivity, and later in life (like now) when its guided more by facts, and for me, I find the latter to be much more accurate and useful to me than my earlier phases when my reality was constructed based on less concrete data. I think my instincts are pretty good, but they have definitely failed me before, and that's why I tend to trust "results" or concrete data more. They have served me much better Because of the hundreds of thousands of millions of variables and permutations in the game, it is flatly impossible to make any objective judgment of strategy, and subjective arguments, while more abstract, tend to also be more considered, subtle, and useful than whatever objective measurements someone could make. Can you give me an example? I think subjective ideas can be more interesting or fun to toss around, but they definitely don't seem more accurate to me. Complete objectivity is of course impossible, but that doesn't mean we should dismiss it entirely and throw it out the window. I dislike when people use that as a cop-out. It's like saying no one should ever be ethnical, since it's impossible to be perfect or 100% virtuous
I think there is plenty of room for discussion for the more ambiguous topics. I understand what you're saying though, but what are we supposed to do? Invalidate the facts because they end debate?
That's just human nature though. People have set opinions and get attached to their ideas. There are plenty of other topics that could and should get discussed, but people only like to talk about the hot topics. I wish you would participate, since you have an interesting POV, and I feel you've articulated it pretty well. A lot of posters probably take your stance, and I'm annoyed that Kirblar tries to be the mouthpiece for such counter opinions, because he sucks as a representative. He also constantly reduces my ideas into simplistic 1-dimensional soundbytes which are not reflective of my true position Okay, that paragraph sucked. What I'm trying to say is this: The simple difference in looking at results primarily versus in the moment decisions is itself subjective, and it is subjective on a much more fundamental and broader scale than the differences in opinion on one player's decision at a specific moment in time. It's the difference between arguing over whether Jesus actually existed and arguing over what he meant. If you stop at the discussion as to whether Jesus was real, there is no need to even broach the other subject; if I don't think he was real, why should I even think about what he said? This is not to say that you are only focused on results, simply that, taken to an extreme, that position eliminates any discussion - if a play worked, it was good - and by your own admission that is the driving force behind your opinions. True. But why do people only feel they can discuss whether a move is "good" or "bad"? Why can't we discuss how a move was good AND bad at the same time. Like you can criticize that a move was potentially bad or not optimal while still recognizing that it worked out and we don't necessarily knock the person who made it. However, why do we have to only decide that a move is ONLY good or ONLY bad? That doesn't seem accurate to me. I favor results, but like I said, it's not the only POV I consider. That's why I say I focus on context just as much as results. Results tends to trump the other types of evaluations for me, but I still consider all the other subjective ones as well and factor those in. Like you and I have both said, all the speculations are subjective to their own extent anyways But this is itself a matter of opinion. I repeat: Except in rare circumstances where the results reveal important facets in the decision-making process, I don't care about them. The player didn't know for sure how his play was going to work out, so I don't think we should take it into consideration. I disagree. Why would you blatantly ignore such facts? Technically, no players knows exactly "for sure" how their plays are going to work out until it actually happens. I say you consider it regardless, while still being able to speculate and do your subjective interpretations. However, at the end of the day, don't go overboard and start believing a conspiracy theory constitutes fact. I'm not saying you do that, but a lot of others DEFINITELY do. If they repeat it long enough, they really start to believe it, and then it just gets ridiculous. At the least, facts keep people grounded
Okay, all this hypothetical and theoretical talk hurts my brain. Maybe we should start using some clear cut specific examples, and go from there so our positions can be more clear. Anyone in particular you have in mind? It seems like you disagree with me from your tone, but what you're actually saying is a lot like how I think In poker at least you absolutely can, and that's just not arguable except as maybe an issue of semantics. And it is simply because the results of one hand don't matter; or, rather, results in the short term don't matter. They just don't. "They just don't" is a cop-out answer. If it's a million dollar bet, you can bet that 1 hand matters. I'll take the "wrong move" that wins me a million any day. It's not a "bad move" even if it's economically irrational or wrong from the poker basics perspective and idiotic by most standards. You know I'm right on this. This is definitely a semantic issue, but really "good," "bad," "right," "wrong" are usually and largely defined by results in 1 form or another. That million dollar move cannot ONLY be considered a "bad move". There are too many POVs for that to be the case. Now, if you're talking about best player or best strategist, then I'd say it was an example of a "bad move" by an uneducated player. However, in regards to the Survivor players, we don't have that same backdrop of clear cut standards of what makes for a perfect Survivor strategy in each and every season given that each 1 is an entirely different game than the next
We're on the same page with this. My problem is applying the poker analogy too strictly to Survivor, let alone making broader generalizations of how 1 questionable move means they suck as a player. Again, I think people get way to caught up on "mistakes" and "perfection bias"
Thank you. I have actually gone in-depth of this topic several times, but you may have missed it. When I posted it, no one really discussed what I read, which tells me they didn't read it, skimmed it, didn't understand it, didn't care about it, or didn't find it interesting or relevant enough to talk about it
Yup. I actually don't give a rats ass about what Kirblar thinks, since he obviously doesn't respect me as a thinker or poster, but I want to make it clear to the public who is disagreeing with me due to logical thoughts versus who's just being an asshole. Currently, Kirblar is the only poster I have a personal issue with and who really has done everything in his power to de-legitimize my ranking unfairly and has never respected it from the beginning. He's never taken the time to debate or discuss the topics, basically saying, "You're wrong, and you're an idiot" in various different ways throughout the thread's existence I do understand where you are coming from, and I guess I even agree on some theoretical level, if not in application. There is no "long term" in Survivor, since each season does have very different circumstances (which is why when I rank winners/players I don't do it based on their actual strategic performance but rather what I see as their ability to think through different circumstances strategically, which is of course harder and more subjective). There is no single "perfect" Survivor strategy, although I feel that there are things players can do to maximize their expectation in any given season. I totally agree with all of this
I understand what you're saying and agree that is the main difference in our opinions. My issue is that luck can't simply minimized, because the nature of Survivor is SO luck-based despite what we'd like to believe as viewers. We all want to believe it's mostly a fair game, that the best or most skilled player wins, that people have a say in their destiny, etc. The reality is, that is not necessarily the case. Luck and strategy are also intertwined, since luck affects strategy, and strategy affects luck. They are inter-dependent relationships, and when people try to separate the 2 into discrete concepts, it does not seem accurate to me. You can separate skill and luck to an extent, but often there is significant overlap If I'm not sure about a decision, or if I feel what I know is simply too unsure to make a confident statement, I'll look at results; I'm willing to acknowledge that my information is imperfect, and that a player's information, while still imperfect, is probably better than mine - that there was a reason for the actual results and the expected results to converge that the player knew that I couldn't. If I'm confident that the expected result and actual result are different, however, than the actual result is nigh-meaningless to me. Yeah, of course I have no problem with that. I think the same! The problem is when I think people are taking an ambiguous situation from my POV and saying, "Obviously, that was a bad/wrong move!" and I'm like, "Why?". And they don't answer except that it was "bad" . It just is. Like that's supposed to convince me or
something. We need some concrete examples to discuss, because of all the posters I've met so far (those who agree and disagree with me), I feel you and I
might think the most similarly
I love it! This is 1 of the more thought-provoking discussions I've had here in ages |
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But Hatch and Tina didn't win in All- Stars so that should not form part of a winner analysis. Just as how Amber's play in Australia should not take away the game that she played in All-Stars Well, no need to debate this. You are judging them based on who played their 1st game the most perfectly, and I'm basing mine ranking on their skills. That is why ASS is relevant in mine in not in yours, since it showed me how they perform in a different scenario. In this case, how do they fare with crap luck. They differ from Amber in that Amber's win came after her rookie season, where Tina and Hatch likely didn't become significantly worse than their original stints Tina final score was affected by this but she still remained on top. I would argue that the Australia cast was just as strong as the Cook Islands cast if not stronger.
Using your logic if my team is leading by 2 points in a basketball game with 10 seconds remaining and my team has the ball and I shoot and miss but the other team don't score that is a good move. No. That's not what I'm saying at all. You either didn't read what
I've said, don't understand it, or are completely buying what Kirblar is selling as my position. A move that is "not bad" does not
automatically make it "good". If we can't conclusively say a move was good, then we can't conclusively say it was bad either. It could
be either, but we lack enough information to make a real claim or stance on it. We acknowledge that it could possible be 1 or the other, or perhaps both
You could say the exact same thing for Tina! It was like the same potentially game-ending level mistake. Results indicate that both had a firm grasp of their situation though. Clearly, Tina was in no real danger, and Sandra has mentioned in post-game interviews that she had strategic reasons for booting T at F7. T had an alliance with Darrah, Lill, and Fairplay/Burton at that point, and Sandra needed to break that up more than boot someone like Burton. She took the calculated risk in the hopes that Darrah would side with her after T was gone, instead of Burton/Fairplay, and she was right. I didn't know if she really had thought of this or just lucked out, until lately, but I read a post-game interview, and she did in fact have this in mind. It was a brilliant move then both in foresight and results
That's not my position though. I'm not stupid as Kirblar tries to make me out to be you know. In this case, the move DID improve her game position dramatically, because if she voted a distraction like Fairplay or Burton out, then who it becomes Lill/Tijuana/Darrah vs. Sandra/Christa, with Burton/Fairplay as the swing vote. Tijuana would've been a much worse opponent than Burton/Fairplay, because she'd be a smaller target, as well as being better connected to both Lill and Darrah than either Sandra or Christa. Sandra would be forced to rely on Burton/Fairplay who were the more unreliable players for Sandra at that time. Sandra was much better off working with a willing and open-minded Darrah like she consciously predicted and planned on
It's all there in my 1st post. You have never questioned it in my thread, so the topic never has really come up. Voting John K. was likely not a mistake. He knew he was an outsider and was ready to flip at an opportunity. He just never got the chance.
Not sure about the Chris voting John K. thing out being a mistake. That is up in the air IMO, and hardly
can be considered a "bad move" for sure. Tina voting out Jerri is more questionable than what he did. I definitely disagree with Sandra voting
T out being a mistake. That was 1 of her best plays from my POV. She got rid of a much bigger threat, since Burton could be scapegoated at any time due
to being an alpha male on-the-radar threat. She guaranteed herself to F3 in that way, because Christa, Burton, and Darrah were always going to be bigger
threats than she was
What are the flaws? You haven't really posted in my thread too much. Please
don't say the whole "results covering up a bad move" thing as 1 though, since that is NOT my position
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Monkeyhunt |
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Ravu: I don't want to derail this thread too much with theoretical mumbo-jumbo, since it seems unfair to the original poster, who put a lot of thought and
energy into his post and deserves to have it discussed. But I appreciate your kind words and want to answer a few of your questions.
In terms of subjective thinking being better than objectivity, I flat out disagree on that one. I think it has its place, but I personally just don't think that leads to more realistic knowledge. I've made decisions when I was guided by emotions and subjectivity, and later in life (like now) when its guided more by facts, and for me, I find the latter to be much more accurate and useful to me than my earlier phases when my reality was constructed based on less concrete data.Sorry, I must not have been clear. In general, you're absolutely right. In life and in real decisions, objective decision-making is definitely better than subjective. I was referring specifically to the discussion Survivor strategy, where I feel like subjective discussion is better suited to exploring the many variables and nuances of the game. Which does not mean that objectivity should be totally thrown out - in fact, I feel like discussion can be subjective and objective, as long as we try to distance ourselves from emotion and really try to examine strategy. It still obviously leaves room for differences in opinions and approaches, but that's what makes the game so fascinating and discussing it so fun. I understand what you're saying though, but what are we supposed to do? Invalidate the facts because they end debate?No, but I think you put too much emphasis on the results as especially meaningful. No one is saying flat-out ignore the facts, just that there are much more important aspects of the process to discuss. And as I said in my previous post, there are facts beyond the results that even those who don't care about the results do (or should) consider when forming their opinions. I'm also not saying that simply bringing up results ends debate, because it clearly doesn't. I'm saying that when you treat the result as the end-all of the argument - the old "it worked, so it was right" - any other discussion becomes, if not impossible, then largely pointless. Again, not saying you do this; I'm just taking the theory to its extreme. True. But why do people only feel they can discuss whether a move is "good" or "bad"? Why can't we discuss how a move was good AND bad at the same time. Like you can criticize that a move was potentially bad or not optimal while still recognizing that it worked out and we don't necessarily knock the person who made it. However, why do we have to only decide that a move is ONLY good or ONLY bad?That's just the only way that makes sense to me. I can't look at a strategic decision that I feel was a mistake but worked out and say that the move was "good." To me, in a strategic game, be it Survivor or poker or Risk, mistake=bad move. It can end up being an effective move, or a helpful move, but I can't see it as a "good" move (so this might just be an issue of semantics). And when we're discussing a player as a strategist, why shouldn't we take credit away for strategic mistakes, even if they worked? To me, that's the very first thing I consider when comparing players as strategists. I disagree. Why would you blatantly ignore such facts? Technically, no players knows exactly "for sure" how their plays are going to work out until it actually happens. I say you consider it regardless, while still being able to speculate and do your subjective interpretations. However, at the end of the day, don't go overboard and start believing a conspiracy theory constitutes fact.I might not have been clear, but I don't "ignore" it. I just think it should be the last thing, rather than the primary thing, that we consider. I'm not sure what you mean by "conspiracy theory" - I'm not saying that you should believe something that blatantly contradicts the results (like, I dunno, saying that Jenna's behavior made the jury hate her), just that an examination of whether a player's actions were the best or most logical w/r/t the information available at the time should come first. "They just don't" is a cop-out answer. If it's a million dollar bet, you can bet that 1 hand matters. I'll take the "wrong move" that wins me a million any day. It's not a "bad move" even if it's economically irrational or wrong from the poker basics perspective and idiotic by most standards. You know I'm right on this. This is definitely a semantic issue, but really "good," "bad," "right," "wrong" are usually and largely defined by results in 1 form or another. That million dollar move cannot ONLY be considered a "bad move". There are too many POVs for that to be the case. Now, if you're talking about best player or best strategist, then I'd say it was an example of a "bad move" by an uneducated player. However, in regards to the Survivor players, we don't have that same backdrop of clear cut standards of what makes for a perfect Survivor strategy in each and every season given that each 1 is an entirely different game than the nextYes, you are technically "right," but we're arguing parallel issues. This gets to the bottom of our differences: In a game like poker especially, when having these discussions, I don't care about any viewpoints other than what is correct strategically. When I say "good move" I am referring exclusively to the strategic value of that move. A million dollar hand is important to the winner/loser of the money, but I don't care about the emotional importance of a decision, or about the luck of that decision. When you say "if you're talking about best player or best strategist," I wonder, "what else could you be talking about?" Biggest winner? Most successful player in that one hand, or that one game? In those contexts, sure, okay, it was a "good" move to achieve that result. But those contexts are meaningless to me. My problem is applying the poker analogy too strictly to Survivor, let alone making broader generalizations of how 1 questionable move means they suck as a player.This is just me, but I'm not one to claim that one mistake means that someone "sucks" as a player. If I were to list my choices for the best strategic players, there are several players near the very top of the list that I would admit made a mistake, or even multiple mistakes. As I said in the previous post, my choices are based on who I think has the best through processes - not necessarily who made the fewest mistakes or made the biggest moves - although I do consider both of those things. It all depends on the "type" of mistake - whether it was a mistake that I feel shows a lack of strategic understanding (as with Ethan or Sandra) versus a mistake that was a result of strategically processing faulty information or a reasonable gamble that didn't pay off (like Rafe or Yau-Man). Again, I think people get way to caught up on "mistakes" and "perfection bias"I remember this from your original thread, and it's still one of the areas where I most strongly disagree with you. I understand your position of "perfection bias" and I agree to some extent, as what I said above shows (I think Rafe is a "better" player than Heidik, for example, even if he didn't play as "perfectly"), but I just can't comprehend the thinking that mistakes don't matter - or that we get too hung up on them. When comparing players, I don't see what else could be the driving comparison: who made the most mistakes. If someone made mistakes but got lucky to win, I don't see how they can be seen as a "better" player than one who didn't. It doesn't necessarily make them a "worse" player, but with the short-term information we have, I feel like the player who made a lot of mistakes has to be ranked lower than the one who didn't. My issue is that luck can't simply minimized, because the nature of Survivor is SO luck-based despite what we'd like to believe as viewers. We all want to believe it's mostly a fair game, that the best or most skilled player wins, that people have a say in their destiny, etc. The reality is, that is not necessarily the caseOf course the best/most skilled player doesn't always win, and that random twists, etc. can influence the game quite a bit; I don't think I've seen anyone argue otherwise. I'm not sure I see your point with this, though. What does this have to do with analyzing a player's skill as a strategist, unless you are going to argue that luck is some sort of unquantifiable skill. Luck and strategy are also intertwined, since luck affects strategy, and strategy affects luck. They are inter-dependent relationships, and when people try to separate the 2 into discrete concepts, it does not seem accurate to me. You can separate skill and luck to an extent, but often there is significant overlapLuck up to the point of the decision-making affects strategy in that it influences the information that is processed by the player. But I don't consider the results caused by a strategic decision luck unless the results were not what was expected, in which case I don't consider them in examining the decision. This is how I think luck, if not eliminated, can be pushed aside to some extent when discussing strategy/skill: by analyzing a player's decision in the context of what happened up to that point, and by comparing a player's reason for making the move with the expected result. Maybe we should start using some clear cut specific examples, and go from there so our positions can be more clear. Anyone in particular you have in mind? It seems like you disagree with me from your tone, but what you're actually saying is a lot like how I think I think you are right in that results can be useful. The difference is that I use it as supplemental information, and you use it as primary information. For instance: Lex booting Kelly in Africa. There is no reason that that should not have ended his game in spectacular fashion. If not for other people fucking up - which he had nothing to do with - he would have been out next, and yet it didn't hurt his game at all. In that spot, I couldn't care less about what the actual result was, since his play was so obviously bad. (Maybe you agree with me on this, I don't know; but it's the biggest example I can think of where the expected and actual results are so different as to render the actual result meaningless in the discussion of strategic ability.) And example of where the result provides information that is useful would be Tina booting Jerri in Outback. At the time, I thought it was unecessarily risky; the result, however, along with subsequent interviews and commentaries, show me that Tina had such a firm grasp on every single person in the game that the actual expected outcome of her decision was different from what it seemed to be on television. I now think the decision to boot Jerri is one of the best plays Tina made. In this case, however, I don't think of it as "It worked, so it wasn't a mistake" - I think of it as "It wasn't a mistake, which is why it worked." It's totally different from the Lex example. It's possible, but in your original thread I did argue with you on Tina and Richard. Of course, so did everyone else, so I'm not sure how significant that is. On the other hand, the middle rankings of your thread I didn't have a big problem with; just the players you had at the top and bottom. Other than that, it is possible we approach things from similar positions. I do think that Yul is one of the absolute best players ever, for instance, even if he had to get lucky, because he made the right decision at pretty much every point. I guess I lied about not derailing the thread. Sorry SurvivorSurvey. |
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Ravu: I don't want to derail this thread too much with theoretical mumbo-jumbo, since it seems unfair to the original poster, who put a lot of thought and energy into his post and deserves to have it discussed. But I appreciate your kind words and want to answer a few of your questions. I don't think SS will mind. If he does, we can just move the discussion. If anything, our discussion is bumping this thread and giving it more exposure Sorry, I must not have been clear. In general, you're absolutely right. In life and in real decisions, objective decision-making is definitely better than subjective. I was referring specifically to the discussion Survivor strategy, where I feel like subjective discussion is better suited to exploring the many variables and nuances of the game. Which does not mean that objectivity should be totally thrown out - in fact, I feel like discussion can be subjective and objective, as long as we try to distance ourselves from emotion and really try to examine strategy. It still obviously leaves room for differences in opinions and approaches, but that's what makes the game so fascinating and discussing it so fun. Oh yeah, I have no problem using subjective POVs to discuss issues, but I just shy away from favoring them over something more objective and fact-based. Not always of course, but as a general guideline No, but I think you put too much emphasis on the results as especially meaningful. No one is saying flat-out ignore the facts, just that there are much more important aspects of the process to discuss. And as I said in my previous post, there are facts beyond the results that even those who don't care about the results do (or should) consider when forming their opinions. Of course. In my experience though, examining results actually leads to some more meaningful discussion and accuracy regarding the mentality of the players out there that we don't see. For instance, I had some theories regarding the thought-process behind some players like Sandra, Jenna, and Adam contrary to Sucks speculation but based on the results. I did not know for sure if I was right or not, but based on the results of their actions contrasting greatly from speculated ideas of their true intentions (most due to bad or incomplete editing), I decided those were avenues of thought to pursue. When Jenna and Adam posted in my thread, they confirmed that they indeed think of the topics that I thought they might've considered. Unless they're lying just to look better, which I don't think they were, it confirmed to me that you can sort of figure out some of the more subjective and ambiguous nuances of the game by examining the results much more effectively than wild guesses not based on anything substantial. With the Sandra taking Tijuana argument, I initially thought she did it on purpose, and ranked her #2. Later, after a bunch of haters tore her down and re-watching the season, it did seem she didn't really have strategic reasons for getting rid of her and perhaps followed Fairplay like a puppet, so I dropped her ranking. Then, I investigated for myself to figure out what happened: http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article3924.art&page=1
Here, Sandra demonstrates that she had a definite plan and strategy in mind, and things worked out exactly as she had anticipated. In other words, she figured out a creative solution to her problem that many didn't anticipate and proactively positioned herself to F3 with excellent well thought-out strategy, with the results supporting and proving both her abilities and the ambiguity of her assessment abilities out there. This is completely contrary to the perhaps popular and not-so-accurate idea of a Sandra with no long-term strategy in her head who just wants to survive each round with no regard to her long-term position in the game. Looking at the facts, you could've figured out that the misconception was just that, but most people don't go that far with their thought process. It's usually a lot easier to give people less credit and assume they are dumb. Most people are pretty complex and quite intelligent in my experience That's just the only way that makes sense to me. I can't look at a strategic decision that I feel was a mistake but worked out and say that the move was "good." To me, in a strategic game, be it Survivor or poker or Risk, mistake=bad move. It can end up being an effective move, or a helpful move, but I can't see it as a "good" move (so this might just be an issue of semantics). You seem like a mental guy. I'm sure you are able to compartmentalize facts into different categories in your mind and see things from multiple POVs. I mean, if you don't want to call it "good" out of planning principle, I understand that. But you CLEARLY understand how it CAN be seen as a "good move" given the "good result" based on a results perspective, and you know what I think, so I don't know why you would have a problem with the semantics. You know what I mean. I'm not making any broader generalizations about that particular move. I'm not saying, "Hey guys. Repeat that same move" in a different context. I'm not even necessarily calling it a "good move". I'm just saying, "Hey, it wasn't bad," because clearly, it was a "good" one from an isolated, contextual standpoint. "Good" as in, if you had to do it all over again with the exact same factors--you would And when we're discussing a player as a strategist, why shouldn't we take credit away for strategic mistakes, even if they worked? To me, that's the very first thing I consider when comparing players as strategists. That's why I said, my ranking evaluates "winningness" not "best strategist". That thread was not even about the best player necessarily. It was, who do I think would win over and over again. And winning in Survivor involves more than strategy. It involves a lot of luck and a variety of other skills and factors. For instance, someone like Terry would likely make it very far in the game over and over again, even though he wouldn't necessarily be the smartest player. He's smart enough, and his physical skills can take him the rest of the way. Tina, Cirie, Lydia, Sandra, etc. inherent strength is a combination of their physical stature and mental abilities. They are all smart enough to survive early rounds with strategy and intellect AND they fit a demographic that will often go all the way to the end if they make it past the pre-merge phase There are many qualities that make a good Survivor BESIDES strategy and that's what I'm trying to make people aware of. One's demographic position wouldn't be considered a "skill" but it DEFINITELY impacts their winning probability and thus is 1 of many factors to be considered that doesn't necessarily fall under luck but not skill either. For the sake of simplicity, I explained how I slotted it under "skill" but it's not really "skill" in the sense of strategic or physical ability honed by that contestant over life experience or training In terms of what you were saying, we can take credit away from a strategist who makes a "strategic mistake" but usually, it's countered or mitigated by some other factor that made the "mistake" work in their favor anyway. For instance, with Sandra, ASSUMING the T boot was a mistake (which personally I think is up for great debate and is far from a verified "mistake"), 1 thing we know as FACT was that the move worked out for her. And why did it work out for her? Because Sandra was well positioned at that point given her non-threat UTR status as a "weak female" who made the merge. So assuming, didn't specifically boot T knowing all that (which again, is not really supported at all) and as conscious strategy, we still wouldn't be able to knock her too significantly, because she'd "luck" out similarly in various other scenarios, assuming this "mistake" happened at the merge again. That is why I favor results over even "strategy". Strategy is a means to an end (results or winning). Strategy is not the end itself, despite what many people think and mistakenly believe. My winners ranking doesn't judged best strategy only, because that only gives us an incomplete picture. Strategy is only the Outwit part of Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast. All are very important and significant, although Outwit is often hailed as the best and respected the most by the fans In short, if Survivor were like chess, it'd be 1 thing. It's not even like poker, because of its physical nature. It might resemble a sport more, since sports involve strategy as well. Sometimes, to me, it seems like you're saying Shaq isn't as good of a player as Van Exel, because he's not as much of a planner or strategist. Disclaimer: I know, it wasn't a perfect analogy. From my POV, it's like, "Okay yeah, but it doesn't matter. Shaq is better based on results and in this case, his physical ability or inherent demographic stature which makes him better in a game like basketball which favors height". In this case, Ethan is sort of like a Shaq. Not necessarily the best strategist, but quite frankly, he doesn't have to be. He's smart enough to go far each time as he proved in ASS over a better strategist like Tina. His inherent demographic makes him more suited to win this game more often, due to the nature and luck of the game
Yeah, that's what I've always said about my ranking. I'm ranking the most SUCCESSFUL player or the one who seems like the most likely to win Survivor over and over again in a variety of circumstances due to their skill set (which is not limited to JUST strategy which people tend to favor). That context (RESULTS) is more important to me than the gross weighting of strategy that people use in their evaluations to determine who the best players are in Survivor I remember this from your original thread, and it's still one of the areas where I most strongly disagree with you. I understand your position of "perfection bias" and I agree to some extent, as what I said above shows (I think Rafe is a "better" player than Heidik, for example, even if he didn't play as "perfectly"), but I just can't comprehend the thinking that mistakes don't matter - or that we get too hung up on them. I do NOT think Rafe is a better player than Heidik. Heidik's strength was Rafe's weakness--cold hard rationality, game focus, and the ability to make the tough decisions when it counts. Game focus is 1 of the biggest factors that all the winners have in common for the most part When comparing players, I don't see what else could be the driving comparison: who made the most mistakes. If someone made mistakes but got lucky to win, I don't see how they can be seen as a "better" player than one who didn't. It doesn't necessarily make them a "worse" player, but with the short-term information we have, I feel like the player who made a lot of mistakes has to be ranked lower than the one who didn't. Put another way, my 3 main issues with "perfection bias" is: (1) The identifying of what constitutes a "mistake" and "perfection". A lot of times, a move is very ambiguous in nature based on contradictory "common sense" and a "result" that flies right in the face of it. So then, I ask that we re-examine the "common sense" and really see if that person make a "mistake" or not (2) "Perfection" favors winners who had easier competition who never really challenged their position in the game or who had so much luck on their side that they had complete control the entire game with minimal hiccups. There is a tendency for people to give too much benefit-of-the-doubt to that person that they are a genius with manipulative magic powers that can completely make puppets out of all those people, when data like ASS flies right in the face of that kind of conclusion and idealization process (3) "Perfection bias" is another way of saying "strategic bias" in a sense. Usually, "mistakes" are the result of some "strategic" mistake. But as I already noted, Survivor is not a glorified chess game. It involves a lot more Survivor winning factors than just strategy. So, those who made mistakes and usually did well, likely have some compensatory quality or skill that allowed them to survive, despite a mistake, which if anything, shows how powerful they truly are as a player to be able to make mistakes and get away with it. It might be physical skill like Terry, Ozzy, and even Heidik. Or it might be demographic like Sandra Of course the best/most skilled player doesn't always win, and that random twists, etc. can influence the game quite a bit; I don't think I've seen anyone argue otherwise. I'm not sure I see your point with this, though. What does this have to do with analyzing a player's skill as a strategist, unless you are going to argue that luck is some sort of unquantifiable skill. As Kirblar put it, I'm not saying people have the ability to affect probability fields in their favor with magic powers Scarlet Witch. However, by virtue of their demographic position and the luck of the game format, there are times when someone's inherent qualities gives them greater advantages than others, so it sort of is an unquantifiable skill. This goes beyond their ability as a strategist, and is a key luck factor, which is why you can't necessarily separate luck and skill. For instance, Tina was able to leverage her motherly powers, because of the specific conditions that were Outback. That season occurred right after "villain" Hatch won his game. People wanted a more opposite winner, and Tina fit that mold. She was female and she was sweet, and that likely factored into the final jury decision as well on some level. Now, I'm not saying that's why Tina won or was necessarily key to her victory. We don't know. But it's certainly a luck factor that needs to be examined and considered and would be relevant to the game. I can totally see how format luck like that could have increased her strategic options and malleability of her competitors. It can't just be separated from Tina's strategy either, since her planning was informed by the previous season Borneo, her life experience as a mother and sweet person, and the specific context she was dealing with out there in Outback. I mean, theoretically, we COULD separate luck and skill, but most times, it's not so easily distinguished and separated in practice due to the overlap Luck up to the point of the decision-making affects strategy in that it influences the information that is processed by the player. But I don't consider the results caused by a strategic decision luck unless the results were not what was expected, in which case I don't consider them in examining the decision. This is how I think luck, if not eliminated, can be pushed aside to some extent when discussing strategy/skill: by analyzing a player's decision in the context of what happened up to that point, and by comparing a player's reason for making the move with the expected result. You can push luck to the side for trying to separate it from planning and to a lesser extent strategy, but not from winning, which I think should be the main goal of all WINNER rankings. If you want a STRATEGY ranking, then that's different. You have to look at the proper attributes and evaluative markers when discussing these topics, and that's my main disagreement with a ranking like SS's as well as others, especially when the throw ASS out as relevant data
Results would still be the primary information here. But in this case, we're using the well-known fact or result that Brandon did not want to work with Frank as our main guiding evaluation, NOT Lex survived over Kelly G. so he is better. I have always said context is important for informing results. I have constantly said that I am not just going with a 1-dimensional, "Results pwn all explanations" theory. Kirblar likes to say that I rank people based on: 1 > 2 > 3 > 4, and I actually have never stated such a thing at all. I DO think that people tend to disregard finishing placement and other such results as significant indicators of skill though. But yeah, context definitely matters most Basically, I agree with you on this the Lex fiasco, but I still don't think that invalidates the use of "results" are our primary driver, because I've already stated multiple times that results are informed by context, and both need to be considered in tandem. When in doubt and dealing with ambiguity though, results are often better at giving us a more accurate picture of what possibly might've happened though And example of where the result provides information that is useful would be Tina booting Jerri in Outback. At the time, I thought it was unecessarily risky; the result, however, along with subsequent interviews and commentaries, show me that Tina had such a firm grasp on every single person in the game that the actual expected outcome of her decision was different from what it seemed to be on television. I now think the decision to boot Jerri is one of the best plays Tina made. In this case, however, I don't think of it as "It worked, so it wasn't a mistake" - I think of it as "It wasn't a mistake, which is why it worked." It's totally different from the Lex example. I agree with you on that distinction, and see--you use "results" too. I think you use it too selectively though, which indicates a bias You articulated it well. Basically, while some of you (especially that asshat Kirblar) THINK I've been saying, "It worked, so it wasn't a mistake". I've really been saying, "It wasn't a mistake, which is why it worked" However, just to be clear, both Lex and Tina's moves operated on certain assumptions, each of which involved "risk". In Tina's case, her "risk" and "assumption" was reasonable, but it was still a risk. Had she been playing with loose cannons, which you can't possibly predict with 100% certainty, it could've ended her game. Now, I wouldn't fault her for playing with those kind of irrational individuals who'd kill their own game, because that would be "bad luck". In Lex's case, he was helped by a "loose cannon". Basically, each and every person is not necessarily going to be a self-interested rational player, and there are times when you have no way of predicting who is going to be what type of player until it's too late. I don't fault players for making that assumption though--hoping that others will be rational and predicting their moves based on that. I think that is a reasonable management of risk. If there is no way of identifying a loose cannon or irrational player, then I do not knock someone who made the mistake of allying with that kind of player and having their game tanked in that way. However, to be clear, they did take a risk and to a very minor extent, you can blame their loss on their assumptions. This is why some people blame Yul for trusting Candice for instance, but he actually took an even smaller risk than Tina took in trusting someone like Liz who came from an entirely different tribe. So basically, those who knock Yul (or anyone for that matter) for a reasonable assumption need to apply that same kind of criticism to all players. And each and every player who has made an alliance and relied on someone else to any extent has taken similar types of risk, made certain types of assumptions, and trusted people to a limited but significant degree
Oh sorry. Yeah, it's kinda like, "Join the club" lol . There was a lot of criticism in the earlier days, and everyone was an indistinguishable mass to me at the time, so sorry that I didn't
remember you
BTW SS, just so you know, I still have problems seeing the rest of the thread, so please re-post it or something, so I can see it! Thanks. I only see a weird black line for the re-posts you did. I don't know if it's working for other people though |
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Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
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RavuRules wrote: To be fair to Tina, booting Elizabeth over Jerri would of been more detrimental then leaving the door open then the coup you say is possible. While it was possible, booting Jerri convinced Elizabeth that Tina was a "good person" and thus, she wouldnt betray her unless it was between her and Rodger. I think that Boston Rob, Dreamz, or any other of the people you mentioned would have been marginalized and/or booted long ago, by Tina.
Last Edited By: Dr Will Hatch two point oh
10/24/07 10:49 AM.
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